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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What helped and what hurt in 2022
    Best portfolio performance enhancer: exchanging DODIX for stable value fund in late 2021.
    Worst portfolio performance detractor: holding VWILX in 2022 (-30.79% return).
    My portfolio consisted of ~70% stocks and ~30% bonds/cash at the start of 2022.
    Here are the 2022 Personal Rates of Return according to Vanguard and Fidelity.
    Accounts are listed in descending order based on their total value.
    401k
    -8.02%
    Taxable account #1
    -8.50%
    Roth IRA
    -17.10%
    Taxable account #2
    -13.11%
    HSA
    Rate of Return info not available
    My overall portfolio value (includes 401(k), Roth IRA, HSA contributions) declined 8.18% in 2022.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    @hank, I saw LB's article. All I read is saying it may be or may be pretty close to thinking it may be time to consider bond funds again.
    @MikeM - Yes, LB’s article seems to make the case for bonds - particularly floating rate types of lower credit quality. David Giroux is one proponent noted in the article. What I find interesting is that Giroux isn’t very far off from what he said a year ago. I posted a thread in January of last year on the Barron’s Roundtable and in it I quoted Giroux’s words:
    Giroux: “The asset class today with the most attractive risk/reward profile is leveraged loans. I’ve taken leveraged loans to 12% of my portfolio …”
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59086/a-glimpse-into-barron-s-roundtable-part-1-january-17-print-edition
    Somewhat paradoxically, his fund lost 12% during 2022. And, as if to further cement his bond credentials, in the same interview Giroux avowed ….
    “I would make a bet that the 10-year doesn’t get above 2.5% in the next year.”
  • I bonds
    My plan WAS to buy I-Bonds in 2023, but stingy rate on 11/1/22 changed that. IMO, 5-yr TIPS held to maturity are better (1.66% real rate plus CPI) OR I may just feed the bear a bit (-:).
    Same here. Plus, the new rate in May seems pretty likely to be even more underwhelming.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    @MikeM I'll be watching pricing in the below list to discover when and where the money is traveling. The FED can control the short duration end for yields, but the markets may control the other durations.
    Last weeks pricing performance.
    --- AGG = -1% / -13.02% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = -.01% / -1% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.18% / -3.88% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.58% / -9.5% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -1% / -15.2% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -.46% / -12.2% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = -.22% / -4.47% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -1.1% / -31.7% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = -2.55% / -31.2% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -3.3% / -39.2% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -3.67 / -41.3% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = +5.4% / +93.3% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = -7.9/ -72.6% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = -.58% / -13.35% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = -1% / -11% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = -1.52% / -17.9% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 4.26% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
  • I bonds
    @msf, do you write a check of $5k to the IRS.gov with your social security number ? Thanks
    Use IRS Direct Pay: https://www.irs.gov/payments/direct-pay or EFPTS: http://www.eftps.gov/ to make an electronic tax payment.
  • I bonds
    @msf, do you write a check of $5k to the IRS.gov with your social security number ? Thanks
  • I bonds
    Anybody buying this year? Seems like a no brainer
    Are you all in? One can overpay one's taxes by $5K by making an estimated payment on or before January 17th. That enables you to buy an extra $5K in savings bonds with the refund, though they will come in paper form.
    A downside is that you'll lose a couple of months of interest before the savings bonds are issued. Say 2/12 x 4% or about 2/3 of a percent in forgone interest. Still seems worthwhile.
    Unfortunately, with what has become typical government efficiency, last year the USPS lost one of the dozen paper bonds sent and the Treasury Dept has yet to complete processing my claim for the missing $50 savings bond.
  • I bonds
    The real yield for 5-Yr TIPS is attractive.
    If real yields are still attractive later this year (after my T-Bills mature), I may purchase 5-Yr TIPS.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    I can tell you that I'm 31% in bonds, all in funds--- including some that sit in PRWCX. The other two are junk: TUHYX and PRCPX. I am, likewise, looking for better dividends than the safer CDs and Treasuries offer. And at this point, the damage has been done, I think. TUHYX, by the way, has a brand-new twin: an ETF version. It's THYF. How they came up with that share-price, I dunno. It's over $50 at the moment. Dividends are higher than in the standard OEF, too. FR/BL funds turn me off after my experience with the TRP particular flavor. Supposed to stay level, eh? But the thing fell, even if not by much. Seems to me even junk bonds have just about reached their nadir in terms of share price. I'm not in it, but AGEPX is a Frontier EM fund I like to track. The yield on that puppy is astronomical.
  • I bonds
    My plan WAS to buy I-Bonds in 2023, but stingy rate on 11/1/22 changed that. IMO, 5-yr TIPS held to maturity are better (1.66% real rate plus CPI) OR I may just feed the bear a bit (-:).
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Good question @MikeM … Mine is not a direct (or likely helpful) answer…
    Since mid-year I’ve preferred intermediate term investment grade bonds over cash. In particular I’ve used the etf GNMA as a cash replacement. Not because I hope to make any money on it (though I might), but because I consider good quality bonds a better hedge against sharply falling equity valuations than cash. Good quality bonds should increase in value during turbulent times as investors seek safety. No guarantee of course! The fact that investment grade intermediate and longer dated bonds are now yielding 5% or higher certainly makes them more attractive as a hedge than they were a year or two ago.
    So my preference for bonds has to do with overall portfolio construction and trying to reduce volatility (there’s that word :)) and counter potentially greater equity losses. I’d only suggest bonds if that is your main goal. Currently, less than 20% of portfolio is allocated to fixed income. Mostly that’s in GNMA, DODLX, PRIHX and JPIB. But there’s roughly another 20% in CVSIX (convertible bond) or other funds which, for portfolio construction purposes, are part of the alternative sleeve.
    Your question really goes to the heart of where the economy is going to go over the next year or more and how the Federal reserve responds. I’m afraid no one can predict that with any certainty. However, I think an actively managed bond fund (having low fees) a better choice than an ETF if overall return is the main goal. My predilection for bond ETFs is because I want to be able to move in and out without any trading restrictions.
    -
    * MikeM may have been referencing an article by @LewisBraham in this week’s Barron’s in which he quotes David Giroux on the subject. “Funds: Taking a Risk to Earn Fatter Yields”
  • “Year-End Review” with Louis Rukeyser - WSW / Air Date: December 29, 2000
    In 2000 the markets fared somewhat worse than in 2022. Lou’s opening monologue attempts to put things into perspective. Perhaps striking from among the causes noted for the sharp equity selloff were - Aggressive Fed tightening and “The election that would not die.”
    Opens with blank screen / test pattern. Slide ahead to 2:00 minutes to skip commercials and begin monologue.
    https://americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aacip-394-75dbs7t6?start=0&end=1147.71
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    What are your thoughts here. I know we have some really knowledgeable bond people here at MFO and I' like to hear everyone's opinion on the subject and if you are buying.
    I've been out of specific bond funds for about a year and a half (except for RPHYX). I'm considering getting back in now with the hope the worst is over or close. What are other's thoughts? I'm specifically looking at floating rate at this point, piggybacking onto statements I've seen from David Giroux and others in Barrons. If I'm looking for an early trend, the last quarter of 2022 was steadily increasing for this sector. I'm considering using SAMBX.
    I know the safer route is CD's and treasuries at 4-5%, but I'm hoping with a little added risk, high single digit returns may be obtainable.
    What are the thoughts? Pros and cons?
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Yes, I'm still holding my bond funds into '23. TUHYX and PRCPX. Same logic as @hank above. I hit a personal, psychological dollar-limit in TUHYX, so I opened up a position in the other one. Still holding financials via PRISX, but at quite a reduced size.... Happy New Year. Overcast here this morning, but no rain predicted. At 8:27, we've got 73 degrees. We live right behind the hospital building, which is behind this church, though that's not "my" church. The hospital has the orange color on its top edge.
    ALOHA!
    image
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    GULP !!! Well, I was hoping for a full on BOND rally in the last week of this year. :) Oh, well; couldn't expect to recover 13% average losses in plain jane, broad-based bond funds in this last week of this business year, with two holidays and shortened trading periods. Bonds in all durations gave back some gains from recent weeks. Bonds, yields, inflation continue to be discussed in various threads; which will impact bond pricing going forward. I've nothing constructive to add this week; and will await the mood swings of the global cash flows of the big players and their 'bets', going into the New Year of mystery.
    NOTE: Relative to bonds and no market support in 2022; a 50/50 mix of a broad based U.S. equity index and a broad based U.S. bond index had a combined total return of -16.32 % for 2022. The indexes I used are VITPX and VBMPX ,which are inside a 529 college account.
    ---Several selected bond funds returns since October 25, 2022. I'll retain this date, as it is a recent inflection point when bonds began to have positive price moves. We'll need to watch if this was just a 'blip'.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, December 26 - December 30, 2022
    --- AGG = -1% / -13.02% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = -.01% / -1% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.18% / -3.88% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.58% / -9.5% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -1% / -15.2% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -.46% / -12.2% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = -.22% / -4.47% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -1.1% / -31.7% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = -2.55% / -31.2% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -3.3% / -39.2% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -3.67 / -41.3% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = +5.4% / +93.3% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = -7.9/ -72.6% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = -.58% / -13.35% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = -1% / -11% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = -1.52% / -17.9% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 4.26% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. The rate of rise in the yield remained flat this week.

    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Riverpark Short Term High Yield - divs and availability
    They settle on a relatively consistent, usually conservative monthly distribution early in the year, with the result that most years, there's excess income to distribute at the end of the year.
    This is by design. Many CEFs including PDI have a managed distribution policy. It's a little hard to see this in the prospectus, but it is there.
    Closed-end fund managed distribution programs are designed to facilitate regular, relatively consistent distributions to shareholders, typically by:
    1. Estimating a fund’s long-term total return (both income and long-term appreciation, net of expenses)
    2. Setting a regular monthly or quarterly distribution amount intended to match the fund’s total distributions to its total return over time
    https://www.nuveen.com/en-us/insights/closed-end-funds/understanding-managed-distributions
    From the PDI prospectus:
    The Fund makes regular monthly cash distributions to Common Shareholders at a rate based upon the past and projected net income of the Fund. Subject to applicable law, the Fund may fund a portion of its distributions with gains from the sale of portfolio securities and other sources. The Fund’s dividend policy, as well as the dividend rate that the Fund pays on its Common Shares, may vary as portfolio and market conditions change, and will depend on a number of factors.
    RPHYX/ RPHIX doesn't manage its distributions. Generally, what you see (earn as income) is what you get (as income divs).
    ----
    David Sherman's CrossingBridge Pre-Merger SPAC ETF, ticker SPC, also gave a .24/share distribution yesterday. Nice Christmas present from these 2 holdings.
    I hadn't taken a close look at SPC. Interesting fund. Follows Sherman's RPHYX approach of investing in "remnants", but in a different pool ("money good" SPACs, i.e. ones "trading at par value or at a discount" ).
    These divs come out of NAV, unlike divs in funds that declare divs daily. Whether the fund sells more assets to pay a larger div, or the shareholder sells shares to generate the same cash flow, the effect is the same.
    This is why I prefer to focus on total return. Though I do understand that receiving a dividend (especially a large one) "automatically" somehow feels different.
  • Dividend Paying with Funds
    Fund: I'm not unhappy with my TRP Equity-Income fund: PRFDX. Quarterly dividends there. The ETF version is TEQI. (PRFDX for 2022 is down by -3.57%.)
    Like @Mark above, I can't tell whether you're ONLY looking for funds, or perhaps also single stocks.
    I own and am pleased with ET. But lots of people don't like those Limited Partnerships because the K-1 tax statement always comes very late. So, you can't file your taxes early, if that's a priority. This is my first year with it. I've not had to deal with that, yet. When the K-1 comes, it comes, I guess.
    You might want to look at FNLC. (down for 2022 by -5.55%.) and NHYDY. (Down for 2022 by -4.2%.) Very good dividend payers. I do not own FNLC. But everything about it looks solid to me.
    My junk bonds are paying great dividends these days. PRCPX and TUHYX. Price is depressed in '22 and into 2023. But remember the 1st Rule: "Buy low, sell high."
    THYF is the ETF version of TUHYX. It's very new. TRP website is useless about it, almost zero info, statistics. But WSJ webpage says it's paying a 9% yield. Share price is at $50.39. Good luck. Or, "break a leg," or something like that.
  • Riverpark Short Term High Yield - divs and availability
    Pimco has a habit of making special December income distributions, larger than the previous months' in their OEFs and CEFs (maybe their ETFs too, don't have much experience with them). They settle on a relatively consistent, usually conservative monthly distribution early in the year, with the result that most years, there's excess income to distribute at the end of the year. No idea if that's what's at work w/ Riverpark.
    Two Pimco examples from this year: PDI had a consistent 0.2205 income distribution through the year and then issued a special income distribution of 0.65 Dec 27; PIMIX (which somewhat uncharacteristically boosted the monthly twice during the year) put out a special income distribution of 0.1036 the same day.
    I'd guess that funds with shorter durations (and/or high turnover) during a period of rising rates might tend to land in that situation -- as they replace lower yielding securities with higher yielding ones.
  • Dividend Paying with Funds
    I couldn't tell from your question whether you were looking for funds or individual equities.
    If you want single stocks there's this:
    2022's Dividend Aristocrats List: All 65 Stocks
    These dividend aristocrats have increased their payments annually for decades.
    NOBL - is a dividend aristocrat ETF which is comprised of many of these.
  • Dividend Paying with Funds
    Been stalking several ETFs with decent Divy payouts:
    FDL - 4.7% estimated distrib yld, 4.3% 30 day SEC yld pays Qtrly
    SCHD - 3.4% estimated, 3.2% 30 day SEC yield pays Qtrly
    WDIV (Global)- 6.7% estimated, 4.75% 30 day SEC yield pays Qtrly
    Alternate suggestion:
    JEPI (option income) - 11.6% est, 14% 30 day SEC yield pays MONTHLY