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The users have the ability to input a number of variables into the model and it generates the probability of outcomes. That model works well with index funds but not so much with active managed funds. Nevertheless, I came to appreciate asset allocation as the most direct factor on long term return. @lynnbolin 2021 also mentioned Financial Engines in a recent post.
Thank you. That is very insightful to see it on a spreadsheet. These are the next set of questions I was planning to ask Vanguard.@msf said, Dynamic Cash Flow Tax Plan- Roth IRA Conversion (the sample spreadsheet)
So there's a chance the biotech ETF I bought at the end of 2021 might come back to life . . . some day? ROFL.I don't expect much that is good will happen in the Market until we are into 2025.
*"Mark Baum" in The Big Short.
The dollar values for outside investments were incorporated into the portfolio[snip]
As @Sven noted, Vanguard PAS can incorporate outside investments in its planning. It is one of several robo/hybrid advisors that do this (including the top five in M*'s ranking). See thread on Robo Advisor Evaluation.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/61501/robo-advisor-evaluation
From the M* report: "Having access to this [external asset] information can help robo-advisor programs provide more accurate advice on savings, asset allocations, and progress toward investment goals."
Is this the example you were shown?
I just got off the call with this guy [at Wealth Enhancement Group]. I was generally impressed. ( While he was not calling form his yacht, he was calling from second home in Maine!) They have a model which will calculate Roth Conversions and expected taxes with breakeven points ( Example says 2040!). Assumes 5% return in taxable and 7% in Roth
That is certainly in line with the industry:
They will do financial plan free of any fees, but of course want to manage your money. The fee is fairly reasonable at 1% for first 1,000,000 up to 0.7% over 5,000,000, so in line with most firms that do portfolio management only, and a bit higher than many mutual funds.

As @hank observed, Vanguard builds a glidepath. I noted in the Robo advisor thread that per M* this is unusual for low cost (i.e. robo) advisors. Also note that that 20% international is out of 60% stock, i.e. 1/3 of equity is foreign. Vanguard, being enthusiastic about matching market attributes, observes that 40% of the equity market is abroad.
I agree the Vanguard info is pretty comprehensive, but to me it is predictably Vanguard, ie 60/40, 20% International, tax loss harvesting. Not sure that is worth their fees which I think are 0.3% correct ?
Vanguard has defined five risk levels for asset allocation schedules:Those suggested allocations for VG PAS in 60s & 70s (60-40), early-80s (55-45), late-80s & beyond (50-50) are much higher than those for target-date funds (TDFs), including Vanguard TDFs. Of course, the questionnaire for PAS determined the specifics.
Most TDFs have 50-50 in 60s (retirement age) and then flatten out to 20-80/40-60 over several years. TDFs also have issues. But I am just noticing the huge discrepancy between the VG PAS recommendations and TDFs.
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