Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The case for a soft landing in the economy just got another boost
    I’m noticing many price drops at the grocery store. Things like eggs, bread and yogurt have dropped a lot at my store. However, prices are still high for sodas, cereal, meats, beer, etc. I have no qualms about buying generic brands or skipping items when prices get too high for me. I have totally quit buying name brand cereals for that reason. I am not paying $7 for a box of Cheerios, particularly when the store brand is only $2.50. Likewise, we seldom eat beef nowadays. There are healthier options for less money.
  • Bonds: Why you should invest in short-term bonds over longer-term securities.
    Diversification, duration, and experience don't guarantee better risk-adjusted performance, especially in markets as we had since early 2022.
    You can own 10 bond funds and still have higher volatility + lower performance.
    The article predicts stability for the coming months to 2024. The Fed funds watch tool predicts mostly a stable 5.25-5.5% until March 2024.
    Even if a fund has experienced managers, they can't do too much. Most lost money in 2022.
    Sometimes, special funds do better than most.
    Example:
    DODIX+PIMIX are great funds + more flexible in their categories.
    Since 01-01-2022 both are down. RCTIX is up with lower volatility
    (https://schrts.co/hieByVgX)
    YTD: RCTIX still made more with lower volatility. See the chart (https://schrts.co/nWzudGjU)
    I can add 5 more funds with different duration + bond ratings + flexibility and all 7 still made less than RCTIX. There are better options than RCTIX YTD.
  • The case for a soft landing in the economy just got another boost
    @davidmoran
    So what's the overall message of the article (hiiden behind paywall etc)?
    Noting that Kraft-Heinz and Kellog's prices have risen by 25-30% over the past two years....you might scoff at this but I can tell you that cost increase inputs continue...I haven't seen any cost reductions at the grocery store....
    Baseball Fan
    - did you try privacy / incognito browser sessions using various browsers?
    - I see many price drops. Costco meats, MarketBasket (big NE discount chain) cereals, milk everywhere, fresh produce (corn locally picked; blueberries)
  • Janus Henderson Net Zero Transition Resources ETF to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1500604/000119312523208135/d120852d497.htm
    497 1 d120852d497.htm 497
    Janus Detroit Street Trust
    Janus Henderson Net Zero Transition Resources ETF
    Supplement dated August 10, 2023
    to Currently Effective Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    The Board of Trustees of Janus Detroit Street Trust (the “Trust”) approved a plan to liquidate and terminate Janus Henderson Net Zero Transition Resources ETF (“JZRO” or the “Fund”), effective on or about October 24, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”). After the close of business on or about October 16, 2023, the Fund will no longer accept creation orders. Trading in the Fund will be halted prior to market open on or about October 20, 2023. Proceeds of the liquidation are currently scheduled to be sent to shareholders on or about October 26, 2023. Termination of the Fund is expected to occur as soon as practicable following the liquidation.
    Prior to and through the close of trading on NYSE Arca, Inc. (“NYSE”) on October 19, 2023, the Fund will undertake the process of winding down and liquidating its portfolio. This process may result in the Fund holding cash and securities that may not be consistent with its investment objectives and strategies. Furthermore, during the time between market open on October 20, 2023 and the Liquidation Date, because the shares will no longer be traded on NYSE, there may not be a trading market for the Fund’s shares.
    Shareholders may sell shares of the Fund on NYSE until the market close on October 19, 2023 and may incur typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer. Shares held as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed for cash at the then current net asset value. Proceeds of the redemption will be paid through the broker-dealer with whom you hold shares of the Fund. Shareholders will generally recognize a capital gain or loss on the redemptions. The Fund may or may not, depending upon its circumstances, pay one or more dividends or other distributions prior to or along with the redemption payments. Please consult your personal tax advisor about the potential tax consequences.
  • Paychecks, Not Portfolios: Why Income is the Key to Financial Success
    Income investing is a myth that has been promoted for years. In many cases, the writer wants to sell you something. Income investing as someone's main/first criterion has no legs in reality because TR=total return (performance) is the ultimate indicator. TR includes everything and all distributions are part of it. Risk-adjusted performance is the first thing you look for, after that, you can look for high distributions.
    I have been discussing HIGH INCOME since 2010.
    First came ATT,VZ,IBM as a must vs SPY,QQQ. A simple chart can prove how pathetic ATT,VZ,IBM were since 2010.
    Then came MLP which lost more than half.
    Then came fixed income CEFs where they made a total of 6-7% in the last 5 years while SPY made over 70%.
    Lastly, I'm not against high distributions, I'm against using it as someone's main criterion.
    At times like this, the young people say:
    "Sir, this is a Wendys."
    Older folks might remember what Emily Litella used to say.
  • Paychecks, Not Portfolios: Why Income is the Key to Financial Success
    We know that compounding on investments made early in one’s lifetime makes a huge difference in one’s financial success. Even though I was a very low earner when I started my career in 1970, we still were able to buy a house in 1973 based on my income alone. Interest rates were around 4%. I borrowed the 5% down payment from my father. My employer, despite paying me a pittance, paid 10% into my retirement account at TIAA. With one kid, one starter home, one car, and a frugality drummed into us by our Depression-era parents, we eventually realized quite amazing gains on what we honestly did not know would become our sources of “wealth.”
    In today’s economy, as @Anna aptly points out, the young couple setting out on a path similar to ours, face overwhelming obstacles. The price of a starter home, in almost any part of the country, now presents the biggest barrier, to say nothing of the huge down payment. What employer these days would be paying 10% of base salary into retirement? It seems trite to say that our kids won’t do as well as their parents, a complete reversal of what had been accepted wisdom about the American economy. The American Dream, for a great many of our brethren, is nothing more than a chimera. The participants on MFO, IMHO, have a whole lot to be grateful for. I’m not sure that my kids, who are between 25 and 43, will be able to feel secure in their retirements.
  • Moody's downgrades 10 US banks
    My preference is to use a local institution for checking and direct deposit.
    I'm a member of a locally-based credit union with many nearby branches.
    If any issues arise, I can readily speak to someone in person.
    Over the years, I've found that CUs generally offer better terms for loans, credit cards,
    and checking/savings accounts than many brick-and-mortar banks.
    Their customer service is also superior to big banks in my experience.
    My credit union provided a Medallion signature guarantee when I transferred
    a Roth IRA from one institution to another.
    Note: I also have an Ally online savings account.
    Same here. They do banking basics very well and efficiently. They're not out to beat quarterly numbers and 'analyst estimates' or start making tons of money for themselves. I've been a member of my CU since 1995 and for the most part I remain very happy with them.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/9/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/9/23
    Bullish remained the top sentiment (44.7%; above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (25.5%; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (29.8%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +19.2% (above average). Investor concerns: Inflation (still high); economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (76+ weeks, 2/24/22-now); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were down, bonds up, oil up sharply, gold down, dollar flat. Moody's downgrades several regional banks due to concerns about real estate/CRE exposures, deposit flights, credit card delinquencies. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    LINK
  • Bonds: Why you should invest in short-term bonds over longer-term securities.
    SA article (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4625927-federal-funds-rate-is-going-down-what-about-bond-prices?mailingid=32345426&messageid=2850&serial=32345426.3245)
    I can read all SA articles for free for years and never paid anything.
    Quote (excerpts)
    "Summary
    The Federal Reserve will likely cut rates next year.
    Rate cuts might impact bond prices, depending on their magnitude, and on market expectations.
    Market expectations are very dovish, and more dovish than the Fed. Higher bond prices seem unlikely.
    A look at federal reserve rates, expectations thereof, and their possible impact on bond prices follows.
    .................................
    Investor Takeaway
    Investors expect significant federal reserve interest rate cuts in the coming years, and are pricing treasuries and other bonds accordingly. Due to this, small rate cuts will likely have limited impact on bond rates and prices.
    Under these conditions, I would personally invest in T-bills and other short-term bonds over longer-term securities. These have higher yields and lower interest rate risk. Longer-term securities yield more, are riskier, and are pricing-in an aggressive set of fed hikes already."
  • WSJ: Banks’ Problems Aren’t Over, According to the Bond Market
    Following are excerpts, heavily edited for brevity, from a current Wall Street Journal report:
    Moody’s [downgraded] the credit ratings of 10 banks and put others under review, or giving their ratings a negative outlook. Credit ratings are very important for banks, which fund themselves partly with deposits, but also by selling bonds.
    But the ratings moves are a reminder that many of the core issues revealed by the crisis this year—such as the risks posed by higher interest rates—are only beginning to be addressed. And one risk that investors can’t afford to ignore is that longer-term interest rates could keep pushing higher, even as the Federal Reserve looks to be pausing its rate hikes.
    However, Moody’s also wrote that it saw some key issues unaddressed by the Fed’s thousand-plus-page proposal.
    Moody’s analysts acknowledged in their Monday report that the Fed’s tougher capital requirements for banks with over $100 billion in assets should be positive for their credit risk, [but also said] that interest-rate risk is “significantly more complicated” than that. For example, there is the diminished value of loans like fixed-rate mortgages—a huge problem for First Republic, for one. In its analysis, Moody’s applied a 15% haircut to the value of banks’ outstanding residential mortgages.
    The bond market’s focus on worst-case scenarios may explain the gap between the performance of many lenders’ debts versus their shares. In theory, higher capital requirements coming for many banks ought to provide more comfort for bondholders, who focus more on existential risk, than shareholders, who should be worried about the drag on banks’ returns on equity from higher equity levels.
    But this security cushion isn’t what markets appear to be reflecting. Across regional banks with A ratings, though their bonds have rallied in recent weeks, investors are still demanding a lot more return to own them than they were prior to SVB’s collapse. The gap between those banks’ senior bond yields versus Treasurys was still about 50% wider than on March 8 as of Monday.
    It is a relief that banks have found a number of ways to stabilize their earnings and rebuild some capital, but bond market jitters show there is still a lot more work to be done.

    Note: text emphasis in above was added.
  • The case for a soft landing in the economy just got another boost
    Following are excerpts from that article, edited for brevity:
    The "overall message" is that food prices have greatly increased globally due to a number of reasons, and that the US is actually doing better than most:
    image
    Given that huge rise in global prices, how could prices in the United States not have gone up a lot? Indeed, there have been big food price rises around the world, for example, in Europe:
    image
    So food inflation is mainly a global story. But what caused that global food spike? It seems to have been a perfect storm of adverse events (including actual storms).
    Now, the prices U.S. consumers pay for food haven’t closely tracked the global price index, and in general have gone up by less. But that’s not surprising, because the indexes are measuring somewhat different things. The World Bank is estimating the prices of raw foodstuffs, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics is measuring the prices of purchased foods
    The bottom line is that even though many people would like someone to blame for high grocery prices, it’s really hard to find domestic villains. Despite what the American right claims, Joe Biden didn’t do this. Despite what some on the left would like to believe, neither, at least for the most part, did greedy corporations.
    Sometimes, as the bumper stickers don’t quite say, stuff just happens.
  • The case for a soft landing in the economy just got another boost
    Noting that Kraft-Heinz and Kellog's prices have risen by 25-30% over the past two years....you might scoff at this but I can tell you that cost increase inputs continue...I haven't seen any cost reductions at the grocery store....
    I can’t say. Pretty much grab what I want / need off the store shelves or out of the cooler. Fortunate in that regard perhaps. Not to ignore the tremendous strain inflation must cause for many with low income & large families. Maybe I’m repeating something already mentioned … but there’s a glut of chicken now whereas a year ago there was a shortage. Prices of chic and pork have fallen from what I hear. Point being - Don’t read too much into these individual products that rise and fall … normal supply & demand shifts.
    Corn flakes? How much of a dollar’s worth is in the corn? LOL - Probably less than a dime. Most of the cost is in labor, processing, packaging, distribution, advertising, retail, etc.
    ISTM the food staples (stocks) like the ones mentioned have held up pretty well recently - though I haven’t tracked the ones mentioned. Some have run up nicely on big down days in the S&P.
    (Mentioned that because this is an investing forum)
  • The case for a soft landing in the economy just got another boost
    @davidmoran
    So what's the overall message of the article (hiiden behind paywall etc)?
    Noting that Kraft-Heinz and Kellog's prices have risen by 25-30% over the past two years....you might scoff at this but I can tell you that cost increase inputs continue...I haven't seen any cost reductions at the grocery store....
    Best Regards,
    Baseball Fan
  • T-Bill Coupon-Equivalent Yield
    I bought 52-wk this week after a LONG time. Next week, I am back to rolling into 26-wk.
  • Paychecks, Not Portfolios: Why Income is the Key to Financial Success
    In today's world, I would argue that income after rent is a better measure than income alone. I have numerous college educated young relatives still trying in their 30s to save a down payment on a home. The only successes I see are in Mississippi where my relatives, young adults, are educated and earn enough for a home purchase. Really nice suburban 3-4 bedroom homes in the $200,000 range. Also, lower prices mean lower down payments and families can afford to help out. In the Pacific NW, where I live, young adults face $500,000-$600,000 for just a two-bedroom, one bath home. 20% down is a lot of excess income for saving. So rent, also high, is the leading political issue around young families here. And salaries aren't high enough to compensate for the higher cost of living. I know I didn't have it this hard.
  • Paychecks, Not Portfolios: Why Income is the Key to Financial Success
    Income investing is a myth that has been promoted for years. In many cases, the writer wants to sell you something. Income investing as someone's main/first criterion has no legs in reality because TR=total return (performance) is the ultimate indicator. TR includes everything and all distributions are part of it. Risk-adjusted performance is the first thing you look for, after that, you can look for high distributions.
    I have been discussing HIGH INCOME since 2010.
    First came ATT,VZ,IBM as a must vs SPY,QQQ. A simple chart can prove how pathetic ATT,VZ,IBM were since 2010.
    Then came MLP which lost more than half.
    Then came fixed income CEFs where they made a total of 6-7% in the last 5 years while SPY made over 70%.
    Lastly, I'm not against high distributions, I'm against using it as someone's main criterion.
  • AXS 1.25X NVDA Bear Daily ETF reverse stock split
    NVDA shorts have been killed. But Wall Street made money either way because there are both long NVDL and short NVDS ETFs.
    Reverse-splits are BAD news. They are attempts to bury mistakes; some ETFs may eventually be shut.
    Single stock ETFs are also a BAD idea. Why not just use options?
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=NVDS&compare=NVDL,NVDA&id=p00040965654