I got into cryptolending last fall and closed out my position earning 7% over a month ago when things first getting a bit ... bumpy in cryptoland. The timing was right as I needed the play money to help pay for home rennovations. lol (Some places offered 15, 20, 25% interest, which I avoided like the plague!)
Anyway, one of my biggest concerns that got me to punch out was counterparty risk with firms lending to other firms lending to other firms and levering up along the way. So at the moment, seeing the various crypto exchanges laying people off, restricting withdrawls, reducing interest rates, etc, etc makes me wonder how the risk folks at Genesis Trading are feeling these days since they lend to the institutional whales in cryptoland.....I can't believe they're not having some very sleepless nights right now, b/c if THEY have problems, chaos will ensue.

Quarterly options expiry day has huge volumes. Unless there is some special news on that day, the trend of the week may just be magnified on Friday. So, Monday was BAD (somebody called yesterday the Crypto-Monday and we will see if that sticks), today seems calm (so far, although the crypto crash continues). Tomorrow is the FOMC Statement and Powell's news conference, so unclear how that will go. The CME FedWatch (based on fed fund futures market, not on "expert" opinions/surveys) is indicating these hikes now for the 5 FOMC meeting remaining in 2022: 75 (tomorrow)-75-50-50-25, reaching 3.50-3.75% by mid-December. So, Friday could be wild.

There seems a leak or many guesses in the media about 75-bps hike. Also, this Friday is HUGE options expiry day - triple/quadruple witching.
Good or bad? More spam to hit the fan that day?

relief rally in the morning? Let's see if the Fed goes with .75% or what..... Dead cat bounce, anyhow.

Yay!

https://www.screencast.com/t/pTjo2Q2ZUig
I know relative to inflation not good.
Still, nice to see.

There seems a leak or many guesses in the media about 75-bps hike. Also, this Friday is HUGE options expiry day - triple/quadruple witching.

Double your pleasure … Double your fun …

There seems a leak or many guesses in the media about 75-bps hike. Also, this Friday is HUGE options expiry day - triple/quadruple witching.

I agree with this article. The first one was the best sign of a 'top' in crypto, in my view.
The Clues You Missed: 5 Super-Obvious Signs We Were in a Financial Bubble
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/06/crypto-crash-5-obvious-market-top-signals-everyone-missed.html

@rforno - Sounds logical. I’m thinking a half point rate hike. But language designed to ease the market stresses. Potentially a rebound Wednesday - if only short lived.
It feels more like “investing” now. Things got too damn easy for a few years. :)
Sorry for those in crypto. Afraid a lot of inexperienced people got suckered in by the lure of easy money. And their losses may greatly affect the economy going forward.
Side note: Amazon got slammed. PRWCX now down 15.35% YTD.

#Volatility rose sharply across the board today.
SP500 $VIX 34.02 +22.59%
Nasdaq-100 $VXN 40.36 +18.81%
Bond $MOVE 139.21 +21.87%
Oil $OVX 47.56% +10.81%
But SP500 $SKEW was moderate at 124.14 +2.06%
#Cryptos crashed.
#Markets

That was UGLY!
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p30172872605
Substituting DJ Utilities for DJ Transports. Utilities have been better, but not if one added to them in April.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$UTIL,IWM&id=p05603484015

How many Dem's had their slush money invested in ESG just prior to shutting down the pipe line, shutting down oil leases for land. With Tesla down over 50% for one year hi-low, maybe it's time to dip ?! Well if this was the case , guess they're as happy as the rest of us now !

Thanks. Looks like good bedtime reading. (The short version is fine.none need to link the 15 page White-paper.)

The VIX gets tossed around a lot by media pundits. One noted recently that there won’t be a correction “while the VIX is stuck in the mid 20s”. I suspect that it is widely misunderstood. ISTM it is tied to the prices being paid to purchase protective “puts” farther out on stocks. Lately, fear has been low. So the “return” on those puts on down days isn’t great. But ISTM the cost of such puts must also be relatively cheap?
Barron’s this week quoted the manager of GATEX (which I own). He seemed to be dismayed the fund hasn’t benefitted more from its put options recently. I gather that ties in with what I wrote above?
@yogibearbull - Kindly fill in some blanks. ;)
BTW - As I’ve noted before, I use a 5% allocation to TAIL as a hedging tool. Mediocre results so far this year. Today it jumped over 2% early on, but has pulled back some. Also - My understanding is: The managers run the fund so that big payoffs occur under extreme market sell offs. So, a 1-2% drubbing won’t pay off much. But a 15% 2 day slide would pay off very well?
@LewisBraham recently speculated TAIL is being hampered by the longer dated bonds it uses. I agree that that’s part of the problem to date and appreciated his insight.

Yes. Sorry. Did not mean to implicate the entire market. The NASDAQ is what got hammered. It was the hottest sector. And the internet related stocks inside the NASDAQ is where people had been speculating wildly in the late 90s.
Guess I was thinking more of ARKK. In one recent year it soared over 150%. That’s hot. So if a 60% drop from recent highs looks inviting, … maybe it is a good bet. But maybe it isn’t. Also, I was tempted to throw a bit into Price’s Blue Chip (TRBCX). But noted it also had a very huge run up over a recent 4-5 year period. Gave me pause. Not saying it’s still overvalued - just that even at today’s 35-40% off, it may not be as “cheap” as might first appear. Not qualified to give advice. Just sharing my personal take on where things are.
Today I bought back into DKNG. :) - Bought in at under $12 having unloaded it (small loss) for close to $15 a couple weeks ago. Also added to GLTR which is down hard today - a bet on precious metals …

“There was a drop of 78.4% from the 5132.52 of March 2000. In October 2002, the NASDAQ was trading at 1108.49.”
Remember it well. People were freaking out. Be careful out there.
Source

It was brutal on the tech sector. But the S&P 500 only got to about 15.
Now, think about where the S&P 500 was treading water the last time inflation was this bad?

“There was a drop of 78.4% from the 5132.52 of March 2000. In October 2002, the NASDAQ was trading at 1108.49.”
Remember it well. People were freaking out. Be careful out there.
Source

Fools wade in …
ISTM that sometimes rights guaranteed by the Constitution conflict with each other. “We the people“ and our legislators and courts need to sort that all out - establish priorities. Before the 2nd Amendment, in both actual placement and in time, is language guaranteeing people the right to life. With 18 year old kids, psychologically disturbed or angry individuals, and every Tom, Dick & Harry running around with military grade weapons capable of firing off 50 or 100 rounds in quick order there can be no guarantee of “life.” So those rights - both guaranteed in the Constitution - are in conflict and need to be resolved by “We the people.” Hell, you wouldn’t hire or trust some of these uneducated idiots to take care of your dog while away on vacation or unclog the toilet in your home. Yet, you allow the fools to go out and buy extremely potent armament. Reason needs to prevail. I taught high school for 29 years. My heart bleeds at the thought of those wonderful innocent children having their brains and guts blown away. These were your future doctors, clergymen, scientists, generals, great artists and thinkers of every type - all blown away in an hour’s time. And - they were somebody’s precious kids and grandchildren.
Here’s the Preamble to the U.S. Constitution: “We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”

My only concerns with "bucket" suggestions is that I think they underestimate how long the market can be down. While I do not think American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) is helpful most of the time, they did provide simple guidelines for withdrawals. When the SP500 is within 5% of its all time high, take money out of stocks. When it is not use your cash. This avoids selling in a down market
They think 4 to 5 years cash is enough, but if you go back to 1929 you can see years where the market took 7 to 8 years to recover.
I would keep at least 6 or 8 years of minimal expenses in cash or short term bonds
The worst thing that can happen in retirement is to go into it in the middle of a bear market

Here is this week's episode

Hopefully, the date in the subject line does not discourage folks from visiting this thread.