+1. DODIX: the one with the medals and reputation! Cool. I'm using Weitz bonds, keeping it domestic. I had been all in Junk, but no more. Junk might really be quite OK, but I'm not going to go chasing every little observation from the experts.I'm still getting over 5% with I.G. paper. And we still are in a supposed interim period, with tariffs "suspended" temporarily...

Over the past several months, we’ve seen hundreds—if not thousands—of “on-fire” opinions from posters, pundits, and even Nobel Prize-winning economists. Many insisted these issues were directly tied to the markets.
Among the loudest claims:
• The economy is in shambles.
• Inflation is going to destroy us.
• The stock market is doomed.
• Tariffs will be disastrous for consumers and the markets.
• The southern border can’t be secured, and violent criminals can’t be arrested.
• Boeing is finished.
• Anything going wrong in the U.S. is Trump’s fault.
The Reality:
• The S&P 500 is up—positive performance for the year.
• The economy is stable. Nothing major has collapsed.
• Inflation has declined from 3% to 2.3%. Employment remains solid.
• The southern border is more secure than it has been in years, and many violent criminals have been apprehended.
• U.S. businesses have been and continue accelerating their shift away from China.
• Tariffs, as any reasonable observer would note, were a bargaining chip. The U.K. signed a deal. Others are negotiating. If India signs, it will be a significant milestone. The EU is finally engaging seriously. In the next several months you will see more. Any agreement where the US gets a better deal is a win. It doesn’t matter if it’s 5%, 10% or more. The US is like Amazon or Apple; you pay to sell your merchandise or software.
• China remains a complex challenge, but no one expected a quick fix. Even if an agreement came, skepticism would still be warranted. The broader focus is shifting global trade relationships while collaborating with others.
• The U.S. has seen a surge of private and foreign investment that are fueling job growth, innovation, and opportunity across every corner of the country https://www.whitehouse.gov/investments/
• The Middle East trip was a huge success, more business, and hopefully regional realignment is underway.
• The US brokered a ceasefire fire between India and Pakistan.
• Boeing has secured billions in new business.
• A deal was signed with Ukraine for access to minerals, hydrocarbons, and infrastructure development.
What to Expect from the Left:
• Denial of progress.
• Minimization of any agreement.
• Distractions, instead of cooperation on long-standing shared priorities.
• Focusing on trivial issues while ignoring major developments.
For example, the outrage over Jamal Khashoggi’s killing becomes the headline—while major diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East go ignored. Uniting the region against Iran, China, and Russia; increasing U.S. business opportunities; lowering oil prices; and cutting off funds to terrorism and war—those are significant outcomes.
Let’s not forget:
• Who brokered the Abraham Accords?
• Who dismantled ISIS?
The “on-fire” posts will likely continue for years.
The conclusions:
* We should go back and discuss investments.
* Politics and worries don’t have a high correlation to our portfolios and why we should disregard them.
* Your political side can’t be always right, and the other side can’t be always evil and wrong. Why the nonstop 110% on-fire outrage ranting and name-calling? People lose the ability to tell what’s truly serious.

As I recall, when S&P downgraded US debt, treasuries went up in price.
ISTM that investors are well aware of the national debt, the projected $2T annual deficits as far as the eye can see, and the intramural GOP squabbling over the size of the deficit.
Everything may already be priced in. Moody's is late to the party.

Took a portion of my growing MMkt. stash to buy Core-plus bonds in WCPNX. It'll go through on Monday, 19th May, '25. Planning equity purchases when the opportunity raises its head. Got a couple of single stocks in mind. Or, might add to existing positions. The devil will be in the details, and the timing will be contingent. What else is new? ET BLX BBVA CPA on the radar. At 70, staring at age 71, I like to see dividends.

16 May, 2025. Dani Burger is in.
Consumer sentiment at 2nd-lowest level on record. Univ. Michigan survey. Uncertainty is the word, these days. Tony Rodriguez (Nuveen) and Robt. Tipp (PGIM.) Inflation fear is a bit more "legitimate" than the Consumer Sentiment survey, because the UM survey mostly missed the latest info re: trade deal with China. Just a calendar matter, even though the UM survey is a routine institution, going back years and years. Still, a consumer slowdown will negatively affect the economy, though not to the point of a recession. 10-year rate probably around 4.25% by year-end. 30-year maybe at 5%. that would be attractive to would-be buyers.
...Pressure in budget discussions re: federal debt. (And Moody's just DOWNGRADED U.S. debt!) Tipp thinks that HY bonds will not disappoint, with not too much volatility, looking back from 10 years hence. ...Burger addressed the distinction between irresponsible deficits vs. stimulus that could serve its purpose without driving up inflation: Tipp responded with "all things are relative. Look at the Big Picture, compared to France, elsewhere, the EU. We could raise taxes more easily than they could, "if need be." ("If need be???" Are you on drugs?????). "Everyone in the Developed Market club is 100% debt to GDP these days." (I guess the value of the dollar doesn't matter to Tipp very much?)
CREDIT ISSUANCES: Europe, busiest week since January. McDonald's, Pfizer Yankee Bonds. Total, YTD reverse Yankee Bonds out of Europe = 82B euros.
UPS, US Bank, Woodside, SocGen and Truist. Above $40B for 2 weeks running.
JUNK: Kohl's, Carnival.
Credit spreads are expected to remain tight. Amanda Lyman and Winnie Cisar. LYMAN: optimism in the midst of the uncertainty. CISAR: April volatility was short-lived.
Spreads are wider than at the start of the year. No way to time the Market, best to make sure you're not under-invested. We've been experiencing 18 months of momentum. But let's see what happens after the 90-day countdown to the end of suspended tariffs. It's Ok to "selectively" move down in credit quality. Liquidity still looks healthy. LYNAM: all-in yield is still attractive.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-05-16/bloomberg-real-yield-05-16-2025-video

Morningstar DBRS still has US at AAA.
https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/451559/morningstar-dbrs-confirms-the-united-states-of-america-at-aaa-stable-trend
Moody's downgrade came after the market close on Friday, so any impact would be seen in Sunday evening futures trading and certainly on Monday.

The Week in Charts (05/16/25)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:53 Topics
01:52 Both Sides Blinked
04:58 One of the Greatest Comebacks in Market History
08:25 What a Difference a Month Makes
12:49 Lowest Inflation in 4 Years
19:49 Watch What They Do, Not What They Say
26:26 Healthcare Sector Woes
30:55 The New/Existing Home Divide
35:00 Rising Real Wages
Video
Blog

Finally, Moody's joined S&P (2011) and Fitch (2023).
https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-debt-credit-rating-moodys-3c24a5f9?mod=RTA
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moodys-downgrades-us-aa1-rating-204908886.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/16/moodys-downgrades-united-states-credit-rating-on-increase-in-government-debt.html
https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/u-s-downgraded-to-aa1-by-moodys

Got to get a kick out of this “all bark and NO bite”.
Asian Leaders See Right Through Trump’s Tariff Man Act

President Donald Trump just taught a masterclass in how to lose a trade war. His spectacular retreat on China tariffs in Geneva this week—for very little in return—has officials across Asia sighing with relief.
Trump’s slashing import taxes on China from 145% to 30% increases the odds Asia’s biggest economy will achieve its 5% growth target this year. That will be a boon for growth and markets across the region. And other Asian governments now have a blueprint on how to slow-walk Trump’s bilateral trade deal process and avoid giving away the store to America’s most mercantilist leader in 125 years.
A caveat: Trump won’t be happy to read the many headlines about him caving in Geneva, nor will he be pleased to learn China isn’t about to throw big concessions his way. This unflattering news cycle could see the “Tariff Man” return to negotiating tables with a vengeance.

https://apple.news/AATAs-ngPRjqT835j3HvWeQ

UBS is shutting its robo-advisor.
In 2024, JP Morgan shut its digital-only robo-advisor, and Goldman Sachs shut Marcus Invest (robo accounts were sold to Betterment).
While Rohinhood is getting into robo-advising.
More popular are hybrid robo-advisors that add human intermediaries.
Big players are Vanguard, Schwab, Fidelity, Betterment, Wealthfront (few years ago, UBS almost bought it, but now UBS quits this business), etc.
Most buyers of robo-advisors may be fine with traditional allocation funds or TDFs (with glide-paths).
https://www.barrons.com/advisor/articles/ubs-to-close-robo-advisor-45ba41cb?mod=RTA

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250514835844/en/Hartford-Funds-Announces-the-Closure-and-Liquidation-of-Four-Exchange-Traded-Funds
Affected ETFs:
Hartford Schroders Commodity Strategy ETF, Hartford Longevity Economy ETF, Hartford Multifactor Diversified International ETF and Hartford Multifactor International Small Company ETF are expected to liquidate on or about June 30, 2025

Katie Stockton?
A month ago she said "Investors should use the relief rally to reduce exposure, says Fairlead’s Katie Stockton"
Watch it at https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/04/17/investors-should-use-the-relief-rally-to-reduce-exposure-says-fairleads-katie-stockton.html
Just for info, Katie Stockton has been managing a "great" fund, called TACK for over 3 years with a pretty bad performance. See the chart https://schrts.co/ZSnmTnxR
For 3 years both TACK and PRWCX have similar SD about 11, but PRWCX made 90% more (almost double) 19.3% vs 36.6%.
So, what happened if you sold a month ago? you missed about 10% of the SP500

Interesting. Thanks @Yogi. It’s the difference between NAV and market price that makes CEFs intriguing. I like that they don’t always trade in sync with the underlying assets. Sabra is intent on destroying these entities and converting them into OEFs or ETFs in order to skim off the extra value. Market forces at work. Boaz has a right to do this (and in the process charge his CEFS shareholders an exorbitant 3.5% management fee.) But I don’t know if that’s really in the CEFs owners’ best interest. Feels similar to corporate raiders who buy companies and strip off some of the assets for quick profits, while longer term the company may flounder or lose profitability.
One or more of my CEFs have clauses in the prospectus saying that if the NAV exceeds the market price by a certain percentage over a certain period of time the fund will be converted into a OEF. Perhaps that’s intended to prevent Weinstein from targeting them.
Weinstein is a convincing proponent of his methodology. I’ve listened to some of his media interviews and he comes across as very authentic and well intended. I do see there are 2 sides to the issue. There are a great many CEFs in existence including those run by well known Rick Rieder. So I don’t think they’re going to disappear any time soon.
I do not own any Pioneer CEFs.

Pioneer Shuts Its CEFs
Pioneer Investments is shutting its closed-end fund (CEF) operation that had $1 billion in 6 CEFs (HY, HY muni, FR). Victory Capital/VCTR (AUM $300 billion) bought Amundi that had bought Pioneer. These CEFs were up for management contract renewals and CEF activists such as Saba, etc had loaded up on shares to defeat the changes. So, when the votes for the new management contract failed, rather than fight the activists or change the fund structure (to OEF or ETF), Victory decided to just fold them. CEFs are among the oldest fund structures around but they have many issues that have prevented CEFs from becoming popular. Other fund structures have evolved – OEFs, CITs, ETFs, interval-funds (IFs). However, other CEF firms are unlikely to follow Pioneer, although some firms with minor CEF operations may also quit the business.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/pioneer-closed-end-funds-liquidates-2a668c7b?refsec=income-investing&mod=topics_income-investing
https://pioneerinvestments.com/products/closed-end-funds
https://www.icifactbook.org/pdf/2025-factbook-ch5.pdf

...15th May, 2025: Just opened an automated email from Schwab. It invited me to do a "portfolio check-up." I did. It offers some "X-Ray" features which Morningstar has recently decided to withhold from me. Timely. Others might find it useful, too.

That article is from 1/24/2025. (Wall Street underestimating)

Good catch. My goof. However I listened to Ives last evening on Bloomberg repeating the same belief. comment. If I can dig up a more timely citation I’ll

revise my original comment. Thanks @gman57.

It happens a lot, I try and triple check because I sometimes see something and go wow that's interesting not realizing it's a few years old. They don't even put dates on some articles.

That article is from 1/24/2025. (Wall Street underestimating)

Good catch. My goof. However I listened to Ives last evening on Bloomberg repeating the same belief. comment. If I can dig up a more timely citation I’ll revise my original comment. Thanks @gman57.

That article is from 1/24/2025. (Wall Street underestimating)

AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/14/25
BEARISH remained the top sentiment (44.4%, high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (19.7%, very low); bullish remained the middle sentiment (35.9%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -8.5%* (below average). Investor concerns: Tariffs, jobs, inflation, recession, Fed, budget, debt, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (168+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+7 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks UP, bonds down, oil UP, gold DOWN, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 64.91% (positive). A temporary US-China trade deal followed a US-UK deal. An uneasy India-Pakistan truce followed short air-skirmishes. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
*Negative since 2/5/25.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1988/thread