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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • News link only: Saudi Aramco busted through the roof with profit
    Filled my tank yesterday.
    Regular gas was $4.35/gallon at Costco (often one of the least expensive places for gas).
  • Investors Return to Stock Funds, Starting to Reverse Recent Exit / WSJ
    From last Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal (August 24):
    “Many investors have rediscovered their appetite for stock funds as the S&P 500 has climbed 13% since June 16. The summer’s market rally has begun to lure investors back into stock funds. Investors funneled a net $11.7 billion into equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds over the two-week period ended last Wednesday, according to Refinitiv Lipper data. That is a shift from earlier in the summer, when many investors assessed their losses from a brutal start to the year and headed for the exits.”
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    @Roy, you have what it takes to hold such a fund… more power to you.
    @Sven, PRWCX may fall into “group think”… I owned Pimco Income and then the winds changed… winds change so we adjust your sails.
    @hank, thanks for your suggestion and comments… In 2023, with retirement looming, I have structured a portion of my portfolio to provide short term income needs. I am comfortable with a 10% loss over the short term (5 years or less) so positions in cash, ST Bonds and funds such as VWINX will hopefully meet my yearly income needs.
    If I am lucky enough to not need all of my portfolio to continually fund my 5 year income needs, I will fund longer term investment in funds like PRWCX. I also feel funds in the healthcare and Tech sector (nod to @Ted) continue to be long term trends that I would also consider.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    The following individuals are listed by Giroux at the end of his letter and unless I am mistaken, they are all dedicated staff to PRWCX (Mike Signore, Chen Tian, Nikhil Shah, Vivek Rajeswaran, Brian Solomon, and Jared Duda) in addition to all the TRP analysts, associate analysts and quantitative analysts.
    So, while Giroux has final say on the portfolio, he is receiving a lot of assistance.
    As many of you know from previous postings, we have most of our investments in this one fund. First moved most of our retirement funds into this fund late in 2006 when Giroux was still new, just dumb luck as the move was based on prior performance of the fund and the desire to simplify and reduce volatility. Once we retire or decide 60% + in equities is more than we are comfortable with, this could very easily change. I'm very glad Giroux is 12 years younger than I as this means he may be PM another 10-15 years, fingers crossed!
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    +1. And yet, a single manager keeps things simpler, when a fund holds $50B AUM. YIKES, eh?
  • News link only: Saudi Aramco busted through the roof with profit
    oh, boy. pretty obscene. i'm still seeing $5.56 at some gas stations. Oahu.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    - I attempted to respond directly to @bee and his query of whether PRWCX would constitute a wise sole investment for a retiree already in the distribution phase. If others think that would be a good way to go, please let @bee know.
    - I’m aware of PRWCX’s excellent risk adjusted performance record. I owned the fund from 1995 until July 2022 when I exited as part of a broader consolidation of holdings.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Young Giroux (only 31), a capital goods analyst (who had won an industry award for analysts) but without any prior fund management experience, and without much overlap with the previous managers of PRWCX, was given the responsibility for a major fund like PRWCX in 2006. Price obviously saw the potential, but it took time for others to realize that. Amazingly, Giroux has delivered SP500 like returns with only 60-70% equity exposure (but he takes more credit risks with his bonds); screenshot shows period 1/1/2006-now. So, it isn’t a conventional moderate-allocation fund, but a capital appreciation fund that seeks higher returns than its nominal equity exposure.
    image
  • Technical question? Or "Other Investing" question? I dunno
    Think maybe bottom consolidate w this stock
    If day trade/few days trades - buy Monday set sale +5% +10%, auto sale
    After autosale --> repeat if you think stocks still upswings
    If long term sits for two yrs five yrs and may reach >40 50
    Imho stocks cycles every 3 months and may potential be +20 -30% every 3- 6 months amd may get 40s 50s in 16 19 months
    Have stop tight loss and sale if stocks drop >5% if day trade
    If long term you may not care if goes any lower
    Analysts say could be $55 in 12 months
    Volumes very low so not many interests becareful
    Good find
    If you look at $WTI Lots folks bought it large upswings momentum, head and shouler upswings, but seem very strong and rsi not reached >70 potential for another 5 7% upswings...macd also crosses over 7 9 days ago
    Just my humble options
    Eu banks/ eu economy in very bad shape now and may have more downswing.. could be another 10 15% down hard to say
    Don't loose$$
    Consider looking at few speakers in stockharts youtube representers videos you may learn lots about swing momentum trades
    Remember when you think you are good/correct and has good trades good winners,
    Market comes back and knock you off very bad...be very humble and expect win <35 40% of trades
  • Technical question? Or "Other Investing" question? I dunno
    I'm looking at this chart very simplistically (i.e. just the technicals) and I have have done zero point diddly fundamental analysis of the stock or company. The price seems to sit right where it was in June 2020. It nearly doubled from there by August of 2021 but has since retraced all of that gain and appears as though it wants to continue to advance to the rear. I mean it's barely trying to break the trend. The technical chart at StockCharts.com confirms this with a low RSI, trading far below it's 200dMA. It's also trading below its 50dMA and money is flowing out of the stock (CMF = Chaikin Money Flow). So 'technically' it's not a good time to be buying and I wouldn't consider investing until these indicators show signs of moving up (i.e. reversing).
    Having said that something 'fundamentally' could lead analysts to say it's worth your money and interest but you couldn't prove it by what the chart is technically indicating.
    Which is better?
  • Technical question? Or "Other Investing" question? I dunno
    Hihi
    44 milions dollars questions there
    Nobody know the answers
    Hard to trade daily or momentum trades
    Everyone wrong >54% of time when Bet against market
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    @bee, Never owned VWINX. Been tracking it all year and am very impressed. Steady Eddy if there ever was. As of yesterday it was down less than 7% YTD. One compeditor, PRSIX i like to track is off over 10% at this point. I guess there’s a roughly .50% difference in fees, which accounts for part, but not all, of that difference,
    Just watching PRWCX almost since inception I would consider it too risky to use as the sole ingredient in a retirement / staged withdrawal plan. But I’ve been taking aim at it for couple decades now and it continues to defy my worst forebodings. Look at virtually any other fund run by T. Rowe and you’ll find periods of overperformance and underperformance. But not this one - yet. Just rambling here. Hats off to Giroux for the job he’s done. One wonders who might replace him some day.
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    I am little concerned w USA jobs market/ data Feds plans, recessions, uncontrolled inflation....
    I am more concerned w other parts of world - EU USSR and especially CHINA economy -housing bubble [??Lehman brothers 2.0) -c19 frequent recurrent Locks Downs -recession surely pull all of us down/sink whole global economy
    If that the case sp500 head toward 2900 Triple dip [april 2020, early 2022, and late 2022-2023)
    Sp500 severe resistance near below 3900 if breaks ...waterfall
  • Bumped into this website: charts, ratings, numbers
    Lots friends I know use trading views very good for research but medium w costs
    Schwab has good information about companies stocks good research chart ok
    Yahoo finance /finviz good w lots free
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    Webull one of best around may have lots information w chart -w Mcad /many indicators 50ma 200ma etc... lots technical analysis if you like it. Colors beautiful w webull (imho probably better one)
    Please try webull...think 25k for free trades and chart minimal fees
    Stockcharts also good but 50 bucks per month
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    @bee, I modified your PV run also for initial 4% ($4K/yr) level, initial 4% ($4K/yr) inflation-adjusted:
    Strategy, Ending balance, Notes
    4%, $218.731K, Withdrawal amounts variable; details by @bee
    4K level, $251.433K, More like an annuity
    4K infl-adj, $231.433K, Infl-adj annuity is rare commercially
    MFO doesn't preserve spacing.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Using Mutual Funds for Retirement Income
    I have posed this question to myself... could a fund... or funds serve as a funding source for inflation adjusted retirement income?
    Withdrawal Scenario:
    If a retiree started taking a 4% safe withdrawal rate from a $100,000 investment in PRWCX, how would this fund and the income withdrawn over time fare (3, 5,10, and 15 year) later? Portfolio Visualizer can't predict future returns, but it does allow a user to look back over stressful and successful market conditions.
    To stress test this scenario using PV, I add a market hurdle where by the retiree starts withdrawing from retirement savings at the end 2006. They buy $100,000 worth of PRWCX (or a portfolio of these types of funds) and began taking a 4% yearly withdrawal each year, from 2007 going forward ( 15 year time frame). Over the first two years of retirement, the "annuity portfolio" experienced a 41% loss in value as well as absorbed the required 4% income withdrawals (4% annuity payment). That's stressful.
    Questions:
    Over those first two years of retirement (2007 - 2009), the $100,000 portfolio (stand alone portfolio of just PRWCX) would have dropped to $63,000. Could a retiree hang in there through these first two years? The retiree's withdrawal rate of 4% may have started at $4,000 (4% of $100K), but as the portfolio dropped in value, their next year's withdrawal dwindle to a little less than $3,000 (4% of $63,00) in 2008. Having a cash/ ST bond component to this portfolio might provide a buffer...especially at the start of retirement.
    We have had an investment environment over the last 15 years that has included both monetary stimulus (QE and lowering interest rates) and market shocks (GFC, Covid, Supply disruptions and the rise interest rates). ISTM that a collection of well managed allocation funds could help individual investors balance the risks of the day with the rewards of the day.
    PRWCX seems successful at this. VWINX and VWELX are two others that I run retirement withdrawal scenarios with. Do you have a favorite? Maybe a collection of these would be a better approach. It would help reduce manager risk and might diversify manager strategies.
    Here's a link to Portfolio Visualizer where you could run some of your own scenarios:
    PRWCX as an Annuity
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    With extremely low unemployment and still many unfilled jobs looking for applicants, it seems that inflation may remain at a fairly high level for longer than many expect. Hence, the Fed may have to be quite aggressive in its tightening process over the next couple of years to achieve its stated goals. The markets could experience some tough times down the road.
    As David Rosenberg suggests: "Play the long game by being patient, being nimble, since intermittent rallies will come and go, and focusing mostly on capital preservation." This, it seems to me, is particularly good advice for retirees.
    Along those lines, two funds that I have been following performed quite well in yesterday's market crash. PGAGX gained 0.47%, and has a YTD gain of 8.44%. FARIX lost only 0.32%, but has a YTD gain of 5.22%.
    Good luck,
    Fred
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    Short Term traders - bad sentiments, bearish, doom gloom/ shorts sales make sense
    Long term 2-5 yrs -maybe good time to add positions/buy more and you maybe laughing your ways to the bank 5 yrs from today if we do have market recovery/ bullish scenario
    Still waiting but i did buy more last 8 wks...
    Hang tight very volatile next few weeks -months, maybe another 7 10% leg down testing June's lows ( many gaps unfulfilled)
  • Vanguard Funds Vs Vanguard Index Funds
    Taking a wild guess : yes the return on a single dollar will be more on a low fee passive fund than on a active fund. But if the active fund nets 10% return in a year that its passive near-equivalent nets 5%, you're gonna make more money with the investment in the active fund. Am I missing something?