Today's CPI and core CPI numbers suggested inflation may have peaked and likely to fall further. Imagine if the numbers came out on the opposite side?
This implies next rate hike will be smaller, 50 bps in December and taper down to 25-25-25 for next few FOMC meetings in 2023, until it reaches some terminal rate, ~5%. I will be patient and buy what is available. It is likely there will be more opportunities in coming months.

@Sven, yes, looking for 3-10 year CDs, and they are all disappearing fast. Snagged some 4.95% non-callables today (3 and 4 year CD terms).
You have any other ideas/suggestions?
Today's activity is spooking me out.

see threads (if possible)
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1590703184799883269
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1590702546322358277

@JD_co, I started a new discussion on October’s CPI #.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60263/october-inflation-report-price-pressures-show-signs-of-cooling#latest
Thanks for the heads up news on CD rates that react quickly. Are you looking for something (non-callable) beyond 2-5 years?

Many follow here, TROW top % gainer in SP500 at +15%+.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TROW&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p41192372971

The S&P500 was up 4% this morning. The 2 yr and 10 yr treasury yields also dropped that move that the broader bond index upward. It is encouraging to all investors.

Consumer prices rose 7.7 percent in the year through October, slower than economists anticipated. Stocks jumped at the sign that the Federal Reserve’s campaign to tame inflation was taking effect.

September’s CPI was at 8.2%. The probability of a smaller rate hike, 50 bps, is likely in December FOMC meeting. Also lay-offs among large companies are taken place as business slows, that reduces the upward pressure on labor cost (service cost) and inflation.
https://nytimes.com/live/2022/11/10/business/inflation-cpi-report

For the week ending on 11/9/22, a big shift for the worse: Bearish became the top sentiment (47.0%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (25.1%; low); neutral became the middle sentiment (27.9%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -22.1% (very low). Investor concerns: Inflation; supply-chain disruptions; recession; the Fed; dollar; crypto-crash (FTX collapse); US election outcome; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (37+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were mixed (cyclicals up, growth down), bonds down, oil down sharply, gold up strongly, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=8&scrollTo=831

It is surprising that in this day and age, what happened could happen. Binance and FTX had a spat. CZ/Binance attacked SBF/FTX, threatened to liquidate holdings of FTX token FTT, caused a crisis of confidence in FTX and sort of a run on FTX. Then Binance rescued FTX for a song ($1 + liabilities) with the contingency of due diligence - who knows if that turns out to be a Musk-ian trap to try to wiggle out of the deal later.
Coinbase/COIN CEO Bryan Armstrong had a long tweet explaining why its operations are different from those of Binance or FTX.
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1590088673726717952
But then, those who relied on what SBF/FTX and CZ/Binance said just a few days ago got burned.

This used to make me laugh. No more. It is dreadfully true.
https://www.forbes.com/quotes/3725/

Rates and the inflation rate probably depend on 1) the unemployment rate ( which probably will not drop as much as expected in a recession, with 3 million long Covid people unable to work), 2) Economic activity if there is a serious more than two quarter recession/depression and 3) Price of Energy and raw materials , artificially inflated by war and politics
I fear 1) and 3) are really unknowns and could make inflation stay far higher than it otherwise might with weakening economic activity, similar to the late 1970s early 1980s
There are so many moving parts. Interest payments on federal debt have increased 25% in less than a year. Does the Gov borrow more money just to pay the interest if rates stay high? Cut benefits including SS to the non-college educated ( even if they vote Trump) ?
What happens when the GOP refuses to increase debt ceiling? Will foreigners stop buying treasuries to fund all this stuff, even if USA is the "cleanest of a lot of dirty shirts" ( if judeged by GDP/debt ratios) ?
In the past, the world knew we were good for the money, as taxes could ( and can be raised, especially since they "sunset" anyway in what ? 2025). If the tea party/Trumpers are in control will they go along, or will we have the mother of all fights with people like Rick Scott apparently willing to "defund" the entire US Government.
What would that do to interest rates on Treasuries, regardless of the inflation rate?
A rational mind would not propose "Sunsetting" the entire US Government or making Medicare and Social security "discretionary".

For me, a question that will become very relevant in 2023, is a prediction of where CD rates will settle at. If we do not experience a major, or prolonged recession, I am guessing they will settle somewhat higher, than where they are at the end of 2022--maybe around 5% to 6% for shorter term rates. After that, the question will arise as to the attractiveness of CDs on a longer term investing option, than various categories of bonds and equities. At least for a significant percentage of retired investors, CDs may take away a large amount of money, that use to go into various categories of bond and equities, because CDs were too low to produce meaningul income. When all the dust starts settling, I suspect we will have a much different set of market conditions than what we have had over the last 15 to 20 years, with low to zero interest rates, and tons of government spending. Of course, if we go into a major recession, it seems likely that the government will have to lower interest rates, and it is hard to guess where that might settle.

Bassman is suggesting that with bond volatility MOVE high, the short-term MBS tranches (structured securities) are good deals now due to their high spreads (over Treasuries).
He also likes mREITs, highly leveraged pools of mortgage securities.
Remember that the bond market anticipates some future Fed moves - may be 3-4 25-bps equivalent hikes. So, the bond market may bottom in 2022/Q4 or 2023/Q1.But this guessing has been terrible so far. Last year, when the Fed started hikes, many thought that all the Fed may do would be 3-4 25-bps equivalent hikes total, but now we are past 15th with at least 4-5 more hikes to come. So, those who have stuck with bond funds, or were early, have had severe and historic bond losses. This will change at some point.

Thanks for the heads up. Has anyone considered that if you were to sell (TLH) all your losses, when you re-buy you have just lowered your basis and will eventually pay more tax? My idea is that you need to selectively TLH.
Perhaps an example: I bought at $50, I TLH at $40, I buy (something else with the equivalent worth) for $40. I take the $3k off every year but in trade, when I sell shares to live my basis is $10 less.
To take it further, I write off $3k/yr for next 3 yrs but then sell at $50, and pay tax on the “gain”.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/81443/000091957422006268/d9806843_497.htm
497 1 d9806843_497.htm
AB VALUE FUNDS
-AB All Market Income Portfolio
THE AB PORTFOLIOS
-AB Tax-Managed All Market Income Portfolio
Supplement dated November 4, 2022 to the Summary Prospectuses and Prospectuses (the “Prospectuses”) dated February 28, 2022 for AB All Market Income Portfolio and dated December 1, 2021 for AB Tax-Managed All Market Income Portfolio (the “Portfolios”).
At a meeting of the Board of Directors of AB Cap Fund, Inc. and The AB Portfolios held on November 1-3, 2022, the Board approved the liquidation and termination of the AB All Market Income Portfolio and AB Tax-Managed All Market Income Portfolio, respectively. Effective as of November 3, 2022, the Portfolios have suspended sales of their shares to investors who purchase shares directly from the Portfolios pending the completion of the liquidations and the payment of one or more liquidating distributions to each Portfolio’s shareholders. In the case of sales to certain retirement plans and sales made through retail omnibus platforms, however, the Portfolios will continue to offer their shares. The Portfolios expect to make their liquidating distributions on or shortly after February 3, 2023.
In connection with the liquidation, the imposition of front-end sales charges and distribution and/or service (Rule 12b-1) fees for the Portfolios has been suspended, effective as of November 3, 2022. In addition, contingent deferred sales charges (“CDSCs”) upon redemption of a Portfolio’s shares will be waived. This CDSC waiver will also apply to redemptions of shares of other AB Mutual Funds that are acquired through exchange of a Portfolio’s shares.
Shareholders may redeem shares of the Portfolios, and may exchange shares of the Portfolios for shares of other AB Mutual Funds, until February 1, 2023. Shareholders should be aware that the Portfolios will begin to convert their assets to cash and/or cash equivalents approximately 3-4 weeks before the liquidating distributions are made to shareholders, although the Portfolios may begin immediately to reduce or eliminate the use of derivatives to facilitate an orderly conversion process. After a Portfolio converts its assets to cash, the Portfolio will no longer pursue its stated investment objective or engage in any business activities except for the purposes of winding up its business and affairs, preserving the value of its assets, paying its liabilities, and distributing its remaining assets to shareholders.
This Supplement should be read in conjunction with the Prospectuses for the Portfolios.
You should retain this Supplement with your Prospectus(es) for future reference.
______________________
The [A/B] Logo is a service mark of AllianceBernstein and AllianceBernstein® is a registered trademark used by permission of the owner, AllianceBernstein L.P.

You can find non callable agency bonds
For example FHLB 3.5% 7/2032 YTM 4.77
Beats equivalent US Treasury YTM 4.2
All depends on if you believe interest rates will be lower between now and then

Progress I want to share for your comments, dipping my toes in income investing.
Bank preferred - JPM-C & -M & BAC-B -> will get around 6% till they are called, bought under-par so some scope of CG when they are called.
Agency bonds - will collect dividends till they are called - not for trade.
FEDERAL FARM CR BKS BOND 6.44000% 11/01/2032
FEDERAL HOME LN MTG CORP MTN 5.75000% 10/27/2027
Looking for corporate bonds????
I have been playing with 1 month CDs - rates from 1.75 to now 3.15.
Once they mature - will build a treasury bill ladder as YB suggested above.
Thanks, thanks & thanks.

You’re correct @hopeful. Here is the correct link:
https://web.archive.org/web/20220609233005/https://tbocapital.com/about-us

@Old_Joe @JD_co
I share your dismay with bond funds, as they have produced a miserable return and lost principal. A year or two ago, no one seemed to believe the old adage that the return of a bond or a bond fund is essentially it's yield. With yields of 1% in 2019 etc, it is obvious many people are going to be hurt.
Buying short term bonds now ensures you get your money back, although you have an opportunity cost and do not equal inflation if rates rise substantially.
A "barbell" approach makes the most sense to me, aiming to buy longer term bonds for the expected drop in rates in 5 years or less.
If hyperinflation arrives, only cash will prosper, making several years living expenses essential to keep in cash.
One of the smartest people I have run across writing about interest rates and bonds is Harvey Bassman, with a monthly report. He invented PFIX, which is up 86% this year as bet on rising rates, and for bond fund protection.
He just doubled down on agency bonds for a variety of reasons all explained in this comprehensive discussion. The math is a bit intimidating but worth working at
https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Convexity-Maven-Deep-Dive-MBS.pdf