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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    Well, again, it depends on someone's age, goals, and risk.
    I know the following several investors
    1) 90+% in Munis: This guy sold his company in the 90s for several million and since then he is in 90+% muni, the rest in stocks.
    2) 90+% in CD: This guy has "only" one million
    3) 85% in stocks: This guy has over 10 million and has been invested like this for decades and is now at retirement.
    4) This guy shorted the market, but only at 2-3%.
    5) This couple in their 80s invested it all in stocks since retirement in their early 60s. Why? because their pension + SS is over $25K per month.
    6) Several investors in their 30s are all at high% in stocks
    As you can see numbers 3,5 and 6 are invested highly in stocks but are different. Each of the above has a unique case.
    Without the right context(age, goals, and risk), you can't learn much in depth. Even that isn't enough. Suppose someone says, I like treasuries right now. Well, what % do you own? is it 5% or 20%? The % you committed to anything you posted you own makes a difference.
    $100K out of 10 mill is only 1%. I doubt this investor would make any significant change to her portfolio. A $100K to someone without saving matters a lot more than the 10 mill.
    Lastly, when I read dtconroe's post I got the context pretty well.
    Doesn't really matter at all how it affects anything. It is HOW YOU WOULD invest it. If I had $10m I would go buy something nice.
    C'mon FD....you never once said how YOU would invest it.
  • Lithium Mining - Prospectors in a US Caldera strike "Lith"... (Gold)!
    First, If you burn stuff to make solar cells, it takes a year or so of their operation to zero out the CO2 impact of the manufacturing. After that, it's all benefit, in terms of limiting GHGs, which is the point. I looked into that aspect before installing a home PV system in 2015.
    Second, Racq, does your point about recycling metals accomplishing little in energy conservation take into account the energy it takes to mine new metals? I've seen analyses that conclude recycling is beneficial if you include the alternative costs of mining new metals.
  • In memoriam - Keith Long, co-founder and a principal of Otter Creek Advisors, LLC
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811030/000089418923006946/ottercreek497e2023.htm
    Otter Creek Long/Short Opportunity Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Institutional Class – Ticker: OTTRX
    Investor Class – Ticker: OTCRX
    Supplement dated September 11, 2023 to the Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”), each dated February 28, 2023
    Otter Creek Advisors, LLC, (the “Advisor), the investment advisor to the Fund, regrets to inform the Fund’s shareholders that Keith Long, co-founder and a principal of the Advisor and a portfolio manager of the Fund, died on August 21, 2023. As of his passing, Mr. Long ceased being a principal of the Advisor and a portfolio manager of the Fund. All references to Keith Long in the Prospectus and SAI are hereby removed.
    * * * * *
    Please retain this supplement for your reference.
    Obituary:
    https://www.palmbeachpost.com/obituaries/pwpb0562250
  • Lithium Mining - Prospectors in a US Caldera strike "Lith"... (Gold)!
    Exploring for Lithium seems like our modern day "gold rush".
    LAC = Lithium Americas Corp and trade on the NYSE. GM (General Motors) owns 10% and is its largest holder of stock.
    FifthDelta Ltd (a Hedge Fund?) is LAC next largest stockholder. Interestingly, FifthDelta is the largest stock holder of Blackberry. Here's some of their other holdings.
    https://whalewisdom.com/filer/fifthdelta-ltd
    Lithium News
    Yahoo Finance News:
    colossal-cache-lithium-found-us
    McDermitt Caldera (Nevada/Oregon Border) was formed after a massive magma eruption approximately 16.4 million years ago, dredging up untold scores of lithium and other metals. A lake eventually inhabited the caldera, which deposited a layer of sediment spliced with the lithium that today is over 600 feet deep. The result: a clay called smectite.
    But that was just the first lithium injection. Eventually, as volcanic activity heated up again, hot brine containing additional lithium was driven up into the existing smectite, infusing it with even more of it. Now, the clay was no longer just smectite, but a uniquely lithium-rich illite.
    "They seem to have hit the sweet spot where the clays are preserved close to the surface, so they won't have to extract as much rock, yet it hasn't been weathered away yet," Borst told Chemistry World.
    This is good news for miners. Not only is this particular illite more rich in the metal, it's supposedly easier to separate. Plus, the deposits are mostly concentrated in one spot at the southern tip of the pass, limiting the area impacted by mining.
    At least in theory. The extraction of lithium can, depending on the methods used, emit vast amounts of CO2, contaminate groundwater with dangerous heavy metals, and guzzle tons of fossil fuels. Its environmental toll shouldn't be overlooked in the rush to green transportation infrastructure.
    From Science Advances (In depth Article):
    https://science.org
    This back-of-the-envelope estimation is calculated using caldera-wide extrapolation of publicly available drill hole data from Lithium Americas Corp. and Jindalee Resources Ltd. and is not a reporting code-compliant mineral resource estimate that considers economic viability. Even if this estimation is high due to variations in sediment thickness and/or Li grade, the Li inventory contained in McDermitt caldera sediments would still be on par with, if not considerably larger than, the 10.2 MT of Li inventory estimated to be contained in brines beneath the Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia (12), previously considered the largest Li deposit on Earth.
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    I place little confidence in market predictions. However, if someone is always bearish, their predictions serve no value at all. Likewise, if they’re always bearish, how can someone claim that they correctly predicted the bear markets of 2000, 1988, 2022, etc?
  • DARPA Investment Strategy
    The areas of Engineering, Science and Technology are long term themes in my investment portfolio.
    Research is the cornerstone to the development of innovation in these fields.
    I came across this link (see below) to the “investment strategy” of a US agency (DARPA) that has been partially responsible for:
    Originally known as the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA), the agency was created on February 7, 1958, by President Dwight D. Eisenhower in response to the Soviet launching of Sputnik 1 in 1957. By collaborating with academia, industry, and government partners, DARPA formulates and executes research and development projects to expand the frontiers of technology and science, often beyond immediate U.S. military requirements.
    The Economist has called DARPA the agency "that shaped the modern world," and said that "Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine sits alongside weather satellites, GPS, drones, stealth technology, voice interfaces, the personal computer and the internet on the list of innovations for which DARPA can claim at least partial credit."
    What STEM innovations will be next?
    https://darpa.mil/our-research
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Sept 9 Episode:
    Is the 60/40 Portfolio Is Obsolete?
    The traditional 60/40 portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds has been a staple of investment advice for decades. But in 2022, it failed to deliver the goods, declining about 16%.
    Mark Cortazzo says that the rapid rise in interest rates has caused a “massive change” in fixed-income returns. This means that traditional safe assets are back, and it’s time to reset portfolios.
    Cortazzo discusses the massive reset in returns and what it means for investors. He also provides tips on how to realign your portfolio for the new environment.


  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    I trade only bond funds because of their persistency of trend combined with their lack of volatility. There are exceptions, but since 2000 there has always been a bond category that has beaten the S@P annually. Of course those exceptions are pretty glaring ala 2013, 2017, 2019, 2021, and so far this year. So with an extra $100,000 would just add it to the bond category that is far ahead of the bond pack this year. That would be bank loans/floating rate which I have mentioned previously, Some are already ahead double digits YTD. Aside of March they have been as steady a trender as you could want. They are massively overbought, ripe for a correction, and with fears of rising defaults. But, ( and I have to continually remind myself of this) overbought in Bondland can stay overbought for long periods of time. Then again, this wouldn’t be an investment just a trade. Investment is a foreign term to me. I think the only time I was ever in a position since the 1990s for more than four to six months was in IOFIX in 2020/2021.
    Junkster, you are the most prominent trader on these forums. I find it very interesting to see what you are trading, but I know I don't have the skill set to "successfully" trade and risk my lifetime retirement accumulations, trying to emulate your investing approach.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    Yes, one must have a plan. A "Big Picture" view of what you're after. How long will you stay in the Market, for stocks or bonds or other stuff? How would I "invest" $100k? I've answered this question above, already. Right now? I'd stick with my plan and deploy the money in ways that don't destroy my original intent and goals. Current market conditions should be kept in mind, of course. And what do you expect to happen next year, too?...
    I'm 34% in bonds, a lot of it in junk. I'm not up double digits with it in '23, but close:
    Fund A = +9.11% ytd.
    Fund B = +7.44%. ytd.
    Why have I been adding to my chosen regional bank these days, in such a stinky environment? Because this environment lets me buy shares at a better price than before. The investment pays me dividends while I wait for the sky to turn blue. As mentioned before, I have heirs in mind, not just myself.
    I do not think rates will come down at all in 2024. I hear experts telling me that next year's falling rates are already baked into today's market. What I'm expecting is high rates and cloudy skies for another year. But there's still money to be made. Glad right now that I hold that oil/gas midstream company. (Limited Partnership.)
    I do not own Niterra YET. NGKSY. It looks right now to be very much overbought. It's sitting at a ytd high share price tonight.
    Edit to add: OMG. NGKSY "trades" on a "Grey Market." No, thank you. (Per TRP.)
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    I trade only bond funds because of their persistency of trend combined with their lack of volatility. There are exceptions, but since 2000 there has always been a bond category that has beaten the S@P annually. Of course those exceptions are pretty glaring ala 2013, 2017, 2019, 2021, and so far this year. So with an extra $100,000 would just add it to the bond category that is far ahead of the bond pack this year. That would be bank loans/floating rate which I have mentioned previously, Some are already ahead double digits YTD. Aside of March they have been as steady a trender as you could want. They are massively overbought, ripe for a correction, and with fears of rising defaults. But, ( and I have to continually remind myself of this) overbought in Bondland can stay overbought for long periods of time. Then again, this wouldn’t be an investment just a trade. Investment is a foreign term to me. I think the only time I was ever in a position since the 1990s for more than four to six months was in IOFIX in 2020/2021.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    Well, again, it depends on someone's age, goals, and risk.
    I know the following several investors
    1) 90+% in Munis: This guy sold his company in the 90s for several million and since then he is in 90+% muni, the rest in stocks.
    2) 90+% in CD: This guy has "only" one million
    3) 85% in stocks: This guy has over 10 million and has been invested like this for decades and is now at retirement.
    4) This guy shorted the market, but only at 2-3%.
    5) This couple in their 80s invested it all in stocks since retirement in their early 60s. Why? because their pension + SS is over $25K per month.
    6) Several investors in their 30s are all at high% in stocks
    As you can see numbers 3,5 and 6 are invested highly in stocks but are different. Each of the above has a unique case.
    Without the right context(age, goals, and risk), you can't learn much in depth. Even that isn't enough. Suppose someone says, I like treasuries right now. Well, what % do you own? is it 5% or 20%? The % you committed to anything you posted you own makes a difference.
    $100K out of 10 mill is only 1%. I doubt this investor would make any significant change to her portfolio. A $100K to someone without saving matters a lot more than the 10 mill.
    Lastly, when I read dtconroe's post I got the context pretty well.
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    @Hank. Big +1 for your comments on the Morgan Housel book. Lots of common sense and well worth the time.
    I agree. The Psychology of Money is a good book!
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    Grantham has been wrong for over 10 years, but, as usual, scary stories sell a lot more.
    Who is going to read an interview with someone who says: I don't know what stocks will do in the next 3-6-12 months because nobody does, and BTW, the SP500 was up over 80% since 1980?
    Sure, if someone has been a bear on US stocks since 2010, he will be right sometimes but he missed an unbelievable performance.
    Since I have a special place for Grantham, I kept several of his past great calls.
    ==============
    2010 (link)
    "Over the next seven years, GMO forecasts large-cap U.S. stocks to deliver a real return (after inflation) of 1.3% annually, while small-caps provide a 0.5% return."
    "International stocks also fare reasonably well in GMO's model, up about 4.7%, while emerging markets come in with a 3.9% annualized gain."
    FD: reality(link): SPY made 14.4%...IWM 11.9%...EEM 3%. One of the worse misses in the history of predictions.
    =====================
    10/2012 (link) Jeremy Grantham Warns 2013 Will Be A Dangerous Year For Stocks:
    FD: The SP500 made over 32%
    =================
    2015 (link) GMO's Jeremy Grantham has a relatively gloomy outlook for the markets and economy.
    FD: Wrong again and again and again. Why does anybody ask his opinion?
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    @Hank. Big +1 for your comments on the Morgan Housel book. Lots of common sense and well worth the time.
  • M* is doing click-bait crap, now.
    Hulu just “enhanced” my subscription with a $10-$12 monthly rate hike. Hemmingway commented once how in war “… words cease to have meaning.” :)
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    +1
    Thanks. All good.
    Yes - it was clear you were referring only to your cash position in the August comments. A bit unfair of me to single out one line.
    I won’t “lock-in” on any so-called prophet. But like to listen to a wide variety. ISTM Grantham received an outsized amount of attention on this board during the final months of 2021. And to that extent, he helped me, and perhaps others, side-step some of the carnage of ‘22. As he hasn’t been mentioned much recently, I decided to post the interview. Grantham was correct on Japan in late ‘21. Felt they were a good bet. I haven’t followed it lately, but it was a very hot market the first half of this year - perhaps the best of any developed economy.
    I have pummeled .John Hussman with criticism over the years. And might react to a post featuring him the same way you did to the Grantham post.
    The bottom line here is: I think David Rubenstein is one of the better on-air interviewers today. (Others are free to disagree.) So I’d listen to any interview of his with someone of prominence - be it Grantham, Hussman, Biden or Trump. In other words, it wouldn’t matter whether I strongly agreed or disagreed with the subject of the interview - because I think Rubenstein is that good.
    Regards
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    @Gary1952- I think that there's a good chance that you're right on that.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    I think I may change my answer on how to invest $100k. I would be tempted to buy some LT bonds because I think they will be good next year.