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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Uncle Warren signs off....
    Buffett is a shrewd and patient investor. Understatement maybe?
    A very sensible and level-headed individual. I wonder if he could have translated his skills over into the political forum. We don't have many such people as leaders.
    95 years old - god bless him.
  • Uncle Warren signs off....

    His apparent farewell letter, at least on behalf of his role at Berkshire. (Some interesting nuggests toward the end, I might add.)
    https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/nov1025.pdf
  • Catastrophe Bond Funds
    At Schwab one can buy CBYYX for $1 with no transaction fee ($49.95 if held less than 90 days). https://client.schwab.com/app/research/#/mf/CBYYX
    These funds are not risk-free. Example - recent Melissa hurricane was terrible, it hit Jamaica, but... then it moved north rather than to Florida.
  • Catastrophe Bond Funds
    https://www.artemis.bm/news/catastrophe-bond-ucits-fund-returns-accelerate-to-8-88-after-october/
    The above link has a chart of the returns for the CAT bond index going back to 2011. The past three years were by far the best and all because it was a “hard” pricing market going forward from Hurricaine Ian in 2022. Now all we are hearing about is the ‘soft” pricing market for 2026. I didn’t think we would see double digit returns in 2025. There is a seasonality in CAT because you are paid for the risk of holding through hurricane season. As those who have held also know, Fridays are when they are priced and there have been outsized gains during the year on Fridays especially going into and in Hurricaine season. I would think anyone just getting into CAT have missed the boat and gains going forward will be more like the gains in the above chart ex the past three years, The momentum has already slowed recently. But I could be wrong because of the still outsized yields on these funds They are a good diversifier and not subject to the whims of the stock and bond market. I hold some CBYYX but it is not a huge position and if the momentum continues to abate will sell.
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance
    @FD1000 said,
    BTW, the Original Medicare Medigap went from $145 to $206 in the last 3 years. That's over a 40%.
    I believe @FD1000 is referring to Part B increases.

    No.
    Supplement Insurance (Medigap) Plan G policies.
    @FD1000 Thank you for your partial response to my question. Could you please clarify which insurance company’s premium for Plan G increased from $145 to $206 over the past three years? Also, what age did you use to calculate these premiums?
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance
    @FD1000 said,
    BTW, the Original Medicare Medigap went from $145 to $206 in the last 3 years. That's over a 40%.
    I believe @FD1000 is referring to Part B increases.
    No.
    Supplement Insurance (Medigap) Plan G policies.
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance
    Yes, they do. Which is why the I calculated the increase in the Humana PFFS plan not as infinite ($0 2025 to $27 in 2026) but as 26%, all in.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/200450/#Comment_200450
    Some plans actually "give back" a portion of that Part B premium, so on paper people may pay less, or no, Part B premiums. But that "give back" is a bit of financial legerdemain. It's not dissimilar to annuity "bonus" plans where you get an immediate credit. Either way, the seller gets their money back and often more. Medicare "give back" plans may come with higher deductibles or higher caps or more onerous drug plan fee schedules or ...
    Comparing apples to apples is not an easy task. Which gets us back to evaluating insurance plans or funds, trading off one type of risk against another. What might be more important to one person (e.g. max drawdown or max out of pocket) might not matter much to another. That other person might be a long term investor willing to wait for a fund to recover its value, or a healthy young person very unlikely to have large health expenses.
  • US airlines cancel flights after aviation agency directive to cut air traffic
    They should start by grounding all private aircraft. The shutdown would be over tomorrow or Monday. (Can't remember if those clowns work on the weekend.) It's been 37 days since they even showed up in DC.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/10/government-shutdown-private-jets.html
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance
    @FD1000 said,
    BTW, the Original Medicare Medigap went from $145 to $206 in the last 3 years. That's over a 40%.
    I believe @FD1000 is referring to Part B increases. Here's the history of those increases;
    2021 $148.50
    2022 $170.10
    2023 $164.90
    2024 $174.80
    2025 $185
    2026 $206
    part-b-premium-increase-history#Medicare-Part-B-premiums-in-detail
    @Mona asked,
    @FD1000 Which company had over a 40% incrrease?
    Answer:
    Company = US Giverment
  • US airlines cancel flights after aviation agency directive to cut air traffic
    "In a procedural vote, senators advanced a House-passed bill that will be amended to fund
    the government until January 30 and include a package of three full-year appropriations bills."
    "If the Senate eventually passes the amended measure, it still must be approved
    by the House of Representatives and sent to President Donald Trump for his signature,
    a process that could take several days."
    "Under a deal struck with a handful of Democrats who rebuffed their party’s leadership,
    Republicans agreed to a vote in December on extending subsidies under the Affordable Care Act.
    The subsidies, which help lower-income Americans pay for private health insurance and are due
    to expire at the end of the year, have been a Democratic priority during the funding battle."
    "The vote to advance the bill passed by a 60-40 margin,
    the minimum needed to overcome a Senate filibuster."
    https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/trump-takes-aim-obamacare-historic-federal-shutdown-hits-40th-day-2025-11-09/
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance
    Humana's HMO plan H4141-017-003 isn't an option.
    If your wife's employer(?) is giving you added benefits but offering fewer options, I can't speak to that. H4141 is generally available to subscribers in most of Georgia (Metro Georgia). See first page of Summary of Benefits.
    https://www.humana-medicare.com/BenefitSummary/2026PDFs/H4141017003SB26.pdf
    All the HMOs don't have all our doctors. That's a no-go.
    "Staying flexible" only goes so far. I'd do the same thing rather than be flexible with doctors. Though insisting on particular providers comes at the cost of higher premiums and/or coinsurance and/or caps.
    Every HMO has a rating of 3.5/5. Every PPO is 4.5/5. The PFFS is better than all, IMO.
    H8145, Humana's PFFS in Georgia, has a 3.5* rating for 2026. (This is a drop from its 4.0 star rating for 2025.)
    https://www.humana-medicare.com/BenefitSummary/2026PDFs/H8145GHA09ECHH26.pdf
    There are 13 Humana PPOs for 2026 in Fulton County, GA (Atlanta) (your county may vary). Three of them have 4.5 stars; the remaining 10 have 3.5 stars. Not that I have any idea what the stars mean in pragmatic terms.
    https://www.medicare.gov/plan-compare/#/search-results?plan_type=PLAN_TYPE_MAPD&fips=13121&zip=30305&year=2026&lang=en&page=1
    What happens if we vacation in CA and I get a heart attack? No HMO covers me in-network.
    From the HMO summary of benefits above:
    HMO Travel Benefit
    Members may receive in-network benefits when services are received from a participating HMO National Network provider when traveling to other states.
    The last surgery I had, the doctor and the facility were not in-network. I pay the same as in-network.
    Providers have the option, on a case by case basis, of providing you service on in-network rates. If they do so they agree to the terms of your policy as if they were in-network. That's a downside risk of PFFS plans - you are stuck with providers who are either in-network or are willing to pretend they are for you.
    From Humana's PFFS Evidence of Coverage:
    We have network providers for all services covered under Original Medicare as well as other services not covered by Original Medicare. You can still receive covered services from out-of-network providers (those who don't have a signed contract with our plan), as long as those providers agree to accept our plan's terms and conditions of payment
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance

    BTW, the Original Medicare Medigap went from $145 to $206 in the last 3 years. That's over a 40%
    @FD1000 Which company had over a 40% increase and for what plan letter?
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance
    We have to use my wife's Medicare Advantage choices to get $2100 per year each.
    Humana's HMO plan H4141-017-003 isn't an option.
    Every HMO has a rating of 3.5/5. Every PPO is 4.5/5. The PFFS is better than all, IMO.
    All the HMOs don't have all our doctors. That's a no-go.
    What happens if we vacation in CA and I get a heart attack? No HMO covers me in-network.
    The last surgery I had, the doctor and the facility were not in-network. I pay the same as in-network.
    Case closed. My MOOP is $6700. So far I have saved + investing about $20K.
    Add my wife and in 10 years, it would be over $150K. I will take the chance.
    BTW, the Original Medicare Medigap went from $145 to $206 in the last 3 years. That's over a 40% increase.
    Income investing doesn't exist and never did. There are only 2 parameters. Total performance and risk/SD. When I was younger, I cared about performance. At retirement I cared a lot more about risk-adjusted performance. Although I invest mostly in bonds, I don't care about income.
    I think I will keep what I have done since 2018, investing at least 95% in bond OEFs with extremly low losses . See
    https://ibb.co/zT6QGzSs
    Investing has so many more choices.
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance
    I like the analogy. I understand where you are coming from in terms of risk management.
    In both choosing longer-term investments and health insurance, a person's ability to cover unexpected costs (or losses) is a major consideration. When choosing a healthcare plan, the maximum out-of-pocket is something that I look at. And our typical out-of-pocket annual expenses.
    Example, I save around $2500 a year by opting for my employer's "standard" health care coverage over the "premium" policy. In a very bad year I might hit the worst case scenario of $6000 out-of-pocket. Meanwhile, the standard plan pays a little less over the year. If our health care expenses were very high, and we hit that maximum often, the premium policy would work out better. That is not the case for us, though. After 10 years of saving $2500/yr, we are well ahead.
    Basically, a form of "self-insuring". The same principal applies to high-deductible plans. Which are better suited for younger and healthier people. And those with good financial resources.
    msf said: "If you've bought an HMO and you don't want to switch providers, your out of pocket expenses become uncapped." That is a big dice roll, right there. Which is most likely to happen in the event of a catastrophic illness, really adding to stress at the worst possible time.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just updated all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop through Friday, 7 November 2025. Monthly flow tools updated through October and the daily FLOW tool updated through Friday.
  • Common concerns in shopping for funds and for health insurance
    If you have the same plan as Mona's, it's a PFFS plan. That Humana plan costs more in 2026 than 15 other Humana plans.
    If you are flexible and willing to go to whatever providers are in an HMO network, you can save even more money to invest. Compare the PFFS plan to Humana's HMO plan H4141-017-003.
    It cost $27/mo more ($324) in premiums. That's a sure cost vs. the additional $250 in glasses/contact coverage that one might or might not use. A slight to modest advantage for the HMO.
    The HMO also gives $200/yr in OTC credits. And while the PFFS plan covers for dental work up to $4K instead of $2.5K, the tradeoff is an out-of-pocket cap that's $1.2K worse ($6.7K vs. $5.5K). (Since that dental insurance excludes implants, the $2.5K limit ought to be more than enough.)
    So to maximize savings for additional investing, the HMO plan looks better. Not much better, but better. If you're willing to stay flexible and live with the providers the HMO offers. That's the main "cost" of the HMO.
    There's a similar tradeoff between investing for total return and for income. The former maximizes return (wider pool of investments from which to choose¹). But it comes at a cost of a more variable and likely smaller cash flow (income stream).
    ¹ The key reason that academics and other firms like our firm at Morningstar tend to like the total return approach is that you’re assembling the portfolio without regard to income characteristics. So you’re not artificially constraining the set of securities that you would use to populate that portfolio.
    https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/best-ways-generate-income-retirement
    Both HMO vs. PFFS and total return vs, income investing are balancing potentially higher rewards against greater certainty (in provider availability and cash flow, respectively).
  • Dalio again
    Wake up call, at the conclusion of his latest book. I think, unfortunately, he's correct.
    "I am confident that the next 5-10 years will be a period of enormous changes... Going from now till then will feel like going through a time warp into a very different reality. Countries and companies that are now up will be down, and vice-versa. How we think and what we do will be very different, in ways we cannot possibly anticipate.
    The best way to play this set of circumstances is to play the probabilities, diversify well, and stick with sound fundamentals. The best places to be will be the countries that get these fundamentals right: the ones that educate their people well, so that they are skilled and civil, in an atmosphere of opportunity; with strong national income statements and balance sheets, with internal order rather than disorder... low risk of being in an international war, low risks from destructive acts of Nature, and that will benefit most from changes in technology...
    Unfortunately, I believe that the chances of mutual cooperation (between the Parties in the USA) for our collective benefit are not good... We know from history that extreme factionalism kills. .. Hopefully, this picture makes people worry and motivates them to do what is still in their power to improve things.
    If you're not worried, you need to be, and if you're worried, you don't need to worry. That's because worrying about the things that can go wrong will protect you, while not worrying about them will leave you exposed".
  • US airlines cancel flights after aviation agency directive to cut air traffic
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    More than 1,000 flights canceled on second day of cuts tied to government shutdown- Charlotte, North Carolina, has the most cancellations – at 120
    US airlines again canceled more than 1,000 flights on Saturday, the second day of the Federal Aviation Administration’s order to reduce air traffic because of the government shutdown. So far, the slowdown at many of the nation’s busiest airports hasn’t caused widespread disruptions. But it has deepened the impact felt by what is now the nation’s longest federal shutdown.
    Already there are concerns about the impact on cities and businesses that rely on tourism and the possibility of shipping interruptions that could delay getting holiday items on store shelves. Here’s what to know about the flight reductions:
    • Both of the first two days of the FAA’s slowdown have seen more than 1,000 flights canceled.
    • On Saturday – typically a slow travel day – the airport serving Charlotte, North Carolina, was by far the hardest hit, with 120 arriving and departing flights canceled by midday.
    • Airports in Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Denver and Orlando, Florida, were among the others with the most disruptions. Staffing shortages in Charlotte and Newark, New Jersey, slowed traffic too.
    Not all the cancellations were due to the FAA order, and those numbers represent just a small portion of the overall flights nationwide. But they are certain to rise in the coming days if the slowdown continues. The FAA said the reductions affecting all commercial airlines are starting at 4% of flights at 40 targeted airports and will be bumped up again on Tuesday before hitting 10% of flights on Friday.
    Air traffic controllers have gone without paychecks for nearly a month as the shutdown continues, leading many to call in sick and add to already existing staffing shortages. Most controllers are working mandatory overtime six days a week during the shutdown without pay, and some are taking second jobs to pay their bills, the National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA) has said.
    Other repercussions from the air traffic slowdown might also include higher prices in stores, as nearly half of all US air freight is shipped in the bellies of passenger aircraft. Major flight disruptions could bring higher shipping costs that get passed on to consumers. More losses will ripple through the economy if the slowdown continues – from tourism to manufacturing, said the CEO of Elevate Aviation Group.
    “This shutdown is going to impact everything from cargo aircraft to people getting to business meetings to tourists being able to travel,” he said. “It’s going to hit the hotel taxes and city taxes. There’s a cascading effect that results from this thing.’’