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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • TIAA outage
    This is a problem accessing an actual TIAA investment product. As you said, that's much more serious. This is not merely trying to get info via TIAA on some product held elsewhere, such as Fidelity.
    I have no problem accessing info about a friend's 403(b) account. But the retail side of TIAA, or at least part of it, has been messed up for two weeks. No current balances (just an aggregate amount as of Nov 1), no positions.
    Fortunately the website seems to post current NAVs. So I can use my latest (Sept 30th) downloaded statement to get the number of shares of each position and use the current NAVs to calculate my current values by position.
    I was planning on reallocating holdings at TIAA. Assuming TIAA can handle that by phone, this outage is an just an inconvenience, not an insurmountable obstacle.
    (That computer lingo, as you call it, is a standard "dump" from a Java thread that has failed/died. It can be very informative for debugging. Though here, it looks like the problem is on the third party vendor side - that vendor should be working furiously to get its system up and talking again to the outside world.)
  • Cyber ‘Catastrophe Bonds’ Move Step Closer to Hitting Public Debt Markets
    One risk with bonds is that they are "contracts" and those can be subject to interpretations by courts and/or governments.
    Look at the recent fiasco in Switzerland with the AT1 bonds. These are risky bonds that can be counted as bank Tier 1 capital in Europe. The risk is that they are wiped out in bankruptcy. So, when the Swiss Government forced UBS to rescue Credit Suisse, UBS "demanded" wipeout of Credit Suisse AT1 bonds. But there was no formal bankruptcy, only a rescue. The matter is still in the courts.
    Other European countries issued statements that this AT1 mess cannot happen there.
    Nevertheless, the European AT1 market was shaken on this action by the Swiss.
    Likewise, in the speculative CDS market, it isn't clear cut when the triggering event is.
  • TIAA outage
    I could and can log in fine. However, as the message says upon logging in, "current account values are unavailable". No change.
    This problem is product-specific (note the wording "one of our vendors"). I have been able to get investment info for someone else's account who has non-overlapping products.
    When I try to get details about my particular investment, I get a java server error. Eclipse is a Java IDE that I used to use. I'm not familiar with SAML (an authentication package), though this error at the top of the stack is consistent with the message that TIAA is having problems communicating with its third party vendor.
    Partner Connection ID: MCCAMISH
    Adapter: Unknown
    (SP) ::: MCCAMISH is not active.
    Please contact your system administrator for assistance regarding this error.
    Full Stack Trace:
    org.sourceid.websso.profiles.ProcessRuntimeException: (SP) ::: MCCAMISH is not active.
    at org.sourceid.saml20.profiles.idp.AuthnSourceSupportBase.doLookupAuthNs(AuthnSourceSupportBase.java:955)
    ... at roughly a dozen org.sourceid.saml20 (or websso) methods ...
    at org.sourceid.websso.servlet.EnforcerServletBase.checkProcess(EnforcerServletBase.java:79)
    at org.sourceid.websso.servlet.EnforcerServletBase.doGet(EnforcerServletBase.java:135)
    at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:687)
    at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:790)
    ... at roughly 90 org.eclipse methods ...
    at org.eclipse.jetty.util.thread.QueuedThreadPool$Runner.run(QueuedThreadPool.java:1034)
    at java.base/java.lang.Thread.run(Unknown Source)
  • Cyber ‘Catastrophe Bonds’ Move Step Closer to Hitting Public Debt Markets

    Can't wait to figure out which tail is wagging which dog here and what the systemic risks might look like.....
    CDOs for cyber, anyone?
    Cyber ‘Catastrophe Bonds’ Move Step Closer to Hitting Public Debt Markets

    By Gautam Naik
    November 12, 2023 at 8:30 AM ESTCyber catastrophe bonds may be about to move out of the shadows of private deal-making and into the public debt markets.
    So-called cat bonds, which farm out hard-to-insure risks to capital market investors in exchange for double-digit returns, have typically been built around natural disasters such as hurricanes. But as the potential fallout of business-halting cyberattacks becomes too big to insure, issuers are seizing the moment. Beazley Plc, which owns specialist insurers across Europe and the US, is exploring a potential $100 million cyber cat bond, according to Artemis, a research firm specializing in insurance-linked securities. And Axis Capital is preparing to issue a $75 million cyber catastrophe bond, according to a preliminary offer document seen by Bloomberg. Spokespeople for Axis Capital and Beazley declined to comment on the deals. The wider market for cat bonds is likely to reach a record $40 billion this year. A lot of that growth has been fueled by the impact of climate change, as extreme weather shocks threaten to make insurers’ business models untenable. For that reason, some of the most active players in the cat bond market are reinsurers such as Swiss Re AG and Munich Re AG. Investors have been drawn to returns that trounce those of US Treasuries. This year, the Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Performance Index is up 18%, while the Bloomberg US Treasury Index has dropped about 1%. Issuers of cyber cat bonds want to protect themselves from financial losses that can follow a major cyberattack, including lost revenue, legal fees and regulatory fines. Read More: ICBC Hit by Cyberattack, Tells Clients to Reroute Trades
    Insurance-linked securities “offer corporate boards and business owners a degree of comfort over their balance sheet resilience in the event of a larger cyber event,” according to a recent report co-authored by Kathleen Faries, chief executive officer of Artex Capital Solutions.
    But with limited historical data to analyze, as well as increasingly sophisticated forms of cyber crime, investors face unusually high levels of risk....
    < - snip - >
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-12/cyber-catastrophe-bonds-move-step-closer-to-hitting-public-debt-markets?srnd=premium
  • Small Caps
    Yes, indeed: fund managers might surprise you! My portfolio X-Ray shows:
    9% in small value and
    5% in small blend.
    Yup. Just checked a 40/60 TRP fund of funds I own. Its benchmark allocation for the 3 small cap stock funds it holds (including PRNHX) is about 2.7% / As of June ‘23 it was at about 2.5%%. That doesn’t move the needle much in my case, as that holding is only 10% of portfolio. But I do own a bit over 3% inside a conglomerate / holding company which is focused in the small cap area.
    Out of curiosity, checked Price’s growth oriented fund of funds, PRSGX. Didn’t this one used to be called “Spectrum Growth”? Now it carries a different name. Anyhow, their most recent report gives a range of 0-25% allocated to small cap funds. But the fund was holding only 10% actual as of June ‘23.
    Perhaps relevant to the discussion is the possibility / desirability of investors like KHaw24 considering some good allocation funds (They come in a variety of flavors) fitting one’s risk profile and allowing the manager(s) to make those decisions? I think small caps are fertile ground for patient investors; but they can give you whiplash over shorter periods.
  • Small Caps
    What happens in 10 or 15 years?
    I like smalls, and always hold some. I wish I had owned FMIMX all that time. But it always looked so boring. M* calls it a mid-cap, but it's currently 67% small. I own some now, and I expect to buy more in the future.
    I own RWJ, and I am looking at CALF. Both are on the lower end of the debt/equity ratio, as is FMIMX for that matter.
    Keep in mind that any etf based on the S&P 400 will tick the small cap box for M*. In that space I own XMHQ. It also has a low D/E ratio, as do most things on my shopping list. Seems to me that the current environment encourages an eye on debt exposure.
    I am keeping an eye on GRPM to see how Invesco's GARP strategy works in that space. Until recently it was an equal-weight 400 fund. I have been pleased with SPGP, which has a longer track record, but in the 500.
    Buy now, or wait? I might do some early shopping in the taxable, but mostly I think I'll wait till the budget mess is settled.
  • The week that was, global etf's, various categories + heat map. Week ending May 17, 2024.
    The graphic is set for the 5 days ending November 1, Friday; for the best to worst % returns in select etf categories. One may then also select the one month column to align the one month return best to worst; or for the other listed time frame columns.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Small Caps
    Triavarte's Adam Parker was interviewed on CNBC Closing Bell Friday. The video is available via CNBC Pro (fee) which I do not subscribe to.
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/11/10/pro-watch-cnbcas-full-interview-with-trivariates-adam-parker-and-requisites-bryn-talkington.html
    Included was a discussion of small caps. He stated (paraphrasing) we are at least 3-6 months away in this bizness/market cycle from SCs being a proper/correct play.
    That said, scoping of all (NTF and TF) SC MFs available via Fido shows the fund families (named a few below) I'd be interested in if I was interested in SCs :
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/results/table/morningstar-rankings/mstarCategoryRank3Year/asc/1?assetClass=DSTK&amp;category=SB,SG,SV&amp;order=assetClass,category
    Aegis
    DWS
    Hennessy
    Kinetics
    Oberweis
    Bridgeway
  • Cyber-attack. Australian ports.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-11/dp-world-australian-ports-cyber-security-incident/103094358
    Find the criminal pigs. Do unspeakable things to them. Then leave them to suffer for as long as they live. In a cage. Without any provender.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation and Income Fund in registration
    Thanks for making me aware of TCIFX! Giroux is equity and Shuggi is an equity quant and allocation guy...
    [snip]
    Jeff Ptak from M* asked David Giroux: "With the benefit of hindsight, what do you think you might have urged your younger self to do and conversely, warn the younger you to refrain from doing, given all that you’ve learned along the way?"
    David Giroux's partial response:
    "Second, I think I would tell myself to work more closely with the quantitative resources at T. Rowe earlier in my career. I really didn’t do anything on that front really until late ‘09. I joke with people internally. There was a BFS era, before Farris Shuggi, and AFS, after Farris Shuggi, period at CAF. I’ve worked very, very closely with Farris Shuggi and the rest of the quant team at T. Rowe on so many proprietary projects over the last 14 years that have really meaningfully, positively contributed to CAF’s performance. Honestly, it changed the way I managed CAF for the better over time."
    https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/2fc42364-3773-4020-94f4-02d6b1f4e551
  • Small Caps
    I own 2 small/mid cap funds and am happy with both…. Virtus kar small cap core is about a 6% position and NEAGX is a 1% position. The first is small/MidCap blend and the second is small cap growth. The Virtus fund Is only available in some 401(k) accounts.
  • Small Caps
    Yes, indeed: fund managers might surprise you! My portfolio X-Ray shows:
    9% in small value and
    5% in small blend.
    How much of that 14% is the result of my own single-stock selections? It almost doesn't matter, eh? If what I really want is to AVOID small caps altogether? Just, "never say never." I'm pleased with what I hold. Otherwise, why hold those things?
  • High Yearend Distributions
    Don't know about its estimated distributions, but SSgA's S&P 500 fund (SVSPX) carries a 12b-1 fee that rounds to 6 basis points (total ER of 16 basis points):
    The Fund has adopted a distribution plan under Rule 12b-1 pursuant to which payments of up to 0.25% of average daily net assets may be made; however, the Fund’s Board of Trustees has determined that payments will not exceed 0.062% of average daily net assets
    Prospectus: https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/mf/resources/doc-viewer#svspx&prospectus
  • TIAA outage
    We are currently experiencing an operational outage with one of our vendors, and the systems are unavailable, with no estimated time for resolution. This outage could last several days. Current account values are unavailable. General product inquiries may be directed to the service center at 877-694-0305.
    At the close of business on November 1, 2023, the total value ...
    Perhaps TIAA should have called this an outrage :-(
  • Small Caps
    10-15 year time frame? But thinking of making what amounts to a tactical decision? If you have a long range plan in place you shouldn’t have to make this type of decision. Rather, you’d be considering rebalancing and possibly adding to beaten-up small caps - or perhaps slightly overweighting those that you already own.
    To quibble a bit, I consider 10-15 years intermediate term , but not long term (20-30 years). To wit - it’s largely a matter of semantics. There’s been some discussion of small caps on the board. I’ll try to link something. Truth is - it all depends on the economy and the direction of interest rates. If rates continue to decline small caps should benefit as they need easy access to the borrowing trough and tend to borrow at higher rates.
    I’d have about 3-5% of my money tilted toward small caps myself. The thing is - When they jump … it’s often by a lot. So, if you feel like gambling, throw a little that way and let it ride. But check what you already own and make sure you’re not already exposed to the sector through some existing funds.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/61579/it-s-almost-time-to-buy-small-caps#latest
  • Small Caps
    @Investor Your last sentence, " In investing, perfection is the enemy of good enough returns. " What would you consider, good enough return, 5% , 10% & in what time space ? I'm sure age of investor would have something to be considered.
    Thanks for your time, Derf
  • Small Caps
    Is it too early for a long term (10-15 yrs) investor to reallocate to small caps? The SCG landscape has been beaten down and some of the most reputable MF/ETFs have fallen to the middle of the pack (performance-wise). I've owned BCSIX for over 10 years and looking back, glad I took profits when I rebalanced (several times). Also, own PRNHX and the recent 3 yrs has been tough due to the Fund's aggressive nature.
    Any MF/ETF's that you are considering or own?
  • FPA Global Equity ETF is in registration
    FPACX currently has 91 equity holdings, per M*.
    The predecessor ETF has a concentrated portfolio, "typically a 20-50 position common equity portfolio", according to its fact sheet. Its daily holdings are here:
    https://fpag.fpa.com/#holdings
    I haven't taken a close look at the filing(s), but a cursory glance (ERs, managers, etc.) suggests that this is merely a restructuring of the ETF. It is currently "a non-diversified series of Northern Lights Fund Trust III" and will become "a series of FPA Funds Trust" with all the legal implications that change carries. Day-to-day, current ETF and "new" version don't look different.
    If you're interested, why not check out the ETF now? It's been around since December 16, 2021.
    https://fpag.fpa.com//
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Nov 10 Episode
    James Grant, Founder and Editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, joins us to discuss the history of bond market cycles and why the dramatic rise in interest rates that began in March of last year might have ushered in a prolonged bear market in bonds.
    Grant argues that bond yields have trended in generation-length periods, with each cycle lasting at least 20 years. He believes that the bull market in bonds that began in the early 1980s has now come to an end, and that we are now embarking on a long-term period of rising interest rates.
    Audio Version:
    https://on.soundcloud.com/3cNTh