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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Adanis empire lost 51 billions in 48 hrs
    It gets curiouser.
    So, after the secondary/FPO (follow-on public offering) was suddenly fully subscribed at the last minute at price well over the market price, Adani Group pulled it saying that it won't be fair to its investors and that it didn't need the money after all. Deposits would be refunded.
    Unfortunately, some traders may have gotten caught in the fiasco or whipsawed.
    https://www.financialexpress.com/market/adani-enterprises-withdraw-fpo-worth-rs-20000-crore-money-to-be-returned-to-investors-tweets-ani/2968570/
    Edit/Add. Press Release https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/8e2c9f40-730f-444a-a65f-432194e81edc.pdf
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    I got data from 2021 from Fido. about 50% of the SPAXX yield was state tax free. I don't know what % then was in Repos, but I bet that it was 50% and Repos are not state tax free
  • FOMC Statement, 2/1/23
    Notes from FOMC Statements & Powell's Presser
    Fed funds rate hikes +25 bps to 4.50-4.75%; (bank) reserve balance rate 4.65%; discount rate 4.75%; gradual rate hikes with at least "a couple more" hikes. Wait to see the FOMC Minutes for discussions related to pause/pivot. The QT continues at -$60 billion/mo for Treasuries and -$35 billion/mo for MBS (total QT -$95 billion/mo).
    Financial conditions remain restrictive. Stock and bond markets are just one factor. The Fed and the bond market differ on how fast the inflation will be coming down. The Fed thinks that we are far from +2% average inflation target as PCE is +5.0, core PCE +4.4%. Price declines are visible in goods, but not in services yet. Housing has weakened, but the labor market and wage growth remain strong. Covid-19 is no longer seen as an economic risk.
    Debt-ceiling must be raise timely to prevent chaos; the Fed is an agent of the Treasury and cannot protect from consequences of failure; there is no coordination with the ongoing QT.
    State and local governments are flushed with cash and those projects may contribute to economic activity.
    Overtightening is preferred over under-tightening.
    Soft landing is possible and recession may be avoided.
    In the market actions that I kept an eye on, the stock market was strong and in the bond market, all Treasury rates fell (on a day of Fed rate hike announcement).
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/158/fomc-statements-6-7-weeks?page=2&scrollTo=918
  • This Tale of Humira Made Me Doubt My Healthcare Holdings
    @mark
    Yes should be "less" Thanks. Don't get me started on VA! They do the best they can, given the restrictions imposed by politics.
    @BenWP
    Humira Story gets worse.
    From Barrons
    "ABBV ‘s anti-inflammatory drug Humira, one of the top-selling prescription drugs in history, is facing generic-style competition for the first time this week since its introduction 20 years ago.
    Hopes that competition would bring immediate cost savings was tamped down on Tuesday, however, when Amgen (ticker: AMGN) announced a pricing scheme for its generic-style competitor that raises new questions about how effective so-called biosimilars will be reducing spending on high-price drugs.
    The first, Amgen Amjevita, launches Tuesday. The company said early Tuesday it will sell Amjevita at two different list prices: One at 55% below Humira’s list price, and one at 5% below Humira’s list price. Humira’s list price is $6,922.62 for a four-week supply.
    Both prices buy the same product. It’s up to the middlemen known as pharmacy-benefit managers, or PBMs, which are generally owned by big insurance companies, to decide whether to pay the higher or lower price. The high-price version appears to be intended to allow Amgen to pay higher rebates to the PBMs.
    “This pricing strategy is likely designed to give PBMs and plans the flexibility to choose the version that suits their needs, either a low price/low rebate or high price/high rebate version depending on the plan’s individual strategy,” Cowen analyst Yaron Werber wrote in a note early Tuesday."
    Seems like this really should be illegal.
  • FOMC Statement, 2/1/23
    Whatever Powell said, it sure turned markets around. Most everything’s popping after a weak morning. The 10-Year Treasury has fallen to just over 3.4% having been over 3.5% earlier this week. Gold modestly up to $1960 - but nice 2%+ pop in the miners. ARKK up 4% for the day last look. S&P up 1% as of 3:15 PM. Of course anything can happen by end of day.
    One Bloomberg commentator calling the day’s action “a massive short cover…” Could be correct considering the widespread bearishness that’s been well documented in some of the posts here.
    Edit: Inexplicably, oil has fallen sharply today. Not what one might expect …
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    Feds raised interest rates today by .25%--I wonder if that will lead to another hike in MM and CD interest rates soon. In the fixed income options, I continue using MM and short term CDs, and whatever cash I hold is only temporary and in small amounts.
  • Bed, Bath & Beyond Default
    Sign of the times in retail. Stuff will probably be cheap at the stores closing as they clear out the inventory, but you won't be able to return it, and warrranties? Probably done:https://cnn.com/2023/02/01/business/bed-bath-beyond-closures-list/index.html
    The BBB closest to me has been closing for the past couple months. Last time I was there they were advertising 20-50% off but most of what was left was only 20% off so no better than a BBB coupon (and I was getting emails offering 25% off entire purchases at all their stores not just the one closing). They recently bumped the advertised percent off to 30-70%. The sale wasn’t being run by a liquidator so I was actually able to return something. Items with warranties should be OK since they’re from the manufacturer, except for their private label goods which I wouldn’t recommend.
    It’s a little sad as I remember going to the mothership in NJ (back when it was merely BB) as a kid.
  • This Tale of Humira Made Me Doubt My Healthcare Holdings
    @sma3 - Did you leave out the word "less" in your statement "The VA spent 54% than Medicare part D because they can negotiate"?
    Maybe true but they are still sticking this vet with a much less effective medication to feed their bottom line. I speak of Symbicort v. Wixela.
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    Anybody know off the top of your head what % of the Government funds ae state tax exempt?
    SPAXX is 75% Repos. I am looking for the statement from Fidelity about this but it is hard to find
  • This Tale of Humira Made Me Doubt My Healthcare Holdings
    The VA spent 54% than Medicare part D because they can negotiate
    Saved 48% on Brand name drugs. Doesn't separate biologics (Humira) per say
    https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-111
  • Rimrock Core Bond Fund to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1753394/000121390023006585/s148703_497.htm
    497 1 s148703_497.htm 497
    RIMROCK FUNDS TRUST
    (the “Trust”)
    Rimrock Core Bond Fund
    SUPPLEMENT DATED FEBRUARY 1, 2023 TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS, PROSPECTUS,
    AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION EACH DATED SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
    At the recommendation of Rimrock Capital Management, LLC, the Trust’s investment adviser, the Board of Trustees of the Trust (the “Board”) has approved the liquidation and termination of the Rimrock Core Bond Fund (the “Fund”) as a result of, among other factors, challenges faced by the Fund in conducting its business and operations in an economically viable manner under current market conditions. The Board approved the liquidation pursuant to the provisions of the Trust’s Agreement and Declaration of Trust after making a determination that the liquidation of the Fund is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders.
    Effective immediately, shares of the Fund will no longer be available for purchase by new or existing investors. The liquidation of the Fund is scheduled to take place on or about February 28, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    On or before the Liquidation Date, the Fund will seek to convert substantially all of its respective portfolio securities and other assets to cash or cash equivalents. Therefore, the Fund may depart from its stated investment objectives and policies as it prepares to liquidate its assets and distribute them to shareholders. Any shares of the Fund outstanding on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed on that date. As soon as practicable after the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute pro rata to the Fund’s shareholders of record, as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date, all of the remaining assets of the Fund, after paying, or setting aside the amount to pay, any expenses and liabilities of the Fund. At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem their shares of the Fund pursuant to the procedures set forth under “How to Sell Your Fund Shares” in the Funds’ prospectus.
    The Fund has the ability to distribute income and/or net capital gains on or prior to the Liquidation Date in order to reduce Fund-level taxes. For taxable shareholders, the automatic redemption on the Liquidation Date should generally be treated like other redemptions of shares, that is, as a sale by the shareholder that may result in a gain or loss to the shareholder for U.S. federal income tax purposes. Shareholders should contact their tax advisor to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation.
    Please retain this supplement with your Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information.
  • The Last Ten Days Have Been the Hottest in a While (2023 Market Observations)
    Glad to see @MikeM keeps such punctilious records. FWIW I record only year-end portfolio change. As long as my office app doesn’t get hacked, I’m well fortified (with numbers). But couldn’t tell you what happened in any particular month. Of course, there are the charts.
    Haven’t looked yet at Catch’s latest chart. But will do so. Thanks @catch22 & @Yogibearbull for your labors.
    Edit: Geez - If I’m reading Catch’s chart correctly, it looks like a peak in early 2022. Perhaps the Wikipedia article hasn’t been updated. Also could be one gives the intra-day high and the other the closing high.
    @hank, Twin Peaks :)
    image
  • The Last Ten Days Have Been the Hottest in a While (2023 Market Observations)
    Well, Yogi and I are playing with charts at the same time. As Yogi noted, both late 2021 and early 2022 found high points.
    Note: the below chart is NAV prices WITH distributions included. SPY had a distribution on Dec. 17, 2021.
    SPY chart, all of 2021 and 2022 for a quick view, too.
  • The Last Ten Days Have Been the Hottest in a While (2023 Market Observations)
    @hank, Twin Peaks :)
    Now that I look, Yahoo's historical data shows the S&P500 peaked on Jan.3 2022 at 4786. I know my personal accounts peaked on Nov.8 2021. What-ever. Seems like a long long time ago. Haven't recovered yet.
  • The Last Ten Days Have Been the Hottest in a While (2023 Market Observations)
    See SP500 chart here (shown is 1-yr default; switch to 2-yr for the point here), https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15747642221
    There was indeed a peak in 11/2021 that was high at the time, but then, 01/2022 peak was higher. So, now, we can say that SP500 peaked in 01/2022. Charts are there for all to see. Searching old stories is useless as they won't be rewritten.
  • Must’ve been a “melt-up” near the end today …
    I think +0.25% rate rise is baked-in. Was the ending on 31 Jan before the market-closing a reaction to yesterday's stinky poopy day?
    I think the markets were (prematurely) celebrating tomorrow’s FOMC decision to raise the overnight lending rate by only .25%
    “Party hearty …” :)
  • The Last Ten Days Have Been the Hottest in a While (2023 Market Observations)
    From CNN
    ”The top index of US stocks hit an all-time high in January 2022. It was downhill from there. The S&P 500 lost 19.4% over the past 12 months, notching its worst year since 2008.”
    Strange? Is CNN wrong here - or are we possibly talking about intra-day high vs closing high?
  • Must’ve been a “melt-up” near the end today …
    I think +0.25% rate rise is baked-in. Was the ending on 31 Jan before the market-closing a reaction to yesterday's stinky poopy day?
  • Must’ve been a “melt-up” near the end today …
    Unemployment uptrends
    Inflation improved
    Uncle Powell likely 0.25% tomorrow and a other 0.25%?next few months
    Hard to say what will happen
    Market ran harshed/ melt up anticipated futures events past 3 4 wks
    Everyone of friends and their mamas/papa's cousins were shorting the past 2 3 wks and got burnt very badly... ***when the tide recedes we will know whom are swimming naked short***
    Not sure who is right, mburry short master say sale, Jim Cramer say we are in bull market...