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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How to Beat the Stock Market Without Even Lying
    op cit
    Notably, we find that 1,050 out of 2,870 funds made a change to their prospectus benchmarks
    at least once over a 13-year period. Because we collect data on funds’ benchmarks beginning
    in 2005, the first year in which we can detect changes is 2006. The average fund in our sample
    reports 1.44 benchmarks per year and makes 0.84 benchmark changes during our sample
    period.

    I'm glad they did the research. But there are a lot of other red flags out there like cost, load, turnover, manager investment, whether the company is publicly owned, etc.
    Funds that make at least one benchmark
    change make an average of 2.27 changes during this period, suggesting that there is a serial
    component to this behavior. Funds making at least one benchmark change also report
    significantly more benchmarks each year (1.74) than the group of funds that never makes a
    benchmark change (1.23).
    Not surprising. I had some choices like that in some retirement plans my employers got us into.
  • Rondure Global Advisors - Chairwoman's letter
    Folks can we please try to turn down the volume here. I come here as do most others to engage in thoughtful investment discussions, not to deal with political vitriol. If you don’t like her political or social views then don’t invest in the fund. Simple as that. But Lewis is right her performance for her fund category is actually good. In the top 16% over the past 5 years. No need to go after the manager like that.
  • How to Beat the Stock Market Without Even Lying
    Here is a PDF of the study Zweig referenced in his article.
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    I’m not sure “thanks” are deserved here … @JohnN.
    Generally, I’d stick with a diversified long-term portfolio. What I’d argue against is trying too hard to “read the tea leaves” and making big changes (ie buying / selling) depending on what you think is going to happen (next week, next month, 6 months out etc.) Easy to get caught flat-footed. Some may have sold near the recent lows and than been caught off guard when the market suddenly turned around and jumped 15-20% in just a month or two.
    “Buying down” is dangerous. I still try occasionally. Best way is go slow. Put a set dollar amount into something and watch it. If it falls 5-10%, maybe buy a little more. Not for everyone, Buffett references “blood in the streets”. (Actually, it was Rothschild - my bad) Not all agree with that. Hard to know how much blood will flow and when it will stop flowing.
    I corrected earlier incorrect reference to Buffett.
  • Rondure Global Advisors - Chairwoman's letter
    Rondure New World, i.e, RNWOX has beaten its peers handily in the past three years with less volatility than them as well so I’m not sure what the grotesque attack on the manager’s supposed “virtue signaling” is for. If anyone bought this emerging market stock fund expecting its behavior to be comparable somehow to “a 5-year CD,” that’s on you. You shouldn’t be invested in emerging markets at all if you think that. The manager shouldn’t be blamed for the fact those markets are volatile. There’s a reason they have the word “emerging” instead of “developed” in their name.
  • Allocation Funds Are Back
    Allocation funds are back. Note that they rebound strongly after bad quarter(s). They were declared dead prematurely. Twitter LINK.
    image
  • Rondure Global Advisors - Chairwoman's letter
    Hard pass, no thanks, not for me.
    Used to invest a fraction of my portfolio, never had good results.
    Looking at some of the holdings....Sichuan Swellfun Co LTD, MatsukiyoCocokara & Co, Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk PT...Huh? Quick, name what they do or where they are located.
    Whiskey Tango Foxtrot. GTFO. I'd rather invest in MSFT, CB, TEL, JNJ, EMR, PEP, JPM etc than those companies.
    Lady who runs the show seems to be on a Koombaya, virtue signaling jag....all the goods are there...I have found that whenever companies post all that stuff, their stock goes down the toilet bigly. Post stuff about carbon footprint?...huh, stop flying all over the world on the investor dime in the name of "research and boots on the ground" etc while you fulfil your wander lust...typical hypocritical virtue signalling bullshit.
    Focus on growing your business, providing a return for your investors over a simple FDIC insured 5 year CD.
    Don't lecture, don't tell us how inclusive and diverse you are...we can see the truth based on the photos of the folks who work for you.
    Baseball Fan
  • The bottom are likely in
    https://mobile.twitter.com/DeanChristians/status/1559532018299539458
    The bottom are likely in
    Good things maybe better 12 24 months from today
    Chance of another key leg down sp500 < 3650s in 4 8 wks minimal ( approaching 0 - 5%) base on previous historical models, but anything maybe possible
    Stay invested
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    In an interview with the WSJ, the Fed's James Bullard said that at next month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting he would lean towards voting for a 75 basis point rate hike. "He isn't ready to say that inflation has peaked and it remains important for the Fed to get its target rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% by year-end." To get price pressures back to the Fed's 2% target will take about 18 months. "The idea that inflation has peaked is, is a hope, but it's not statistically really in the data at this point," Mr. Bullard said.
    In a separate appearance, the Fed's Neel Kashkari reiterated that cutting interest rates in the next six to nine months isn't realistic. He expects the Fed to "raise rates to some point and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2%."
    Sorry, but it looks like the market is getting ahead of itself. If the Fed stands by its plans, the markets could experience some tough times down the road.
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    ARKK is now down more than 60% for 1 year. Fell 5.92% today to close at $44.69 and than dropped about 30-cents more in after-market trading tonight, ending the week at $44.38
    Just listened to Wall Street Week’s opening 20 minutes. Two knowledgeable dudes to lead it off, Ed Hyman of Evercore and Bob Prince from Bridgewater, As far as the quagmire into which they see things devolving … “We’ve Only Just Begun” might be the song of the day.
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    Hi folks
    What think about sp500 level around 12.25.2022
    ?? 4550 to 4650??
    So many bad things may go against this market -
    Inflation
    Covid resurgence in Usa
    Europe issues and energy supplies in winter/commodity issues with Ukrain
    Lack of supplies
    Feds bipolar response to market
    Sentiments
    China housing and economic concerns/china c19 policies/shutdown
    Recession world/Usa economy
    Sp500 Sideways consolidation stagnation, recession/downward spirals or moonshots +7 10%?
    Thankyou for any suggestion
    Jnn
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    Yes, big stinky doggy poopies today. 19th Aug, '22. Just one day, yes. But this guy's portfolio is down -0.99%. PRISX financials got slammed the worst. TRAMX has fallen hard, the past 2 days. Africa/Middle East.
    DIVIDEND today from ET. No donuts for anyone, however. The booger took it right back. At some point, I hope the management will stop MANAGING debt and start REDUCING debt. But I've been happy with it. BHB and PSTL down also. Those are still my only (3) single-stocks. ......I'll be watching for WSW. Always worth my time. Apart from Summers. Even when he's RIGHT, it's too boring to matter. Eh? Time for some whiskey in the shade. Another hot one, today. Jalapenos growing. Caladium thriving. Planted Serrano Peppers. And nasturtiums. Ah, the week-end. ...
    image image image image
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    The OP was December 2021 by @catch22. Using his EFT Global link we can see a lot has happened that is still red and only a few buys recommendations. Interestingly India stand out as global standout (beyond US equities).
    image
    Some funds that seems to be steaming along:
    GLFOX
    GASFX
    VUIAX (VPU)...not a bad short and long term total return (results below are for VUIAX)
    image
  • BulletShares versus ibonds bond ladder
    Have you used these to any success? There is a yield to maturity calculator on their website and I wonder how accurate it is to what you return would be if you purchased on that date.
    I have some fixed expenses coming up in 5-6 years and I was thinking of using these defined maturity ETFs to pay for those.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/17/22
    For the week ending on 8/17/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (36.7%; above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (29.5%; below average); bullish remained the middle sentiment (33.3%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -3.8% (below average). The strong stock rally from mid-June lows continued. Investor concerns: Recession/slowdown; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed/FOMC; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (25+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down, oil down, gold up, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=747
  • Sweater Cashmere Fund (VC Fund)
    Bloomberg shows the fund's Total assets at $8.5M as of 8-16-2022. How can you have Cashmere without the Cash?
    We really cannot be familiar with ALL the Asset Mgrs out there, and I'm not sure about these guys. I suppose a VC fund is probably just looking to get lucky with a major home run or two anyway.
    Interesting new product for small time (us non-accredited) retail investors. Will watch to see if it attracts any $. Fees are not cheap, redemption window is semi-annual.
  • Small-caps at all?
    @BenWP yes NEAIX is a very interesting one. Sold off a fair amount earlier this year but Great Owl and top decile performer over last 3 and 5 years. It's coming back. I'm also intrigued by BRSVX in small cap value. Held up very well this year.
  • CWS Market Review – August 16, 2022
    During the day on Tuesday, the S&P 500 poked its head above 4,325. That’s a place the index has not been since early May. The S&P 500 has now gained back more than half of what it lost during this year’s unpleasantness.
    The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell 6 points to 49. That was its eighth-straight monthly decline.
    The reason why this is so important is that 50 is the tipping point. Any number above 50 is considered positive, while any number below it is considered negative. Now we’re negative. Except for a brief period around Covid, this index hasn’t been negative in eight years.

    The broader economy is probably not in a recession at the moment, but its most important sector likely is.
    CWS
    crossingwallstreet market-review-august-16-2022
    Housing IS the Business Cycle
    https://nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w13428/w13428.pdf