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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    Agree with @Observant1 that 2008 was MUCH worse! Nevertheless, investors need to stay calm and stick to their plan (asset allocation) and not get influenced by the media/news. The worst is panic and make bad choices.
    I have been deploying my cash this weeks to short-term bond funds, individual stocks, and CDs. As more T bills mature this year they will invest in intermediate-term bonds. If US dollar continues to fall, we will buy European stocks again. Our EM exposure has been reduced substantially in recent years given the heightened geopolitical conflicts.
  • Janus Henderson Small Cap Value Fund reopening to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312523073504/d406143d497.htm
    Janus Investment Fund
    Janus Henderson Small Cap Value Fund
    Supplement dated March 17, 2023
    to Currently Effective Prospectuses
    and Statement of Additional Information
    On March 16, 2023, the Board of Trustees of Janus Investment Fund approved reopening Janus Henderson Small Cap Value Fund (the “Fund”) to new investors, effective on or about April 17, 2023. Class L Shares of the Fund remain closed to new investors.
    As a result, effective on or about April 17, 2023, all references to the Fund being closed to certain new investors are removed from the Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information for Class A Shares, Class C Shares, Class D Shares, Class I Shares, Class N Shares, Class R Shares, Class S Shares, and Class T Shares.
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    Gut observation here, but this week things have not all completely marched in 100% lockstep like they did in '08. There are some pockets of green and/or counter-trending moves happening that kind of makes this more orderly.
    Had the government not intervened last weekend, I think the odds of a systemic risk situation would've been significantly greater. But still ... on the whole, for the moment, things are 'dramatic' but not 'existential' like they were in '08. Back then, I was genuinely concerned about the very fabric of the global financial system. Not feeling anywhere that dreadful right now.
    If you're invested in good stuff, just turn the TV off and don't look at your account for a few days. Or as I told someone yesterday, take some play money (if you have it) and actually BUY or ADD TO something good to engage in some reverse psychology and reassure yourself that things will get better.
    (I've been buying/adding this week myself, as i still put idle cash to work for the long term)
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    Unless there are serious issues in the biggest banks ( ie top 100) I don't think this will rival 2008
    In retrospect it seems that any idiot could have predicted what would happen when you sold mortgages to people with no income. Few of us, I assume, knew that was going on until the headlines. But people who should have known better still went ahead and loaded up on this junk. This was a solvency crisis as the investments were worthless.
    This seems to be much more a liquidity crises, which the Fed can fix. However, it remains to be seen what that will do to inflation, given they have undone 50% of their QT so far. Does a recession become more likely?
  • Asset Protections at Brokerages
    @sma3, SVB Financial was the holding company for the SVB Bank. So, this is the bankruptcy filing the holding company that also had some minor brokerage and asset management businesses.
    SVB Bank was taken over by the Feds/FDIC. The government-run SVB Bank is now among the safest and with the best/unlimited deposit protections.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/17/svb-financial-seeks-bankruptcy-protection.html
  • Asset Protections at Brokerages
    Schwab has an easy-to-understand link on asset protections with the SIPC, additional insurance and the FDIC. Details are similar at other major brokerages, e.g. the Fidelity links.
    There are lots of concerns about asset protections after 3 recent bank failures - Silvergate Bank, SVB Bank (#2 biggest failure in the US history), Signature Bank (#3 biggest failure in the US history). Treasury Secretary Janet YELLEN further muddied the current rescue situation by saying that in future, excess deposits may be protected at systemically-important-banks (SIBs) upon presidential determination, but not at smaller community banks. Ironically, deposits at the 2 failed banks under government operations now seem to have have unlimited deposit insurance.
    Schwab https://www.schwab.com/legal/account-protection
    Fidelity1 https://www.fidelity.com/why-fidelity/safeguarding-your-accounts
    Fidelity2 https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/safeguarding-your-cash
  • Stocks changing index categories today
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/17/big-changes-in-the-sp-500-friday-highlight-power-of-index-providers.html
    Ever wonder why Walmart is classified as a consumer staples stock in the S&P 500, but similar retailers such as Target, Dollar General and Dollar Tree are classified as consumer discretionary stocks? A lot of other people have wondered as well.
    Friday, that will change.
    And . . .
    Ever wonder why Visa, Mastercard and Paypal, which seem like they’re financials, are actually listed as Technology stocks instead?
    Other people have wondered that as well.
    What does it all mean?
    Here’s something else it reflects: the people who decide what goes in these indexes have become very influential. They are not fund managers, they are index providers, but don’t let that fool you: in a world where people buy funds that are tied to indexes, the people who determine what go into those indexes have become very powerful indeed.
    Probably not going to give The Big Short a run for its money.
  • Settlement period & trading question
    Question 1 - If in the illustration below, funds for the purchase of a security were from a sale of another security prior to market close on the same day (Tuesday), can the newly acquired security be sold at market open on the second day (Thursday) without violating the SEC rule? Put in simpler terms, is Thursday at market open in the attached photo the first day the security purchased Tuesday can be sold per the rules? Or is it Friday?
    Question 2 - If one already owned a sizable number of shares of the newly acquired security (bought with settled funds) and only acquired one additional share with unsettled money on Tuesday, does the ban on selling apply to all previously owned shares of the security or only to the most recently purchased one?
    Thanks for any answers / insights.
    image
  • Global "Stalwarts"
    He was almost a superhero at Matthews. I found performance to be mediocre. SFGIX. 10 years, as of tonight: +3.47%. Ya, it just was not worth it to keep my money in there.
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    Appreciate the input, all. I am indeed riding it out. Somehow, I wasn't so affected by the Crash of '08-'09. Back then, I was stashing money in my 403b, into EM bonds. They did well in the aftermath. No more EM, now. @LewisBraham: 68, retired, wife works full-time. I'm just laying back in the tall cotton. 5 cash, 58 stocks, 33 bonds. Adding every month to PRTXX: Treasuries and repurchase agreements. A MM fund with TRP. (Sweep account.) Instant access, 4.31% yield, currently. Better than always running over to the Windward side, where our Credit Unions are. I do that often enough, already.
    Surely, Jamie Dimon and the others that went to the aid of First Republic will want something in return. I believe we will see consolidations. CS is still in the toilet. No confidence in that bank's survival. Unless it becomes a zombie-front for the Swiss National Bank, which promised to prop it up.
    And the Fed's discount window has already dispensed a record amount in a very short time. Are banks just looking for cheap loans at 3%???
    Happy St. Patrick's Day. I'll join the local alumni chapter watching a double-header: Gonzaga men and women, both on tv. GU women vs. Ole Miss. Men vs. Grand Canyon Univ. No corned beef. Tacos, instead. Futures up, slightly.
  • Global "Stalwarts"
    Most funds unless they have a flexible go-anywhere investment objective are evaluated based on performance relative to their fund category peers. If a manager runs a tech sector fund and tech stocks are down 20% in the past year but the fund is only down 10%, that’s considered a success, even though fund shareholders may be unhappy. Given the narrow range of the strategy, outperforming on the downside when there’s a limited amount of tech stocks to choose from is impressive.
  • Global "Stalwarts"
    I dunno, trailing five-year returns of about 1% per year are objectively awful, let alone sub-optimal. You can't eat relative performance. I wouldn't think the fund is "designed" to achieve such returns. Pretty darn sure that's not what management envisaged.
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    @Crash - Thought I’d mention that what rocked markets today was the announcement that J.P. Morgan had put together a “rescue package” (loan) for First Republic funded by a number of banks. I was surprised they didn’t wait and release the information until after market. But the news broke about an hour before close and helped propel stocks higher into the end.
    From CNBC: “Stocks rose Thursday as Wall Street grew increasingly optimistic after a group of banks said it would aid First Republic Bank amid the industry's crisis.” CNBC Link
  • Global "Stalwarts"
    @Crash I'm not sure what more you could expect from Seafarer. The fund's beaten 91% of its emerging market fund peers in the past five years and 88% in the past ten with less volatility and downside risk. That's a strong record. It sounds like you have more of a problem with emerging market funds as a fund category than you have with Seafarer specifically. You can't expect Seafarer to behave like the S&P 500 or Treasury bonds if it isn't designed to do that.
  • Volkswagen Shows €25,000 EV to Compete Where Tesla Has Left an Opening
    Toyota is sticking with hybrids first, the EVs second. Some say it's foolish, others say that it works for Toyota.
    Europeans are making good progress in the EVs; China too and it may be ahead in batteries. In the US, Tesla dominates.

    If the "Fit for 55" CO2 emission targets are formally adopted, new cars sold in the EU
    will need to reduce CO2 emissions by 55% (compared to 2021 levels) by 2030.
    The 2035 "Fit for 55" CO2 emission reduction target for new cars and vans is 100% (zero-emission).
    European auto manufacturers have a lot at stake...
    Link
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    I’m confident @Crash can handle it. :) - But some sage advice.
    What makes sense to me about the heightened volatility comes from Bloomberg media reports this evening: (1) There is a liquidity shortage, (2) As a consequence some hedge funds have had to limit or halt redemptions, (3) The ability to make large transactions is now concentrated in a limited number of hands - far fewer than in normal times. (While Bloomberg identified only one hedge fund that has halted redemptions, they seemed confident others have also halted or restricted them.)
    I generally try not to allow macroeconomics to influence my investment decisions. But I think it would behoove everyone to pay attention to what’s going on in banking and to the words and actions of government officials here and abroad - in particular the central banks.
    Banks Borrow $164.8 Billion from Fed in Rush to Backstop Liquidity
    ”All told, the emergency loans reversed around half of the balance-sheet shrinkage that the Fed has achieved since it began so-called quantitative tightening — allowing its portfolio of assets to run down — in June last year. And the central bank’s reserve balances jumped by some $440 billion in a week — which ‘basically reversed all the Fed’s QT efforts,’ according to Capital Economics.”
    Bair on PBS Frontline - Sheila Bair served as the chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 2006 to 2011.
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    Well, since we don't know Crash's age and financial situation today as compared to the 2008 crash, we don't know if he can handle it. That was--hard to believe--15 years ago. It's a mistake to assume everyone should keep a stiff upper lip, keep calm and carry on during a difficult period. Circumstances and risk tolerances differ.
    This is why, I should add, financial planners exist. A good one can assess your financial situation and risk tolerance and tell you, look your goals are X and you have this much cushion for losses, so you can afford to wait out this volatile market. Or, they can say, you're way overexposed to stocks, given your age and situation. You should dial back your exposure. I presume most people here are self-directed, though.