Using Mutual Funds for Retirement IncomeI have posed this question to myself... could a fund... or funds serve as a funding source for inflation adjusted retirement income?
Withdrawal Scenario:If a retiree started taking a 4% safe withdrawal rate from a $100,000 investment in PRWCX, how would this fund and the income withdrawn over time fare (3,
5,10, and 1
5 year) later? Portfolio Visualizer can't predict future returns, but it does allow a user to look back over stressful and successful market conditions.
To stress test this scenario using PV, I add a market hurdle where by the retiree starts withdrawing from retirement savings at the end 2006. They buy $100,000 worth of PRWCX (or a portfolio of these types of funds) and began taking a 4% yearly withdrawal each year, from 2007 going forward ( 1
5 year time frame). Over the first two years of retirement, the "annuity portfolio" experienced a 41% loss in value as well as absorbed the required 4% income withdrawals (4% annuity payment). That's stressful.
Questions:Over those first two years of retirement (2007 - 2009), the $100,000 portfolio (stand alone portfolio of just PRWCX) would have dropped to $63,000. Could a retiree hang in there through these first two years? The retiree's withdrawal rate of 4% may have started at $4,000 (4% of $100K), but as the portfolio dropped in value, their next year's withdrawal dwindle to a little less than $3,000 (4% of $63,00) in 2008. Having a cash/ ST bond component to this portfolio might provide a buffer...especially at the start of retirement.
We have had an investment environment over the last 1
5 years that has included both monetary stimulus (QE and lowering interest rates) and market shocks (GFC, Covid, Supply disruptions and the rise interest rates). ISTM that a collection of well managed allocation funds could help individual investors balance the risks of the day with the rewards of the day.
PRWCX seems successful at this. VWINX and VWELX are two others that I run retirement withdrawal scenarios with. Do you have a favorite? Maybe a collection of these would be a better approach. It would help reduce manager risk and might diversify manager strategies.
Here's a link to Portfolio Visualizer where you could run some of your own scenarios:
PRWCX as an Annuity