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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    Not too long ago we were all talking in a thread about "the market" going sideways for a decade, or more.
    Now we're being told that we should all invest in the 500, like Buffet "advises" his wife to do when he dies. Which sort of misses the point that she is likely to inherit a crap-ton of Berkshire shares, and heaven knows what else. Who is going to tell her to sell all that so she can plunk it all down on the 500?
    Well. I don't have those resources. Sometimes the goal of investing is not to "beat the market" but to preserve capital that can be put to work to sustain a certain level of comfort in retirement.
    As the man said after he fell from the roof:
    image
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    Diversification doesn't guarantee better performance or better risk/SD or better risk-adjusted performance. Being in 10 funds isn't necessarily better than 2 funds. I could be wrong but I can't find any research that proves that more funds are a better choice, no matter the age and goals.
    Having 10 accounts isn't an excuse to own more funds than 5 accounts, because I use the same funds in different accounts.
    There are many ways to Rome. I have learned and changed over the years. I never believed in a static style no matter what.
    I also learned and love the exceptions to many rules and used some of these funds over the years. These funds are unique and scarce. 2 easy ones have been PRWCX+PIMIX. Many don't comfortable investing a big % in one fund, I'm not one of them.
    But, many investors can benefit by using a simple portfolio with just several funds and hardly doing anything and avoiding common mistakes. Here are several examples: https://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio%20
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    I’ve heard it said, and agree, that diversification is a risk management strategy— not a way to achieve high performance. Face it, nobody really knows which markets or sectors will perform better or worse in the future. By diversifying, you are covering more bases. So, you’ll avoid being over exposed in poor performing area while capturing the better performing ones.
    Almost certainly, you can achieve better performance by focusing on only a few areas — if you are skilled or lucky enough to pick the right ones. Not many investors are successful at this approach, which is why most investment advisers will tell people to diversify, diversify, diversify. Another key to this approach is to buy and hold your investments long term. If you are forever chasing winners and selling losers, you stand a good chance of hurting your overall performance. Of course, some investors are better at picking winners and selling losers, and others have a penchant for picking losers and selling winners.
    Buffet’s advice about the S&P is sound, but certainly looks better after the past 15 years. However, there have been periods (eg, 2000-2010) when the S&P did not perform well and you would have greatly improved your overall performance by owning other asset classes, such as foreign stocks, small caps, REITs, etc. For that reason, I prefer total market index funds.
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    @FD - Personal offense? None. But thanks. I appreciate the sentiment.
    From your latest linked article - Why Average Investors Earn Below-Average Market Returns :
    “Investor behavior is illogical and often based on emotion. That does not lead to wise long-term investing decisions.”
    Yes. That’s pretty widely known and has been discussed here before. But it says nothing regarding your earlier (unsupported) assertion, “I have seen a lot more investors who lag the market when they own more funds, I mean over 5-7 funds.”
    In addition to the obvious disconnect between what you asserted earlier and what your linked article says, let’s recognize a few relevant facts.
    - “Average investors” includes all those with workplace defined contribution plans. That’s a lot of people who may have little or no investment interest or experience. And it includes all ages, from young adults buying their first home to folks with 50+ years investing experience. Lately, too, it has come to include the thrill-seeking “meme” crowd with little regard for fundamentals. All these and more fall within the realm of ”average investor”.
    - “Average investors” don’t frequent investment forums like this one. Can’t speak for wherever else you’ve been, but this community represents a select slice of the investing public. Participants possess above average intelligence, are well read and highly motivated. Some have professional backgrounds in finance or financial journalism.
    - To your initial assertion about number of funds … . I will contend that 8-10 high quality funds along the lines of PRWCX or JHQAX should perform as well on average as 1 or 2 equally high quality ones. The number of funds alone does not determine whether one “beats the index.” The overall quality of those holdings may.
    - Indexes carry no cash reserve as funds do. So they have a built-in advantage actively managed portfolios do not possess.. “Tit-for-tat” active will underperform an index.
    - Not all investors want to track or match the S&P’s performance. Some of us are pleased we didn’t lose 18% last year. We’ll sacrifice some future return if it means avoiding such dramatic 1-year losses.
    - Your criticism of owning more than 5-7 funds misses the point that many investors manage several portfolios. I have a Roth, Traditional IRA, and Taxable account. Each is viewed in a different time-frame and tax perspective. Some have long-term portfolios, mid-range ones and short term investments for more immediate needs. Some manage for a spouse. Some have limited-option workplace plans - plus other outside investments.
    Thanks for the linked article. But, since it contained nothing I didn’t already know, I checked the “not helpful” box at the end.
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    I am probably the worse investor at MFO. My ignorance/incompetence is, or should be, notorious. Yet I am among the "perfect". My before RMD is more than sufficient so RMD (before tax) amount gets reinvested. I have no debt. So far, at age 74, I am independent with a little help from the delivery guys who I compensate handsomely. So, yes, right now, I am perfect. But, maybe, not by anyone else's definition.
    IMO there is no 'perfect' investing strategy or style. Everyone has their own tolerances, pain points, goals, and desires. I for one don't care if I keep pace with the SPX or 'only' make 9% per year while not worrying and still sleeping well at night. If I lose less than the SPX in a down period, I'll still sleep well even if I'm in the red for a bit. By contrast, some people (mainly institutions needing bragging rights and TV-trading retail traders) feel like failures if they don't track or beat the market and lie awake with each 2% down-wiggle in the index. Each to our own.
    (I've said the same thing, or variants of this for years in active trading forums/chats ... there is no 'Holy Grail' technical indicator that's always perfect, just like there's no one investing strategy/tactic that works 100% of the time w/o losses.)
    It's also why I don't like index funds. You track 'the market' but many times, like now, the 'market' returns are really only from the top 5-10 names. So if I was looking, I'd just own them and avoid the drag.
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    Hank, I didn't say that I was an expert or that 15 years make me an expert. You made up these conclusions. I have been posting here for years and will keep posting, I never told anyone they are MISPLACED anywhere as you did.
    I state my opinion, how about stating yours? Anytime you don't agree with my statement, you are welcome to do so with data and explanations.
    Here is why most lag the SP500, one source (https://www.thebalancemoney.com/why-average-investors-earn-below-average-market-returns-2388519). There are many more.
    Investment sites are for discussing different ideas and opinions without attacking anyone personally. If I offended you in any way, I apologize. Let me know.
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    FD - Please use quotation marks around or italicize my words when you quote them so readers know you’re quoting me. Thanks.
    To your point … If hanging around discussion boards 15 years makes someone an expert, than over a dozen here, including myself, would qualify. You’re very good at making broad sweeping critical remarks about those you encounter on such sites. One is left to question your motive.
    Regarding your previous assertion: “I have seen a lot more investors who lag the market when they own more funds, I mean over 5-7 funds.” One wonders why you don’t simply return to those other discussion boards you frequented for 15 years where you gleaned the data? You’re misplaced here because the data you profess to possess did not come from this board. As I said previously, the vast majority on this site are not inclined to post personal performance histories.
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    @dtconroe: I am intrigued by your explanation of how you use of CDs and their multiple maturity dates. I spend what some would probably call an excessive amount of my free time juggling MFs and ETFs. However, I did put $10K into a CD for the very first time a few months back. Most of my cash is in MM funds, namely SWVXX. Do you not spend any time on the equity side of your portfolio in favor of monitoring what appears to my inexperienced eye a complex operation devoted to CDs, ladders, and redemptions? For my part, I am content with the pretty generous yield on my MM stash, which allows me to buy and sell assets quickly and effortlessly, without worrying if I'm getting the last 1/10% out of the dough. FWIIW, I recall hearing it said about a stock trader in old days when stocks were priced in fractions that, "He'd sell his grandmother for an eighth." I guess I can accept my mileage varying a bit lest I become become too obsessive.
    BenWP, I am 75 years old, devoted to preserving my accumulations with moderate TR, so my investments are relatively low risk now. Before retirement, I was very aggressive with a ton of Equity oriented holdings (Sector holdings, Value and Growth Equity Funds, some balanced funds, Global and International Equity holdings, etc.). After I retired, my investment emphasis changed dramatically to lower risk funds, focusing on Bond Oefs with low SD and solid momentum--my favorites were multisector and nontraditonal and HY bond oefs. In March of 2022, I sold everything, was totally in MMs, and started investing in CDs as my chosen option for risk management to produce guaranteed income. CDs require a special set of investing skills, and I chose to spread my cash around to multitude of CDs, in a short term laddering system. 90% of my CDs are in six figure CDs, but I do have a small number of 5 figure CDs. All of my CDs stay within the FDIC insured amounts, but my CD selections are more short term (2 years or less) with banks with high quality ratings. At 75, I don't have that many years left, have plenty of money to live comfortably, and have no interest in taking "unnecessary" risks, and am more focused on a retirement life, with minimal stress, and as much joy as I can muster.
    I wish you well, but I suspect you are in a different life situation, with a different set of investing objectives!
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    Hank: Are you an investment professional? Where did you come by these individual’s performance histories? Must be from somewhere else. It’s quite rare for anyone here to ever post their annual returns. I don't.
    FD: this is an observation after posting for over 15 years on several sites. I can't find where I posted my portfolio performance here.
    Do professionals make more money than the SP500 over a long time frame? Bogle and Malkiel (Random Walk) proved it already decades ago that VOO/VTI beat most fund pros over a longer time.
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    Simplification is a valuable, important consideration. My wife is somewhat and sometimes interested in the investing stuff, but mostly about passwords, to sign-in. The tactical and strategic stuff, not so much. So, we have ALMOST all of our eggs in one basket: My TRAD IRA with TRP. Brokerage joint account at TRP--- despite some of its limitations. Her own TRAD IRA is at Bruce. And within TRP, there are currently 5 funds and 5 single-stocks. Manageable. Easy to consolidate, when the time comes. She's 9 and a half years from being able to "raid" her IRA without penalty.
  • Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund
    Supplement Dated July 31, 2023, to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated May 25, 2023
    Important Changes to Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund (the Fund)
    Effective immediately, Michael L. Hong will no longer serve as a co-portfolio manager
    of Wellington Management Company LLP’s (Wellington Management) portion of the Fund.
    Elizabeth H. Shortsleeve will continue to manage Wellington Management’s portion of the Fund.
    The Fund’s investment objective, strategies, and policies remain unchanged.
    Link
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    @BenWP- it's really not all that complicated, at least the way that I do it-
    • Take a guess at how long I might be still around. Say, hopefully, at least a couple of years.
    • (Alternatively, determine a date when I might be needing cash for something.)
    • Decide how much overall that I want to invest in CDs or Treasuries.
    • OK, now I've got a reasonable horizon to think about.
    • Take a look at Schwab or other brokerage, plug in the desired specs: duration, non-callable, desired interest.
       (There's a page for setting up the specs. I use Schwab here as an example, but I'm sure that other
        brokerages have a similar setup.)
    • All of the banks listed will be FDIC insured.
    • Generally speaking, in a market like this one, the longer out you look the less the interest rate will be.
    • OK, now just buy CDs:
        • each one for whatever amount is comfortable for a single bank. (You're FDIC insured, but spread out
           the chance of problems.)
        • each one for a particular maturity-
                say maybe 3 mths, 6mths, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24. etc. That's your "ladder".
    • Now you've got an income stream with payments coming in predictably.
    • Additionally, there'll also be interest coming in at various times, depending on the CD terms.
    • OK, at 3 mths the first one matures. Then you decide whether to buy a new one or use the cash for
       something else. The interest rates available at that time may have increased or decreased.
    • Etc. for the remaining maturities. The procedure is similar for short-term Treasuries.
    • That's about it. If I can figure it out, I guarantee that can't be very hard!
    (If you're FD, none of this is worth your time.)
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    @hank. BF?
    Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790)
    On Humility
    - “Humility makes great men twice honourable “
    - “To be humble to superiors is a duty, to equals courtesy, to inferiors nobleness”
    - “If thou hast wit and learning, add to it wisdom and modesty.”
    On money
    “If you would know the value of money, go and try to borrow some; he that goes a- borrowing goes a- sorrowing"
    ”Rather go to bed without dinner than to rise in debt”
    “A Penny Saved Is a Penny Earned”
    “He that is of the opinion money will do everything may well be suspected of doing everything for money”
    Many of these proverbs appeared in Franklin’s Poor Richard’s Almanac.:
    ”The Almanack contained the calendar, weather, poems, sayings and astronomical and astrological information that a typical almanac of the period would contain. Franklin also included the occasional mathematical exercise, and the Almanack from 1750 features an early example of demographics. It is chiefly remembered, however, for being a repository of Franklin's aphorisms and proverbs, many of which live on in American English. These maxims typically counsel thrift and courtesy, with a dash of cynicism.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poor_Richard's_Almanack
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    “I have seen a lot more investors who lag the market when they own more funds, I mean over 5-7 funds.”
    Are you an investment professional? Where did you come by these individual’s performance histories? Must be from somewhere else. It’s quite rare for anyone here to ever post their annual returns. I don't. Can think of only 3 or 4 members who did state their ‘22 performance. For longer periods - none that I’m aware of. Your logic is questionable here anyway. The S&P fell over 18% in 2022. Certainly, “leading” the S&P with a loss of “only 15%” would not have been a sign of superior intelligence or investment acumen.
    I think Buffet is really cool. I’ve read dozens of his quotes. His bottom line seems to be to do your due diligence and buy companies you would like to own forever. He often compares buying a company to planting a tree. Sit back and watch it grow. But it is also true that for those who lack his ability or resources to research a company in depth, he thinks index investing is best. Temper that, however, with his quote: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." That means Buffet does believe investors should take into consideration market valuations and public sentiment in deciding when to buy or sell equities.
    Finally, there’s Buffett’s Rule #22 - ”If you want to invest well, don’t be a know-it-all.”
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    The FDIC coverage limit is 250k, so of course we stay inside that. Why trust any one bank when there are so many to use? Yes, I have to purchase many of them. No, there's only one institution to deal with: Schwab.
    We've all been informed numerous times that you're a brilliant multizillionaire, and we're really not terribly impressed. Perhaps some of us are, also. Maybe you should change your user name to BS1000.
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    wow, only 50-100K in each CD? I would have to purchase many of them + deal with so many different institutions. The more details I read about the less I want to do it.
    Disclaimer: I never owned CDs or treasuries.
  • CD Rates Going Forward
    Yes, I never put more than 50k in one bank.
  • Munger on "diworsification." (link.)
    Buffett's investment process is focused on purchasing companies with competitive advantages
    (wide moats) at a fair price and holding them "forever."
    He believes that at least 98% of people who invest should extensively diversify and not trade.
    FWIW, I find it intriguing when individuals reference Buffett even though
    their investment process is diametrically opposed to his.
    Maybe the word BASED isn't the best but I explained what I do and it all came to me from Buffett. I read other books and articles but none lead me to these ideas.
    Diversification according to Buffett is the SP500, not 5-10-20 funds which is how most invest. I disagree with "extensively diversify" part.
    https://news.yahoo.com/warren-buffett-investing-advice-thats-beaten-most-pros-for-12-straight-years-100054380.html
    Quote"I recommend the S&P 500 index fund and have for a long, long time to people," billionaire investor Warren Buffett said at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholders meeting last May.
    BTW, Bogle also recommends 2 or 3 funds VTI/VOO + (maybe international index) + BND.
    The funny thing is that almost nobody buys and holds the above for decades, but they all know what diversification means. I have seen a lot more investors who lag the market when they own more funds, I mean over 5-7 funds. Generally, more funds = more trading = lower performance. This is a generic statement not toward anybody.