@Observant1, thank you for the update. I read elsewhere that DODGX has pretty much closed out their position in VMware.

FD1000
For a guy who claims to keep up, you really don't keep up, do you?
https://www.foxnews.com/media/paul-krugman-trump-economy

This is a 2020 article where "Krugman acknowledged that he had "reacted badly" and retracted his prediction three days after the election."
That was in 2016, four years prior. Not exactly keeping up either.
As to the "retraction", it was more of a declaration that he was right, just a bit early. Not exactly a full-throated retraction.

There’s a temptation to predict immediate economic or foreign-policy collapse; I gave in to that temptation Tuesday night, but quickly realized that I was making the same mistake as the opponents of Brexit (which I got right). So I am retracting that call, right now. It’s at least possible that bigger budget deficits will, if anything, strengthen the economy briefly. More detail in Monday’s column, I suspect.
On other fronts, too, don’t expect immediate vindication. America has a vast stock of reputational capital, built up over generations; even Trump will take some time to squander it.
The true awfulness of Trump will become apparent over time.

Krugman, The Long Haul, NYTimes Nov 11, 2016
https://archive.nytimes.com/krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/the-long-haul/
Did he actually predict immediate economic or foreign policy collapse? Here are the last two paragraphs of his column that he cited:

Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work. Effective fiscal support for the Fed? Not a chance. In fact, you can bet that the Fed will lose its independence, and be bullied by cranks.
So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.

Krugman, What Happened On Election Day
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout
Not exactly the prospect of an immediate collapse which is what he said he was retracting. More like the difference between climate and weather. The world is hot and getting hotter. That's climate. The temperatures for the next week will be 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. That's weather. That's immediate.
Was his prediction wrong? Yes. Did he acknowledge it? Yes, eventually (thus the 2020 piece). Did he predict an immediate collapse? No. Had he predicted an immediate collapse, he would have been a hack - economies don't turn on a dime (or a buck, after inflation). He knows that.
OJ is right; Krugman provides citations. So you can read what he actually wrote to compare with what he says he wrote.

I recall fondly this excellent thread (from May 17) containing many diverse opinions. What stood out to me was the voracity with which the proponents of cash (rather than bonds) voiced their opinions. Not to imply they were wrong. Just that it’s been really rewarding for bond / bond fund investors the past couple weeks watching the turn around. Some memorable comments from this spring.

Well, you seem to be (read, "are") picking on me with those quotes, so here's my reply.
Great. Maybe LT bond holders will continue to see massive upswings to continue to recoup their heavy losses over the past years. (Maybe not?) To wit, the vast majority of taxable bonds do NOT have 5-yr TRs equaling 5% yet.
And we'll see how long the bond party lasts, eh? Talk to me in 5 years after our CP CD ladder made us 5+% annually for that period, risk and worry free, allowing me to spend my investment time on stocks, where real money is made. To wit, with all of our stock funds UP 20%-65% this year, except one only UP ~9%, I really don't give a rat's arse what bond funds are doing. I don't want to and I don't have to! My FI money is instead parked in the 5+% CP rate lot where I don't have to waste otherwise quality investment time on it for years to come.

I recall fondly this excellent thread (from May 17) containing many diverse opinions. What stood out to me was the voracity with which the proponents of cash (rather than bonds) voiced their opinions. Not to imply they were wrong. Just that it’s been really rewarding for bond / bond fund investors the past couple weeks watching the turn around. Some memorable comments from this spring.
- ”I sold all of my bond funds in March of 2022. I have not bought any new bond funds since then, preferring Brokerage noncallable CDs and MMs. I have no plans on buying any new bond funds in the near future.”
- “+100”
- ”I’m with you.”
- ”So while bond fund investors over the next 5 years will be putting in time and effort trying to get their 4%-5% TRs, I'll be putting on a slew of golf courses, knowing that we have a 5+-yr CD ladder in place of those bond funds that is paying in excess of 5%.”
- “I look at MMs paying around 5%, CDs paying around 5.3%, and there is little to no risk there. As a retired person, I am fine with collecting 5+% for now.”
- ”As a retired person I am right with you! I am sleeping very well with little to no risk and I have NO FOMO”
- “Just bought two 12-months CDs from two large national banks with a quite satisfactory yield of 5.30%. I am not concerned about eking out a few extra basis points here or there in the future.”

some hack reportage and analysis about healthcare
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/opinion/trump-obamacare.html

Simply explosive action in bonds this November with the Bloomberg U S Aggregate Bond Index (AGG) seeing its best performance since May 1985. Digging deeper the rally was led by long duration with several funds in the Morningstar Long Government category seeing returns in the 14% to 15% range. My favorite category - Municipals - didn’t disappoint with returns in the long investment grade muni category exceeding 10% for some funds and outpacing the high yield munis category which saw returns in the 8% and 9% range. Other categories such as emerging market debt and corporate bonds saw smaller yet still out of the ordinary price gains. Funds that were concentrated in mortgage backed securities also shined. Surprisingly junk corporates lagged a bit with the Morningstar average coming in at *only* 3,99%. As expected with a rally based on expectations for lower long and short term rates the bank loan category pulled up the rear.
Prior to the explosive action in and around the November 1 Fed meeting, many bond investors and traders were camped out in some obscure but tightly trending bond funds such as EMPIX and CBYYX which were on pace for double digit returns. ( Someone at MFO needs to write an article about these co insurance bond funds) But their returns in November paled in comparison to most everything else in Bondville.
Below is where I begin to repeat myself - a trait I abhor so will put myself on a three month moderation (hiatus) after this thread runs its course.
As a trader or for that matter an investor, you have to believe that every rally is THE rally and play it as such. That way you never miss out when it actually is THE rally. Obviously so far the rally around the fireworks in and around November 1 has been THE rally. Seasonality is kicking in for municipal and junk corporates so we shall see if the rally has staying power. So much depends on the action in the 10 year Treasury. January of this year saw an impressive rally (albeit nowhere close to the current one) only to fade to nothing when the 10 year begin to lose ground again and the swoon in regional bank stocks.
My first bond trade ever was in January 1991 in junk bonds and as luck would have it ( and I am a big believer in the luck factor) it was a lock out trade. A lock out trade is when the market relentlessly rises day after day locking out those looking for some type of minor correction to enter. Shortly after my January entry in 1991 in junk bonds there was a period of 60 consecutive trading days with no down days. Somewhat akin to what is occurring now in municipal bond funds now with only one down day in November. Not a whole unlike what occurred in muni funds in January 2014 and which is detailed during that period in the archives here under my moniker. Lock out trades are rare and bullish going forward.
Now this humongous rally in bonds may be much ado about nothing and burn up in flames. That is where prudent money management comes into play and not allowing hard earned gains to evaporate into losses, But those waiting for certainty, the coast to clear, or for better times ahead will always be destined to be late to the party. Feeling comfortable is not a positive trait if you are a trader or investor, Risk is part of the game and many of the best trades and investments arise when we are the most uncomfortable.
I am sure I will get blowback on some of the above but to blunt that let me say I completely understand the current mindset of being safely tucked away in money markets and CDs earning over 5%.

@FD1000
For a guy who claims to keep up, you really don't keep up, do you?
https://www.foxnews.com/media/paul-krugman-trump-economy

Anytime we talk about CD rates we should always be sure to reference if they are CP or Not CP. BIG difference in the rates and Available Quantities, as well as the strategies/consequences of holding either.
FWIW, I rarely if ever post about Not CP CDs as I have ZERO interest in ever owning one in concert with my overall strategy on FI. All comments that follow are therefore related to brokered, CP CDs.
Brokered, CP rates for 3-yr to 5-yr CP CDs peaked at about 5.20% to 5.10% (based on my tracking, but they coulda inched a wee bit higher) respectively at two different times in 2023, several months ago and a coupla weeks ago.
They are now GONE and we are unlikely to see them again in this interest rate cycle. That said, the topic after all is interest rates, so the direction and magnitude of moves is always a roll of the dice.
Currently, the best brokered, CP rates (and Available Quantities) on Fido for these maturities are
3-yr: 4.65% (6,000)
4-yr: 4.60% (2,200)
5-yr: (None)
I suggested to investors here many months ago to try to NOT be short-sighted (and star struck) with the relatively higher rates on 3-months to 18-month CDs IF they were planning on creating a longer term CD ladder and/or wanted to take advantage of CD opportunities not seen for many prior years.
I suggested those 5+% CP longer term rates would disappear quickly and once they were gone, they would likely be gone for many years...again. Luckily, we all had two swipes at them as noted above. Some acted. Some did not. I acted and built our CD ladder out 5 years.
Those who didn't act are left with the types of questions posted by some of the most recent posters: What to do now?
Yeah, the drop in the 10-yr and CD rates SHOULD improve bond fund TRs BUT that's the rub: Do you want FDIC'd, CP, guaranteed rates of a CD ladder in the 5+% range, or do you want to roll the dice on bond funds, and IMO, basically the hope that you'll match the CD ladder TR? Plenty of worthy arguments on both sides but I will always choose the former based on my minimum FI hurdle and risk/reward considerations. Others had at least two opportunities this year to do the same but it appears they no longer will. So TMMV, and likely will.

The price of food and gas is not the big problem because housings and total expense on vehicles is a much bigger portion of someone expenses. Buying a house in many cases it at least 50% more than 3-4 years ago because prices are 30% up + mortgage rates are more than doubled. That isn't a political view.
Krugman is a political hack. This is what he said
In 2016 https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugman-trump-global-recession-2016-231055

Good & timely reminder.
Secure 2.0 made many changes
Another2 change relates to RMD from accounts that also have partial annuitizations. All withdrawals from these accounts (annuity payments plus other withdrawals) can be aggregated for RMD purposes.

I found this link which discusses this in more detail.

This change applies to all IRAs annuitized after 12/31/22. The IRS will provide additional guidance on the specifics of this calculation, but a retiree can use a good faith interpretation until then.

https://annuities.pacificlife.com/home/insights/blog/2023/annuitizing-a-traditional-ira.html#:~:text=After%20the%20SECURE%20Act%202.0,satisfy%20RMDs%20for%20all%20IRAs.

kerrist
and here's a view (correct imo) that political econ fretting is au fond a luxury these days
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/opinion/trump-fascism-2024-election.html

The data and employment trends support the argument. However, people will judge economy based on what they spend most visibly (prices of food and gas). So, there is the disconnect.
However, for a middle-class family the percentage of these items is relatively small (food about 10% and gas about 6%). Plus, while prices have these items have increased some due to supply chain issues after pandemic and some simply because economy is good, people have jobs and are actually travelling and in effect creating more demand. Without demand the prices cannot easily go up. Fed is basically trying to curb the demand by increasing interest rates.
Also, if you have travelled around the world, you would see US food prices (especially meat) is relatively on the lower end of the scale. In Europe you pay a lot more for your groceries and gas if we compare US with most other developed countries. Inflation while considered high vs 40 years, it is still a very low number again compared to many other countries (well maybe Japan which often goes through deflationary cycles) I will take a bit of inflation with plenty of jobs available vs, no or negative inflation with jobs getting lost. I have lived in a hyperinflation country and the inflation worries here is just more noise than substantial.
Perceptions are also colored by political propaganda of both parties. So, where do I stand? I take the positive view with a nuance. It is neighter as bad as it is perceived, nor it is as good as it could be.

@Devo - Retirees who are drawing Social Security get annual increases in benefits equivalent to to inflation rate (CPI). That’s much better than my state pension which has no inflation adjustments

what state has constant pensions? from retirement day 1?

11/30/23, Thursday evening quote of $25.01 for PRCFX is at Yahoo Finance & CNBC. Not yet at other sites.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRCFX?p=PRCFX
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/PRCFX
I did try a Schwab test order around 2:00 PM Central, but the ticker was NOT recognized (just like yesterday). It may take a few days for 3rd party NTF/TF setups.
I see that MFO now recognizes it.

Good & timely reminder.
Secure 2.0 made many changes that have been covered in earlier threads.
Sticking to RMDs, another1 change from 2024 is that RMDs will no longer be required from Roth 401k/403b. Until 2023, retirees have to move Roth 401k/403b to Roth IRA to avoid RMDs.
Another2 change relates to RMD from accounts that also have partial annuitizations. All withdrawals from these accounts (annuity payments plus other withdrawals) can be aggregated for RMD purposes.

This act was discussed previous here, so this is a reminder. The RMD's apply to T-IRA's, 401k's, 403b's and perhaps 457's. Exceptions may exist if one is still employed. Pass along as needed.
Broad Google search links here.

msf
In case you consider my arithmetic suspect, the same BLS table gives figures in constant (inflation adjusted) dollars:
4th Quarter, 2019 - $362
3rd Quarter, 2023 - $365
===============
FD: good catch, I would start from Q1/2020 to Q3/2023 beginning at 367, ending at 365
Just for reference: what happened in the 4 years prior, from Q1/2016 to Q4/2019: Start at 346, end at 362...just "a bit" better.
BTW, I have discussed the above with many younger people and they have told me that they are way behind in what they can purchase now vs early 2020. Housing+vehicles are the leading factors and both are a high % of their spending.

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 12/1/23
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
No changes
Restricted RC 7.00%, RA 6.75%
Flexible RCP 6.25%, SRA 6.00%, Newer IRAs 5.20%
TSP G Fund hasn't updated yet (previous monthly rate was 5%).
Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
#401k #403b #StableValue #TIAA #TSP
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1269/thread

dreamy dreams
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/11/you-dont-want-2020-prices-back.html