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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Schwab: Shake Off Emotions and Control your Portfolio
    Top 10% of residents in US own 87-93% of total stock market. That’s why top 10% control 50% of consumer spending. The stock market is irrelevant to over 80% of residents. They are more worried about rent and beef prices.
  • Why buy the S&P 500?
    Concur. RWL is another possibility that focus on the company’s revenue. It has 9.4% exposure to tech sector versus the 31% of that in S&P500 index.
    RWL, SPGP, and SPHQ are now in the red for four weeks. It's tech, or nothing, in the U.S. market.
  • Why buy the S&P 500?
    Concur. RWL is another possibility that focus on the company’s revenue. It has 9.4% exposure to tech sector versus the 31% of that in S&P500 index.
  • repo market -- thoughts?
    Reuters says it was over $50 billion...I'm also seeing more news reports of subprime loans, ARMs making a comeback, credit card delinquincies, private credit/equity shenanigans and blowups, etc which gives me pause.
    The Fed’s Standing Repo Facility lent a total of $50.35 billion on Friday to eligible financial firms in two separate availabilities, the highest-ever usage since the tool was put in place in 2021 to provide fast loans collateralized with Treasury or mortgage bonds. At the same time, financial firms also parked a considerable amount of cash on Fed books, with the reverse repo facility seeing inflows of $51.8 billion.
    https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/banks-tap-fed-standing-repo-facility-record-numbers-amid-month-end-pressures-2025-10-31/
  • Schwab: Shake Off Emotions and Control your Portfolio
    @MikeW
    People who call the polio vaccine, elimination of congenital Rubella, almost complete elimination of massive strokes because of VA funded research into anti-coagulation and atrial fibrillation "boring" are incredibly misinformed, and apparently do not want to learn anything.
    A letter I just sent into the editor of a local paper
    To The Editor
    In 40 years of primary care medical practice all of my patients with metastatic melanoma died. Two good friends also developed it. One is considered cured today, only because of research that Trump’s budget would cut.
    Anne W had melanoma in 1987, treated with the then newest therapy, interferon. Studies showed six months average survival (an increase). An occasional patient lived 2 or 3 years. Unfortunately, Anne did not.
    In 2021, another friend WJ, was treated with Ipilimuab and Nivolumab, new monoclonal antibodies, and is now considered cured. A study this year found these drugs increased average survival to at least 10 years (and still counting).
    Government funded National Institutes of Health research was responsible for this dramatic difference. I have many other examples of amazingly improved treatments of other cancers, heart disease, stokes, and diabetes during my 40 years of medical practice. Millions of Americans have survived and been cured of hundreds of other diseases, due to NIH research.
    Trump wants to cut the NIH budget by 40% to $29 Billion, with grants approved by politicians, not scientists. But ICE gets $90 Billion! (Ironically, Russell Voight, Trump’s budget director’s young daughter is alive today because of an NIH cystic fibrosis cure.)
    “DOGE” eliminated 50% of WJ’s oncologist’s melanoma research, and he may leave the country.
    When will the public realize our lives are threatened by Trump’s anti-science policies and budget cuts and demand they stop?
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (11/03/25)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing...
    00:00 Intro
    00:24 Topics
    01:33 Buy in May and Stay
    03:27 Active Managers Go All-In
    08:19 A Narrowing Advance
    12:12 Big Tech, Big Profits
    18:50 The End of QT
    24:07 More Sellers Than Buyers
    26:48 More Affordable Rents
    Video
    Blog
  • Why buy the S&P 500?
    Given the massive run up and the high PE etc ratios, I would not expect the SP500 to do much over the next ten years. that is certainly what has happened historically. It was dead in the water for up to 13 years or more after 1998
    Much better to diversify into cheaper stuff or RSP. Lots of other things went up. Trees do not grow to the sky
  • Why buy the S&P 500?
    Tina was simply the BEST in my opinion.
    As for S&P 500 funds I don't/didn't have time to suss out all the various idiosyncrasies of all the options available and just went with FXAIX in my Roth and XLG in my taxable account until I change my mind.
  • Why buy the S&P 500?
    the best, FXAIX
    The best for you and undeniably one of the best. But simply the best, better than all the rest?

    ETFs offer greater accessibility at possibly lower trading cost (bid/ask spread vs. TF at many non-Fidelity brokerages). Institutional investors and traders may have difficulty using FXAIX with its restriction of two round trips within 90 days (trading rights are suspended if this is exceeded).
    In terms of raw performance, FXAIX is arguably not even the best. Fidelity's Flex fund FDFIX, used by Fidelity's robo advisor, has a better 5 year return (it hasn't been around for 10 years yet). On the DIY front, USPRX ($100K min) has a better 10 year return. Though technically not an S&P 500 fund, Lipper includes it in its S&P500 index category.
    Different strokes for different folks. "Best" here can be mathematically quantified by constructing an "objective" function that measures how good a fund is. But each person's priorities translate into different objective functions.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    .... This is a very interesting read from 2015. Mass deportations will absolutely accelerate the problems with population decline.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/02/17/population-decline-and-the-great-economic-reversal/

    What I am fixing to say doesn't change my current concern about the unwinnable situation we are creating for our young people. This is just a random off the cuff incoherent set of thoughts I had after reading the Forbes article and more about the far range future, if there is one.
    Yes, we all might have written a similar article ourselves with variations in both imagination and vision. The population issues are monovariant in a polyvariant world projection. The author brings up some of the other variables (e.g. AI) but, without a precedence on which to train, the interactions of the missing variables is subject to speculation. For example, in my childhood I would have had no way to even speculate how I filled my time in retirement since I would have, with my limited vision, not seen the iPhone and computer that fill my retirement days.
    Probably because of my own background, my version of the Forbes article would have embedded more AI/robotics in the vision of the direction of a future of declining birth rates. But bi, tri, etc. variations still can never incorporate the future unknowns, e.g. my own transistor world that died with digital evolution and information age.
    The author of the Forbes article seems to be wringing his hands over demographic worldwide shifts. I am more optimistic, or have been until recently. (I cannot predict outcomes if time moves backward along with decreased fertility rates. I suppose birth control would need to be outlawed completely to keep wages at poverty levels.) Assuming a more forward projected future, I just see positive change for the human experience. Who says the measure of life is a job? Maybe, with refusal to morph the cast system into something more fun and satisfying, meaningless exchanges of work for subsidence might be unchangeable. I want to believe we just have limited vision about the result of our more powerful, sometimes pessimistic and frightening, imagination.
    Coincidentally, this came out in the W.Post today:
  • WealthTrack Show
    There have been a number of manager changes at Vanguard International Explorer (VINEX).
    Schroder Investment Management was the sole manager when Vanguard acquired the fund in June 2002.
    AUM grew quickly and the fund was forced to close two years later before reopening in October 2008.
    It seemed like the fund would close in 2010 but Wellington Management was added as a sub-adviser instead.
    AUM exceeded $3.5 billion in late 2017 — breaching the previous asset high-water mark —
    and Vanguard added TimesSquare Capital Management as the third sub-adviser.
    Baillie Gifford was added as the fourth sub-adviser three years later.
    Vanguard fired TimesSquare in 2022 after only five years on the job.
    Baillie Gifford was fired in March 2025 after approximately five years.
    VINEX now has two sub-advisors — Wellington Management with 60% of the portfolio
    and Schroder Investment Management with 40% of the portfolio.
    https://www.independentvanguardadviser.com/iva-quick-take-vanguard-reshuffles-international-explorer-again/
    Note: Subscription required to access article in its entirety.
  • Why buy the S&P 500?
    "But timing is everything and I think morningstar stated that most equity mutual funds
    show Investor return to be less than NAV return over 3-15 yr periods because people
    buy funds when they've already captured much of the upside over those periods."

    I believe you are referring to Morningstar's annual Mind the Gap study.
    "We estimate the average dollar invested in US mutual funds and exchange-traded funds
    earned 7.0% per year over the decade ended Dec. 31, 2024.
    That estimate, which is akin to an internal rate of return calculation,
    accounts for investors’ purchases and sales of fund shares during that 10-year period."
    "The 7.0% annual dollar-weighted return is about 1.2 percentage points per year
    less than these funds’ 8.2% aggregate annual total return
    (which assumes an initial lump-sum purchase) over the 10 years ended Dec. 31, 2024.
    That 'gap' is explained by the timing and magnitude of investors’ transactions during the period."
    https://www.morningstar.com/financial-advisors/volatility-bedevils-fund-investors
  • Why buy the S&P 500?
    they key is pinpointing these funds ahead of time and capturing the upside. these funds exist in batches of other funds with similar performance/metrics for a specific period of time.
    A financial advisor about 5 years ago published a list of mutual funds with a longtime track record of 12% or more returns and that had a very positive previous 10 years. He was very much like see Dave Ramsey was right this is easy! someone looked at those funds 5 years later and did a memorandum. only 12% of those funds (most sector and large growth) beat the sp500. And it was a very popular post in Dave Ramsey circles which tells me tons of people likely built their portfolios around them.
    lots of people have caught lightning in a bottle and captured the upside of funds like AIVSX/DODGX as a result of their proliferation in retirement plans.
    But timing is everything and I think morningstar stated that most equity mutual funds show Investor return to be less than NAV return over 3-15 yr periods because people buy funds when they've already captured much of the upside over those periods.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    @msf I hear you. But I tend to keep thinking about young people starting out and forming a family while facing job disruptions and high housing costs. Also, from what I can see the direction of the country safety net is headed, they will need to have wages that cover private pay, unsubsidized, of things like healthcare, food and retirement. This means wages that grow from jobs that are secure. What counts is prospering over time. Stagnation won't get them there.
    The unemployment rate for youth graduates (20-24) has averaged 8.1% over the last three months, its highest in four years.
    And you rightfully point out that employers are eliminating pensions and passing on higher health care costs. The government wants them to be popping out kids to help with labor shortages. The employment/economic conditions do not support this.
    This is a very interesting read from 2015. Mass deportations will absolutely accelerate the problems with population decline.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/02/17/population-decline-and-the-great-economic-reversal/
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs

    https://www.axios.com/2025/10/19/turkey-prices-bird-flu-supply-thanksgiving-holiday?
    Wholesale Turkey Prices Are Up by a Staggering 40% This Thanksgiving
    POULTRY OFFERING
    U.S. turkey stocks have plummeted to a 40-year low amid bird flu outbreaks, driving up wholesale prices by almost half. The American Farm Bureau Federation reports that tighter production is putting a squeeze on the nation’s flock ahead of Thanksgiving. It said wholesale turkey prices are about 40 percent higher than last year. Data from the USDA shows that 514,000 birds have been affected by avian flu this month. In total, 2.2 million birds have died in the past year across 12 states.

    Maybe buy your turkeys a bit early this year?
    We, and many people we know, are moving away from traditional turkey at Thanksgiving. We will be having a nice spread (at friends) that includes Beef Wellington. They are "foodies" and love to cook fancy meals. We are also invited to a Friendsgiving event, they will be serving turkey.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/condo-prices-are-falling-but-a-bargain-isnt-guaranteed.html
    Condo prices are falling in certain locales because of oversupply. Utterly irrelevant to inflationary pressures that everyone is experiencing, as a result of tariffs mainly. We should be below 2%, but are instead heading back up.
    And this phenomenon has been going on for a while in many markets. If you want a condo, in an overbuilt market, grab one up.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just updated all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop through Friday, 31 October 2025. Monthly flow tools updated through October and the daily FLOW tool updated through Friday.
  • WealthTrack Show

    gardner's wizardry' is basically high correlation to momemtum, which has\having a great run regardless.
    image