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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • US Futures – PM

    As of 0912:
    SP -23.25
    YM -164
    Much better than when the overnight session opened...we'll see soon enough.
  • MFO's October issue is live and lively!
    +1 hank I've never considered a SUV because knee problems run in my family and I don't like to step up to get in a vehicle-I also avoid all steps for the same reason. I just bought a 2023 Sonata SES because the SE model was unavailable. But family/mid-side sedans are quickly being phased out and my next vehicle(hopefully) may end up being a SUV !
  • October’s article from Devesh Shah
    Thank you, @Devo for this month’s timely article.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/2023/10/another-such-victory-and-i-am-undone-the-high-cost-of-pyrrhic-victory/
    Also, the interview with David Sherman, fund manager of RiverPark (now CrossingBridge) Strategic Income and RiverPark Short Term High Yield was very informative from a bond manager perspective.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/2023/06/a-dinner-and-walk-with-david-sherman-fund-manager-of-crossing-bridge-funds/
  • Buying Individual 3-Month Treasuries vs. a Short-Term Treasury ETF-- Thoughts?
    Those FR ETFs are doing well this year. Other FR/BL funds are up 8-10% YTD. As short term junk bonds, they do have downside risk during stress period such as March 2020 (COVID-19) and lost in high single digits. BL/FR recovered in the same year as FED cut rate to near zero. For tax-deferred account, these ETFs are good substitute for cash, but keep the eyes open as the market condition deteriorates.
    USFR is another option besides T bills in taxable account, since both are state tax-exempt.
  • T. Rowe and Oak Hill Start Private Credit Fund for Mass-Affluent Market
    We long-term investors all know that what we really need is for a fund company to lock up our money, throw way the key, issue no quarterly or annual reports, and tell us after 10 years or so how we made out. We just don’t recognize when someone has our best interests at heart.
  • within a hair's width of a massive misjudgment: a cautionary tale
    Bridgeway Funds, at least judging from their very straightforward and honest shareholder reports, are not renowned for betting the house on a single issue. However, in 2021, the one stock owned by BRSVX that got the fund its outlandish gain was none other than GameStop. I guess you have to revere the PM who can tame a bucking bronco, but most of us value investors expect our managers the be, well, a little bit staid. What would John Houseman have said?
  • the case for Japanese equities
    My impression has generally been that Japanese companies don't really care much about shareholder value.
    See this recent article:
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/investors-seek-break-through-japan-incs-value-trap-2023-04-20/#:~:text=Japan's stock market has long,care little about shareholder returns.
    Excerpt: "Japan's stock market has long been seen by investors as a 'value trap' where companies focus on market share, hoard cash and care little about shareholder returns."
    That has always been my impression too. Out of curiosity I checked in on my position in EYLD. Cambria's foreign shareholder-yield fund, is 21% Japan. That's its highest country concentration. OTOH, IHDG is only 7.96% Japan.
  • Buying Individual 3-Month Treasuries vs. a Short-Term Treasury ETF-- Thoughts?
    Other strips of short term bond funds got hit this week.
    Ultra short term IG floating rate bond ETFs did nicely. I've been considering using them in lieu of bond funds in tax sheltered accounts for now.
    "All" floating rate ETFs, including bank loan, HY, and IG:
    https://etfdb.com/etfs/bond/floating-rate-bonds-/
    Comparison of five IG floating rate ETFs (from Fidelity website)
    One week return of those five ETFs (data from M*):
    CLOA: +0.06%
    FLOT: +0.13%
    FLRN: +0.13%
    FLTR: +0.07%
    VRIG: +0.12%
    For reference:
    USFR: +0.10% (one week)
    I'm not too inclined to use CLOA, both because it is new (no track record, two orders of magnitude smaller than the category elephants - larger bid/ask spread), and because investing in CLOs, even AAA tranches, doesn't make me comfortable.
    While the BlackRock AAA CLO ETF (the “Fund”) will invest primarily in CLO tranches that are rated AAA, such ratings do not constitute a guarantee of credit quality and may be downgraded. In stressed market conditions, it is possible that even senior CLO debt tranches could experience losses due to actual or perceived defaults, and rating downgrades and forced liquidations of underlying collateral. CLO securities may be less liquid than other types of securities and there is no guarantee that an active secondary market will exist or be maintained
    https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/product-brief/blackrock-clo-aaa-etf-product-brief-stamped.pdf
  • Buying Individual 3-Month Treasuries vs. a Short-Term Treasury ETF-- Thoughts?
    Agree than 3 month T bill is good for yield over 5.3% (1/4 of that for 3 months). So I am buying longer duration T bills, 6 months and 1 year T bills. 6 month is the sweet spot.
    Buying individual T bills and rolling it when they mature takes a bit of work. Fidelity has that feature but Vanguard does not. Short term treasury ETFs (typically 2 yr duration) have more volatility as yields move upward. In term of trading, ETFs are liquid and easy to trade. I have not sold T bills before maturity but I understand they are readily bought and sold in secondary market. So there are plus and minuses on both options, and I use both of them.
    USFR is another safe option as @yogibb noted earlier.
  • MMF gating/redemption fees removed - Oct 2
    I see Edgar/SEC N-MFP2 filings dated 10/6/23 with data on liquidity etc for Fido m-mkt funds, but NO prospectus revisions/supplements.
  • within a hair's width of a massive misjudgment: a cautionary tale
    Several people have commented in other posts about cumulative performance figures being distorted by a recent year's hot performance ("what have you done for me lately"), including Prof. Snowball, me, and others.
    In Prof. Snowball's piece (linked to above, and here), he praises BRUFX by looking at "three metrics across more meaningful stretches: multiple decades, full market cycles and the last two market crashes." BRSVX hasn't been around nearly as long as BRUFX; it started in Oct 2003. With this limitation in mind, here are the data for AVALX, PVFIX, BRSVX. I included IJS (S&P 600 value ETF) as a benchmark in the Portfolio Visualizer link for each period but did not transcribe its figures below.

    Period CAGR Std Dev Sharpe Ratio
    AVALX PVFIX BRSVX AVALX PVFIX BRSVX AVALX PVFIX BRSVX
    15 yr 11.02% 5.54% 9.51% 28.77% 10.78% 22.81% 0.75 0.69 0.72
    Full Cycle 2007-2020
    6.81% 4.59% 5.24% 28.18% 10.20% 21.97% 0.35 0.41 0.30
    Down Cycle 2007-2009
    -5.09% 2.65% -9.59% 36.83% 11.35% 28.03% -0.01 0.11 -0.37
    Looking at these broader picture numbers, it seems not so much that BRSVX benefited from one hot year, but rather that it doesn't do quite so well in down years. Comparing the BRSVX with AVALX not by a calendar year (i.e. 2020), but trough to peak (roughly 3/19/20 - 6/4/21), one sees similar performance though following different paths.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=BRSVX&compare=AVALX&id=p85687049134
    It's in the latter half of 2021, when the market turned and AVALX's greater volatility worked to its detriment that the funds diverged radically.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=BRSVX&compare=AVALX,IJS&id=p37670197904
    PVFIX is certainly a steady performer. But at a cost of way underperforming in good years. From its chart (see the 15 year performance link above), it almost looks like a SCV cousin of RPHYX - ridiculously steady relative to peers. Something I value in a "near cash" fund. But in an equity fund, my personal risk tolerance is a bit higher than that.
    If you like AVALX, did you look into DFFVX? A clone of it is available in variable annuities, e.g. TIAA. So unlike the Fidelity fund that is used only internally by Fidelity, some investors could access this fund (sort of).
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    October 7th Episode:
    With the impressive performance of GMO’s Climate Change Fund, which beats its benchmark and boasts 12% annualized returns, investors gain exposure to companies combatting climate change and adapting to its effects. White shares insights on the fund’s unique approach and discusses his journey in launching it.


    Complete link:
    the-unique-approach-of-lucas-whites-high-performing-gmo-climate-change-fund/
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q3–October 9, 2023)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q3–October 9, 2023)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2023/Q3 and YTD to 9/30/23)
    Pg L2: SMALL-CAPs (SCs) have attractive relative valuations and their time may finally come; SC-value is especially attractive (some energy, financials, regional banks). But recession poses a high danger for SCs; they may be fine with SOFT LANDING. Mentioned are:
    SC-Value AVUV, QRSVX, RYSEX
    SC-Blend DFAS,FDSCX, FOSCX, RPMAX
    SC-Growth FTXNX, NEAGX
    SC-Indexed IWM, IWO, IWN (poor Russell indexes; not selective); SPSM (better S&P index))
    SC-Foreign DRIOX, FISMX, MOWNX
    All-Cap FLPSX (heavy in SC, MC, foreign)
    (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L6: BEST MONEY MARKET Funds (MMFs). M-Mkt funds have attracted huge inflows. They offer high rates, safety and liquidity. MMF ERs matter the most. (The 2014/16 reforms introduced gates/redemption fees and 3 types of MMFs – Government, Prime-Retail, Prime-Institutional). The new 2023 reforms have removed the gates (i.e. the problematic redemption suspensions) but will allow redemption/liquidity fees when there are heavy daily outflows (5%+ of AUM). So, basically, the distinction between the Government and Prime-Retail MMFs will become less significant for large MMFs. (I don’t recall Barron’s doing the Best MMFs before)
    Government MMFs AEAXX, AMAXX, FOBXX, INAXX, PCEXX
    Prime-Retail FMEXX, GMGXX, IPPXX, TSCXX, VMRXX
    Treasury MMFs BITXX, FZFXX, GABXX, PRTXX, UATXX
    Muni MMFs FMOXX, GMHXX, MOTXX, SWTXX, VMSXX
    Fund news from elsewhere in Barron’s (Parts 1 & 2).
    STREETWISE. Hurt by rising rates, REITs are now attractive. Their yields and FFOs are good; they trade at discounts from book values. REITs are better capitalized than private property owners and should benefit from the CRE weakness/consolidation; some bigger REITs may buy smaller REITs. There are growth/”hare” REITs – hotels (HST, RHP), industrial (CDP, FR), drug research facilities, apartments (ARE, CPT, UDR), senior housing (LTC, SBRA); and income/”tortoise” REITs – casinos (GLPI, VICI), nursing centers, ground leases. What about office REITs? Forget them! Headwinds include higher rates, tighter credit conditions, recession. (Real-estate has been a GICS sector since 2016; mREITs have remained with the financials.)
    INCOME. Attractive PREFERREDs include the ETFs EPEI, PFF; the CEFs FFC, JPC; and individual preferreds from C, GS, WFC, etc (both $25 & $1,000). Also look at JUNIOR CORPORATE bonds from ENB and APOS/APO.
    Pg L29: In 2023/Q3 (SP500 -3.27%): Among general equity funds, the best was SC-value -1.79%, and the worst was SC-growth -6.32%; ALL general equity categories were NEGATIVE. Among other equity funds, the best was natural resources +11.99%, and the worst were precious metals -9.32%, utilities -8.83% (strange mix). Among fixed-income funds, domestic long-term FI -0.98%, world income -1.86%; ALL FI categories were NEGATIVE (FI isn’t very refined in Lipper mutual fund categories listed in Barron’s).
    LINK
  • within a hair's width of a massive misjudgment: a cautionary tale
    How does MFO Premium screen for intangibles?
    It appears we live in a time where a company’s valuations is increasingly impacted on criteria that can be difficult to measure.
    Here’s an article on the subject of recognizing the value of a business’ “intangibles”.
    intangibles-now-represent-a-greater-share-of-value-at-companies
  • within a hair's width of a massive misjudgment: a cautionary tale
    Red flags for BRSVX in gross data include Morningstar 5*, Bronze; high SD. Of course, the chart tells all - all the fun was in 2021.
    StockCharts, 3 Yrs https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=BRSVX&compare=IJR,SPSM&id=p45673872103
  • within a hair's width of a massive misjudgment: a cautionary tale
    In the spirit of looking differently:
    Style boxes, and fund names, are becoming less than useful reference points. Anything based on the S&P 400 midcap range shows up in the small cap box. Funds that tread in less popular names from the 500, like SPGP, are more than half midcap. Vanguard value funds, like VSIAX and VMVAX, are half blend, or more. Lipper says RWJ is core, M* says value. FMIMX is a midcap blend, or a smallcap core, despite the 13.68 PE forward.
    If I am looking for small caps, I now include the whole range of mid and small caps in my MFO premium search. Then I look for a Martin ratio => 1, plus alpha greater than zero, expense ratio <= 1, and since COVID for the first pass.
    Adjust the expense ratio if you are on the lookout for expensive boutiques.
    Once the results are in, I add the columns that I associate with "value." These days I am especially interested in their debt rating. There may be more naked swimmers out there yet to be revealed.
    I have this search saved, and I am looking forward to seeing the results after the September data is loaded.
  • within a hair's width of a massive misjudgment: a cautionary tale
    I'm still learning to navigate in a world in which the Morningstar fund screener is ... well, worthless. A once-useful tool has been reduced to being able to answer a single question: "what does Morningstar think about this fund?" Star rating, analyst rating, ESG rating: yes, yes, yes. Comparisons of absolute and risk-adjusted returns over meaningful periods? Go 'way, kid, ya bother me!
    Today's adventure sought to answer the question: what are the most consistently solid small cap value funds around? I used MFO Premium to look at domestic and global funds, checked Sharpe and APR for the past 3-, 5-, 7-, 9- and 11-year periods. I found two disappointments: two Great Owl funds were consistently in or around the top five, but one was only available to Fidelity fund managers (Fido Series Intrinsic Opps) and the other (Kinetic Small Cap Opps) had a 41% stake in a single stock, Texas Land & Power.
    Pinnacle Value and Aegis Value were frequently, but not always, top five funds. They're both rock solid, distinctive, tiny one-man operations.
    The surprise was Bridgeway Small Cap Value, the fund that was in the top five more often that any other. Small- to micro-cap. 130 names. Quant. Five star.
    All of which I was going to share until I scanned its Morningstar profile and noticed that its success was entirely driven by one year: 2021. The fund made north of 67% and left everyone in the dust. That number then elevated all of the trailing comparisons. It otherwise trailed more than two-thirds of its peers in five of the past 11 years. It's trailed its index six times but I have no idea of what to make of it since it's a custom Morningstar index which apparently cannot be entered into their charting tool to generate a detailed comparison ... though I can get the index denominated in Euros, pounds, Canadian dollars...). Overall, 2020-2022 was a solid stretch for the fund. 2013-19 and 2023, not so much.
    All of which I share as a cautionary tale: look carefully, then look again, differently.