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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    I like to sleep well at night. 10 years in bucket #1 is the best sleeping aid.
    My allocation model is so fragmented & complicated that I fall asleep at night just trying to figure it all out.
    Great sleep inducer.
    I’ve been burned more than once on used cars, Usually buy new. Then I know what I’m getting. There’s an old expression that when you buy used you’re “Buying somebody else’s problems.”
  • ETNs in 2023
    @yogibearbull
    I recall 10-20 years back, that some 'stable value' choices found within 401k/403b plans may have contained ETN products; synthetic bonds, so to speak; as I named them.
    --- The bonds in such a fund are sometimes called "wrapped" bonds, referring to the fact that they are insured. The insurance is commonly issued in the form of a so-called synthetic guaranteed investment certificate (GIC). ---
    During the 2008 melt, a friend received a letter stating that 'one shouldn't be concerned about the safety of their underlying 'stable value fund'.
    At the time, even some insurers were not very stable. No back up for the back up, for the back up. The musical chairs problem and who is remains without a chair.
    Wondering today about ETN's stuff inside such funds.
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    +1.
    Yes, about our Cherokee, the loan agent said, in effect, we paid too much. i'm accustomed to getting screwed at dealerships. Just bend over.
  • US Senator Warren criticizes Fed, calls for probe into SVB failure

    Did not watch the Sunday Face The Nation. But the Reuters article is clear. It all stinks to high heaven.
    Anybody want a Senate that's NOT all screwed up? Make it 50 Warrens and 50 Sanders.
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    @sma3. People love to talk about California being expensive but our property tax just went up 1.9% year over year. Wasn’t planning on buying a car ever again but our perfect retirement car recently was totaled in an accident. Shit happens.
    Damn. That sucks. Sorry to hear, and I do hope there were no injuries. Will you let us know?
    Here's a weird one: I loved our old Jeep Patriot. White. Then we had a fire under the hood. The firemen found green boughs in there. THAT'S what ignited. Some damn animal made a NEST in there. I was less happy with the replacement we bought: a Jeep Cherokee. I think it was the first year the company resurrected that brand. With the crazy looking headlights.
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    @sma3. People love to talk about California being expensive but our property tax just went up 1.9% year over year. Wasn’t planning on buying a car ever again but our perfect retirement car recently was totaled in an accident. Shit happens.
  • 401-K: To Rollover Or Not To Rollover
    You're right again MSF. It's a 0.92% annual administrative fee for my 401-K.
    0.92% = 0.0092 x 1000000 = 9200.
    0.04% = 0.0004 x 1000000 = 400.
    Yes, there is a big difference!
  • 401-K: To Rollover Or Not To Rollover
    You're right again MSF. It's a 0.92% annual administrative fee for my 401-K.
    0.92% = 0.0092 x 1000000 = 9200.
    0.04% = 0.0004 x 1000000 = 400.
    Yes, there is a big difference!
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    Particularly now we can get 5% risk free.
    I think using your personal rate of inflation helps to eliminate some of the angst about real vs nominal interest rates.
    If you don't buy a car, and you own your house, health care, taxes and food and energy inflation are the biggest problem that can't be controlled with lifestyle changes for retirees.
    It helps a lot to live in a state (MA) where health care institutions and MDs have a hard time refusing to take Medicare. It is not illegal but there are so many retirees on the Cape no physician or hospital could survive refusing Medicare, except maybe plastic surgeons.
    Of course we pay for it in other ways, ie taxes. 5% state income tax, and our real estate taxes have increased 10% YOY
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    @sma3….. +1. Retired without a pension too. I like to sleep well at night. 10 years in bucket #1 is the best sleeping aid.
  • 401-K: To Rollover Or Not To Rollover
    @bilvihur, you are overlooking main point by @msf that so long as you are working, your 401k won't require RMDs. But as soon as you shift some (half?), the RMDs will kick in within the T-IRA. That may be a bigger tax hit than parts of $900 that you may save.
  • 401-K: To Rollover Or Not To Rollover
    I'd be upset about $9K as well. One of us is off a decimal place. I think it's you :-)
    0.09% x $1,000,000 = 0.9% x $100,000 = 9% x $10,000 = 90% x $1,000 = $900
    If they're really charging $9K, the analysis is a lot different. Let me know.
  • 401-K: To Rollover Or Not To Rollover
    MSF - Thank you for analyzing the ramifications of doing a rollover at this time. The math was too complex for my mind. I was more objecting to Sequoia getting $9K a year for doing essentially nothing that Vanguard wasn't already doing, but it looks like I'd be cutting off my nose to spite my face. The $9K fee is a small price to pay for keeping the 401-K tax sheltered for now! Thanks again!
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    Most people agree that the worst negative impact is to have to sell equities at the bottom because you need the money to live on. So you should not have money in the market that you will need to live on for the foreseeable future.
    The question is always "how long is the foreseeable future". A very long time it turns out.
    I looked at DJA and SP500 worse case losses over last 100 years and how long it took to get back to peak and stay there.
    Pundits usually say five years of expenses is enough to keep you from selling at the bottom, but this ignores the two "double bottoms " ie in the 1930s and 1970s when stocks crashed again and the "lost decade" of the 2000s
    It took 10 years for DJA to get past it's peak in 1973. It took 13 years for SP500 to get past 2000 peak.
    Our good buddy John Hussman believes we could be in for a 60% decline from here.
    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc230319/
    So I try to ensure I have enough cash and bonds ( after accounting for Social Security and dividends etc ) to live on for at least ten years. I am retired without a pension, so what I got is all I am going to get!
  • 401-K: To Rollover Or Not To Rollover
    Introductory question: if it were economically better to roll half the 401(k) into an IRA, wouldn't the benefit be even greater if you rolled the whole 401(k) into an IRA?
    It's pretty clear that if your tax rates (or those of your beneficiaries) are lower in retirement, you're better off keeping the money in your 401(k). That's assuming you would use the same investment, the only difference being an extra 5 basis points in expenses.
    Say you continue employment for another decade. (After retirement, you'd have RMDs in the 401(k) so there would be little reason to keep the money in that higher cost vehicle as opposed to a lower cost IRA).
    So your investment cost for not moving the money would be about 10 x 5 basis point = 1/2%. (This ignores the minuscule compounding effect of 5 basis points.) That is petty in comparison with the reduction in taxes (if any) post-retirement.
    OTOH, even if there is no reduction in taxes, by moving $500K to the IRA, you'd lose the (investment) use of the taxes owed on $20K/year. That is, you lose the tax deferral value of keeping the RMD amount tax-sheltered.
    At 40% (your current tax rate), that's $8K in taxes paid early that you won't have to invest. And you lose the use of an additional $8K each year for however long you still work and could defer RMDs with your 401(k).
    Let's say that you get 5% return on your S&P 500 investment. If you leave the $500K in the 401(k), then each year, for so long as you work, you'll have an additional $8K earning 5% ($400) that you wouldn't have had by using the IRA. That's $400 extra the first year, $800 extra the second year, etc. The cost to you for those earnings is 5 basis points on $500K/year or $250/year.
    Of course you'll owe taxes on those extra earnings once you withdraw them from your retirement plan. So the gain isn't quite this large, but it's still clearly positive. Even if your taxes don't go down in retirement.
    The choice seems obvious. Saving 5 basis points is not worth the loss of use of tax money, let alone potential lower tax rates if distributions are deferred until (actual) retirement.
    It might be worth the additional flexibility, but that's a whole 'nother story.
  • News: UBS to buy CS.
    An interesting thread, Twitter LINK.
    European AT1/CoCo market has sold off and may have been compromised despite supportive statements from the ECB, EBA (European Banking Authority), SRB (Single Resolution Board) that what happened to (Swiss) Credit Suisse AT1/CoCo bonds CANNOT HAPPEN IN THE EU.
  • Clough Global Long/Short Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1638872/000139834423006380/fp0082174-7_497.htm
    497 1 fp0082174-7_497.htm
    CLOUGH FUNDS TRUST
    Supplement dated March 20, 2023
    to the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated
    February 28, 2023
    On March 16, 2023, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the Clough Funds Trust (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Clough Capital Partners L.P. (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Clough Global Long/Short Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Trust, approved a Plan of Liquidation for the Fund (the “Plan”). Effective as of the close of business on March 20, 2023, the Fund will cease selling shares and the Adviser will begin the process of liquidating the Fund’s investments under the terms of the Plan. The Adviser anticipates that the assets of the Fund will be fully liquidated and all outstanding shares redeemed on or about April 24, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    Pursuant to the Plan, the Fund will liquidate its investments and thereafter redeem all of its outstanding shares by distribution of its assets to shareholders in amounts equal to the net asset value of each shareholder’s Fund investment after the Fund has paid or provided for all of its charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities. Although the Fund will be closed to new purchases, you may continue to redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, as provided in the section of the Prospectus entitled “Buying and Redeeming Shares.” The Liquidation date may be changed without notice to shareholders, as the liquidation of the Fund’s assets or winding up of the Fund’s affairs may take longer than expected. Any shareholders who have not redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to the Liquidation Date will have their shares redeemed automatically as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date.
    As a result of the anticipated liquidation of the Fund, the Fund is expected to deviate from its stated investment strategies and policies and will no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Fund will begin liquidating its portfolio and will hold cash and cash equivalents, such as money market funds, until all investments have been converted to cash and all shares have been redeemed. During this period, your investment in the Fund may not experience the gains (or losses) that would be typical if the Fund were still pursuing its investment objective.
    As is the case with any redemption of fund shares, these liquidation proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation under certain conditions. You should consult with your tax adviser for further information regarding the federal, state and/or local income tax consequences of this liquidation that are relevant to your specific situation.
    All expenses incurred in connection with the transactions contemplated by the Plan, other than the brokerage commissions associated with the sale of portfolio securities, will be paid by the Adviser.
    Please retain this supplement with your Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information.
  • ETNs in 2023
    Surprisingly, there hasn’t been much discussion or analysis of ETNs (Exchange Traded Notes) in the aftermath of Credit Suisse disaster.
    The ETNs are DEBT obligations of the ISSUER/sponsor. So, the health of the issuer is critical for the ETN holders. Yet, in all of the discussions of Credit Suisse issues, its ETN exposure wasn’t even mentioned. This even as in the UBS takeover/rescue of Credit Suisse, almost $17 billion of AT1/CoCo debt was extinguished by government order (a credit-event was declared) when that was ahead of the common stock (that finally had some residual value). But because it wasn’t an outright bankruptcy, the Credit Suisse ETNs should be OK for now as the debt obligation of Credit Suisse will become the debt obligations of UBS.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/161485/#Comment_161485
    Another risk of ETNs is that their CREATION/REDEMPTION mechanisms may be disrupted by the issuer, or the ETN may be discontinued/liquidated in what may be very UNTIMELY for the ETN holders. Some ETNs are +/- 2x or even +/- 3x that further magnify risks (they escaped the recent ETF reforms to limit LEVERAGE).
    Credit Suisse US ETNs include those for gold, silver, oil, MLP with AUM of under $500 million (tickers for Credit Suisse related stuff are avoided here as those may change). UBS also has ETNs related to equity and HY bonds with AUM under $200 million. It is unclear if UBS will maintain Credit Suisse ETNs.
    No news is good news?
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/985/thread
  • 401-K: To Rollover Or Not To Rollover
    Thanks for the reply. My 401-K plan does allow rollovers while still employed, but I'm still questioning whether there's any advantage to doing it.