”Watch out for the mutual funds, though."

Depends which funds I suppose. Some of the miners (p/m and industrial) were flat or up slightly. But some of the p/m miners got hit pretty hard today. Gold actually gained a tad. A few funds I track (but don’t necessarily own): VWINX -.56% / PRWCX -.89% / HSGFX +.74% While not technically a fund, BRK.B held up pretty well, loosing just -47%. Bonds and bond funds generally fell today, adding to the losses a balanced portfolio might otherwise sustain on such a down day. As mentioned previously, I no longer share information re my own investments.

The 1-year at 5% is tempting.

Thank you. Great to visualize the inverted yield curve.
Short duration are reaching close to 5%. As of today, 6 mo and 12 mo T bills yield 4.98 and 4.99%, respectively.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202302
Today, new auction has been posted for 13 week, 26 week and 52 weeks T bills, 2 years, 3 years, and 5 years T notes. The expected yields are posted in major brokerages. Whichever treasuries you decide to purchase, you need to place your order by this Sunday and it will be executed by the following Tuesday.

Since Norfolk Southern's derailment on February 3rd in East Palestine, Ohio, the stock has fallen about 6.5% while Union Pacific has dropped 4.8% and CSX 3%. The poisoning of an entire community with PVC and other carcinogens seems to be worth about 2% to 3% of the company's value relative to its peers.
https://npr.org/2023/02/16/1157333630/east-palestine-ohio-train-derailment

Several cars were carrying vinyl chloride, a cancer-causing substance. Other cars held other hazardous substances
Five of the derailed cars were carrying vinyl chloride, a manmade substance that is a key ingredient in PVC, the hard plastic resin used widely in construction and health care.
At room temperature, vinyl chloride is a sweet-smelling colorless gas. It is typically transported in the form of a compressed liquid.
Inhalation of vinyl chloride can cause respiratory symptoms like shortness of breath, along with neurological symptoms like headaches and dizziness. Chronic exposure to high levels of vinyl chloride has been associated with liver damage and cancer, according to the CDC.
This week, the EPA released a partial Norfolk Southern manifest that detailed other hazardous chemicals on the train, which included ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, ethylhexyl acrylate and isobutylene. All can cause irritation or neurological symptoms like dizziness and headaches.

https://thenation.com/article/economy/rail-workers-say-industry-courts-derailments-in-quest-for-profits/

Rail workers have insisted for years that the staffing cuts that rail carriers have pursued to pad their bottom line would create a safety crisis in the industry. “Through PSR [Precision Scheduled Railroading], they’ve cut staffing levels, not just for the operating side, but for maintenance…and basically all crafts across the line,” Doering said. These acute staff shortages also mean that freight lines are subject to incomplete or infrequent inspections, compounding the risks of environmental disaster.

https://nytimes.com/article/ohio-train-derailment.html

Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, a Democrat, weighed in on Tuesday, criticizing Norfolk Southern in a public letter for “inaccurate information and conflicting modeling” of the impact of the derailment.
Residents of East Palestine are losing trust in state officials and in Norfolk Southern, saying that no one has clearly communicated the scale of the disaster and the public health threats it could pose months or years later.
On Wednesday evening, hundreds of East Palestine residents crowded a school gym for an informational meeting about the derailment. They peppered local and state officials with questions about how such a disaster could be avoided and whether their water was truly safe to drink. Representatives from Norfolk Southern declined to attend.
Residents were evacuated and face uncertainty.
Just after the derailment, 1,500 to 2,000 residents of East Palestine were told to evacuate. Schools were closed for the week, along with some roads.

https://nytimes.com/2023/02/15/us/ohio-train-derailment-anxiety.html

“I just don’t want to be diagnosed with cancer or something 10, 15 years down the line because of their mistake,” said Therese Vigliotti, 47, who was outdoors the night that the chemicals were burned and said that her tongue still feels scalded and that she had seen blood in her stool for two days.
Most of the anger so far has been directed at Norfolk Southern, with elected officials publicly taking the rail company to task. Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio, a Republican, called it “absurd” that Norfolk Southern had not been required to notify local officials about the train’s contents before it came through because of its classification, calling for congressional action and dangling the threat of legal action should the company fail to pay for the cleanup.
In a public letter, Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, a Democrat, denounced Norfolk Southern for its “poor handling” of the derailment, charging that “prioritizing an accelerated and arbitrary timeline to reopen the rail line injected unnecessary risk and created confusion in the process.”

Mine without the first 6.5 letters... Only have few hundreds shares. Fotflmao

****Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just received a dividend check for $205,881,319.79 from Tim Cook****
Compounding powers exponentially growth overtime
Maybe very good in 5 10 yrs....buy and hold
Think is good to add more $SCHD extremely long term hold?
Ty

AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/15/23
For the week ending on 2/15/23, neutral became the top sentiment (37.1%; above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (28.8%; below average); bullish became the middle sentiment (34.1%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +5.3% (below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; cryptos; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (51+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds down, oil flat, gold down, dollar up. Bull-Bear spread remained positive for another week. There were balloons of mysterious origins that were all shot down with missiles. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/936

@Hank. Re: TAIL. isn’t that managed by the great Meb Faber?

From the Prospectus: “Mebane T. Faber is the portfolio manager for the Fund and has managed the Fund since its inception in February 2016.”
@larryB - I’ve dug up a fairly recent interview with Faber for you. To be clear, I have little knowledge of his investment career or philosophy, nor do I own any of his funds as of this writing. I track TAIL along with roughly a dozen other funds for whatever insights I can glean about the markets. i would never recommend this fund to anyone.

Buying a few more shares in NHYDY Norsk Hydro, at Market Open, 16th Feb, '23. The stock is down by more than -7% in the past 5 days alone. Latest earnings reported were 10 cents, but 12 cents was the consensus estimate. Mr. Market was disappointed. And Mr. Market ALWAYS overreacts. Also uncle Joe and the Congress are pushing "made in America." Dunno if that includes NHYDY. They have a presence here, Stateside...... Dividend is not due until May. RSI (14) is 39........EDIT: Alas, the booger rose, rather than falling to my target-price on my Limit Order. Guess I'll adjust it to "Good Till Canceled."

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1355064/000158064223000908/dayhagen_497.htm
Day Hagan Smart Value Fund
Class A: DHQAX Class C: DHQCX Class I: DHQIX
(the “Fund”)
Supplement dated February 15, 2023 to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated November 1, 2022.
______________________________________________________________________________
The Board of Trustees of Mutual Fund Series Trust has concluded that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund cease operations. The Board has determined to close the Fund and redeem all outstanding shares on March 17, 2023 (“Liquidation Date”).
Effective immediately, the Fund will not accept any new investments and may no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Fund will begin liquidating its portfolio and will invest in cash equivalents until all shares have been redeemed. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional shares, unless you have previously requested payment in cash. Shares of the Fund are otherwise not available for purchase.
ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED OR EXCHANGED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO MARCH 17, 2023, WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OR ACCOUNT OF RECORD. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact the Fund at 1-877-329-4246 (877-DAY-HAGN).
IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus, any Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information for the Fund, each dated November 1, 2022, which provide information that you should know about the Fund before investing. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1-877-329-4246 (877-DAY-HAGN) or by writing to 4221 North 203rd Street, Suite 100, Elkhorn, Nebraska 68022.
Please retain this Supplement for future reference.

Congress passed a massive year-end spending bill that included enhancements to retirement savings known as the SECURE Act 2.0. These changes build on the SECURE Act of 2019 and address issues that were not part of the original act, with the ultimate goal of increasing retirement preparedness for Americans.
McLean is hosting a webinar to provide insight into the meaningful changes brought by this new legislation. Moderated by Brian Bass, you will hear from McLean thought leaders Wade Pfau, Rob Cordeau, and Jason Rizkallah as we discuss what has changed and what financial planning opportunities are possible due to SECURE Act 2.0.
Topics include:
Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)
529 College Savings Plans
Qualified retirement plans - both Traditional and Roth
Charitable planning
SEP and SIMPLE Roth accounts
Employer contributions to Roth accounts
Updates to benefit retirement savings

webinar secure act 2.0

@gman57, thanks. That may be a nice simplistic way of explaining their behavior in 2022. TIP ETFs and MFs lost money when rates increased like every other bond. The term inflation protection is misleading to me and probably every other investor layman... but of course they lost money.

I meant not next step but more generally, what is to be concluded and actionable, now that we know, from your labors.
Interesting 'not all that similar' bottom line. portfoliovisualizer shows 93%-97% correlation over 5y, with 93% their single figure. I'd prefer your work.
No, never moon-assuming!

@MikeM, Quite honestly I don’t fully understand how to calculate the expected return from MF/ETF. So I hesitate to invest much in TIPs and limit myself to T bills and CDs at auction.
Now I am looking into individual agency bonds to get a bit higher yield than T bills. My goal is to get 5% yield annual without trading off the principal unlike TIPS funds. Like your don’t want to invest much in anything unless I understand how they work.

Notice that the treasury yield curve has changed since summer 2022:
1. The inverted curve started to flatten as 1 yr, 2 yr and 10 yr yields moving upward in the last several weeks.
2. As of yesterday, the 6 mo and one year yields reached 4.98% and 4.99%, respectively. @yogibb mentioned that is the sweet spot.
3. 10 year yield is moving upward and that is negatively impacting other bond prices. My core bond funds have moved down since the beginning of the year. Yields are over 4% now so I will dollar-cost-average back to my target %.
@MikeM, Please note that individual TIPs bond is not the same as TIPs funds/ETFs. TIPs fund/ETF bond price is volatile and 2022 was a down year YTD even when inflation is high. In order to take advantage of the CPI, one needs to buy individual TIPs of 5 yr, 10 yr or 20 yr, and hold them to maturity. More explanations from David Enna.
https://tipswatch.com/tips-in-depth/

The bull case for TIPS goes something like this. Max real rate ranges have been,
5-Yr TIPS -1.87% to +4.24%, current +1.49%
10-Yr TIPS -1.10% to +3.06%, current +1.41%
So, IF one assumes that in the current environment the real rates are peaking too, and IF at some future time they move to new lows (and negative), then TIPS would have a giant rally. But note 2 "IFs".
As I said before, I am not speculating in this area. But I can also see @Devo's point after TIPS funds have been trashed along with regular bond funds (and those have bounced more).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=105kz

I trust Devo understands this investment in TIPs, but even explained to me I can't say I really understand why they are positioned to move up. I can't invest in something I don't understand. Inflation continued to rise and TIPS continued to fall in 2022. If I look today, the ETF TIP is down ~13% in the past year, treading water YTD.
Schwab gives this analysis:

Trend Analysis
TIP appears to be consolidating within a longer term downtrend. Shares are presently below the 200-day moving average, which is falling along with the 10-day moving average. However, the Average Directional Index, or ADX, is below 20, indicating that shares have exhibited sideways movement recently. Comparative Relative Strength analysis shows that this issue is lagging the S&P 500.
As of 11:28 AM ET Wednesday, 02/15/2023
Momentum
Momentum for TIP is strongly bearish. The 14-period Slow Stochastic oscillator is below 20, the level which many analysts call oversold. This means that investors have been actively selling shares and driving the price lower.
As of 11:28 AM ET Wednesday, 02/15/2023

I'm pretty sure their day is coming as Devo says. I believe his analysis and investment ability but can't say I fully understand it. Bottom line, for me, if I don't understand their movement I can't invest.

I first tried instant X-ray before "rolling my own". I couldn't ignore the fact that M* only shows larger holdings.
Two of SCHD's top ten holdings, Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Blackrock (BLK), are not shown to overlap with the S&P 500. (They're very small parts of the S&P 500.)
These aren't isolated cases. Continuing down the list of SCHD's holdings, #11 IBM, #14 ADP, and #15 Altria are also S&P 500 components that don't appear to overlap. And so on.
What this x-ray does show is that the two funds are not all that similar.

@Derf, not really. 6-mo T-Bills are the sweet spot now - they have now crossed 5%.