@Baseball_Fan

without getting into a political debate...would you agree that policy could also drive inflation regardless of interest rates...i.e, increasing SNAP food program by 25% last October

As soon as you make that statement, you've entered a political debate. If it "could also drive inflation," I don't care because I think feeding hungry people who don't have enough to eat is more important that whether I pay a little more for something I--and I know you too because you're on this board--can afford. But the optimal word in your statement is "could." It could drive inflation, but there are a thousand other things that "could" drive inflation, such as the fact we have very low unemployment and labor finally has leverage to negotiate wages, such as the fact that corporations see this period as an opportunity to gouge customers and jack up prices while blaming the government for the problem, such as the fact that there are still all sorts of Covid supply chain logjams and a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine that is causing fuel prices to rise. Not to mention the fact that the Fed and Treasury bailed out the stock and bond markets in 2020 with massive stimulus to help rich folks recover from their losses, but also increased the money supply significantly. Not to mention the $953 billion Paycheck Protection Program passed in 2020 by the previous administration to bail businesses out. It's a complex topic and blaming the weakest and poorest members of society for needing food stamps as the primary driver of inflation is absolutely a political statement.
As for the amount of debt out there, it is a risk, but the risk could just as easily be deflationary as inflationary. Namely, defaults occur. Prior to 2008 there was a tremendous amount of debt outstanding in multiple sectors of the economy. A few defaults changed the scenario pretty quickly. As rates rise, companies and businesses and individuals that are overextended start having problems. There is also the prospect that the government could raise taxes to pay down the debt on the federal level. That would be deflationary, too, and fine depending on how taxes are raised and on whom:

@LewisBraham has it right. I’d add that for as long as I’ve been following markets (25+ years) there’s been a “push / pull” between the notion that the economy might teeter into either (1) a deflationary spiral or (2) runaway inflation. A debate old as time. And not an inconsequential one. We came damn near deflation during ‘07-‘08 if we are to believe top Bush Treasury officials at the time.
I’ll agree with @Baseball_Fan if he’s saying the Fed (mainly Powell) have oversimplified the situation. I myself hope they’re not really glued to the notion of 2% constant inflation because ISTM a good way to muck up the economy and possibly throw us into a deflationary spiral. (Sounds like something “central planners” inside the former Soviet Union might have concocted as their prescribed economic officialdom.)
Someone commented elsewhere there is “no deflation”. May I suggest that depends where you look? Stocks in companies are an “asset” valued in dollars as are milk and houses. When you saw off 15-25% of their value in short order, that’s a form of deflation. In fact, the resulting “lost wealth effect” typically causes consumers to pull back on spending which could lead to deflation in other areas.
I’ve said before that the worst conceivable scenario for retirees would be (1) to loose a substantial portion of their invested assets during a deflationary collapse and than (2) be hit with double-digit inflation shortly thereafter.

@LewisBraham, on point comment and without getting into a political debate...would you agree that policy could also drive inflation regardless of interest rates...i.e, increasing SNAP food program by 25% last October, the inflationary, inflation reduction act etc. Not debating whether the policy was just or what your opinion on them is, just asking you if you would agree that policy decisions/proposals could noticeably increase inflation and negate/cancel out/override any rate hike?
From my perspective, to me it is almost laughable that many/some? think that inflation will be reduced quickly. So much debt out there. From a professional standpoint, I am seeing nothing but cost inputs continuing to increase.
Best Regards,
Baseball Fan

Three excellent funds tailored for conservative investors that I track tell the story. All are YTD performance figures (from Fidelity) as of last night.
VWINX -10.24%
TRRIX -12.26%
PRSIX -12.86%
If you really want to freak out … Dodge & Cox’s global stock fund (DODWX) is outpacing all of the above with a -8.5% return YTD. Board favorite PRWCX is also doing better than the three noted above. Probably many more exceptions.
Franklin might have said, “When bonds go dry we know the worth of ballast.”

For a guy born in 1959, I think he is naive about inflation.

There are very few safe haven today. S&P 500 is down 4.3% and BND is down 0.5%.

Jalisco Star Mexican cerveza.
Bushmills.
MacAllan Single Malt.....
I already had a headache, woke up with it from yesterday. (Not hung over)
I guess I WILL look forward to my SS "raise" at the New Year.
TUHYX junk bonds were down less than my stocks.
If PRWCX dips below $33.00, I will buy some more. ($33.05 today.)

I’ve never seen such carnage across both stocks and bonds this far into a year.. No place to hide except cash. PRWCX had an unusually rough day - off nearly 3%. No longer own. Just a watcher. Banks were hammered again today. Many major banks are now down 25-30% for the year, off 5+% today alone. We used to rag on Cathie Wood when her fund was down that much. (Last I looked ARKK was off 60-70% for the year.)
Somehow it feels as if the damage YTD is worse than what the major indexes reflect. Not sure why. Might be that bonds of every stripe have been hit. Might be the damage in the financial sector which ISTM was more of a safe “value” play in the past.

We are approaching September 6 levels. That was just a week+ ago.
1-day decline is the worst since mid-2020.
It was 95% down-volume day.
See major indexes since 1/3/22, https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p13443845664

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1199046/000158064222004690/lhatact497supp.htm
(the fund has no symbol yet)
LHA TACTICAL BETA VARIABLE SERIES FUND
Supplement to the Prospectus
and Statement of Additional Information
dated
May 1, 2022
Supplement dated September 13, 2022
The Board of Trustees has determined that it is in the best interest of shareholders to liquidate the LHA Tactical Beta Variable Series Fund (the “Fund”).
As of the date of this supplement, the Fund is no longer accepting purchase orders for its shares and it will close effective October 7, 2022 (the “Closing Date”). Shareholders who are insurance company separate accounts or qualified plans may redeem Fund shares at any time prior to the Closing Date. Individual investors may redeem Fund shares through their variable annuity or variable life insurance contract. Procedures for redeeming an account, including reinvested distributions, are contained in the section “How to Redeem Shares” of the Fund’s Prospectus. Any shareholders that have not redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to the Closing Date will have their shares automatically redeemed as of that date, with proceeds being sent to the address of record.
Effective immediately, the Fund is no longer intends to pursue its investment objective. All holdings in the Fund’s portfolio are held in cash. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional Fund shares, unless you have requested payment in cash.
* * * * * *
This supplement and the Prospectus provide the information a prospective investor should know about the Fund and should be retained for future reference. The Prospectus and a Statement of Additional Information dated May 1, 2022 have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are incorporated herein by reference. You may obtain the Prospectus or Statement of Additional Information without charge by calling the Fund at 1-833-351-2991 or visiting www.lhafunds.com.

It is irritating. May be comical?
Schwab has issued ANOTHER corrected 1099 in September involving the SAME short-term muni fund FLTDX from Nuveen/TIAA. Again, the changes are for transactional CGs (ST, LT), and not in reported income or CG distributions. As these changes are related to mutual fund cost-basis recordkeeping, the issue can be with Schwab and/or Nuveen/TIAA. The total underreporting of CGs is now $50 (vs $30 in August correction). I may not do anything still.
If you didn't hold FLTDX, this won't apply to you.

Let’s hope that August’s CPI number releases on Tuesday, Sept 13 is lowered than than of July, peaking of inflation maybe the turning point of the Fed to slowdown the rate hike. Many said a 50 bps is more likely. Think I will buy more treasury after the rate hike and hold them to maturity.
I have been trading commodity futures in and out several times this year. Winter is several months away. Energy and food may lead the market again.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793769/000119312522242476/d384549d497.htm
497 1 d384549d497.htm HARBOR FUND - SAI SUPPLEMENT
 
111 South Wacker Drive, 34th Floor
Chicago, IL 60606-4302
harborcapital.com
Supplement to Statement of Additional Information dated March 1, 2022
September 12, 2022
Harbor Funds’ Board of Trustees has determined to liquidate and dissolve Harbor Emerging Markets Equity Fund and Harbor Money Market Fund (each, a “Fund”). The liquidation of each Fund is expected to occur on December 9, 2022 (the “Liquidation Date”). The liquidation proceeds will be distributed to any remaining shareholders of the Funds on the Liquidation Date.
Shareholders may exchange shares of a Fund for another Harbor fund, or redeem shares out of a Fund, in accordance with Harbor’s exchange and redemption policies as set forth in the Funds’ prospectus, until the Liquidation Date.
In order to ready the Funds for liquidation, each Fund’s portfolio of investments will be transitioned prior to the planned Liquidation Date to one that consists of all or substantially all cash, cash equivalents and debt securities with remaining maturities of less than one year. As a result, shareholders should no longer expect that each Fund will seek to achieve its investment objective as stated in the Funds’ prospectus.
Because the Fund will be liquidating, Harbor Emerging Markets Equity Fund is now closed to new investors. Harbor Money Market Fund was closed to new investors after the close of business on Friday, May 15, 2020 and will remain closed. The Funds will no longer accept additional investments from existing shareholders beginning on November 25, 2022. As of the Liquidation Date, the checkwriting privilege for shareholders in Harbor Money Market Fund will terminate. Effective immediately, check books will no longer be issued. Any checks written prior to the date of this supplement will be honored. Any checks written after the date of this supplement will be payable until the Liquidation Date.

Another piece of the puzzle, at least in 2021, last time I held any shares in it, was that a chunk of the distribution was ROC. At one point in the last quarter, the ROC for the year was 50% of the total distribution. The actual income was pitiful.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806633/000119312522239572/d269934d497.htm
The following funds are no longer "soft-closed":
-Wasatch Core Growth
-Wasatch Small Cap Growth
-Wasatch Ultra Growth
-Wasatch Small Cap Value
-Wasatch Micro Cap
-Wasatch International Opportunities

FPA New Income fund has done much better than majority of multi-asset bond funds this year, -2.6%. @AndyJ has a good point that money market funds now yield about 2%. After interest rate hike in September (expecting 50 bps), money market funds would yield over 2.5%.
If liquidity is not an issue, short term CDs and treasury (3-9 months) are offering yields over 2-3%. When the Fed starts to cut rates, core bonds will become attractive again.

Edgar reports PRWCX's quarterly GE holdings as:
12/31/21 25,143,114 shares, 4.41% of holdings
03/31/22 21,712,776 shares, 3.80%
06/30/22 21,005,868 shares, 2.93%
GE stock is nearly unchanged since 07/31 (ignoring the 8¢ dividend on 08/25). It would have to be less than 2.19% of PRWCX assets to fall off the 08/31 top ten list. That's ~27% less than the 3.01% at the end of July, so it looks like a healthy fraction, if not all, was sold during August.

There is quite a bit of talk about QT and that it going full steam from mid-September at -$60 billion/mo for Treasuries and -$35 billion/mo for MBS. This can go on for a while.
Also mentioned is that the Treasury market is large and liquid and can handle -$60 billion/mo as roll off. But MBS market is not large or liquid enough and -$35 billion/mo cannot be achieved through roll off alone. So, that means that the Fed would have to sell some MBS. Impact of that would be felt in mortgage rates.
What is less talked about is the indirect rate increase effect of QT and there are some guesstimates on it. But even the Fed isn't clear on this. There isn't much history on QE or QT (remember, QE was considered a new innovative tool). All one can say is that the mix of rate hikes and QT is a potent combo and its effects are underappreciated.
As has happened in the past, monetary tightening tends to produce some financial accident, crisis or disaster (here or globally). We don't know if the collapse of speculative stocks and cryptos were those - so, keep your fingers crossed and be on the lookout for more disasters.

Hi Sirs (Crash Hank Yogibearbull) been dca weekly sp500 and xlf great long terms good vehicles... Can't go wrong w SPY and XLF)
Also 50 bucks monthly into bit coins btc-cash(BCHUSD) prob think sale once BTC get to 45 50k or so see how memontum turns in 12 24 MONTHS ....who knows may run up to 78k again w new bull cycles (may run 3 4 more yrs)... Also added lithium etf and SGML Chpt last wk. Musk think these will tripple in 4 5 yrs
Also dca monthly into TNA SPXL TQQQ
Maybe easier and more lazy way to do
Lots pundits saying we maybe near bottom 8th of fear/bear cycle run (last 7-9 months) hard to say. Price may not be cheaper in 3 months
Sometime no time to find good vehicles like you did weekly scalpings other wise/good finds will do more research.
Rumors on Wall Street say Hedge funds started to buy small caps etf last wk or so thinking new bull cycles emerging/baby bull born??!!! ... We will find out in 7-12 wks... If Feds pivoting ease Qt Oct meeting
Good luck.. Thank you for suggestions