No conviction in this Market Glad to hear from you all. I've had to cancel a small exchange between funds, 2 days in a row, now. I suppose what's behind my original thought above is: "what GOOD are the Futures numbers, then???" Was it Ben Graham who first said the Market, short-term, is a voting machine; long-term, it's a weighing machine." The past two days have not changed my life, exactly. I admit I'm the sort of guy who prefers a neat, clutter-free picture. But life, and the Markets, are messy. Still, when you open so far to the positive and then tumble, by the end of the day, by over 450 points from the starting high point---- that's VOLATILITY. And of course, you have the day-traders doing their old "in-out, in-out, in-out" thing. (Reference "Clockwork Orange.")
Martin Zweig, yes. I watched WSW quite a bit, back then. Still just learning, with no money to invest. His droopy, sad manner was characteristic, always. And I recall the Flash-Crash of '87. I was in Spokane. I recall the very ROOM I was standing in, and my "holy cow!" reaction. Meanwhile, in 2023, I am beset by good fortune and a comfortable life, with the chance to do some good things for other people. Many of them are in-laws. It's a nice problem to have.
...MORE lay-offs in the big firms, lots of them in Tech. Were they all really so bloated with humans, until now? Good thing I don't foresee needing their Customer "Service" anytime soon. Still watching my "off the radar" smaller, lesser known companies. Still quite a bit ahead of the game in 2023. Finally, I note that JRSH, almost my smallest holding, zoomed up over +7% in a single day, today. And so, WTF is up with THAT? Talk about yer outliers, eh? Are people buying the 5 cent dividend???
Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral I agree with Yogi that TIAA annuities are solid, low cost investment options. Except for TIAA Traditional, the fact that they are annuities is essentially a non-issue; what matters is the all-in cost.
Prior to SECURE 2.0, annuitized contracts (where you exchanged cash value for a promised income stream starting either "now" or "deferred" to some time in the future) were treated as separate from the remainder of your 403(b) or IRA. This is called "bifurcation".
Traditionally under bifurcation, the RMD requirement for the annuitized portion of a plan was automatically satisfied so long as payments began by age 73. QLACs were created to allow payments to begin later (up to age 8
5).
Here's the way Kiplinger describes it:
A DIA [deferred income annuity] can work well as an IRA, but make sure your income payments begin no later than age 72 [now 73] to comply with required minimum distribution (RMD) rules. If you want to defer income payments past that age, consider a qualified longevity annuity contract (QLAC).
https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/annuities/604392/its-ira-season-ensure-your-assets-are-optimally-investedThis isn't changed by SECURE 2.0. What SECURE 2.0 does is allow you to disregard bifurcation. If the annuity's monthly payment exceeds the RMD of the annuity portion (I've no idea how that is calculated), then the excess can be applied towards satisfying the RMD of the remainder (non-annuitized portion) of the 403(b) or IRA.
That seems to address the "age old" question - what happens in the first year you annuitize a non-QLAC contract within a 403(b) or IRA? For a description of this question, see:
https://www.irahelp.com/slottreport/what-happens-my-rmds-if-i-annuitize-my-ira-annuityAs to whether, when one annuitizes in TIAA, the annuity contract remains within the original 403(b) plan or TIAA creates a separate plan (which would prevent applying any excess monthly payments toward the RMD of the rest of the 403(b) plan), I have no idea. TIAA does an excellent job of hiding that contract altogether. It's not listed under any 403(b) plan, and the first time I looked for it, it took me over an hour to find on the TIAA site.
FWIW, here's another M* community thread, this one specifically on Section 204 of SECURE 2.0 (the part dealing with excess monthly payments).
https://community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o00006PByU7CAL/section-204-excess-annuity-payment
No conviction in this Market SP
500
4,100 was an important level. Market has to be comfortable there, and so far in Feb, all closings have been above 4,100 (although it has been breached intraday). Then, the next hill is at
4,325.
You may have seen nearby that the AAII
Bull-Bear Spread has turned positive after a negative streak of record 44 weeks. Some fireworks are already being seen in trashy stocks.
Golden-cross also happened in Feb.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51599677386
No conviction in this Market 09 Feb, '23: Market opens up 200+ DJIA and there's been selling into it ever since. Now down around +75.
Stinky dooky.
Yield curve most steeply inverted since early 80s / Bridgewater's Karniol-Tambour on recession risk
Yield curve most steeply inverted since early 80s / Bridgewater's Karniol-Tambour on recession risk Not a market call on my part. Karniol-Tambour (video) is looking out months - or even years. So I don’t feel she’s necessarily making a market call either. But I do think her longer term outlook is supported by the increasingly strident interest rate talk coming from various Fed officials this week plus recent / continuing movements in the bond market. The spread between 2 and 10 year Treasury bond as of this morning is the most inverted since the early 1980s with the
2 year Treasury yielding 8
5 b/p
more than the
10-year . A steep inversion has
often in the past been a good indicator of approaching recessions. (Just because I’m paranoid doesn't mean there won’t be one … )
Karniol-Tambour is the newest member of Bridgewater’s 3-person investment team. She does
not (to my recollection) address the inverted curve.

Ray Dalio on "Money" https://www.yahoo.com/now/worlds-largest-hedge-fund-founder-180310822.htmlI found this opinion interesting in the context of our discussions in and around TIPS. Basically, if you take all the bs out of crypto and coin and what not, Dalio is suggesting a future where we hold cash indexed to inflation. TIPS are just that minus the cash in the bank part. TIPS Bond holders get inflation + real yields. If one likes inflation linked cash, that means Real Yield = zero. Right now TIPS offers Real Yields of +1.4-1.7% depending on the maturity. This is part of the reason I am leaning into TIPS. As
@yogibearbull has often written, he prefers
5 year TIPS. There too one gets 1.4% Real yield and much less duration than the 30 year TIPS which makes the
5-year bonds less volatile.
In any case, increasingly I feel the inflation priced into the bond market of around 2.2
5% and the inflation I feel all around me are such different things. I don't quite know what's a good answer to the problem except holding a healthy amount of TIPS. Of course if you hold stocks for the very very long run, eventually the earnings and dividends are in excess of whatever yields tips will generate.
AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/8/23 For the week ending on 2/8/23, bullish became the top sentiment (37.
5%; average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (2
5.0%; below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (37.
5%; above average & tie); Bull-Bear Spread was +12.
5% (!; below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto ice-age; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (
50+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were mixed, bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar up.
Bull-Bear spread became positive for the first time since 3/31/22 (the negative run was for a record 44 weeks). #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=9&scrollTo=924
Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral
Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral
Interesting YTD dichotomy BRK.B vs AAPL +1
Since my OP I’ve seen reports of anywhere from 25% - 40% of stocks held in AAPL. So the 40% I mentioned earlier might not be correct. Not sure. Lots of cash - ISTM in the 20-25% range as a % of portfolio. Of course there are delays in reporting. Current figures may be accurate as of September (as reported in November).