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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • New formula for evaluating funds? The PEP Ratio.
    BTW, MFO isn't user-friendly for tabular materials; often, the URLs have to be reposted/redone; as noted above, colors aren't supported
    To preserve spacing, for tabular materials or other text, you can tell the browser that the material is preformatted so that it doesn't try to reformat (generally compress all whitespace to a single blank). Put <PRE> before the text and </PRE> after it.
    For example, here's CNBC's table of MFJ tax brackets for 2023:
    $22,000 or less	10% of the taxable income
    $22,001 to $89,450 $2,200 plus 12% of amount over $22,000
    $89,451 to $190,750 $10,294 plus 22% of amount over $89,450
    $190,751 to $364,200 $32,580 plus 24% of amount over $190,750
    $364,201 to $462,500 $74,208 plus 32% of amount over $364,200
    $462,501 to $693,750 $105,664 plus 35% of amount over $462,500
    $693,751 or more $186,601.50 plus 37% of amount over $693,750
    This isn't perfect (see first line) because preserving tabs is sometimes not enough to completely reproduce the spacing. Adding a second tab in the first line fixes that.
    $22,000 or less		10% of the taxable income
    URLs are problematic when they include embedded whitespace. For example, http://www.example.com/my beautiful page
    doesn't work because it looks like the URL ends with "my". This is fixed by using the link icon and inserting the URL in the dialog box. No redoing of the URL (i.e. replacing the blanks with '%20's) is needed.
    http://www.example.com/my beautiful page
    Color is certainly supported by MFO, but it has to be handled manually.
    @Old_Joe provided an excellent example of how to do colors and tables with HTML tags for colors (as I did, above) and explicit blanks (&nbsp;) for precise spacing. Here's his post: https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/167577/#Comment_167577
    To see how he worked this magic, see here:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/post/quote/61469/Comment_167577
    Based on his encoding of blue as 0x0000FF rather than "blue" (which is what I used), I would guess that he used a tool to process the table he was transcribing.
    MFO certainly isn't user-friendly when it comes to these sorts of formatting, but posting with things like color are not impossible.
  • New formula for evaluating funds? The PEP Ratio.
    I have been tempted to invest in areas or funds based on valuation analyses, usually to my detriment. EM is the most obvious example. One factor mentioned above is that information is now available to all the market players, as opposed to just the analysts or fund managers. I would add the reduction in the number of stocks available for investment as another factor that has diminished the chances of finding “undervalued” stocks. I am just as impatient as the next guy, and the two of us look at “value” funds and say, “What have you done for me lately?” I believe the next guy and I have too much information at our finger tips, as well as having the ability to sell on a whim. @FD1000 is right about valuation metrics showing a marked inability to predict the direction of the market. Stocks the “should” go up or go down have a marked propensity for acting like teenagers.
  • New formula for evaluating funds? The PEP Ratio.
    @FD1000- if you don't mind a suggestion, a good alternative to all CAPS is simply to use the "Bold" or "Italic" formatting options. Just select the word that you want to emphasize, and use the "B" or the "I", or even both. Like so:
    Valuation    Italic
    Valuation    Bold
    Valuation    Bold & Italic
  • New formula for evaluating funds? The PEP Ratio.
    The problem with VALUATION
    When people start shouting, I stop reading.

    Dinky linky
    .
    Professor Paul Luna, director of the department of typography and graphic communication at the UK’s University of Reading, told me we’ve been using caps to convey “grandeur,” “pomposity,” or “aesthetic seriousness” for thousands of years—at least since Roman emperors had monuments inscribed, in all caps, with their own heroic accomplishments. . . .
    “All-capitals provide visibility—maximum size within a given area,” said Luna. And that works online, too. “All-caps in an email looks like shouting because when someone is shouting, you’re aware of the shout, and not the nuance,” Luna told me over email. “ALL-CAPS FILL THE SPACE, so there’s an element of feeling that the message is crowding out everything else.”
  • Municipal Bond Outlook

             2023 tax brackets: married, filing jointly
    Tax rate     Taxable income bracket        Taxes owed

        10%                   $0 to $22,000             10% of taxable income.
        12%               $22,001 to $89,450         $2,200 plus 12% of the amount over $22,000
        22%              $89,451 to $190,750        $10,294 plus 22% of the amount over $89,450
        24%             $190,751 to $364,200        $32,580 plus 24% of the amount over $190,750
        32%             $364,201 to $462,500        $74,208 plus 32% of the amount over $364,200
        35%             $462,501 to $693,750        $105,664 plus 35% of the amount over $462,500
        37%                 $693,751 or more           $186,601.50 plus 37% of the amount over $693,750
    Link to Information Source
  • New formula for evaluating funds? The PEP Ratio.
    The problem with VALUATION is the fact that:
    1) It can't predict the next 3-6-12 months
    2) It can't predict market correction and which index/category will go down more.
    3) Once upon a time PE10(CAPE) looked like a decent indicator until it failed miserably.
    Prof Shiller created PE10 which is supposed to predict performance based on valuation better than PE
    On 05/2012 (https://money.cnn.com/2012/04/10/pf/investing-Shiller.moneymag/index.htm)
    Question: You have become famous for your cyclically adjusted 10-year price/earnings ratio. What do the latest numbers say about future stock market returns?
    Shiller: we found a correlation between that ratio and the next 10 years' return.
    If you plug in today's P/E of about 22, it would be predicting something like an annualized 4% return after inflation.
    FD: In reality, the SP500 made 13.6% in the next 10 years (04/31/2012-04/31/2022). Let's deduct the inflation and make it 11%. It is much better than countries with lower PE10 such as Emerging markets.
    4) If valuation or another indicator has been how you make more money, we would have a lot more investors such as Buffett and Lynch. Times have changed too...article quote:"It’s harder to find overlooked stocks than it was in Lynch’s day because more people are looking for them — anyone with a smartphone has free access to extensive markets and financial information. The result of greater competition is evident in the numbers: Fast-growing or highly profitable companies are almost always the most expensive while the cheapest ones come with lackluster growth or thin profits."
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Rolled a couple treasuries that matured over the last couple weeks into a 1year JP Morgan CD at 5.65%. Yes, it's callable, but that doesn't matter to me.
    Also, I decided to buy more PRWCX in my 401k account. I've been holding too much MM cash all year, in my opinion. I took some time to look around for a different balanced fund to compliment PRWCX but then decided, why?
  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    Lots to comment on here.
    - RMDs now begin at age 73, giving an extra "golden year".
    - Several states give capped exclusions for retirement income including conversions; this is a consideration in deciding whether to exhaust the Trad IRA (via conversions) or spread out conversions & withdrawals past age 73 to benefit from lower (state) taxes.
    https://rpea.org/resources/retirement-information/pension-tax-by-state/
    (See, e.g. Arkansas and Colorado; there are others.)
    - Couples are often (usually?) not the same age. So a couple may be assessed a single IRMAA surcharge (if only one person is on Medicare) while still getting the benefit of broader (couple) tax brackets. This effectively halves the impact of IRMAA.
    For example, in the first IRMAA bracket, a couple (same age) would pay $1874 more, while being able to increase income by $52K before crossing into the next bracket. That's an effective surcharge rate of 1874/52,000 = 3.6%.
    Similarly, a single would pay half as much IRMAA, while being able to add only half as much income before reaching the next IRMAA level, so the single would also have an effective surcharge rate of 3.6%. But a couple with one IRMAA would pay just $1874 more while being able to add $52K of income, for an effective surcharge rate half as much, "just" 1.8%.
    - RMDs aren't necessarily subject to tax. They can be used for QCDs. If the T-IRA balance is low enough that RMD does not exceed cash needs plus intended charitable contributions, there is less value in converting more (especially if the additional amount pushes income into a higher tax bracket).
    - Cash flow is a limiting factor, though the broader constraint is the amount of cash available, regardless of whether it comes from income or taxable account assets. The object of the game, so to speak, is to move everything into tax-sheltered accounts.
    Once taxable assets are consumed, there is less value in doing further conversions.
    Optimizing a Roth Conversion probably means converting as much as possible because the IRMAA decreases above $750,000 and the federal tax rates increase by small increments above $340,100
    It is true that taking a big IRMAA hit one year is better than taking smaller IRMAA hits in multiple years, all else being equal. The problem is that converting more in higher brackets can subject that conversion income to taxes (aside from IRMAA) that are much higher than they would be if spread out over multiple years.
    It may be better to convert a little bit each year even before the "golden years", and then increase the conversion amounts as income drops in retirement. This is especially true if one is comparing small conversions at one's working year tax rate with a one-time conversion getting taxed at an even higher rate.
    IOW, it can be rather painful to take a one-time hit in a 32%-37% bracket, especially compared with paying taxes at 22%-24% for several years of conversions (whether while working or in retirement).
  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    I believe your numbers for tax thresholds are off. According to my sources, the upper limit for the 12% bracket is $89,450 and 22% bracket is $190,750. Other brackets also off. Perhaps these numbers were from a previous year.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Discover the state of the municipal bond market post-2022 interest rate surge! Munis had their worst year since 1981, with a -8.5% return. Yields doubled from 1.03% to 2.63%, causing record outflows of $122 billion. Join us with muni bond expert Robert DiMella, Co-Head of MacKay Municipal Managers, as he shares insights on market recovery and tax-free opportunities. What are the opportunities and risks in the tax-free market now?
    Two tax managed funds that remain in my bullpen (funds I follow) are:
    VTMFX
    USBLX
    Both funds offer (50/50 allocation) to stocks and bonds by managing taxes with a healthy allocation to muni bonds.

  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    The time between retirement and taking Required Minimum Distributions (Age 72) is often called the "Golden Years" because income for retirees is lower than in the future. Deferring Social Security increases this effect. Federal Taxes cuts in 2017 are set to expire in 2026 which means taxes are likely to be a little higher in the future increasing the benefit of a Roth Conversion.
    Below are the Income Adjustments (2023) based on the Modified Adjusted Income including tax exempt income for Medicare known as IRMAA. Couple is calculated on an annual basis. Note that if one's MAGI crosses the $194,000 threshold, IRMAA for a couple goes up by $1,874 for a couple for that year. Crossing the $306,000 and $366,000 thresholds increases a couple's IRMAA by $5,669 for the year.
    Part B Part D
    Individual Individual Couple Incremental
    0 $164.90 $ 0.00 $ 3,958
    194,000 $230.80 $12.20 $ 5,832 $1,874
    246,000 $329.80 $31.50 $ 8,671 $2,839
    306,000 $428.60 $50.70 $11,503 $2,832
    366,000 $527.50 $70.00 $14,340 $2,837
    750,000 $560.50 $76.40 $15,286 $ 946
    Below are the Federal Tax thresholds (2023). There is a jump from 24% to 32% by crossing the $340,100 threshold.
    Lower Upper Marginal
    $ 0 $ 20,550 10%
    $ 20,550 $ 83,550 12%
    $ 83,550 $178,150 22%
    $178,150 $340,100 24%
    $340,100 $431,900 32%
    $431,900 $647,850 35%
    $647,850 + 37%
    Optimizing a Roth Conversion probably means converting as much as possible because the IRMAA decreases above $750,000 and the federal tax rates increase by small increments above $340,100. However, when you take into account the additional taxes that have to be paid for both Federal Taxes and IRMAA it becomes more of a cash flow constraint. As a recent retiree, I have three years before Federal Tax rates sunset, and four years until reaching 72. This three-to-four-year window is the optimum time to do Roth Conversions. Using municipal bonds, tax-efficient accounts, tax loss harvesting, and deferring Social Security are useful methods for targeting Federal and Medicare thresholds.
  • TCW Developing Markets Equity Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/892071/000119312523227623/d503353d497.htm
    497 1 d503353d497.htm 497
    TCW Funds, Inc.
    TCW Developing Markets Equity Fund — Class I and Class N
    Supplement dated September 1, 2023 to
    the Prospectus and Prospectus Summary, dated March 1, 2023
    The Board of Directors of TCW Funds, Inc. (the “Corporation”) has approved the liquidation (the “Liquidation”) of the TCW Developing Markets Equity Fund (the “Fund”). The Liquidation will occur on or about October 27, 2023 (“Liquidation Date”). This date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Corporation’s officers.
    Suspension of Sales. Effective the close of business on September 29, 2023, the Fund will no longer sell shares to new investors or existing shareholders, including through exchanges into the Fund from other funds of the Corporation.
    Mechanics. In connection with the Liquidation, any shares of the Fund outstanding on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date. The proceeds of any such redemption will be equal to the net asset value of such shares after the Fund has paid or provided for all of its charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities. The distribution to shareholders of these liquidation proceeds will occur as soon as practicable, and will be made to all shareholders of the Fund of record at the time of the Liquidation. Additionally, the Fund must declare and distribute to shareholders any realized capital gains and all net investment income no later than the final Liquidation distribution. TCW Investment Management Company LLC (“TIMCO”), investment advisor to the Fund, intends to arrange for the distribution of substantially all of the Fund’s net investment income before the Liquidation. TIMCO will bear all expenses in connection with the Liquidation to the extent such expenses exceed the amount of the Fund’s normal and customary fees and expenses accrued by the Fund through the Liquidation Date.
    Other Alternatives. At any time before the Liquidation Date, shareholders of the Fund may redeem their shares of the Fund and receive the net asset value thereof, pursuant to the procedures set forth under “Selling Shares” of “Your Investment — Account Policies and Services” in the Prospectus. Shareholders may also exchange their Fund shares for shares of the same class of any other fund of the Corporation, as described in and subject to any restrictions set forth under “Exchanging Shares” of “Your Investment — Account Policies and Services” in the Prospectus.
    U.S. Federal Income Tax Matters. For tax purposes, with respect to shares held in a taxable account, the automatic redemption of shares of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will generally be treated as any other redemption of shares (i.e., as a sale that may result in gain or loss for federal income tax purposes). Instead of waiting until the Liquidation Date, a shareholder may voluntarily redeem his or her shares before the Liquidation Date to the extent that the shareholder wishes to realize any such gains or losses prior thereto. See “Distributions and Taxes” in the Prospectus. Shareholders should consult their tax advisors regarding the tax treatment of the Liquidation.
    If you have any questions regarding the Liquidation, please contact the Corporation at 1-800-FUND TCW (1-800-386-3829).
  • TCW Emerging Markets Multi-Asset Opportunities Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/892071/000119312523227624/d535431d497.htm
    497 1 d535431d497.htm 497
    TCW Funds, Inc.
    TCW Emerging Markets Multi-Asset Opportunities Fund —
    Class I and Class N
    Supplement dated September 1, 2023 to
    the Prospectus and Prospectus Summary dated March 1, 2023
    The Board of Directors of TCW Funds, Inc. (the “Corporation”) has approved the liquidation (the “Liquidation”) of the TCW Emerging Markets Multi-Asset Opportunities Fund (the “Fund”). The Liquidation will occur on or about October 27, 2023 (“Liquidation Date”). This date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Corporation’s officers.
    Suspension of Sales. Effective the close of business on September 29, 2023, the Fund will no longer sell shares to new investors or existing shareholders, including through exchanges into the Fund from other funds of the Corporation.
    Mechanics. In connection with the Liquidation, any shares of the Fund outstanding on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date. The proceeds of any such redemption will be equal to the net asset value of such shares after the Fund has paid or provided for all of its charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities. The distribution to shareholders of these liquidation proceeds will occur as soon as practicable, and will be made to all shareholders of the Fund of record at the time of the Liquidation. Additionally, the Fund must declare and distribute to shareholders any realized capital gains and all net investment income no later than the final Liquidation distribution. TCW Investment Management Company LLC (“TIMCO”), investment advisor to the Fund, intends to arrange for the distribution of substantially all of the Fund’s net investment income before the Liquidation. TIMCO will bear all expenses in connection with the Liquidation to the extent such expenses exceed the amount of the Fund’s normal and customary fees and expenses accrued by the Fund through the Liquidation Date.
    Other Alternatives. At any time before the Liquidation Date, shareholders of the Fund may redeem their shares of the Fund and receive the net asset value thereof, pursuant to the procedures set forth under “Selling Shares” of “Your Investment — Account Policies and Services” in the Prospectus. Shareholders may also exchange their Fund shares for shares of the same class of any other fund of the Corporation, as described in and subject to any restrictions set forth under “Exchanging Shares” of “Your Investment — Account Policies and Services” in the Prospectus.
    U.S. Federal Income Tax Matters. For tax purposes, with respect to shares held in a taxable account, the automatic redemption of shares of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will generally be treated as any other redemption of shares (i.e., as a sale that may result in gain or loss for federal income tax purposes). Instead of waiting until the Liquidation Date, a shareholder may voluntarily redeem his or her shares before the Liquidation Date to the extent that the shareholder wishes to realize any such gains or losses prior thereto. See “Distributions and Taxes” in the Prospectus. Shareholders should consult their tax advisors regarding the tax treatment of the Liquidation.
    If you have any questions regarding the Liquidation, please contact the Corporation at 1-800-FUND TCW (1-800-386-38
  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    That's correct, muni income is included in the IRMAA calculation.
    However, if you get the same net income (after taxes) from a taxable fund and a muni fund, the muni fund looks better from an IRMAA perspective.
    For example, and to simplify arithmetic, suppose you're in a 25% tax bracket. A taxable bond fund yielding 4% returns the same amount after-tax as a muni bond fund yielding 3%.
    $100 invested in the taxable fund generates $4 of income (gross), while generating just $3 of income in the muni fund. The latter is better in terms of IRMAA.
    Even in a 22% bracket, it might be worth taking the $3 tax-free from the muni fund instead of going for $3.12 after- tax return from the taxable fund. You give up a small amount (12¢) of net (after-tax) income with the muni fund but reduce gross income by much more ($1).
    That could make the difference between owing IRMAA and staying below its threshold.
  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    Getting pushed into a higher tax bracket itself (without other effects like triggering IRMAA) is often not a good enough reason to use munis instead of taxable bonds.
    Say you're at the top of the 12% tax bracket. By assumption any extra taxable dollars will be taxed at 22% and there are no other effects.
    As tarheel observed, with current yields one would be better off investing in a taxable fund and getting taxed at 22% than investing in a muni fund. Even if those extra taxable dollars are what's bumping you into the higher 22% bracket.
    Likely getting pushed into the 24% bracket is also not enough to make munis attractive today. The 32% bracket would be a different story.
    For example, comparing sma3's VWLTX (SEC yield 3.84%) with VWESX (SEC yield 5.25%), the latter yields 3.99% after tax @ 24%. Taxable bonds still "win" (disregarding other concerns like IRMAA).
  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    Munis are more suited for taxable bond funds. "
    Sorry, rough night last night. This should read, "Munis are more suited for taxable accounts."