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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • SIGIX and DODEX
    DODEX was discussed in the following MFO thread.

    +1
    D&C is a fine house. Low fees for actively managed funds. I was there (no longer am) about 20 years. Always felt like they were a bit more aggressive on their equity investments than some, which paid off handsomely if you had the patience to hang in there. Just an unscientific impression. Privately held (I like) and a history dating back to the 1930s.
    I also like D&C for many of the reasons you state.
    1) Privately held
    2) Low expense ratios for active funds (right out of the gate)
    3) Team-managed
    4) Managers and analysts are long-tenured
    5) Never created mutual funds to take advantage of latest investments fads - manage only 7 distinct funds
  • SIGIX and DODEX
    DODEX was discussed in the following MFO thread.
    +1
    D&C is a fine house. Low fees for actively managed funds. I was there (no longer am) about 20 years. Always felt like they were a bit more aggressive on their equity investments than some, which paid off handsomely if you had the patience to hang in there. Just an unscientific impression. Privately held (I like) and a history dating back to the 1930s.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/25/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/25/23
    BEARISH remained the top sentiment (43.2%; high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (27.5%; below average); bullish remained the middle sentiment (29.3%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -13.9% (below average). Investor concerns: Budget; inflation; economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine (87+ weeks, 2/24/22-now); Israel-Hamas; geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were down, bonds flat, oil down, gold up, dollar flat. Bond vigilantes are keeping long-term rates high. UAW & Ford settled. DC has House Speaker. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1221/thread
  • Does the market know something we don’t?
    Yeah, not to mention the incompetent buffoon crime lord we have sleeping in the White House, with all his grossly inept, corrupt appointees running the country into the ground.

    The incompetent buffoon crime lord lost the election in 2020 and is no longer in the White House.
    Perfectly stated.
  • CD versus Money Market Rates
    I think it makes sense if your liquidity needs are low and you can create a CD ladder of 3,6,9,12-month maturities. You will only need to keep cash you need less than 3 months in MM-Funds.
  • Selling Like Hotcakes - PIMIX, DODIX
    I'm surprised by the magnitude of DODIX inflows.
    DODIX is struggling this year (-1.77% YTD) as are many intermediate core/core-plus funds.
    Maybe these investors are focused on higher expected future returns
    instead of dwelling on recent performance for a change?
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Adding to TS in baby-sized bites. M* says the SP500 is 4.18% in energy.
    I'm at 17.63%.
    PRNEX. 10%
    ET. 4.41%. pipelines, midstream. Finalizing acquisition of Crestwood right now.
    TS 0.48% manufactures drilling pipes.
  • 529 Plan Vanguard Interest Acc Portfolio/Nevada Short term Reserves fund
    VG Interest Accumulation Portfolio looks like a stable-value (SV) fund within 529. It owns a combo of insurance contracts, institutional CDs and a big chunk in VMFXX. Its 2.63% yield is nothing to write home about even for the SV funds. But if you go back to the years of ZIRP, it probably did better than m-mkt funds and T-Bills. Vanguard probably designed this "camel by committee" to meet the requirements of state 529s.
    Good to know that 529 material at the YBB site was helpful.
    https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=396160
    https://investor.vanguard.com/accounts-plans/529-plans/profile/4528
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    “Some say 'government' some say 'clown car' others say 'insane asylum.' I say: 'Time for another scotch.' :)”
    Just priced coffee online. Anything good’s selling for $1 - $2 per ounce. Actually, you could buy a half decent bottle of scotch for what a pound of coffee costs now.
    Been playing around moving the deck chairs - well, bits and pieces of ‘em anyway. Sell @ $1.05 and buy something else for 97 cents. I think it’s called rotation. :)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I don't expect to reinvest the proceeds until after there is something like funding for the government going forward.
    What government?
    Some say 'government' some say 'clown car' others say 'insane asylum.' I say: 'Time for another scotch.' :)
    B/S/W-wise, BUI and BME continue to look interesting on the decline. Might add to unlevered BUI below 18.50 and continue to waffle about starting a position in BME for the unlevered healthcare exposure at some point. ASGI is another unlevered infrastructure play but I'm iffy on 'abdrn' for some reason.
    I continue to stalk preferreds to buy (or add to) on declines. For tax purposes, I find their QDI much more attractive in my taxable account than 5% treasuries.
  • 529 Plan Vanguard Interest Acc Portfolio/Nevada Short term Reserves fund
    Q for the community. Vanguard's Interest Accumulation Portfolio (a choice I'm considering for the 529 plan) is in Nevada Short Term Reserves fund. That has a benchmark of 90% in 3 month Tbills. However, its YTD return is 1.83% Why? Why is it so hard to just stuff some Tbills in ? Appreciate if anyone can help. @ybb I've looked through your website on 529s and it was very helpful. ALso bogleheads has a similar question about why this Nevada plan is a stinker?
    https://investor.vanguard.com/accounts-plans/529-plans/profile/4528
  • Selling Like Hotcakes - PIMIX, DODIX
    @BaluBalu - I’m mentally pulled in three directions: 1) Buy the Dip in Equities, 2) purchase 3,6,12, or 2-yr treasuries, or 3) just leave the cash in VMFXX and collect monthly. Sheesh! What’s a retiree to do? Well, at least there’s a choice.
  • Selling Like Hotcakes - PIMIX, DODIX
    Well, maybe I need a new set of specs, but I’m seeing DODIX off 11% last year and down another 1% percent this year …
    It would be interesting to know where those inflows into DODIX are coming from? From other D&C funds, or is it new money coming into D&C?
  • Selling Like Hotcakes - PIMIX, DODIX
    With so much negativity on bonds around, here is some interesting data on YTD inflows for 2 familiar bond funds:
    Multisector PIMIX YTD inflow +$13 billion or +11.4% of AUM (cousins ETF PYLD; CEFs PDI, PDO, PAXS)
    Core-Plus DODIX YTD inflow +$6 billion or +10.2% of AUM
    Inflows for LC-growth OLGAX top the M* list.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/3-hottest-selling-funds
  • Does the market know something we don’t?
    “How is the market hanging in there under the current circumstances?”
    “… strings and ceiling wax and other fancy stuff”
    But I’m not certain your original premise is fully accurate. A check of Bloomberg shows all 3 major indexes well below their 52 week highs. Until yesterday the Dow was actually in negative territory for the year. And if you compare the Dow to where it was 2 years ago, it’s substantially lower.
    DJI close on October 29, 2021 35,816
    DJI close on October 24, 2023 33,141
    (*Quotation from ”Puff the Magic Dragon”)
  • Does the market know something we don’t?
    Factoring in current events, the "market" has been incredibly resilient this year.
    The recent Fed’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicated the median net worth
    of American families climbed 37% between 2019 and 2022 after adjusting for inflation.
    Consumers were in a strong financial position which allowed continued spending in 2023.
    It will be interesting to see how the "market" reacts if/when spending materially deteriorates.
    American Household Wealth Jumped in the Pandemic
  • Leuthold: it's "into the dumpster"
    Leuthold's summative metric is the Major Trends Index (MTI), which is a sort of weighted average of 140 individual metrics that their research says is predictive of the market's prospects. In the past week, the previously negative reading (-2) has worsened as the market's technicals (measures such as advance/decline lines and breadth of movement) have deteriorated. The MTI is now at its worst possible reading, -3.
    Here's their summary:
    The Major Trend Index slipped another notch to -3 in the week ended October 20th, thanks to a two-point breakdown in the Technical category. All four of the MTI’s factor groupings are now negative, supporting a defensive stance toward the stock market.
    Leuthold tactical portfolios—including the Core Fund, Core private accounts, Core ETF, and Global Fund—are all positioned with net equity exposure of 43%.
    On a short-term basis, it’s troubling that a market setback as internally deep as the current one hasn’t resulted in more improvement in the Sentiment work. The “wall of worry” accompanying much of the 2023 market action has morphed into a “slope of hope.”
    On a long-term basis, it’s worrisome that S&P 500 valuation measures still look so high, despite the index having gone nowhere in the last 29 months. But there’s a silver lining to this year’s incredibly narrow market action: The “average stock” in our Leuthold 3000 universe has sunk to even lower valuation levels than seen at last October’s bear market lows.
    Across the 40 inputs to the Technical category, there were zero upgrades and nine downgrades.
    In the last three months of decline, LCORX has lost 50% of what its peers have; over the past three years, its made 250% of what they have (per Morningstar).
    The LCORX homepage, which is moderately interesting.
  • Does the market know something we don’t?
    A few things come to mind:
    1) Consumers are still spending. What inflation?
    2) US markets will always attract cash from all over the world. Still viewed as most solid and stable.
    3) If asset bubbles were to burst, the perception is that they will re-inflate soon enough thanks to a meddling Fed intervention.
  • Moving Average MA or EMA?
    @Charles, thanks. Most sites have both MA & EMA (M*, MFO, StockCharts, Yahoo Finance, etc).
    I tried to explain the differences and when to use them. For short-term trades, EMA (14d, 20d, 50d) may be more useful, but for longer term trades, either is fine, and simple may be better (so, just 200-dMA, etc).