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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 401-K: To Rollover Or Not To Rollover
    Thanks for the reply. My 401-K plan does allow rollovers while still employed, but I'm still questioning whether there's any advantage to doing it.
  • 401-K: To Rollover Or Not To Rollover
    I have a $1M 401-K with a company which invests it in a Vanguard 500 Index Fund (and charges me $9K annually (0.09%) to manage it). I'm still working (and plan to continue), I max out my contribution, my firm makes a modest match, hence no RMD yet.
    I have a $750K Traditional IRA, also in the Vanguard 500 Index Fund, which Vanguard charges 0.04% to manage. I must take a $30K annual RMD. I'm in the Federal 35% tax bracket.
    I calculate that if I rollover half my 401-K into a traditional Vanguard 500 Index Fund IRA, my 401-K fee would be cut in half, but the RMD would increase to $50K. The additional $20K would be reduced to $12K by federal and state taxes.
    I don't need the extra income. I already make use of QCD's for part of the current RMD.
    The way I see it, a rollover would give me greater flexibility, but not much tax advantage.
    Anyone have suggestion?
  • US Senator Warren criticizes Fed, calls for probe into SVB failure
    Thanks for the article. These days it is all about the rating just as Fox News. Talking about journalism malpractice.
    Senators Warren is spot on and she and a number of Democrats voted against passing the 2018 deregulation on part of regulatory ruling of the Dobb-Frank Act. Had that been in place, this banking failure may have been prevent.
    https://vox.com/business-and-finance/2023/3/13/23638655/silicon-valley-bank-trump-fdic-banking-law
  • News: UBS to buy CS.
    From John Authers' Points of Return newsletter today:
    “'Additional Tier 1' capital was a category introduced under the Basel III banking accords that followed the GFC, with the intention of providing banks with more security.
    Holders of the bonds were to be behind other creditors in the event of problems.
    In the first big test of just how far behind they are, we now know that AT1 bondholders
    come behind even shareholders."

    "Credit Suisse’s roughly 16 billion Swiss francs ($17.3 billion) worth of risky notes are now worthless.
    The deal will trigger a complete writedown of these bonds to increase the new bank’s core capital — meaning that these creditors have had a worse deal than shareholders, who at least now have some stock in UBS."

    "This follows the logic of the post-crisis approach, and it limits moral hazard.
    The question is whether anyone will want to hold AT1 bonds after this.
    The market response will be fascinating, and it remains possible that the regulators
    have avoided repeating one mistake only to make a new one."
  • Warren Buffett talking to Biden administration on banking crisis
    Morningstar’s take on Buffet potential help with the regional banks.
    Any Berkshire Action Would Like Be Capital Injection, Not Acquisition
    With all of that in mind, we would expect any action on the part of Berkshire-Buffett in the near term, with regards to the U.S. regional banks, to involve the same kind of capital injection (and Buffett seal of approval). This would be in exchange for high-coupon preferred stock (which is more tax efficient for an insurer) and warrants to buy common stock if anything happens at all. As such, that lifeline will not come cheap for those interested in going that route.
    What we do not expect to see is Berkshire stepping in and buying a bank. The firm has shown no interest in holding more than a 10%-15% stake in a U.S. bank primarily because ownership above that threshold comes with reporting requirements and oversight from the regulators that Berkshire is not all that interested in adhering to.
    https://morningstar.com/articles/1144873/another-banking-crisis-another-call-to-buffett
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    @rforno
    Yup. We recall the all-nighter programs during 2008 for CNBC and Bloomberg.....no info-mercials, eh?
    At one time CNBC aired a variant called “CNBC-West” in the evening. It was excellent and quite humorous at times. I’d gladly pay up to view it, but haven’t been able to track it down. You are correct that Bloomberg has too many infomercials evenings. That’s one sleazy fella pushing off those coins on unsuspecting buyers. No way you can tell the quality / monetary value of an investment grade Morgan from a TV camera shot.
    Bloomberg daytime seems to go for the ratings with a lot of glib conversation. Every 10 points up or down in the Dow merits some explanation. :) Most are good at TV but not particularly well versed in finance. And one would guess a lot of what they say is read from teleprompter and written off-screen by their team of writers. I do find the evening shows more substantive and less showbiz-like. Maybe they feel only die-hard market watchers will tune in during prime evening viewing hours anyway. And, there’s no U.S. markets to grab attention, although the futures, Asian markets and FX are always of interest to me.
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    "constantly beeping/buzzing/blinking with something to give viewers another dopamine hit"
    That’s a reference to Cramer? Right?
    image
  • Warren Buffett talking to Biden administration on banking crisis
    I am sure Powell is aware of something is broken within the banking system due to the unprecedented rate hike’s magnitude and pace. Clearly, something needs to be redone on the stress test that failed to catch these banks. Senator Elizabeth Warren blamed that on 2018 deregulation on part of Dobb-Frank Act and the Fed.
  • NYCB Buys Most of Signature Bank - FDIC
    https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23021.html
    "....The 40 former branches of Signature Bank will operate under New York Community Bancorp's Flagstar Bank, N.A., on Monday, March 20, 2023. The branches will open during their normal business hours. Customers of Signature Bridge Bank, N.A., should continue to use their current branch until they receive notice from the assuming institution that full-service banking is available at branches of Flagstar Bank, N.A.....As of December 31, 2022, the former Signature Bank had total deposits of $88.6 billion and total assets of $110.4 billion. Today's transaction included the purchase of about $38.4 billion of Signature Bridge Bank, N.A.'s assets, including loans of $12.9 billion purchased at a discount of $2.7 billion. Approximately $60 billion in loans will remain in the receivership for later disposition by the FDIC. In addition, the FDIC received equity appreciation rights in New York Community Bancorp, Inc., common stock with a potential value of up to $300 million....."
  • News: UBS to buy CS.
    You may hear about the controversial wipeout of $17 billion CS AT1/CoCo bonds.
    These (AT1) bonds are contingent-convertible (CoCo) bonds common in Europe and Asia. In good times, these convert into equity. But in bad times, forced conversion can be done at loss, or the entire amount could be written down. So, they pay higher-yields. These count as Tier 1 capital.
    What confused the investors in Europe was that AT1/CoCo bonds are ABOVE the common stock in the capital structure. So, how can there be ANY equity left, but ZERO for AT1/CoCo bonds? That is where the Swiss Government stepped in - it said, "because it says so". Oops! There goes an entire bond structure (CoCo) down the tube! This category may be damaged.
    They aren't used in the US. But to count as Tier 1 in the US, a bank convertible in the US must be noncumulative.
    https://www.fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/202303191646RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KBN2VL0GX-OUSBS_1
  • Warren Buffett talking to Biden administration on banking crisis
    All central banks (EU Australian Canadian Japan USA) open up piggies accts again... Just like that the last 16 months of inflation war cries ceasing... Large monies maybe free flowing soon again.... Get ready
    Uncle power likely halt or raise very small perhaps last time to 0.25% on TUES.
    Economy get slaughtered if rates remain above 5.25%for an extended period of time.
  • Could First Republic’s collapse trigger a recession?
    @ dtconroe and @DavidF, please see @bee’s posting on WealthTrack.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/58534/wealthtrack-weekly-investment-show/p8
    Leading Wall Street economist Nancy Lazar discusses the resilience of the U.S. economy, despite several canaries in the coal mine examples of financial strain. Lazar shares her insights on why the economy is holding up better than expected and what we can expect moving forward, including the impact of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow down the recovery.
    Nancy thinks we are entering a recession in the next 12 months, even with conflicting data on strong employment numbers, high wages, decent earning reporting and an inverted curve.
    I too think a 25 bps rate hike is likely this week.
  • Right Now: Treasuries vs CDs
    "I limit the amount of my CDs to $50k to 100k."
    $25 to 50k here. But maturities from 4/23 out to 11/25.
  • Warren Buffett talking to Biden administration on banking crisis
    Twitter has been speculating big news ahead of US futures opening this evening - in about 10 min.
    So, we got BIG news from Europe on UBS taking over CS.
    NO big news in the US except rumors (including Buffett). We only have 2 releases TODAY by the Fed, one stating that US financial system is strong (after the UBS + CS news), another providing more dollar swap lines to other central banks.
    https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230319a.htm
    https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230319a.htm
  • Warren Buffett talking to Biden administration on banking crisis
    Excerpt:
    The conversations come as Buffett has been a savior to the banking sector in the past. The chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) invested $5 billion in Bank of America (BAC) in 2011 as he tried to bolster the bank due to its losses tied to subprime mortgages. In 2008, Buffett came to the aid of Goldman Sachs (GS), investing $5 billion in the bank in the depths of the financial crisis.
    Regional banks may need the help of Buffett after several of the banks' stocks cratered this week, such as Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL), KeyCorp (KEY) Comerica (CMA) and Zions Bancorp (ZION), after the twin failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3948701-warren-buffett-talking-to-biden-administration-on-banking-crisis-report
    The original article is in Bloomberg but it is behind a paywall.
    No detail release yet. In BOA case, WB got their preferred stocks at his asking price and dividend yield. Both were aimed at lowering his investment risk knowing that there is a high probability the government will come to help. FED did shortly. Read somewhere he made many folds over his initial investment with little risk. We will see what Buffet will ask for this time. Despite his age, he is a great investor.
  • Right Now: Treasuries vs CDs
    I continue to buy short term CDs--bought two, 9 mo CDs, at 5.2% each, a few days ago. I limit the amount of my CDs to $50k to 100k. All of my recent CD purchases are either 6 month, or 9 month CDs. I have four other CDs maturing this summer, and I expect to be purchasing additional CDs when those mature. Until I am convinced that the Feds are going to stop raising rates, I prefer the shorter CDs.
  • Happier Days at SVB / File Photo from WSJ
    The 2018 rollback of the part of Dobb-Frank Act on regulatory examination and stress test contributed to this failure. This supposed to US banks more competitive with other banks in the world. Now we realize that is a mistake. Will any of the executives go to jail? Will any of their bonus being claw back?
  • UBS Agrees to Buy Credit Suisse for More Than $3 Billion
    "has agreed"... (as in "an offer that cannot be refused")
    Credit Suisse, the battered Swiss banking giant, has agreed to a takeover by Switzerland’s largest bank, UBS — a move aimed at staving off immediate concerns of a disorderly bankruptcy and stemming panic about global financial turmoil.
    UBS has agreed to buy Credit Suisse in an emergency deal that ties up two of Europe’s largest banks, Swiss authorities announced Sunday.
    Swiss authorities are planning to speed up the process by circumventing laws that would require a shareholder vote, the Financial Times reported earlier Sunday. The Financial Times also reported that the value of the all-share deal was more than $2 billion, but that figure was not officially confirmed by the Swiss authorities.
    A “swift and stabilizing solution was absolutely necessary,” Alain Berset, president of the Swiss Confederation, said in a Sunday afternoon news conference. The UBS deal, he said, was “the best solution for restoring the confidence that has been lacking in financial markets recently.”
    In a joint statement Sunday afternoon, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said that they “welcome” the announcement.
    “The capital and liquidity positions of the U.S. banking system are strong, and the U.S. financial system is resilient,” Yellen and Powell wrote. “We have been in close contact with our international counterparts to support their implementation.”
    Credit Suisse and UBS did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
    The takeover caps more than a week of speculation over the Swiss giant’s fate amid growing fears of a global financial crisis, after two U.S. regional banks suddenly failed earlier this month. Although U.S. regulators have taken sweeping steps, including backstopping deposits at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York, those measures have done little to assuage fears of a cascading banking crisis.
    Those concerns went global this week, after Credit Suisse warned of “material weaknesses” in its financial reporting. On Thursday, the bank received $53.7 billion in emergency funds from Switzerland’s central bank, but it wasn’t enough to restore confidence in the bank’s viability. Shares of Credit Suisse have tumbled more than 20 percent in the past week, and more than 35 percent this year.
    The past week has raised new questions on what it will take to avert another crisis. On Sunday, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) called on Congress to lift the federal insurance cap for bank deposits above $250,000. She also urged lawmakers to repeal a provision of the 2018 law that had loosened restrictions on banks with $50 billion or more in assets, saying the latest tumult in the financial system underscored her belief that the Fed has fallen short on its core duties.
    The above is a complete and unedited transcript of a current article in The Washington Post.
  • UBS Agrees to Buy Credit Suisse for More Than $3 Billion
    Credit Suisse Importance
    "The bank ranks among the world's largest wealth managers and crucially it is one of 30 global systemically important banks, whose failure would cause ripples through the entire financial system."
    "Credit Suisse has a local Swiss bank, wealth management, investment banking and asset management operations. It has just over 50,000 employees and 1.3 trillion Swiss francs in assets under management at the end of 2022, down from 1.6 trillion a year earlier."
    "With more than 150 offices in around 50 countries, Credit Suisse is the private bank for a large number of entrepreneurs, rich and ultra rich individuals and companies."
    Link