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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Six Global Balanced Funds That Make Sense for This Market
    Have you attempted to ease the RMDs with backdoor Roth conversions?
    *********************
    Backdoor Roth is only for $7K / $8k new contributions in 2025, $7.5K / $8.6K in 2026. That too requires clean T-IRA (i.e. without deductible/pretax contributions).
    But to reduce future RMDs, consider QCDs from T-IRA and regular Roth Conversions from T-IRA and/or 401k/403b.
    Hardly anyone uses MRD now. The standard usage now is RMD
    .
    *************************
    *************************
    I have been reducing future RMDs in a back-handed way, withdrawing X amount from the T-IRA in January each year, for several years--- depending on portfolio performance and need.
    I have investigated and tried to implement a Deferred Charitable Annuity (under my wife's name) at the local church where I attend; but the Business Manager confesses ignorance about the Deferred part. She recommended I call the "God Box" in NYC where several denominations have offices, and talk to our Foundation people.
    ...I did so, and had a pleasant conversation. The employee in NYC promised to send me some tables, charts, statistics, options, information. And she did.
    But they were the wrong ones. No one is making this easy. So...
    I'll just do what I want to do in my own way.
    Reducing 1040 tax is not a concern in our case. I'll simply write checks in a few tranches as donations and label each one as "legacy giving" items, each time. That'll "git 'er done."
    I DO appreciate your thoughtfulness. I'm still a member, officially, of the (other) denomination I retired from, but they're not going to get any of my money. Period. ;)
  • Six Global Balanced Funds That Make Sense for This Market
    Backdoor Roth is only for $7K / $8k new contributions in 2025, $7.5K / $8.6K in 2026. That too requires clean T-IRA (i.e. without deductible/pretax contributions).
    But to reduce future RMDs, consider QCDs from T-IRA and regular Roth Conversions from T-IRA and/or 401k/403b.
    Hardly anyone uses MRD now. The standard usage now is RMD.
  • Six Global Balanced Funds That Make Sense for This Market
    RMDs, I'm sure you intended. Those are gonna hurt, but the $$$ can be reinvested in taxable. 2 more years to age 73. Born in '54. No escaping it. Death, taxes, winter. Well, not much winter here. Sometimes, however....
    Have you attempted to ease the RMDs with backdoor Roth conversions?
  • Vanguard Securities Lending Program
    The following info is from the Nov. 12, 2025 "Weekly Brief" published by The Independent Vanguard Adviser.
    If you participate in Vanguard's Fully Paid Lending Program, what has been your experience with this program?
    "In 2023, Vanguard opened the door to individual investors through its Fully Paid Lending (FPL) program,
    which the email is promoting. Here’s how it works: If you own individual stocks and enroll, Vanguard may lend some of them. You’ll earn a bit of income—split 50/50 with Vanguard—and when the loan ends, your shares
    are returned. You’ll keep 'economic ownership,' meaning you can sell the stock at any time."
    "So again, what’s not to like?
    First, while your shares are on loan, you lose your voting rights. The shares also aren’t protected by SIPC
    during that period. If the stock pays a dividend, you’ll still receive it—but the payment may be taxed differently.
    Finally, there’s no guaranteed payout. The income is variable and unpredictable."
    "Those are manageable trade-offs. The big question is: What’s the risk?
    Securities lending involves multiple moving parts—the lender (you), the borrower, a lending agent
    sitting between the two, collateral management and more. The main risk is that the borrower defaults,
    and the collateral isn’t enough to make you whole."
    "That’s unlikely, but not impossible. Vanguard has extensive experience lending securities,
    and the industry has tightened oversight over the years. Still, as with most 'extra income' offers,
    there’s no free lunch."
    https://www.independentvanguardadviser.com/weekly-brief-dont-mistake-noise-for-trouble/
    https://investor.vanguard.com/wealth-management/fully-paid-lending
  • Six Global Balanced Funds That Make Sense for This Market
    RMDs, I'm sure you intended. Those are gonna hurt, but the $$$ can be reinvested in taxable. 2 more years to age 73. Born in '54. No escaping it. Death, taxes, winter. Well, not much winter here. Sometimes, however....
  • The K-Shaped Economy
    Off topic - But one wonders how the popularity of online gaming of every sort (dice rolls, roulette wheels, sports events) is affecting the finances of these lower income workers? I was briefly addicted on an off-shore site several years before it became legal in the U.S. Wasn’t the $$ so much (probably lost $300 over 2-3 years) but the waste of time being glued to 2 or 3 contests daily that drove me to quit. Some stressed out workers facing higher prices for food, insurance, everything else may see online gambling as a “solution”. Nothing could be further from the truth.But I’m haunted by that possibility.
    Airlines? They are adding more and more first-class seats. On an A-320 /321 there might have been three or 4 first-class rows a few years ago. Now it’s 5 or 6 rows. Rarely did smaller short-haul flights offer first-class. Now most do. But I noticed on one recent flight that the legroom afforded first class flyers had shrunk a bit.
    (Most of my recent flying has been on American.)
  • vanguard 351 exchange
    351 exchange ETFs are offered by Cambria, Alpha Architect, etc. Not sure if Vanguard is into this specialized etf game. It may not be what you think it it is.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/762/351-exchange-etfs
  • The K-Shaped Economy
    Taken from a similar thread:
    https://www.morningbrew.com/stories/2025/11/03/evidence-of-k-shaped-economy-popping-up-everywhere
    -The affluent doing very well along with the booming stock market and the appreciation of their homes in the inventory-crunched real estate market.
    -Nearly everyone else faltering due to a shaky job market, high interest rates, and/or inflation.
    Auto: In September, the cost of a new vehicle passed the $50,000 mark for the first time, according to Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book. And repossession volume passing through Manheim, the auction group owned by Cox, was up 12% through the end of September on an annualized basis, according to the Wall Street Journal’s deep-dive into the rise of auto repos.
    Airlines: Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian said that sales of premium seats would exceed those of coach seats for at least one or two quarters in 2026.
    Food & bev: Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey told CNBC that sales of its premium brands, like Smartwater, Topo Chico, and Fairlife, are juicing the company’s sales, while Coke demand is up at dollar stores, as well as at amusement parks frequented by higher spenders.
    Consumer goods: Apple grew by double digits last quarter, thanks to strong sales of the $799 iPhone 17. And while economist Leo Feler told Marketplace that “everyone has kept buying health and personal care items,” how and when they buy them has changed. Wealthier shoppers are making hauls at Costco, while budget-constrained shoppers use up everything at home before going shopping.
    Zoom out: Economic trends suggest that the gap will widen rather than narrow. Economist Betsey Stevenson of the University of Michigan told Marketplace, “The real risk to a K-shaped economy is social and political instability."
  • vanguard 351 exchange

    any have experience doing this? is there flagship help? self-service?
    i am really interested in knowing if conversion to a trust is worth the effort, but manage a family trust account to try it out.
  • OK, this must be the signal that "the top is near"
    "Will the U.S. say that aliens exist this year?"
    Robinhood Markets clients can currently guess "yes" through their brokerage app, paying $4, plus $2 in fees, to win $100 if they're right. Don’t call these bets. Robinhood prefers prediction markets and event trading.
    “It’s the fastest-growing business we’ve ever had,” (says) Chief Brokerage Officer Steve Quirk.

    (Lightly edited for brevity and emphasis) From Barron’s 11/17/25 - by Jack Hough)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Glad you liked it. I’ve not known FD to reveal his holdings until after he has cashed out.
    The real laugh might be when checking past performance of some of these stocks. While Newell Brands (NWL) rose slightly today, it is down 65% YTD. Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is down 35% over 6 months. Flowers Food (FLO) is down 45% YTD.
    It’s a spec play, the thinking being that a basket full of these “dregs” in small quantity, may allow me the staying power to wait them out. Obviously I believe them to have good upside potential from the current depressed levels.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    Speaking of Epstein and jail... here's this via The Guardian-
    Trump refuses to rule out pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell

    Donald Trump just took questions from reporters for the first time since Monday, and refused to rule out a pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell, his former associate who was sentenced to 20 years in federal prison in 2022, for her role in a scheme to sexually exploit and abuse multiple minor girls with Jeffrey Epstein over the course of a decade.
  • Starting a new thread: Bloomberg Real Yield. (Begin, 08/08/25) Hiatus starts 21 Nov. '25
    14 Nov '25:
    Can't talk for several days, but I can type.
    Scarlet Fu seems to have taken over as full-time host. It pleases me.
    So, Data drought due to shutdown. ORK! The data we have is stale, some private (vs. gummint) data is being published. Can we trust gummint data under the current regime, anyhow? When data is again collected and published by gummint, it will be slow, incremental. Some October stats will just be skipped, forgotten, left to be forgotten. THERE'S leadership! (Meanwhile Dept. Ag. is requiring all food stamp recipients to RE-APPLY. Because full-time workers who can't make a living need the help, and of course, we must make things as difficult as possible for them all. Just let the billionaires coast on their tax cuts, eh?)
    Odds of a Dec. rate cut are mixed, about 50/50 according to the Talking Heads. There has been a bunch of market volatility in the face of the lack of data. The information-picture will be cloudy for months to come. (Fickle decisions [and suggestions] by the Orange regime.)
    So, although lower rates are expected later into '26, it's a dicey situation for the several months to come, including the end of '25. Some FED Governors are sounding skeptical about rate cuts.
    Credit Caution. Orange 50-year mortgages? Well... Michael Burry was able to get some of the Banksters to CREATE an instrument by which he could short the housing market... For a 50-year (and mortgage portability) to work, there will need to be new financial infrastructure invented. (Watch out for THAT monstrosity!) One of the guests asserted that "only time" will fix the affordability issue. Not a very hands-on strategy.
    Belly of the curve seems a good place to be. And with credit jitters in Junk, it may very well be prudent to stick to I.G. bonds. Yet, Junk issuance has reached $1.5TRILLION in 2025, highest since 2020.
    Yes, we are in a K-shaped economy. I'm luckier than most, yet my portfolio is range bound in 2025. Stinky poopy.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-11-14/real-yield-11-14-2025-video
  • The K-Shaped Economy
     Key Points
    Wages for the top 25% of the U.S. workforce are rising by 4.6% annually,
    while the lowest quarter sees only 3.6% annual gains.
    Financial stress is increasing for lower-income households,
    with 29% living paycheck to paycheck and a record 6.7% of subprime auto loans delinquent.
    The economy’s growth is increasingly reliant on affluent households,
    as lower-income consumers face rising costs and reduced spending capacity.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/what-is-the-k-shaped-economy-and-why-is-it-a-problem/ar-AA1QpHuF
  • Trump’s reshoring push is tripping over itself
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/18/trump-reshoring-tariffs-balacing-00612521
    "Tariffs meant to protect American producers are raising the cost of the very materials they need to expand their footprint in the U.S. New visa policies risk narrowing the talent pipeline needed for that expansion. And spending cuts pushed by White House budget hawks threaten some of the subsidies companies need to make bringing back jobs pay off."
    “I think we don’t get the credit we deserve. This is all much more thought out,” said a White House official, granted anonymity to share the administration’s thinking. “There’s a status quo … and obviously that’s why companies are profitable and making money, and I think folks don’t like any disruption to the status quo.”
    ^^Did this "anonymous source" actually just say that companies are not cooperating because it will disrupt profits?
    Really? Companies don't want to lose money and see investors flee? Whodda thunk?

    These very companies are actually suing at the SCOTUS level!
    “It’s frustrating because we’re the most American auto company, and we export the most, and yet, we have this $2 billion headwind, which prevents me from investing even more in the U.S.,” said Jim Farley, CEO of Ford Motor Company.
    “The administration seems to be more of a ‘ready, fire, aim’ type of situation,” said Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the libertarian Cato Institute. “Their first gut impulse is on the tariffs and government equity stakes and other things, and they’ve somewhat ignored a lot of the supply-side impediments.”
    And they have ignored that it all drives a massive scale of inflation. Building the infrastructure and supply-chain to support large scale manufacturing is hella expensive, and all of that feeds into the final product. Which will likely end up being a $75,000 basic automobile. No worries, though. You will be able to get a 15-year car loan!
  • Sentiment & Market Indicators, 11/12/25
    "The newsletter also highlights a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors.
    Stocks’ six-month return was highest when the spread between self-professed bulls
    and bears was most sharply negative—in other words, when respondents were most-pessimistic."
    "If you’re feeling almost envious of those buying opportunities, have a look at last week’s Michigan
    sentiment number. It came in well below expectations at 50.3, the second-lowest result ever.
    And the AAII survey just had a bull-bear spread in its most-pessimistic decile."
    "And when they respond to surveys, their feelings about the person in the White House skew their opinions.
    Low sentiment today is relative to our recent, gentle experiences and also more politicized than ever."
    "With stocks near the highest valuation ever, it’s also extremely unlikely they’ll more than double
    in the coming years. Are sentiment indicators broken as an investing cue?
    No, but they need to be recalibrated."
    https://marketsam.cmail19.com/t/d-e-gjdkykl-duklntldl-r/
  • Uncle Warren signs off....
    "It’s the end of an era for Berkshire Hathaway as Warren Buffett prepares to step aside as CEO.
    Investors shouldn’t worry about the change—in fact, they should welcome it."
    "Buffett fans might not like to hear it, but the CEO transition is coming at a good time.
    Buffett has slowed down in recent years and grown increasingly cautious.
    Berkshire’s massive cash holdings have been a drag on performance; Buffett has been selling stock,
    when he should have been buying; and recent acquisitions have left much to be desired.
    Berkshire stock has risen 13% in 2025, lagging behind the S&P 500’s 16% gain,
    and it has underperformed the index over the past three, 10, and 15 years.
    It’s a very un-Buffett-like performance."
    "Abel will need to articulate a vision for a post-Buffett Berkshire. It could be something like this:
    'I plan to build on the platform that Warren Buffett created and use Berkshire’s durable and ample earnings
    for investments, acquisitions, share repurchases, and dividends. Berkshire will be a more focused company
    under my leadership, with greater financial transparency, and maintain a Fort Knox balance sheet.
    I realize I can’t be Warren Buffett.
    But with the help of our talented managers, I pledge to improve our subsidiaries
    and turn what is the largest conglomerate in the world into the best-run conglomerate.
    My goal is to attract a new generation of investors to Berkshire and position the company
    to produce market-beating returns over time.'”
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/berkshire-without-buffett-what-s-next-for-the-company-and-the-stock/ar-AA1QoHzR
  • US airlines cancel flights after aviation agency directive to cut air traffic
    "In December 2024, the U.S. Transportation Department under then-President Joe Biden
    sought public comment on writing rules to require airlines to pay $200 to $300
    for domestic delays of at least three hours and up to $775 for longer delays."
    "President Donald Trump's administration said on Friday it was formally withdrawing a plan
    by his predecessor to require airlines to pay passengers cash compensation
    when U.S. flight disruptions are caused by carriers."
    https://www.reuters.com/world/us-drops-biden-plan-require-passenger-compensation-delayed-flights-2025-11-14/
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Created a new “BARF” basket with 5% of assets today. Will dollar-average potentially up to 7% if values decline substantially from here. Holdings: NWL, CZR, FLO, AJG, BATRA, ESRT, TROW