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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • TRP. TOTR. ETF
    true. The advantages I see are the divs, plus a 13 percent discount, not to fair value, but to share price, compared to jan 1st. it has lost 13 percent ytd, but not me---not in that fund. there is an OEF version, too. DURATION: yes, a negative. 40 percent in top 10, too. concentrated. The OEF shows TURNOVER at 458 percent!!!!! Whoa. It would be for the IRA account, anyhow. I can continue to track it. Along with @hank, I'll be watching equities on Tues, and see if they hold up to what the Futures are showing just now, at almost 4:00 a.m. in the East.
  • M* screwing everything up again
    Not a website. But $1.99 a month gets you a fantastic tracker if you use IOS devices. I’d guess I’ve spent about 6 hours over the weekend mostly just learning my way around - plus setting up multiple portfolios. One emailed question to support was promptly answered, Not the easiest to learn, but has unbelievable functiinality (like automatically designing a pie-chart of each portfolio you enter). Amazing.
    Here’s what I added to my previous post above:
    “Footnote: I am thrilled with the “Portfolio Trader” app from Apple’s App Store. Beautiful layout and functionality compared to the M* tracker. Like driving a modern Ferrari compared to an old mini-van. Unfortunately, it takes a few hours to sort it all out. But at $2 monthly, they’re giving it away. And - yes. There is capability to import or export data for those who wish to do so. I need to follow it for a week to make sure the daily quotes are timely and correct. Currently they are spot-on.”
    Link to above tracker: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/portfolio-trader-stock-tracker/id581430942
    Here’s an Article purporting to describe “The 12 Best Stock Portfolio Trackers”.
  • M* screwing everything up again
    Any additional alternative websites to M* 's Portfolio trackers are appreciated.
    I will miss M* a lot, but I'm not paying them $250/yr.
  • NY Fed Sees 80% Probability of Hard Landing

    The next question is how to prepare for it on your asset allocation/investment vehicles so you can survive it better. Challenges today is that the traditional bonds and equities are falling at the same time and there are few viable alternatives.
    I just keep investing as usual - but tack a few extra years on to my investment “time horizon” every time I add another holding. Out to 30 years now, at which time I’ll be 105. Eat well. Keep cycling. Should make it!
  • Crypto next cycle to start by Q4
    See this chart for ARKK and short SARK with 2-yr view (change if defaults to 1-yr). Note that ARKK continued with another down-leg after SARK started in November 2021. So, start of SARK didn't lead to bottoming of ARKK.
    So, start of short Bitcoin-futures ETF by itself may not indicate bottoming for Bitcoin or cryptos. This long weekend, Bitcoin touched $17,649 and then rebounded strongly - will it hold? (see 5-day view in the 2nd link below; so much for Jan Van Eck, the head of IVZ saying in Barron's, 6/13/22, that Bitcoin may bottom around $30,000, LINK).
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=ARKK&compare=SARK&id=p81436041708
    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=
  • Crypto next cycle to start by Q4
    Well, now that it's already down about 70% from its ATH, this is a decent indicator the bottom may be in for Bitcoin, at least for a while...lol
    ProShares to Launch the First U.S. Short Bitcoin-Linked ETF on June 21
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220620005101/en/ProShares-to-Launch-the-First-U.S.-Short-Bitcoin-Linked-ETF-on-June-21
  • NY Fed Sees 80% Probability of Hard Landing
    According to research cited in this PDF, over the past 60 years only one true
    soft landing occurred when the Fed hiked to/above the "neutral" rate.
  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    Fees
    Schwab typically receives a fee from each issuer in connection with the placement of the CDs. Schwab may seek to negotiate a higher or lower placement fee based on Schwab's view of competitive necessities. The amount of the placement fee paid to Schwab will affect the interest rate the issuer is willing to pay on the CDs. Placement fees aid to Schwab generally range from 0 to 65 basis points (0.65%).
    https://www.schwab.com/resource/certificate-of-deposit-disclosure-statement
    As Ken Tumin writes over at depositacounts.com, sometimes you can't get your money out of a bank CD before maturity:
    Bank Refuses an Early Withdrawal Request
    It's bad enough that you will lose some interest, but it's possible that a bank can refuse the early withdrawal request. Some banks give themselves this right to refuse an early withdrawal in their disclosures.
    https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/important-details-of-cd-early-withdrawal-penalties.html
    He also notes that early withdrawal penalties are often more than 3 months interest: "For maturities over one year, a penalty of 6 months of interest is common."
    Then there's the risk that a CD may be callable by the issuer. I've seen that with brokered CDs but not with bank CDs. Though that's not proof that banks don't also issue callable CDs. Of course with rates rising, callability is not a concern.
  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    These 3rd party brokerage platforms (Fido, Schwab, etc) charge 0.25-0.50% fee for the CDs to be listed on their platforms. They don't do this as public service. So, many of these brokered CDs are from less-known and even financially shaky banks; several CDs may be from foreign banks. Be sure that the brokered CDs are covered by the FDIC insurance as some may not be.
    But there is one exception to these platform fees - the US Treasuries (T-Bills/Notes/Bonds, FRNs, TIPS, Zeros). Major brokers offer them commission-free. As banks are under the US supervision (via the Fed, FDIC, OCC), they are just playing nice. Banks do try to make up for this "free" service by using the float - most take your money on the Treasury auction day, or a few days after, but well before the settlement date. This is unlike stock trading where one has until the settlement day to have the money available.
  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    Fido is showing their current CD ladders as follows:
    1 yr = 2.14%
    2 yr = 2.75%
    5 yr = 3.14%
    When you click on these "CD ladders" at Fido, you may end up with some questionable CD issuers.
    Their FZDXX money market fund is giving .86% (7 day yield).
  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    Schwab is offering a 2 year CD at 3.10%, a 18 month CD at 2.7%, 12 month at 2.65%, 9 monrh at 2.1%, and 3 month at 1.8%. It takes a minimum of $10,000 for a CD. I am expecting these rates to increase substantially during the last half of 2022. Longer term CDs do not interest me.
  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    Local CU here (Hickam FCU, Oahu) offers 0.85% interest rate on a 60-month CD. And to get that, you must tie-up $200k. That's just a bad joke. Navy FCU--- my other one--- wants you to let them hold your money for SEVEN years in order to get 3.15% from them. No, thanks.
  • Looking for TCHP …..
    @hank, may be edit the Subject to fix the ticker. Thanks.
    BTW, bid-ask displayed over the weekends (or, when the markets are not open) are stub/fake quotes, not real at all.
    Yes. I took a screen shot when I did a test buy today. It shows: Bid $14.45X2 and Ask $000.X0 with volume of 117,543. So figured something was off.
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    There’s an extensive interview with Summers in Barron’s this week. He reiterates and expands upon the same points of view voiced on the show. I also record the show.
    What I enjoyed most on the most recent program was the brief 1971 clip of a youthful Louis Rukeyser pointing out the track of the Dow Jones over the previous 5 sessions. It appears that back than more importance was attached to the Dow than other indexes.
  • Importance of Consecutive 90% Down Days ????
    Relative to S&P 500, does not the current multiple on S&P400 seem beaten up? May be S&P400 is a better pond than S&P 500 to bottom fish. The current level of MDYG, the S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF, is not far from the pre-Covid high.
  • Importance of Consecutive 90% Down Days ????
    While the fwd P/E for small-cap (SC) R2000 has dropped dramatically, R2000 has many unprofitable companies (30-40% ?). Looking at more selective SP MC 400 and SP SC 600, those fwd P/Es have also dropped dramatically. See these charts by Yardeni via a Twitter post,
    https://twitter.com/ayeshatariq/status/1538469641722413062
    image

    The Russell 2000 is a flawed benchmark.
    As was mentioned, it includes many unprofitable companies since it doesn't screen for profitability.
    Also, the Russell 2000 index reconstitution process enables front-running.
    The S&P 600 is a better small-cap index.
  • Importance of Consecutive 90% Down Days ????
    “More than 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 declined today.
    It’s the 5th time in the past 7 days.
    Since 1928, there have been exactly 0 precedents.
    This is the most overwhelming display of selling in history.”

    I don't know the significance of this particular event.
    Looking at the broader picture, it appears that market volatility will be high in the coming months.
    An extended period of low inflation and "easy" money is behind us.
    The Federal Reserve is aggressively raising the Fed funds rate and has implemented quantitative tightening. There are several current, influential events - Ukraine war, COVID-19, supply chain issues - where the final outcome is unknown.
  • Barron’s likes asset managers
    Sorry my Kindle subscription won’t link to board. It’s a bit of a struggle just to excerpt short passages and post those. One way to dig up the article online is to cut & past the excerpt and than search for it. With some patience and using “Duck Go” or another good browser sometimes articles can be pulled up in their entirety - at least at first grab.
    The article is relatively brief. Most of us are aware these asset managers are way down. They tend to wax and wane as equity markets rise and fall, which affects their AUM. I’d say Barron’s was favorably disposed towards all 5 which I listed above. (Pick your own poison.) I’m saturated with financial type holdings. So not very interested in these. Otherwise I’d venture into BlackRock.
    My next foray will be to dive into some depressed tech. Hence, some interest in blue chip funds which tend to own a lot. I did notice that PRMTX is now open. A great fund in the past. Wouldn’t mind owning some. But suffering from fund inflation (having too many).
    Added: I’ll humbly submit that those of us who have witnessed first-hand some of the underlying issues at T. Rowe Price (primarily client commitment and service) may have a better “take” on the overall prospects for this firm than some analyst looking at historical performance or past and present P/E ratios. Those issues have been repeatedly referenced / described for well over a year now by some pretty astute members here. My guess is that they won’t be easily or quickly fixed.
  • PREMX / Issue?
    This year USD has been strong against many currencies. Also flight to safety I stress times also account for that. Learned that lesson from 2008 - EM debts fall like equity! In addition, those EM debts with sizable Russian exposure are added to their downfall.
    Not meant to hijack @hank’s tread,
    Last week even energy and utilities got taken out and shot.
    Any reasoning behind that? Notice that energy sector pulled back over at least 2X the weekly loss of that of S&P500.