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I've been following Andy since his days at CLSA. I'm a fan of his story telling. However, he's lost a lot of credability over the years. When have you EVER heard Andy NOT be BULLISH on China? There is optimism...and there is being biased or saying what you want to happen. Andy has become much more the latter.And now for a potential China "bull case"...
The following excerpt is from the 'Points of Return' newsletter (John Authers) published today.
That leads to a final question: Why would anyone be bullish about China at present? Its problems are evident, and most international investors will justifiably hate the current political direction. Andy Rothman, investment strategist and veteran China-watcher at Matthews Asia, agrees that watching for progress on Covid Zero, and particularly for a pickup in vaccination rates, which have been falling, is most important. Providing the country can find a way out of lockdowns, he offers the following “bull case” for 2023:
China is likely to remain the only major economy engaged in serious easing, while much of the world is tightening.
Chinese households have been in savings mode since the start of the pandemic, with family bank account balances up 42% from the beginning of 2020.
Those funds should fuel a consumer rebound, and an A-share recovery, as domestic investors hold about 95% of that market.
A reasonable person could conclude that that's what those yield figures, in black and white, are intended to suggest, at the very least. If they do not in fact come to pass . . . .I could easily imagine a 5% or 6% return for this fund over the next year.
The “dry powder” category includes securities such as called bonds and debt maturing in less than 30 days. Called or maturing bonds with an ultra-short period to redemption may provide a misleading representation of portfolio metrics due to the potential large impact on yields from minor pricing variances versus the upcoming redemption price. Investments represent a snapshot of a specific point in time and may not reflect future positioning.
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