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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fido NetBenefits Down?
    It has been down at least since yesterday (Sunday, 4/9/23). The message says:
    "
    [229]The service is experiencing technical difficulties. Please try again later.
    REQ6433f62abf7414939bb46570a9ceaa33
    "
    Edit/Add: Fido NetBenefits is for 401k/403b. Fido Brokerage is working fine.
  • I bonds and tax refund
    I've done it twice, no problem. But, once you are presented with a TurboTax screen, it can be frustrating to navigate your way back to it. Use the bookmark function, it you are not ready to commit.
    The paper bond takes a while to arrive.
    Buying I-bonds, you are allowed $10,000 per person, plus $5,000 per return. So, we have purchased $25,000 in I-bonds for 2023.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (04/07/23)
    A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including fears about our children's generation, a repricing of the housing market, the manufacturing recession, and more.
    Blog Post
    Video
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    ARTKX is categorized as international large cap value. I compared its metrics to a ARTGX plus a bunch of ILCV funds. What stood out was the ARTVX had a far lower Ulcer Index than its peers, so I ran a second screen for ILCV funds with an APR over 10 and an Ulcer Index under 10. I sorted those by Sharpe ratio and checked the correlation of the three most promising to ARTKX.
    Franklin Templeton International Low Vol, Hi Div ETF (LVHI) - better than ARTKX in every way over the past three years except total return LVHI book 15%, ARTKX 21%. The R2 is 85.
    Causeway International Value (CIVIX) - same returns, higher volatility. The R2 is 96.
    Fidelity International Value (FIVLX) - lower returns (17 vs 21%), comparable Ulcer Index (7.2 vs 6.5). High correlation (98) to Artisan, which implies they're playing the same game but Artisan is playing it better.
    Artisan Global Value (ARTGX) - high correlation (97) but slightly trails ARTKX in pretty much all metrics.
    All are top tier since the screen started with low Ulcer / high returns.
    For what interest that holds,
    David
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    Perhaps we should look into @LB article on Barron’s with respect to active foreign funds/ETFs. Thanks to @yogibearbull, he has summarized these funds.
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2023/Q1 and YTD to 3/31/23)
    Pg L3: After lagging for several years, the INTERNATIONAL/GLOBAL funds are relatively cheap (value cheaper than growth) and may outperform. Use risk control strategies – lower SDs, favorable U/D CR, etc. For the US investors in foreign funds, a strong DOLLAR has been a headwind. OEFs: AIVBX, BISAX, FISMX, FMIJX, GQGPX, RNWOX, SGENX, SIGIX, TBGVX; ETFs: ACWV, EFA, EFAV, EFG, EFV, EEM, HDG, HEFA, VIGI. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L8: The US-China DECOUPLING will take a while. China has also been tough on its big techs. But small-caps have escaped the watchful eyes of the Chinese government. OEFs: FHKCX, MCDFX, MCHFX, MCSMX, RNWOX, SIGIX, SGOVX; ETFs: ASHR, CHIQ, CNYA, CQQQ, CXSE, EWH, FXI, GXC, KBA, KWEB, MCHI, PGJ. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L9: GROWTH funds are rebounding, but be selective. Some former big techs have fallen off the growth wagon and some energy companies have joined. Large-cap growth (IVW, MGK, RPG, SCHG) has been outperforming small/mid-cap growth (IJT, RZG). The OEFs mentioned are HCAIX, TRBCX, VWIGX.
    EXTRA: FAITH-BASED funds cover a wide variety and several are rebounding. Vatican published its investment guidelines in November 2022 that also included responsible ESG. Private direct-indexing is a growing area. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Fund news from elsewhere in Barron’s (Forthcoming Part 2).
    Pg 13, FUNDS. MUNI MONEY-MARKET funds (tax-exempt) with near juicy 4% yields are attractive. This is a tiny area with $130 billion AUM only vs $500 billion AUM pre-GFC-2008, and $5 trillion AUM for taxable money-market funds. These invest in floating-rate munis (VRDNs) that reset rates weekly according to the SIFMA rates. Typically, the SIFMA rates are 40-80% of (taxable) fed fund rates, but they are elevated now due to redemptions to pay taxes (so, these high rates may not last beyond April). These funds partner with BANKS to provide daily and weekly liquidity guarantees. By definition, their DURATION is considered to be the rate reset period regardless of the maturities of the underlying munis (so, don’t get alarmed when looking at their holdings and maturities). Mentioned are FTEXX / FTCXX, SWTXX, VMSXX, VTMXX. (Their overall structure and rate resetting process seem complicated and may have unknown risks)
    Pg 24, INCOME INVESTING. Selected REITs are attractive after their recent battering. Their earnings have been cut but the SP5500 earnings remain OK (so, the REITs client companies are doing fine). A FED pause will benefit the REITs, but RECESSION won’t, so it’s time only to nibble in REITs. Attractive REITs are industrial (PLD, ADC, GLPI), residential, self-storage, data-centers. Avoid REITs for offices and malls (big/regional or strip/local). Several publicly traded REITs are more attractive than private real estate (that suffer from lagging mark-to-market; negative news on monthly/quarterly redemption limits for several nontraded-REITs).
    Pg L33: In 2023/Q1 (SP500 +7.50%): Among general equity funds, best were LC-growth +13.52%, multi-cap-growth +11.35%, and worst were small-cap-value +0.77%, mid-cap-value +0.84%, equity-income +0.95%; ALL general equity categories were positive AGAIN. Among other equity funds, the best were sc & tech +18.80%, telecom +11.66%, global large-cap-growth +11.10%, and worst were financials -7.77%. Among fixed-income funds, domestic long-term FI +2.55%, world income +2.96%; ALL FI categories were positive too AGAIN (FI isn’t very refined in Lipper mutual fund categories listed in Barron’s). So, good 2022/Q4 (value shined) & 2023/Q1 (LC growth shined).
    LINK
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60940/barron-s-funds-quarterly-2023-q1-april-10-2023#latest
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    Several Matthews Asia funds were mentioned.
    I personally would stay away from all Matthews Asia funds in the near-term (possibly long-term).
    There has been an exodus of talent at the firm over the past few years.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/152046
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/156101
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/159415
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    Agreeing with @Observant1's comments: Thomas Coutts has been the lead manager on the pure Baillie Gifford international fund, BGETX, since inception. Until 2021, that fund tracked VWIGX extremely closely (see Portfolio Visualizer graph).
    The relative underperformance of Coutt's' fund BGETX since the start of 2021 may be attributed to that fund being "purer" growth than VWIGX. The Vanguard fund gets some "tamer growth" (per Yogi) from the 30% managed by Schroeders. The Schroeders component explains virtually all the difference. This can be inferred from this PortfolioVisualizer graph. It compares (since Jan 2021) BGETX, VWIGX, and SCIEX (pure Schroeders, managed by the same Schroeder managers as on VWIGX).
    In case more evidence is needed, we can compare recent (post Anderson) performance of VWIGX with a pure Anderson fund. Yes, he's still managing an international fund, just not one based in the US. Desjardins Overseas Equity Growth, out of Canada. Anderson's the sole manager, and like VWIGX, this fund has 14% of its equity in the US with the rest outside of the US and Canada.
    https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/fund/portfolio.aspx?t=0P00011073
    In 2022, Anderson's fund ranked at the 100th (Canadian) percentile, losing 33.12% while Coutts' BGETX lost 34.43%. YTD, the former gained 10.47% while the latter gained 11.27%. Hard to tell the two apart. At least from a distance.
    https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/fund/performance.aspx?t=0P00011073
    As others have stated, analysts play a large role.
    Baillie Gifford’s staff turnover is negligible, at around 5% per year. Many analysts come straight from university and stay with Baillie Gifford for their whole career.
    In a recent research note, Winterflood points out that other partners have left without any apparent impact on their funds.
    https://portfolio-adviser.com/will-baillie-gifford-avoid-the-major-transition-pitfalls-as-growth-architect-james-anderson-leaves/
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    James Anderson chaired Baillie Gifford's international growth portfolio construction group
    in addition to managing Vanguard International Growth and two other U.S. mutual funds.
    He was instrumental in developing/implementing the firm's successful global growth investing strategy.
    However, Baillie Gifford (BG) has a deep bench and Mr. Anderson's succession was well-planned.
    Thomas Coutts (joined BG in 1999) has managed the fund alongside Anderson since 2016.
    Lawrence Burns (joined BG in 2009) was added as a fund manager in 2020.
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    James Anderson retired in 2022 from VWIGX /VWILX. He was the lead Baillie Gifford (70% of fund AUM) manager who very successfully ran "high focus", "concentrated", "aggressive" strategy. The "international" is interpreted generously, so North American exposure is 14.3%.
    Schroders is the other manager with 30% AUM and follows tamer growth strategy.
    Question should be - how effectively Anderson trained his Baillie Gifford colleagues who had some overlaps with him?
    NOT a sleep-well fund.
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    I've been planning to liquidate our holding in Matthews Pacific Tiger (MAPTX) and was going to put that money into Artisan International Value (ARTKX), but have discovered it is closed to new investors; bummer!
    What alternatives would you suggest? My priorities:
    1. Long-term, sustained outperformance versus a relevant benchmark
    2. stable management
    3. low fees (expense ratio); no-load
    4. low turnover
    5. available from our Vanguard brokerage account
    6. invests primarily overseas; we already have plenty of US-based investments
    Thanks for any suggestions!
    Randy

    Have you considered Vanguard International Growth?
    1. Top-decile 10 Yr and 15 Yr fund category returns (period ending 03-31-23)
    2. Schroder Investment Management advised since 1981; Baillie Gifford advised since 2003
    3. Expense Ratio: VWILX - 0.34% ($50K min.); VWIGX - 0.45% ($3K min.)
    4. Turnover: 2019 - 13%; 2020 - 20%; 2021 - 25%; 2022 - 15%
    5. Available via Vanguard brokerage
    6. 87% foreign; 13% U.S. (as of 01-31-23)
    Vanguard International Growth is a volatile fund with a standard deviation of 25.16 as of 03-31-23.
    M* classifies the fund as high risk relative to the Foreign Large Growth fund category.
    VWILX performance in 2022 was terrible - it declined 30.79%.
  • Anybody care to recommend a good natural resources ETF?
    I don't think it's any easier today for a fund to corral heads of steer than it was in 2006 :-)
    Good point. You’d need some pretty high boots I suppose. :)
    Casks of single malt wouldn’t appear too hard to store. Price and quality increase with age. For example, a 15-year old tastes better and sells for more than a 10-year.
    I find GLTR interesting. From my reading it’s non-traditional among the precious metals funds in that it uses derivatives rather than physically holding the metals. Also spreads the risk across 4 different precious metals, though predominantly invested in gold.
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    I've been planning to liquidate our holding in Matthews Pacific Tiger (MAPTX) and was going to put that money into Artisan International Value (ARTKX), but have discovered it is closed to new investors; bummer!
    What alternatives would you suggest? My priorities:
    1. Long-term, sustained outperformance versus a relevant benchmark
    2. stable management
    3. low fees (expense ratio); no-load
    4. low turnover
    5. available from our Vanguard brokerage account
    6. invests primarily overseas; we already have plenty of US-based investments
    Thanks for any suggestions!
    Randy
  • Anybody care to recommend a good natural resources ETF?
    @hank, only the precious metal funds may own physical commodities.

    Thanks. Guessing it’s a SEC limitation?
    My impression is that this is more of a pragmatic limitation than a legal one. There are certainly additional legal constraints on owning physical commodities, e.g. the fund may have to be structured as a grantor trust. That's surmountable. The reason that one does not find physical commodities in funds is that a fund does not want to take ownership of most physical things.
    Here's part of a 2006 Morgan Stanley piece on commodity ETFs:
    The following is an excerpt from our August 22, 2006 report, Six ETFs Provide Exposure to Commodity Markets.
    Six ETFs provide commodity exposure in one of two ways. The relatively low cost of storing a bar of gold enables the streetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD) and the iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) to invest in and store physical gold bullion. The same is true for iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which invests in silver bullion. However, it is less practical to store oil, industrial metals and perishable agricultural products or livestock. As a result, the iShares GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG), which tracks an index of 24 commodities, the PowerShares DC Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC), which tracks an index of six commodities, and the United States Oil Fund (USO), which provides exposure to oil, utilize the futures markets to track their benchmark indices.
    https://dirtyresearch.files.wordpress.com/2006/11/ms200611etfquarterly.pdf
    I don't think it's any easier today for a fund to corral heads of steer than it was in 2006 :-)
  • Infinity Q Capital Management Plans to Return $500 Million to Mutual-Fund Investors
    Excerpted from a CityWire article published on 04/07/2023.
    "James Velissaris, the founder, former CIO and lead portfolio manager of Infinity Q Capital Management, was sentenced to 15 years in prison and ordered to pay an unspecified amount of restitution by US District Judge Denise Cote on Friday afternoon in Manhattan."
    "Velissaris, 38, of Atlanta, pleaded guilty in November 2022 to one count of securities fraud in a deal with federal prosecutors in the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York that dropped several other felony charges and required him to forfeit $22m. The charges came about as a result of his role in a $1bn fund overvaluation scheme, with federal officials publicly levying their accusations in early 2022."
    Link (paywall)
    I'm glad that Mr. Velissaris received a lengthy prison sentence for the serious crimes he committed.
    Hopefully, this case will deter others in the financial industry from engaging in fraudulent schemes.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    Thanks Yogi. Can’t confirm - but I get the impression Forsyth enjoys time away from that duty. It’s a demanding role. Must take a toll on one over time.
    PS - The (alleged) comments Serwer attributes to NYC real estate magnates comparing their professional lives today as existing inside a “fishbowl” or “goat rodeo” are hilarious. :).
    And then there’s Jack Hough: “My car seems to be beating the stock market.” - LOL
    Hough’s whole article is a riot. Worth the price of the publication alone … Well, also somber if you’re in the market for a new car. New car prices are up 21% since September 2020. (Used car prices even more.) “Sub-$20,000 models” are “nearly extinct” - with those priced at under $25,000 “next in line” for extinction.
    Agree with others - it’s an excellent article on International Funds by @LewisBraham. Very extensive and comprehensive look at opportunities in various corners of the international markets and the related trade-offs.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    Andy Serwer is a heavy hitter hired by Barron's in January 2023. Since then, he has already done several feature stories, 1 cover story, and, yes, this week is his shot at the Up and Down Wall Street.
    Andy Serwer's Barron's Stories https://www.barrons.com/authors/andy-serwer?mod=article_byline
    Press Release https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/01/30/2597513/0/en/Andy-Serwer-Joins-Barron-s-as-Editor-at-Large.html
  • Anybody care to recommend a good natural resources ETF?
    @hank, I don’t have consistent results from several natural resource funds.
    However, I use an actively managed commodity futures ETF, COM. COM have quite well in last several year. I recalled it was recommended by @lynnbolin on this board. COM has the flexibility to go ‘long’ or ‘flat’ on a number of oil, gasoline, industrial metals precious metals, agricultural products, and livestock.
    https://markets.ft.com/data/etfs/tearsheet/performance?s=COM:PCQ:USD
    Overall, I found COM to be much less volatile in stress time and being in the right sectors more often than not. The active management part does work! YTD return is over 10% while DBC is down -2%.
  • Anybody care to recommend a good natural resources ETF?
    @hank, only the precious metal funds may own physical commodities. Most other commodity funds use futures for commodity exposures, and some may be leveraged via futures (i.e. more than 100% exposure).
    My short list included those funds that select 10-15 best trending commodities from a pool of 20-25 commodities. Many other commodity funds may sound general in name but may have heavy concentrations in energy or ags.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    Excellent article by @LewisBraham.
    His article titled "It’s the Right Time to Invest Overseas..." was very good.
    Link (Paywall)
  • What day did WSJ include their first quarter report ?
    My suspicion is the WSJ's 1st quarter 2023 mutual funds & etfs will be published on 4/10.