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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Any limits to how far a fund can fall in a single day? Old Thread / New Question / Same Fund

    Morningstar Ratings 101: What You Need to Know
    "A 5-star risk rating indicates that a fund has been among the market's top performers in terms of risk-adjusted return over the past three, five, or ten-year period."
  • Any limits to how far a fund can fall in a single day? Old Thread / New Question / Same Fund
    Resurrecting very old thread … Sorry for any confusion. Consider this “an oldie goldie”.
    Can’t read Morningstar’s “analyst ratings” because I don’t subscribe. But they offer a tantalizing opening bit of their write-up for free. Here’s the lead-in from Morningstar’s site …
    ”A middling Parent Pillar rating and a subpar People Pillar limit Invesco Gold & Special Minerals A to a Morningstar Quantitative Rating of Neutral.”
    But when you look at their overall rating for the fund, displayed more prominently at the top of the same page, it shows 5 stars.
    This turkey aside, what is it about Morningstar’s methodology that causes a “middling” fund, in their own words, to receive a 5-star rating? Also, if anyone knows, I’d be interested in whether anything about this fund’s management changed after Invesco assumed control of the former Oppenheimer funds? Wondering to what extent those 5 stars represent a legacy from the days when Oppenheimer ran the fund?
    ISTM Invesco already had an (inferior) gold fund when they bought out Oppenheimer. Did they essentially “axe” the superior Oppenheimer fund and its management and then apply that name to their own inferior fund - moving the invested assets into it as well?
  • Why Are You Seeing So Many Bad Digital Ads Now?
    Surprisingly relevant to big tech investing:
    https://nytimes.com/2023/02/11/technology/bad-digital-ads.html
    Advancements in digital advertising technology were meant to improve users’ experience. People interested in shoes are intended to get ads for sneakers and loafers, and not repeated pitches for courses teaching seduction techniques. And the technology is supposed to filter out misleading or dangerous pitches.
    But lately, on several platforms, the opposite seems to be happening for a variety of reasons, including a slowdown in the overall digital ad market. As numerous deep-pocketed marketers have pulled back, and the softer market has led several digital platforms to lower their ad pricing, opportunities have opened up for less exacting advertisers….
    ….But advertising experts agree that crummy ads — some just irritating, others malicious — appear to be proliferating. They point to a variety of potential causes: internal turmoil at tech companies, weak content moderation and higher-tier advertisers exploring alternatives. In addition, privacy changes by Apple and other tech companies have affected the availability of users’ data and advertisers’ ability to track it to better tailor their ads.
    Then, there’s the economy: A survey of 43 multinational companies representing more than $44 billion in advertising spending, conducted last fall by the World Federation of Advertisers, found that nearly 30 percent planned to shrink their marketing budgets this year. Clorox, which budgets hundreds of millions of dollars a year to advertising and promoting products like Burt’s Bees lotions, Brita filters and Pine-Sol cleaners, said this month that it was beginning to streamline its marketing, which included cutting back on spending.
    Digital ad spending, while still growing overall, “has decelerated precipitously,” according to an analysis last month by the research firm Insider Intelligence.
    Twitter seems to be faring the worst. The company has struggled to retain top-flight advertisers since Mr. Musk took over as owner in October, amid fears of a proliferation of hate speech and misinformation on the platform. Its 10 largest advertisers last year spent 55 percent less during Mr. Musk’s tenure than they did a year earlier, with six of them spending nothing so far in 2023, according to estimates from the research firm Sensor Tower. Twitter has offered buy-one-get-one-free deals, discounts and bonus incentives to lure back advertisers, media buyers said.
    But advertising troubles have hit the biggest publicly traded social networks, too. Snapchat’s parent company last month posted its slowest-ever rate of quarterly growth and projected a sales drop for the current quarter. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, said ad sales at YouTube slipped nearly 8 percent in the latest quarter.
    Last year, Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, reported its first decline ever in quarterly revenue (it fell again last quarter). Ad prices on Facebook and Instagram fell 24 percent in the last quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, according to the investment bank Piper Sandler.
  • 0DTE
    There are already VIX for 9 days (VIX9D), 3 mo (VIX3M), 6 mo (VIX6M), 1 yr (VIX1Y).
    Just as the regular VIX (for 30 days) uses SP500 options that bracket 30 days +/- 7 days, VIX9D brackets 9 days options (unclear by how many days +/-).
    These symbols are also recognized by Yahoo Finance as ^VIX9D (with very limited History), etc, but not by StockCharts (only $VIX is recognized among these). Both have quite a bit of History for regular ^VIX or $VIX.
    Yahoo Charts for 1 mo for ^VIX and ^VIX9D look similar although ^VIX9D values are slightly higher. For ^VIX9D, the Yahoo Summary page chart is good for 1D, 5D, 1M, YTD, but nothing else. The Yahoo Chart and History tabs doesn't pull any data.
    My guess is that CBOE is looking into even shorter-term VIXnD whose brackets may include 0DTE.
    VIX9D
    https://www.cboe.com/us/indices/dashboard/vix9d/
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^VIX9D?p=^VIX9D&.tsrc=fin-srch
  • Rondure Global's 4Q22 commentary
    Geritz and Foster write with candor. But their records are less than great.
    What? They are both 5 star funds and great owls, I believe. Less than great may pertain to the category, but not these managers.
    Agree though if you aren't comfortable on EM you should stay away. Domestic has been the winner for a long time. I believe this is changing, or already has, but comfortable is important.
  • 0DTE
    Article has a Good explanation of 0DTE; there are 1DTE,..., NDTE, etc too. There is nothing new here as all options near expiry will go through these phases. But no-commission trading makes this trading possible for retail (in the old days, $5-10 commissions per options contract (100 shares) didn't make this worthwhile except for dealers).
    Concern is that this options activity is outside of formal measurements like VIX that are options-based but use options with 30 +/- 7 days left to maturity. I suppose new real-time options measurements may develop to capture NDTE in future, but all we can do for now is watch their huge volumes.
    Forsyth in last week's Barron's also had a warning on them.
  • 0DTE
    0DTE - “Zero Days to Expiration (0DTE) Options and How They Work”
    ARTICLE - How "0DTE" Options Will Cause the Next Black Monday
    image
  • No conviction in this Market
    Glad to hear from you all. I've had to cancel a small exchange between funds, 2 days in a row, now. I suppose what's behind my original thought above is: "what GOOD are the Futures numbers, then???" Was it Ben Graham who first said the Market, short-term, is a voting machine; long-term, it's a weighing machine." The past two days have not changed my life, exactly. I admit I'm the sort of guy who prefers a neat, clutter-free picture. But life, and the Markets, are messy. Still, when you open so far to the positive and then tumble, by the end of the day, by over 450 points from the starting high point---- that's VOLATILITY. And of course, you have the day-traders doing their old "in-out, in-out, in-out" thing. (Reference "Clockwork Orange.")
    Martin Zweig, yes. I watched WSW quite a bit, back then. Still just learning, with no money to invest. His droopy, sad manner was characteristic, always. And I recall the Flash-Crash of '87. I was in Spokane. I recall the very ROOM I was standing in, and my "holy cow!" reaction. Meanwhile, in 2023, I am beset by good fortune and a comfortable life, with the chance to do some good things for other people. Many of them are in-laws. It's a nice problem to have.
    ...MORE lay-offs in the big firms, lots of them in Tech. Were they all really so bloated with humans, until now? Good thing I don't foresee needing their Customer "Service" anytime soon. Still watching my "off the radar" smaller, lesser known companies. Still quite a bit ahead of the game in 2023. Finally, I note that JRSH, almost my smallest holding, zoomed up over +7% in a single day, today. And so, WTF is up with THAT? Talk about yer outliers, eh? Are people buying the 5 cent dividend???
  • Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral
    I agree with Yogi that TIAA annuities are solid, low cost investment options. Except for TIAA Traditional, the fact that they are annuities is essentially a non-issue; what matters is the all-in cost.
    Prior to SECURE 2.0, annuitized contracts (where you exchanged cash value for a promised income stream starting either "now" or "deferred" to some time in the future) were treated as separate from the remainder of your 403(b) or IRA. This is called "bifurcation".
    Traditionally under bifurcation, the RMD requirement for the annuitized portion of a plan was automatically satisfied so long as payments began by age 73. QLACs were created to allow payments to begin later (up to age 85).
    Here's the way Kiplinger describes it:
    A DIA [deferred income annuity] can work well as an IRA, but make sure your income payments begin no later than age 72 [now 73] to comply with required minimum distribution (RMD) rules. If you want to defer income payments past that age, consider a qualified longevity annuity contract (QLAC).
    https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/annuities/604392/its-ira-season-ensure-your-assets-are-optimally-invested
    This isn't changed by SECURE 2.0. What SECURE 2.0 does is allow you to disregard bifurcation. If the annuity's monthly payment exceeds the RMD of the annuity portion (I've no idea how that is calculated), then the excess can be applied towards satisfying the RMD of the remainder (non-annuitized portion) of the 403(b) or IRA.
    That seems to address the "age old" question - what happens in the first year you annuitize a non-QLAC contract within a 403(b) or IRA? For a description of this question, see:
    https://www.irahelp.com/slottreport/what-happens-my-rmds-if-i-annuitize-my-ira-annuity
    As to whether, when one annuitizes in TIAA, the annuity contract remains within the original 403(b) plan or TIAA creates a separate plan (which would prevent applying any excess monthly payments toward the RMD of the rest of the 403(b) plan), I have no idea. TIAA does an excellent job of hiding that contract altogether. It's not listed under any 403(b) plan, and the first time I looked for it, it took me over an hour to find on the TIAA site.
    FWIW, here's another M* community thread, this one specifically on Section 204 of SECURE 2.0 (the part dealing with excess monthly payments).
    https://community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o00006PByU7CAL/section-204-excess-annuity-payment
  • No conviction in this Market
    SP500 4,100 was an important level. Market has to be comfortable there, and so far in Feb, all closings have been above 4,100 (although it has been breached intraday). Then, the next hill is at 4,325.
    You may have seen nearby that the AAII Bull-Bear Spread has turned positive after a negative streak of record 44 weeks. Some fireworks are already being seen in trashy stocks. Golden-cross also happened in Feb.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51599677386
  • No conviction in this Market
    09 Feb, '23: Market opens up 200+ DJIA and there's been selling into it ever since. Now down around +75.
    Stinky dooky.
  • Yield curve most steeply inverted since early 80s / Bridgewater's Karniol-Tambour on recession risk
    Not a market call on my part. Karniol-Tambour (video) is looking out months - or even years. So I don’t feel she’s necessarily making a market call either. But I do think her longer term outlook is supported by the increasingly strident interest rate talk coming from various Fed officials this week plus recent / continuing movements in the bond market. The spread between 2 and 10 year Treasury bond as of this morning is the most inverted since the early 1980s with the 2 year Treasury yielding 85 b/p more than the 10-year . A steep inversion has often in the past been a good indicator of approaching recessions. (Just because I’m paranoid doesn't mean there won’t be one … )
    Karniol-Tambour is the newest member of Bridgewater’s 3-person investment team. She does not (to my recollection) address the inverted curve.
  • Ray Dalio on "Money"
    https://www.yahoo.com/now/worlds-largest-hedge-fund-founder-180310822.html
    I found this opinion interesting in the context of our discussions in and around TIPS. Basically, if you take all the bs out of crypto and coin and what not, Dalio is suggesting a future where we hold cash indexed to inflation. TIPS are just that minus the cash in the bank part. TIPS Bond holders get inflation + real yields. If one likes inflation linked cash, that means Real Yield = zero. Right now TIPS offers Real Yields of +1.4-1.7% depending on the maturity. This is part of the reason I am leaning into TIPS. As @yogibearbull has often written, he prefers 5 year TIPS. There too one gets 1.4% Real yield and much less duration than the 30 year TIPS which makes the 5-year bonds less volatile.
    In any case, increasingly I feel the inflation priced into the bond market of around 2.25% and the inflation I feel all around me are such different things. I don't quite know what's a good answer to the problem except holding a healthy amount of TIPS. Of course if you hold stocks for the very very long run, eventually the earnings and dividends are in excess of whatever yields tips will generate.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/8/23
    For the week ending on 2/8/23, bullish became the top sentiment (37.5%; average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (25.0%; below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (37.5%; above average & tie); Bull-Bear Spread was +12.5% (!; below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto ice-age; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (50+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were mixed, bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar up. Bull-Bear spread became positive for the first time since 3/31/22 (the negative run was for a record 44 weeks). #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=9&scrollTo=924
  • Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral
    TIAA annuities within 403b are low-cost. For example, CREF Stock VA has all-in ER of 0.23% only (AUM $112 billion). Post-retirement, money can remain as-is in TIAA Traditional (like SV; current crediting rate 6.00%) and TIAA and CREF VAs, but can also be rolled into IRAs.
    CREF Stock VA https://www.tiaa.org/public/investment-performance/investment/profile?ticker=268555492
    TIAA Traditional - RA https://www.tiaa.org/public/investment-performance/investment/profile?ticker=47933630
    There is discussion on Secure 2.0 implications at the thread below at the M* TIAA Forum. When one annuitizes from TIAA 403b, TIAA issues a separate contract for it and it isn't clear whether the money is still part of the original 403b contract (it should be, IMO). My guess is that TIAA may modify its setup to benefit from Secure 2.0; the language is very specific on split annuitized-unannuitized $s within the same account. Beware that early discussion on this M* thread was based on some erroneous info provided by Fidelity at its website; I contacted Fidelity and was informed that the info at Fidelity website has been corrected.
    https://community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o00006OFGTRCA5/update-on-secure-act-of-2022
  • Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral
    From @msf quoted,

    "hold an annuity in an IRA"

    Teachers have had this dreadful option for years...
    Variable Annuities (products) wrapped in a 403b.
    Wonder if these VAs will get the same RMD treatment (relief) as QLACs?
    Some teachers contribute to a mixed bag of Variable Annuities and non-VA mutual funds as part of their 403b portfolio. After retirement, the VAs get annuitized and the non-VAs often get rolled over into Traditional IRAs.
    TIAA CREF Summary:
    https://tiaa.org/public/pdf/Consultant_SECURE_Act_Summary_Flyer.pdf
    403b QLAC:
    https://businessofbenefits.com/2015/05/articles/uncategorized/the-403b-qlac/
  • Interesting YTD dichotomy BRK.B vs AAPL
    +1
    Since my OP I’ve seen reports of anywhere from 25% - 40% of stocks held in AAPL. So the 40% I mentioned earlier might not be correct. Not sure. Lots of cash - ISTM in the 20-25% range as a % of portfolio. Of course there are delays in reporting. Current figures may be accurate as of September (as reported in November).