We all are pretty familiar with the 4% rule which provides a mechanism to adjust one's SWR or "safe withdrawal rate" based on one portfolio value. In a year like this, any percentage withdrawal feels anything but "safe".
For example, if one started the year with a portfolio value of$1M and took a 4% withdrawal for the up coming year, one would have pulled ($1,000,000* .04) or $40,000. If after that withdrawal one's portfolio fell 20%. That $1M portfolio minus $40,000 (withdrawal) minus a 20% market correction, is now $768,000.
This math frightens retirees. It's human nature to see this 24.2% portfolio drop as a permanent loss. This can trigger some of us to "sell low" and other poor timing strategies.
For me, years before pulling from my retirement portfolio, I tried to determine what my yearly withdrawal needs were going to be and decided to separate those 3-5 year needs into lower volatility assets. In a sense, try to insulated these near term withdrawals from near term volatility. I would give up some upside to protect against the downside. So instead of selling equities into down markets, I positioned 3-5 years of withdrawals in assets that were less exposed to equity assets volatility. For me, these lower volatility assets are CASH, ST Bonds (VFSTX), and conservative allocation funds (such as VWINX).

I position 20% of my retirement portfolio in low volatility assets. Collectively the losses in these assets YTD has been close to (-6.5%). with this in mind, I have reduced my 4% SWR by 7%. So instead of my normal 4% SWR of $20,0000, I limit myself to 7% less or $18,600. I am hoping it is a helpful adjustment that my budget can handle.
Any criticisms, comments or strategies welcome.

Has any country ever targeted a set level of inflation and adhered rigidly to it? I’d be interested in examples. Sounds like a dubious proposition. Many external factors enter into the level of inflation - not the least of which are the prices of imported products. Than there’s immigration levels (supply of laborers), foreign currency exchanges, technological innovation, climate (effect on crops), wars, etc. I’m not aware of the U.S. ever having an official inflation target up until the time the Fed began targeting 2% (5-10 years ago) because they were scared silly of deflation developing (negative inflation / falling prices).
I don’t think Paul Volker ever set an “inflation target” either. What he did was jack up overnight lending rates to around 20%. That in conjunction with Regan’s war on PATCO (the opening salvo in a long running war on labor unions / diminishing pay and benefits for union members) threw the country into the worst economic morass since the Great Depression with unemployment remaining near 10% for two years. (Akin to swatting a fly with a ball bat.)
The Regan Recession
Inflation will vary year-to-year and region to region. CHART In 1990 it was running between 5,5 and 6% in the U.S. In Sweden it was 11%. In Japan about 4%.. And 7.5% in Great Britain.

Between interest rates rising, recession, and the loomng regulatory changes/improvements to crypto-land around the world I would be cautious. Stick with the major cryptocoins (and fiat-backed stablecoins), avoid sh-tcoins, algo-backed 'stable'coiins(hah!), and NFTs --- and be aware of counterparty risks if you're playing the yield-generation/staking game .... too many people are only now starting to understand why some places are giving them 10, 15, 20, or 25% yields on their crypto.

+0.14% ytd, in other words, flat. Big losses in January; caught back up to zero after revamping the port primarily to managed futures and cash. Right now 25% alt and allocation, mainly managed futures; 20% hold-to-maturity debt; and 55% cash.

@hank, from my Summary, Part 1 yesterday,
COMMODITIES. That is the sound of falling LUMBER (recently $580 per 1,000/bd-ft; peak $1,711 in 05/2021) from weakening housing demand, rising mortgage rates and lumber mills running at full capacity. New home inventories are now at 9 months vs only 4.7 months a year ago. There is more downside to $300-400. May short futures or ETF WOOD.

Great cartoon. Anybody who shopped for home furnishings and/or wood products during the past couple years had to be struck by the scarcity of supply and exorbitant prices. Seems like everyone decided to add a new deck to their home or replace worn LR furniture at the same time. I really can’t explain it. Here’s an OT post I submitted more than a year ago voicing some of that frustration. It only got worse as the summer progressed. Furniture Shortage?
While I haven’t yet read it, Barron’s this week has an article about plummeting lumber prices. Go figure!

Sometimes it does. As described in a NYTimes article (excerpted below) about Target cutting prices. Or encapsulated more succinctly in this cartoon:

Target, like many retailers that faced skyrocketing demand in the early months of the pandemic, stocked up on goods as snarled supply chains delayed shipments. But consumers are now turning away from goods like furniture, appliances and other products for staying home and shifting to spending more on experiences and going out.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/07/business/target-profit-inflation.html

Yes, CPI, or CPI-U. It seems that I can still edit the OP. Thanks.
BTW, I posted on the upcoming TIPS auction here,
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/150182/#Comment_150182

Thanks for the Stockcharts plots that are helpful to see the differences between VTIP and TIP.
One can buy individual TIPS from their brokerages. New issues are available based on the auction schedule. Here is more information from Fidelity.

You can view a list of available Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) offerings by visiting Fixed income, bonds & CDs. TIPS can't currently be purchased on our mobile app.
TIPS are issued with 5, 10, and 30-year maturities at a specific frequency in auction. On the announcement date, security terms and important dates are posted on Fidelity.com. To view the auction schedule for treasuries, visit US Treasury Bonds and select “Auction Schedule”.
To view available TIPS auction offerings, log in and visit Treasury Inflation-Protected (TIPS) auction offerings.

* think you meant CPI, not CPU, correct?

Can’t complain. Doing better than deserve. Buffett threw me a plum when he bid for Allegheny. I sold the same day for a 25% overnight gain. It only represented about 5% of portfolio - but certainly helped.
I finally aborted a small hold in GLDB. To some extent it was a victim of circumstances being long corporate bonds at precisely the wrong time. And, I hung on to a small slice of DKNG hoping for a buy-out. But, these are not fortuitous times for M&A with rates having spiked so much. Waters have calmed. I jettisoned that position 2 weeks ago for a small loss.
I did a lot of buying last week adding to existing positions - including a regional bank stock (off 35% from peak), an insurer and a major food distributor. Never one to hold cash, it’s minimal at 3-5%. GNMA (ETF) is being used as a replacement for cash also in small quantity. I picked it up after rates hit 3% - so it’s held up well since buying. Where is the stability? Large slices of PRIHX, PRPFX, ABRZX, BAMBX. These too have been dinged, but not as much as the rest. Winners? RIO and GLFOX. Possibly a couple others.

YTD I am down .25%. Portfolio is 35% cash/bonds, 12 individual stocks and 11 MF's. Energy stocks biggest contributor to breaking even at 10% of portfolio.

The captain obvious explanations are not needed for me. I know them. I have heard them. I view them as more lies told by the regulators/politicians.
Between Jan 2010 - May 2022, the price level has increased 35%. Since Jan 2000, a 73% increase in the price level.- That is using the CPI, which severely undercounts real changes in cost of living. - The source of that stat is from bls.gov's CPI price calculator.
A 35% debasement of buying power over 12 years is not "price stability"
These jokers have failed. The institutions have failed -- They have a "mandate" then they construct policies with the predictable result of avoiding the mandate.

OK, so what was the point of your smart drivel?

The captain obvious explanations are not needed for me. I know them. I have heard them. I view them as more lies told by the regulators/politicians.
Between Jan 2010 - May 2022, the price level has increased 35%. Since Jan 2000, a 73% increase in the price level.- That is using the CPI, which severely undercounts real changes in cost of living. - The source of that stat is from bls.gov's CPI price calculator.
A 35% debasement of buying power over 12 years is not "price stability"
These jokers have failed. The institutions have failed -- They have a "mandate" then they construct policies with the predictable result of avoiding the mandate.

Erudite guests, once again.

Mine portfolio -19%
Did slowly dip in past few wks
Hope get good prices since everything cheap
Hoped uptrends bullish soon (maybe in few wks /q4 - hard to say)
Fyi crypto downed over weekend
They speculate Sp500 may finish ~>4350s by month end
Keep trucking

The stock market’s leaking!
You’re right @Derf. Nothing new. Cathie’s down about 57% now …..

Some YTD Numbers:
Dow -13.61%
S&P -18.16%
Russell 2000 -19.82%
NASDAQ -27.52%
PRSIX (40/60) -12.06%
PRWCX -12.53%
TRBCX - 32.77%
What’s up?
Inverse funds
Energy related
Broad based commodities
HSGFX +16.72%

June 9th exclusive:

n a WEALTHTRACK exclusive legendary financial thought leader, Charles Ellis explains why after decades of searching for outstanding money managers he has become a big believer in indexing.

Indexing interview

June 9 Episode

In part 2 of our interview with industry pioneer Steve Liberatore, we explore both ESG fixed income investing, as well as the relatively new area of impact investing where bond proceeds are directed to a specific project or goal and the results are measurable.

Giruox has been a master in using bond & cash positions to counteract his equity risk. His goal is to provide equity-like return while maintain below market risk over a 5 years period.

+1. Yes indeed. Gotta remember to buy some more PRWCX if it falls a couple of bucks further.

I like the portfolio reporting. They clearly show what they're long and short, and what their investment universe is. And right now, you can see how much they adjusted in one month between the end of March (the fact sheet as of date) and the end of April (the fund page portfolio tab).
Note the lack of commodities, could be largely why it's up 6% or so ytd and not the 20%+ of some futures funds that include them.