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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fed to deliver another big rate hike as job market fails to cool
    Brace yourself that a 75 bps rate hike is coming next month. Labor cost (service cost) is unlikely to come with lower employment rate reported today.
    https://fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/202210070938RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KBN2R21CN-OUSBS_1
  • Nowhere near as bad as ‘07-‘09 - Yet
    Wait....is 'covenant-lite' loans essentially a modified version of NINJA loans? Yikes, they never learn, do they.
  • TBO Capital
    I guess I`m not the only one tempted by their promise of higher than possible returns. I actually saw that they disappeared a little more than a week ago & figured that others would find out also, since they used to make payments on the 5th of each month. For what it`s worth, I located the actual person behind this fraud: Darius Karpavicius who also hides behind his shill company called HMC trading, LLC. He uses a fake mailing address. Also, all the LinkedIn profiles were fabricated and the image photos were stock photos. I felt it in my gut, but went with it anyway.
    Anybody heard of or done business with? It's a private Healthcare fund. I can't seem to find anything on them...except from them..ha! Claims good returns but? Any experiences? Thanks
  • 2% swr
    Some of these comments make me wonder if the poster read the MW article (Hulbert is a smart and prudent cookie, in my long experience of reading him) , much less the original paper, downloadable here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4227132 , and hugely sobering if the case.
    Still a rank newbie here at MutualFundObserver and I will take instruction as to whether it is appropriate to point to related discussions on another forum.
    Hoping that it is, I started a discussion on this paper over at Bogleheads.org: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=387165
    Although some posters defaulted to a thumbs up/ thumbs down stance, there are also some quite searching criticisms of the paper. I would say on balance that good reasons were given for not accepting the headline withdrawal rates in the study. Much depends on how to treat war loss years.
    I'll monitor any responses here in this thread and respond here if I can.
  • 2% swr
    It turns out that deferred accounts are deadly for some widows. The following is an estimate I have made of the federal tax and Medicare B consequences of my husband's death.
    Although my income including RMDs from both accounts goes down 19.12%, my taxable income only goes down 8.79% which makes my taxes go up 33.53% landing me in a higher tax bracket.
    I'm not sure yet what exactly will happen with Medicare B or when it will happen. As far as I can tell I will, at a minimum, triple my Medicare B premium. It may quadruple if I read the latest table correctly.
    Dear Anna: you may find this paper reassuring (or not): https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3896672
    I took a behavioral finance approach in the paper: yes, single tax rates are higher, and yes, unlucky singles can pay more in IRMAA than the couple had.
    But rates are one thing, net dollars paid / saved are another. The paper argues that if you focus on whether you can fund the same lifestyle, as a widowed survivor, that you had as a member of the couple, you are probably going to be okay. Financially, that is; emotionally is another thing.
    I would welcome your comments and those of anyone else on the board.
    PS: the paper should be free to access, as all ssrn.com papers
  • Krugman: Tracking the Coming Economic Storm
    Interesting: https://nytimes.com/2022/10/06/opinion/fed-inflation-interest-rates.html
    Part of the problem is that the Fed hasn’t done what it’s doing now — drastically tightening money to fight inflation — for a long time, indeed since the early 1980s. And some analysts, perhaps including people at the Fed, may have forgotten one important lesson from monetary policy in the bad old days. Namely, it takes a significant amount of time before higher interest rates translate into either an economic slowdown or a drop in the inflation rate.
    Consider how Fed policy affects the real economy. One of the main channels is through housing. Higher interest rates lead to reduced demand for houses, which leads to a fall in construction; as incomes earned in housing construction slide, this leads to reduced demand for other goods, and the effects spill over to the economy at large.
    But all of this takes a while. The Fed’s rate hikes have indeed led to a sharp fall in applications for building permits. However, construction employment hasn’t yet even begun to decline, presumably because many workers are still busy finishing houses started when rates were lower. And the wider economic effects of the coming housing slump are still many months away.
    The other major channel through which the Fed affects the economy is via the value of the dollar. A strong dollar makes U.S. products less competitive on world markets; falling exports and rising imports will eventually be a major economic drag. But it takes time to shift to new suppliers, so this effect won’t really happen until next year.....
    ....For example, a new report shows that unfilled job offerings fell sharply in August. Why is this important? Many economists — especially economists who have been warning about persistent inflation — argue that the tightness of the labor market is better measured by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment than by the unemployment rate itself. But this ratio, while still elevated, has already dropped substantially; as Goldman Sachs puts it, almost half of the gap between jobs and workers has been eliminated over the past few months.
    Another new report shows that demand for apartments has stalled, which will eventually translate into a decline in rent growth — which basically drives official estimates of the cost of shelter, a key component of most measures of underlying inflation.
    Oh, and remember all those supply-chain problems that disrupted the economy and raised inflation some months back? Well, the cost of shipping a container across the Pacific, which was $20,586 in September 2021, is now $2,265.
    I’d argue that these indicators tell us that the Fed has already done enough to ensure a big decline in inflation — but also, all too possibly, a recession.
  • Nowhere near as bad as ‘07-‘09 - Yet
    Interesting WSJ article from a couple days ago (October 5): “Markets Are Stuck in Overreaction Mode” by James Mackintosh. I won’t attempt to quote any of it. But maybe some have access to the WSJ or might find another accessible source.
    I think Mackintosh is correct as far as he goes with this short article. His premise is that relatively insignificant bits and pieces of financial news (earnings reports, FedSpeak, payroll numbers, etc.) are eliciting outsized reactions by investors. This accounts for the massive daily swings in the major indexes of the past few weeks. I’d take it a step further. I glean from various reports (mostly Bloomberg) that a lot of folks are doubling down on their bets and piling into one side or the other. Large amounts have poured into inverse funds (like SPDN) in recent months and some are even using inverse 3X funds! So when markets move / adjust to new reports, the swings can be enormous.
    Where does this all come down? Likely a goodly overshoot on the downside before it’s over. By the same token, there should be some very attractive valuations at some point for those with the patience and long enough time horizons. In the meantime - Buckle Up.
  • Nowhere near as bad as ‘07-‘09 - Yet
    According to Bloomberg the S&P is now down 21.44% YTD. The NASDAQ is off a bit over 29% over that period. According to Wikipedia, from late 2007 until March 2009 the S&P lost about 50% of its value. In truth, the ‘07-‘09 bear market was much longer than the current one. Precious metals miners bucked the down trend today. Not sure if this is the start of a p/m bull market, but quite interesting. By all accounts, Friday’s Payrolls numbers release is a major mover to keep an eye on.
    Wikipedia 2007-09 Bear Market
  • 2% swr
    Just got this little booger via email from TRP. Their findings show that 7 of 10 in retirement are still possessed of a saver's mentality----- willing to adjust their withdrawals if needed in order to be prudent. (I suppose what's unstated here is that most retirees are not wealthy. If they were rich, they'd not worry about this stuff at all, eh?) TRP offers a little test. Where do YOU fall on the continuum?
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/spenders-vs-savers-how-to-determine-your-retirement-spending-personality.html?cid=PI_Single_Topic_NonSubscriber_RET_EM_202210&bid=1099700455&PlacementGUID=em_PI_PI_Single_Topic_EM_NonSubscriber_202210-PI_Single_Topic_NonSubscriber_RET_EM_202210_20221006&b2c-uber=u.C70CEE71-16A5-E6FF-FF67-9E86F48AE56B
  • 2% swr
    Hmmmmmm. I have an additional question: The lion's share of our stuff is all in T-IRA. Reported income (SS and Defined Benefit pension) puts us in a "no tax due" status in terms of our 1040. My annual withdrawals from the T-IRA are small enough so that we still owe no tax due. And in a declining market, I will simply not take my customary annual withdrawals. But RMDs will surely have to be paid. (starting at age 72 now, right? 4 years from now, for me.) Does a conversion to Roth make any sense at all for us? Wife is 19 years younger. Her T-IRA is just 5% of our combined total. And after I'm gone, her plan is to move back to her home country. We have a house there already. Expenses will be ridiculously low---- except for the constant begging from the extended family.
  • 5% CD at Fido (Jonesboro State Bank)
    A milestone of sorts....the first time I've seen a 5% CD in a few decades. Fido offers a new 13 year CD from Jonesboro State Bank with a 5% coupon, but it's callable (not protected). Pays interest MONTHLY.
  • JPMorgan Small Cap Equity Fund re-opening to all investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217286/000119312522258615/d252223d497.htm
    497 1 d252223d497.htm JPMORGAN TRUST I
    J.P. MORGAN U.S. EQUITY FUNDS
    JPMorgan Small Cap Equity Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    (a series of JPMorgan Trust I)
    (All Share Classes)
    Supplement dated October 6, 2022
    to the current Summary Prospectuses, Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information, as supplemented
    Effective October 28, 2022, the Fund will no longer be subject to a limited offering, and all limited offering disclosure relating to the Fund will be deleted.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT WITH THE
    SUMMARY PROSPECTUSES, PROSPECTUSES AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
    INFORMATION FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    SUP-SCE-1022
    The fund has been closed to most new investors since December 30, 2016.
  • Commentary
    https://www.ft.com/content/5b4bd18f-cc40-4542-a025-6190f898a406
    "Wall Street finds a tax silver lining in down market
    Banks are helping wealthy clients to sell investments at a loss to lighten their bills
    "
    In the MFO, on Sunday.
    In The FT today.
    You are welcome :)
  • Commentary
    If inflation persist for next several year ( likely > 2% annually). iBond may provide a respectable return when it ties to the CPI.
    I am using iBond for my kid’s college education - tax free. Much better than money market of his 529 plan.
    @devesh, I hear you on tax loss harvesting. Sold a bit in August and now waiting to get back in with the appropriate equivalent fund/ETFs.
  • Possible Bears market resolution
    Good morning
    Lots folks on wakstreet/pubdits saying after the last few days, we maybe coming to bear market resolution
    -Higher highs past few days
    - Powell /CB maybe easing off a little ( uncle P speaking again today) , lots folks expecting couple more hikes 0.75 and. 25 w QT Ease off after new year.
    -Inflation leaked last month and maybe recessing
    - After yesterday afterhour closures, signals showed Momentum/thrusts and market breadths maybe strong ( more than 85% stock positives 72hrs, strong closures 48 hrs ago, and 100% stocks positives yesterday)
    - transportation etf, small caps etf, Nasdaq showed momentum upswings, they are usually the ones getting out gate first
    Any thoughts on these subjects?
    Lots folks maybe wrong but there could be lights at end of tunnel
    What maybe on your buy lists for potential next bull market _ growth etf funds and growth stocks? Or more bond funds w next bull cycles. These are just my thoughts but I could be wrong. I maybe cheerleader for bear market resolution, but so much suffering since late fall 2021.
    Looking add potential more bonds for mama portfolio ( not much UST Or CD /US_DOLLARS, CASH, these are so high now)
    Then again maybe not... Feds still full-streams ahead today with expected 1.5% raise next new months, until the jobs number cracked and we have a real economic crisis
    Thankyou
  • 2% swr
    MAGI calculation for IRMAA includes only the taxable portion of Social Security. The entire amount of SS is included in other MAGI calculations, e.g. for Medicaid. Below is the major part (but not all) of a table from a Congressional Research Report showing MAGI calculations for IRMAA and other health related programs.
    image
    https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R43861.pdf
    Reducing income to just what one needs is letting the tail wag the dog. If I have $1M in cash, which is better:
    - Buying 3 month T-bills generating $30K (annualized) in taxable income and increasing my Medicare Part B premium by less than $1K, or
    - reducing this unneeded income to zero (and saving with lower income taxes and lower Medicare premiums) by keeping that cash in a non-interest-bearing checking account?
    Note that I've taken risk out of the equation by using short term Treasuries.
    Just as one optimizes taxes by smoothing income before retirement (e.g. by shifting deductions such as contributions and property taxes from one year to the subsequent or previous year), the idea in retirement is to smooth income in retirement, rather than reduce it. That's where incremental Roth conversions help.
    Optimal in many circumstances can be putting money, to the extent allowed, into HSAs. Unlike Roth contributions, HSA contributions are not taxable. With the exception of a few states, earnings while in HSA accounts are not taxed.
    SS income is included for IRMMA calc. So, if a surviving spouse claims SS based on higher benefits earned by deceased spouse, that could increase Part B premiums.
    The effect is the same regardless of whether the higher benefits come from the deceased spouse or from the surviving spouse. Pre-death, the taxes don't depend on which spouse had the higher benefits (assuming MFJ - income is combined). Post death, the surviving spouse receives the higher benefit regardless of whether that comes from the deceased spouse or the surviving spouse.
    Moving from a higher State income tax to a no to low State income tax State in retirement is another good way to keep more of what you worked so hard for during your working life.
    Often not. There's much more to the calculation than state income tax rates. An excellent, very long piece on the Kitces site (I've read much but not all of it) discusses several different factors and how the situation depends not only on income tax rates, but on the mix of income sources, on the level of income, etc.
    https://www.kitces.com/blog/state-income-tax-retirees-top-marginal-rates-social-security-pension-income-age-exemptions/
    One example from that page to illustrate this:
    Example 4: James and Dolly Madison anticipate that they will each receive $18,000 of Social Security income and $19,500 of qualified-plan income during retirement, for a combined total income of $75,000 each year.
    With their retirement income mix, the Madisons would have an estimated $0 state tax bill in 24 states! Notably, this list includes Illinois, New Jersey, and New York, states commonly thought of as high-tax states.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/5/22
    For the week ending on 10/5/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (54.8%; extremely high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (21.3%; extremely low); bullish remained the middle sentiment (23.9%; extremely low); Bull-Bear Spread was -30.9% (extremely low). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed; US elections; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (32+ weeks); European banks; geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up (October dollar-relief rally?), bonds flat/down, oil up sharply (ahead of OPEC production cuts), gold up, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=798