Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Anyone Buying Funds at E*Trade?
    There seem to be several "mostly closed" funds that are listed as open at E*Trade. Closed funds often have a loophole - that you can open a new account if you are investing through an advisor who already has money with the fund. (Another common exception is investing directly with the fund.)
    So I'm wondering whether these funds are really open to DIY investors, or whether you need to be working with a Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor, or whether a personal rep as @fundly mentioned suffices, or ...
    Here are some (semi) closed funds that E*Trade shows as open:
    ARTJX - investor class (1.31% ER), $1K min
    APDJX - advisor class (1.15% ER), $0 min
    (Other closed Artisan funds, e.g. ARTFX, ARTKX are closed at E*Trade.)
    RPHYX - retail class (1.14% ER), $100 min
    RPHIX - inst class (0.89% ER), $100K min
    CIPNX - inst class (1.01% ER), $0 min
    (The more expensive advisor class CIPSX is closed to new investors.)
    DHMAX - inv class (1.21% ER), $2.5K min
    (Another closed DH fund, DHLAX, is closed at E*Trade.)
    Franklin Templeton - cheaper Advisor shares of some funds are open (e.g. FGADX, FRDAX); most brokerages sell more expensive A shares NTF. Also open are institutional shares of some Salomon Bros/Smith Barney legacy funds (now branded Clearbridge), such as SAIFX and SBLYX.
    Invesco - older, cheaper Investor shares of some funds are open (e.g. LCEIX, FSTEX); most brokerages sell more expensive A shares NTF
    PEMGX - A shares, NTF (0.93% ER), $1K min
    PCBIX - inst class (0.67% ER), $0 min
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Learned from past drawdowns that losing to a lesser degree provides a shorter time to fully recover and respond appropriately without triggering panic selling. Some funds may take 4-5 years just to reach breakeven point. Kind of like the hare and tortoise race.
    Yes, always good to limit losses. The math works against you on the way back up as has been pointed out here many times.
    Example - a 25% loss requires roughly a 33% gain to get back to break-even.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Thanks @hank, good information. Learned from past drawdowns that losing to a lesser degree provides a shorter time to fully recover and respond appropriately without triggering panic selling. Some funds may take 4-5 years just to reach breakeven point. Kind of like the hare and tortoise race.
  • BREIT vs SREIT - What Investors Should Know
    UC invests $4 billion in a special class I of BREIT that will guarantee 11.25%+ return over 6 years. Sort of an expensive financing for BREIT. UC reached out to Blackstone/BX for the deal.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstone-breit-gets-4-billion-133750550.html
  • NYT: Russia’s War Could Make It India’s World
    @kings53man The problem with the "strong leader" is the strongman leader is the hallmark of fascism. In fact, one could say the "only I can fix it" strongman leader is the defining characteristic of fascism. Usually, the leader's popularity and strength comes from oppressing or demonizing a minority within a nation and/or outside the nation. I prefer squabbling democracies where no one person has too much power. One thing the past few years have taught us is how fragile such democracies are. In fact, I think the world would be better off if nations didn't have a single leader at all such as a president or prime minister. Throw in a requirement that every politician has to put their own children and/or themselves on the front lines of any military conflict and the world would be a much more peaceful place.
  • TSLA
    Down 11.5% this morning on top of a near 73% loss in 2022.
    “When it rains, it pours …”
    https://www.webullapp.com/news-detail/7961738086763520
    https://www.webull.com/news/7954778224053248
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    With respect to PRWCX’s time horizon, Giroux stated several times that he invest with the goal to match the return of S&P500 within a full market cycle but with less volatility. He has done that more than once. Question is his fund is much bigger now, can he still meet his goals going forward?
    -
    Here’s PRWCX’s expected time-horizon as stated by Giroux in PRWCX’s Semi-Annual Report - June 31, 2022:
    “Before we discuss fund performance, I would like to review the three goals of the Capital Appreciation Fund:
    (1) Generate strong risk-adjusted returns annually
    (2) Preserve shareholder capital over the intermediate term (i.e., three years)
    (3) Generate equity-like returns with less risk than that of the overall market over a full market cycle (i.e., normally five years)”

    -
    As I understand Giroux’s words, they mean that if you had money in his fund on January 3, 2022 when the markets / fund topped-out, you can expect to get back to “break-even” no later than January 3, 2025. That would appear to be in nominal dollars - not inflation adjusted. Hypothetically, should inflation run at a 5% annual rate over that 3-year period, you’d be “poorer” in purchasing power by about 15%. (Of course, Giroux seems to view this as a worst case scenario.)
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Fidelity posted their outlook for 2023 including several possible scenarios.
    https://fidelity.com/insights/markets-economy/whats-next-stocks?print=true
    One needs to consider the possibilities as one reposition his/ her portfolio.
    With respect to PRWCX’s time horizon, Giroux stated several times that he invest with the goal to match the return of S&P500 within a full market cycle but with less volatility. He has done that more than once. Question is his fund is much bigger now, can he still meet his goals going forward?
  • NYT: Russia’s War Could Make It India’s World
    Chenai is home to Kollywood. Not exactly a hotbed of the sort of Hindu nationalism Modi's BJP is all about.
    For those that don't subscribe to the NYT the story can be found here>
  • NYT: Russia’s War Could Make It India’s World
    Another excerpt:
    The Ukraine war, compounding the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, has fueled the country’s ascent. Together they have pushed corporations to make global supply chains less risky by diversifying toward an open India and away from China’s surveillance state. They have accentuated global economic turbulence from which India is relatively insulated by its huge domestic market.
    Those factors have contributed to buoyant projections that India, now No. 5, will be the world’s third-largest economy by 2030, behind only the United States and China.
    On a recent visit to India, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the United States wanted to “diversify away from countries that present geopolitical and security risks to our supply chain,” singling out India as among “trusted trading partners.”….
    …. If the Biden administration has been unhappy with India’s business-as-usual approach to Mr. Putin since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has also been accepting of it — American realpolitik, as China rises, demands that Mr. Modi not be alienated.
    At the end of my stay, I traveled down to Chennai on the southeastern coast.
    The atmosphere is softer there. The economy is booming. The electronics manufacturer Foxconn is rapidly expanding production capacity for Apple devices, building a hostel for 60,000 workers on a 20-acre site near the city.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    I will invest hugely in bond OEFs in 2023, as I have done in the last several years.
    But, I must see an uptrend to be invested. I think 2023 will be a good year.
    You can make several % more in managed bond fund, this is where they shine. Think DODIX for higher rated bonds, HY Munis and good Multi (where I find my best ideas).
    I made 9.7% in 2022, mostly in 3 HY munis trades. See ORNAX (chart). The 3 trades were several days in May + July and several weeks in Nov. All are based on T/A.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    @LarryB - I took no offense at your “couched” suggestion. As I said earlier I think it’s “a bit too darkly suggestive.” Sometimes it feels like walking on eggs around here. :)
    I sold PRWCX mid-year after owning it since the 90s. Not because I don’t like the fund. Just because as I’ve aged I’ve grown more conservative. Rather than holding on to both DODBX and PRWCX in my growth sleeve in relatively small amounts I opted just to hang with DODBX. I think the ride with DODBX will be smoother (in part due to the short position @Yogibearbull outlined.) But I’d guess longer term PRWCX will perform better - as it has in the past. Their short position (on the S&P 500) started at 5% and over the past year or so has fallen to just 2% of portfolio. What they have said (paraphrasing here) is that overall they view(ed) the S&P as overvalued, but that they have found bargains in other areas of the market. Makes perfect sense to me.
    I can’t help wondering whether increased “limelight” (public attention) on a manager might lead them to make more mistakes than they would otherwise, whether because they feel somehow compelled to produce outsized returns to go along with that increased attention - or whether they said something in an interview (ie “the 10-year doesn’t get above 2.5% in the next year.”) and are therefore more reluctant to admit their miscalculation and alter the approach that statement supports?
    Giroux is a proven winner. Rough year last year ( -12%), but PRWCX will do fine longer term. And, absolutely, I feel both he and TRP have the highest integrity.
    I’ve never provided my return stats (not that they’re that great) for various reasons, but in part because I don’t want to feel like I’m competing with other posters when making buy-sell decisions. I suspect that it would cause me to take on more risk than prudent and also be more reluctant to admit error and alter course. Thanks to all those who do provide such information, including @MikeM. It adds to the discussions immeasurably.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Here are some snippets from the DODBX Morningstar Analyst Report dated 06/16/2022.
    "In May 2022, a newly formed balanced fund
    committee, which features a well-rounded mix of the
    firm’s equity, fixed-income, and quantitative veterans,
    officially took over management of the fund. The
    committee started as a working group following the
    fund’s sharp losses during the 2020 coronavirus-driven
    bear market."

    "In 2021, it no longer forced the underlying
    stock and bond sleeves to fully mimic Gold-rated Dodge
    & Cox Stock DODGX and Gold-rated Dodge & Cox
    Income DODIX."

    "Other changes the new committee enacted since 2020
    include allowing a small short position in the S&P 500 to
    counter potential market selloffs. They can also sell
    covered-calls on some stocks the analysts believe are
    at or near full value."

    "The increased focus on managing risk is a welcome
    improvement, but a longer track record of execution
    would increase our confidence that the changes will
    lead to a smoother ride going forward."
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    @MikeM and Hank. To clarify I did not mean to imply any nefarious intentions on the part of Mr Giroux. Running a multi billion dollar pile of money is entirely different than managing a million or two. All that money has to go someplace. He can hardly place his non equity funds into CD’s T bills and money markets to avoid losses during a period of rapidly rising rates. And he might have a longer horizon than a 75 year old too. Just one guys opinion.
  • The PCE index, an inflation measure closely watched by the Fed, slowed to 5.5% in November
    PK twitter thread today (historical-facing):
    ... one way to think about inflation is that it's like a sports event where everyone stands up to get a better view of the action — which is collectively self-defeating.
    Controlling inflation by inducing a recession is like stopping the action on the field until everyone sits down again. It works, but at a cost.
    Much better if we could get collective agreement by everyone to sit down without stopping the game. That's hard to achieve but not always impossible.
    The more or less painless 1985 Bruno disinflation in Israel was pretty much exactly that: all the major parties agreed to stop trying to leapfrog each other, and inflation came down right away.

    Some commenters point out problems with some sectors' having greater ability to stand up than others, and then there are always tall people in front, or at least the advantage of being taller than the person behind you ....
  • Gambling in 2022
    Maybe 50/50 HSGFX/BRK.B? Dunno
    HSGFX +17.3% 1 YR
    BRK.B +2.7% 1 YR
    Combined: Performance +10%
    Nice going @BaseballFan
    Now - Please advise on where to put our money in 2023 :)
  • I bonds
    @Sven, as noted before, TIPS held to maturity capture initial real rate plus CPI, but TIPS funds are affected by both rates and duration. I have mentioned 5-yr TIPS often as it is easier to hold them to maturity; individual TIPS will also see fluctuations in brokerage statements but will pay up at maturity (par + inflation adjustment).
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=VTIP&compare=$$CPI,TIP&id=p68844356064
  • Gambling in 2022
    I ended up down -11.41% in 2022, but that includes IRA withdrawals and some rearranging through the year. By that I mean exchanges between funds. I put a hefty amount into junk. I should have waited longer to do it. My favorite baby, PRWCX, ended-up just within the top 25% in its category, but still lost a bunch for the year. Still managed a goodly year-end pay-out. That's a GOOD thing, in a T-IRA.
    I did not want to be out of the Market. I am very well aware that a big bunch of money is either made or missed on just several days per year, when irrational run-ups happen. PRISX disappointed. I'm holding it on a vastly reduced basis. Going to let my 5-stock stable run, in the brokerage acct. TRP won't allow buys into OEFs in a different fund company for less than $5k. That sucks wet dog fur, by the way.
  • 2023 to be a tough year: IMF
    +1. @hank
    It pays to be informed. Yet huge, big macro predictions like that one from the IMF must indeed be taken with a 50-pound bag of salt. There are so many variables. So many surprises can happen. What if the war against Ukraine by the Poot-bag comes to an end? What if we could suddenly begin to actually trust the cooked information coming out of China re: covid (and everything else?) What if Africa became educated, stable and on a path to sustained development, without the corruption and political instability which makes so many of them "shit-hole" countries? Same goes for Philippines and elsewhere. What if humanity as a whole (with a "w") suddenly woke up and saw the benefits of long-term thinking instead of short-term profits as the primary driver for decisions? What if we could finally manage to see each other in each other's face?
    From The Vatican, lately. @LewisBraham wrote about it:
    "No investment of money is morally neutral; “either God’s kingdom is being advanced by the assets we deploy, or it is being neglected and undermined,” said a new Vatican document."
    Don't like the term, "God's Kingdom?" Think of it as The Common Good or Human Progress or Human Ethical Evolution.
  • What helped and what hurt in 2022
    Many moves made in late 2021 that helped/distracted this year.
    1. Sold all bond funds to stable value, CDs, T bills and money market (just as we need 529 fund for our kids in college)
    2. Bought commodity futures and energy and sold half of it last month
    3. Sold all EM funds and bought conservative value overseas funds
    4. Rotated from growth to value funds as value lagged for so many years (sheer dumb luck).
    5. Reduced loss with dividend growth funds
    5. Alternatives were flat.
    6. Precious metals were flat in light of high inflation. Bitcoins must attracted the $.
    For the year, we have a negative single digit loss. Hopefully we are in good position to do better in 2023.