"First, Wall Street seems to have a blind spot when it comes to tightening via the Fed’s balance sheet.
Such tightening has been attempted only once before, and economists say rate increases are much easier to model than quantitative tightening. In that way, many participants assume QT won’t have much impact.
Second, the lack of discussion around QT is leading to public misunderstanding.
Some investors doubt that the Fed is following through so far on its balance-sheet tightening plan,
particularly on the MBS side."
Barron's Link

Please explain the Appeal of MERFX ? Gross ER 1.71%
1 yr -8.57 / 3 year 0.22 / 5 year 2.17 / 10 year 2.22

@MAV
I'm assuming your question is in regards to the individual stock holding. My portfolio is comprised of a taxable account, and a rollover IRA...both approximately the same size. Between them I hold 17 individual stocks. Within each account, a holding may generally account for anywhere between 5-7% of that account's total...and about 3% or so of the overall portfolio total. With only 2 exceptions, they all generate dividends and contribute to cashflow for spending purposes. With the exception of the REITs, their dividends are tax advantaged so it really doesn't make a difference in where you hold them. From an overall portfolio perspective, individual holdings account for 57.5% of the total.

Added NLSAX to my alternative sleeve last week. Replaced GATEX. I think it will be a good fit. Held up quite well 1st quarter 2020. I’m very diversified. Largest single holding (DODBX) is at 8.7%. NLSAX is 7.95%.

Sequence of Return Risk is discussed which may play a significant part in determing a SWR:
the-hidden-peril-in-sequence-of-returns-risk

global value investor Tom Russo says today’s investment environment is the most challenging of his 40-year career. He explains why his core companies are up to the challenge.

Ticker: AMKBY
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/maersk-acquire-denmark-based-logistics-firm-martin-bencher-group-2022-08-05/
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3868083-maersk-to-acquire-project-logistics-firm-martin-bencher?utm_source=stck.pro&utm_medium=referral

@Crash, @Mark, @rforno, @PRESSmUP
Presently:
What percentage of your portfolio do you allocate to these companies? Also, is it beneficial to hold them in retirement accounts, IRAs, if they have special tax consequences if held in a normal account?
Thank you

@Mav123
Thanks for the question.
Presently: BHB= 3.6% of portfolio total.
ET = 3.09% of total.
RGR = 1.26% of total.
Tonight, they are 7.95% of portfolio. They all did badly today.
They are all in taxable account. In retirement, there's no Earned Income that makes contributing to the T-IRA a sensible thing to do. Our household income leaves us paying zero federal tax, anyhow.
I will be gradually growing my stake in single stocks. I keep an extensive watch-list. I'll never have enough money to own them all. But I'll pick up some, here and there, when the opportunity allows. Diversification is still important to me, and with options available which cover the waterfront, I'm right now looking at Marine shippers GRIN and PCFBY. .......Perennially, the big Canadian banks are on my list, but currently, I'm already 34% in Financials. (CM. BMO. RY. TD. BNS.) .....Also: CLF. And QAT. How much do I devote to these single stocks? Not enough. I don't think I'll ever reach a point where I must LIMIT my proportion of single-stocks, compared to funds. If I were younger and working, I suppose I'd try to strike a balance. Funds are inherently less risky. (See more in the very next post.)

Prob buy more Meta qqqm xlf tsla lcid spy vang2050 monday
Bottom likely in
Becareful of double dip/stagnation and another 10% -15% leg down next 3 6 wks
Very difficult to tell so far but odds little lowered compared last wk
Good news usdollar downtrends and oil commodities little downtrends also last wk
https://mobile.twitter.com/WillieDelwiche/status/1553056509747236864?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-says-market-bottom-near-120000886.html

The market appears to have a toping feel now.

Put on a 750s starter position in MMP the other day. It compliments my large EPD position so I'm covering both nat gas and gasoline pipeline distribution.

"...no science or art needed...."
But, but, but..... LIFE is an Art. Enough said. ;)

Hi Crash, I agree with you, BUT, the beauty of investing is the fact it can be extremely easy. Suppose someone decides to invest $1000 monthly in a target fund(made of indexes) for 40 years in Roth 401K, makes 8% annually, and never touch this money until retirement. She retires with about 3.2 million, not bad. At age 65, she takes SS and another 2-3% from her Roth for living expenses...DONE.
Of course, she can do better and invest more.
I believe the above can beat most investors, and even pros. KISS and effective, no science or art needed. I also think many people who participate in investing forums make things too complicated, including my own (system). Financial advisers make it complicated to confuse their clients.

Just an FYI - on the question of commissions, most brokerages appear to charge a commission (e.g., 0.01%) in buying and selling Agency bonds. Today, Agency short term bonds were yielding nearly 50 pbs higher than Treasuries of the same maturities. If there is a wider interest in exploring Agency debt, we should open a separate thread to keep this thread on topic.

Good post. The longer you check, and I'm talking about at least 20-30 years, a cheap index such as the SP500 beats most stock funds.
The SP500 is based on the best indicator, the price. The price never lies, regardless of any opinion.
The SP500 is global too, it gets about 40% of its revenues from abroad.

The S&P 500 index is a good representation of large-cap U.S. stocks.
Most active funds underperform this index over longer time periods.
Although many S&P 500 companies derive substantial revenue from foreign countries,
it may be prudent to also include foreign-domiciled companies in your portfolio.
I respect Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle but disagree with their views to avoid foreign investments.

I have heard the above many times. Why stop at foreign-domiciled companies? Why not slice it 8 ways, just to be sure. This is why many investors lag by complicating their portfolios. The fact is that the most dominated companies are in the SP500 + the USA is very stable + capitalism is not perfect, but still the best we have + I prefer American management globally. China high tech looked great until Xi Jinping took care of that. Europe have been sinking for years. Did you know that there is no European high-tech company by revenue at the top
(link).

People often say that allocation/balanced funds are declining, dead, kaput. But they are wrong. Broadly speaking, target-date funds, robo-advisors and age-based 529s are nothing but allocation/balanced funds in some form. So, this universe is expanding. Robo-advisors alone are $1 trillion now.

www.barrons.com/articles/the-best-robo-advisors-barrons-annual-ranking-51659712291?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1
Overall Ranking: #1-SoFi, #2-Wealthfront/UBS, #3-Fidelity, #4-SigFig, #5-Merrill Edge, #6-Personal Capital/Empower, #7-Vanguard, #8-Betterment, #9-Schwab, #10-US Bank, #11-Morgan Stanley (includes E*Trade), #12-Wells Fargo, #13-Ally, #14-Acorns, #15-JP Morgan Chase
Digital Advice by Firm AUMs: #1-Edelman Financial Engines, #2-Vanguard, #3-Morningstar, #4-Fidelity, #5-Schwab, #6-Betterment, #7-Wealthfront/UBS, #8-Personal Capital/Empower, #9-TD Ameritrade/Schwab, #10-Guided Choice, #11-Bloom. Total industry AUM $987.6 billion.
There are several variations - digital-only, digital+ with some personalization/customization (menu-based) and limited support, tax-loss harvesting.
Related developments include direct-indexing, ESG, mobile apps.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/153/robo-advisors-barrons-rankings?page=1&scrollTo=732

Good post. The longer you check, and I'm talking about at least 20-30 years, a cheap index such as the SP500 beats most stock funds.
The SP500 is based on the best indicator, the price. The price never lies, regardless of any opinion.
The SP500 is global too, it gets about 40% of its revenues from abroad.

The S&P 500 index is a good representation of large-cap U.S. stocks.
Most active funds underperform this index over longer time periods.
Although many S&P 500 companies derive substantial revenue from foreign countries,
it may be prudent to also include foreign-domiciled companies in your portfolio.
I respect Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle but disagree with their views to avoid foreign investments.

:)
(After 57y here I believe I have yet to develop a proper Masshole accent ('chuhch'), although my LBirdlike buckeye one ('sheeit') is waned. I do say 'roof' to rhyme with 'poof' and on two recent trips to the Midwest was thrilled to hear radio ads about roofers and roofing sounding like woofers and woofing.)
CDL does not look attractive quite in the way CDC does, yeah.

Consider the JAVA ETF, run by the same manager, Clare Hart, as the VGIIX mutual fund. VGIIX is a five-star fund, even though it has a low active share in part because its expense ratio is a modest 0.69% but also because Hart takes small calculated risks. She is not a major contrarian, making big bets, but contrarian enough to get the job done. The JAVA ETF has an even lower 0.44% expense ratio and holds 153 stocks. According to Morningstar, VGIIX has an active share of only 63.5%, not very contrarian at all, but enough to win without any extreme swings that are significantly different from its benchmark the Russell 1000 Value. Of course, the Russell 1000 Value is contrarian by design and an ETF tracking that can be had for even less.

Scanned @bee’s linked article. Typical Marks. To me the take away is that market valuations follow a herd mentality. At any given time part of the price of a security rests on investor sentiment. Now, none of us has the research capabilities and analytic tools at Mark’s disposal. So it’s difficult trying to replicate his process or even come close.
Still, I think the herd mentality concept has legs - more so today than ever. Go back 8-12 months and read the threads posted on this forum. Certainly some anticipated the approaching storm and were taking steps to lighten up on risk. But the overwhelming number of posts remained quite bullish. People were eagerly buying. I nearly got into a spitting match with one fellow who insisted “buying the dip” was always a reliable investment approach, even with the DJI near 37,000 and the NASDAQ 20% higher than now,
So if (a big if) one can identify severely undervalued assets and if one can remain calm and allow time to do its work, than one can be more successful than investing in broadly diversified funds. It’s difficult to see how an extra 1 or 2% in fees would cancel out the benefits of a 2X or 3X appreciation in value over a few years time. BTW - Not long ago passive investing - mostly the S&P 500 was near conventional wisdom here and elsewhere. Doubters were faced with fiercely intense posts trying to prove its validity. Now many (including some D&C funds) are actually shorting that index. One problem some of my sources identify is the huge amount of passive investing coming from retirement plan contributions at the individual level. Much of that has been going into funds linked to the S&P index for decades.