Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • FOMC Statement, 5/7/25
    NOTES
    Rates: Fed funds held at 4.25-4.50%, bank reserves rate at 4.40%, discount rate at 4.50%. Treasury QT continued -$5 billion/mo, MBS QT at -$35 billion/mo.
    Economy & job market are strong. Inflation is a bit higher than the target 2%+. Fed's dual mandate looks in balance now. However, risks to both inflation & job market have risen. Fed is patient & will wait to see which way the tilt may be. There is no clarity now on soft landing, stagflation or recession.
    Sentiments & soft data have deteriorated significantly & that is concerning. Hard data remain good. Their linkage is weak but the changes in soft data cannot be ignored either. Uncertainties are high.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1976/thread
  • Don't Look at Stock Markets. Look at the Ports.
    WABC. good knowledge. Actually I enjoy 13 and traffic,as they refer to themselves on San Francisco Bay, because I like to listen to the professionals.
    I spent 25 years on 10.
    I was trained by an old Coastie. Don't talk like a trucker. Don't talk like a cop. Don't talk like you're in the army. Never raise your voice because the mike doesn't work that way, develop a presence, etc.
  • Equity Ballast
    "A portfolio constructed for long-term resilience will be well served by a high-quality government-bond allocation,
    in particular one with US Treasuries and agency mortgages.
    The 2022 experience—as well as 2025 thus far—also illustrates the virtue of cash in a balanced portfolio,
    particularly for investors who are retired and actively drawing upon their portfolios for living expenses.
    While cash might not earn much over inflation over long periods of time, a modest allocation can provide
    both safety and liquidity when stocks and bonds fall simultaneously."

    https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/diversification-stocks-cash-has-made-good-case-itself

    M* said similar stuff 10-15 years ago about "a high-quality government-bond allocation,
    in particular one with US Treasuries and agency mortgages"
    BND(US Tot bond index) made 1.5% average annually for 10 years and 2.3% for 15 years.
    Now, after bonds didn't work in 2022, Benz says, use cash.
    Soon, she is going to say, use common sense; when the Fed tells you it's going to raise rates rapidly in 2022, you should be out for months.
    Mark the day, for I am agreeing with FD on something.
    Most of this kind of analysis is rearwards-looking anyway and generated by folks who feel you need to have your money 'somewhere' that is earning 'something' or else you're failing as an investor.
    I've never been a big bond person but for years I've had dry powder stored in idle cash earning nothing or in something uber-short-term like SGOV if I'm in one of my "f-you Schwab policies" moods.
    IMO sometimes just having a fat chunk of cash sitting in an interest-free MM/sweep account or in t-bills is more SWAN-ny than trying to play asset allocations amongst fixed income instruments. (While I like making money, I don't feel the need to eek every last red cent out of the markets, and SWAN-ny reserves, while perhaps annoying to see at times, provided reassurance.)
  • Apple sleazebags. News link.
    .........I have to think that $250K is a typo?
  • Equity Ballast
    "A portfolio constructed for long-term resilience will be well served by a high-quality government-bond allocation,
    in particular one with US Treasuries and agency mortgages.
    The 2022 experience—as well as 2025 thus far—also illustrates the virtue of cash in a balanced portfolio,
    particularly for investors who are retired and actively drawing upon their portfolios for living expenses.
    While cash might not earn much over inflation over long periods of time, a modest allocation can provide
    both safety and liquidity when stocks and bonds fall simultaneously."

    https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/diversification-stocks-cash-has-made-good-case-itself
    M* said similar stuff 10-15 years ago about "a high-quality government-bond allocation,
    in particular one with US Treasuries and agency mortgages"
    BND(US Tot bond index) made 1.5% average annually for 10 years and 2.3% for 15 years.
    Now, after bonds didn't work in 2022, Benz says, use cash.
    Soon, she is going to say, use common sense; when the Fed tells you it's going to raise rates rapidly in 2022, you should be out for months.
  • Apple sleazebags. News link.
    I bought a refurbished business laptop for just $250K

    Wow, you got a great deal! Who did you made that deal with?
    Where else that manufactures consumer electronics for low cost?
    I bought it in a PC store near me. The following is similar at Amazon.
    https://www.amazon.com/Lenovo-ThinkPad-T480-14-Laptop/dp/B091B8GVVV/ref=asc_df_B091B8GVVV?mcid=e7eea0eaab763e0697a9517829524284&hvocijid=14606640136559253452-B091B8GVVV-&hvexpln=73&hvadid=721245378154&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=14606640136559253452&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9010799&hvtargid=pla-2281435177898
    You can also buy a bigger SSD=512 for just $216.
    =============
    Pixel 6A at $153, see
    https://www.amazon.com/Google-Pixel-6a-Version-Charcoal/dp/B0B9JVZQTH/ref=sr_1_1?sr=8-1
  • Morningstar Medalist Rating for Semiliquid Funds
    "To help investors keep level heads and perform their due diligence on these often opaque, arcane, and more costly vehicles, Morningstar has launched the Morningstar Medalist Rating for Semiliquid Funds, a forward-looking assessment of semiliquid strategies’ performance potential versus relevant peers and traditional mutual and exchange-traded funds. We expect to launch initial ratings on a set of interval funds in the third quarter of 2025, which will be displayed on Morningstar.com..."
    "Our ratings will shed light on the potential benefits as well as the true costs, risks, and limitations of a wide range of vehicles, including interval funds, tender-offer funds, nontraded business development companies, and nontraded real estate investment trusts in the United States, as well as certain European long-term investment funds, United Kingdom long-term asset funds, and certain Australia-domiciled managed investment schemes."
    "Over the years, firms have offered various liquid alternatives approaches—like long-short, market-neutral, merger arbitrage, and others—intended to bring hedge-fund-like strategies to the masses. They’ve all had plausible rationales, and some have proved to be enduring investments, but they are also fraught with risk and hard to use well. Investors still lack awareness of these funds’ challenges and risks, and often fail to form realistic expectations for them."

    https://www.morningstar.com/alternative-investments/introducing-morningstar-medalist-rating-methodology-semiliquid-funds
  • Understanding The US Dollar...The Compound Interview with Kenneth Rogoff
    @bee, Thank you for the very informative interview with Ken Rogoff.
    Here is an interview with Martin Wolf on May 4, 2025. Professor Rogoff discussed the impact of tariffs on the dollar and the global economy. Great learning opportunity.
    https://ft.com/content/a5ba2569-e8a2-4888-ac88-6808bbe9670a
  • Apple sleazebags. News link.
    I bought a refurbished business laptop for just $250K
    Wow, you got a great deal! Who did you made that deal with?
    Where else that manufactures consumer electronics for low cost?
  • Apple sleazebags. News link.
    Apple is the only company I ever banned. This is based on
    1) Steve Jobs mistreated his employees, co-workers, and family members. When Steve Jobs fired an employee, he would call other companies and tell them not to hire this person and lie about how bad this employee was, pretty vicious in my book.
    2) It was Jobs's decision to charge ridiculous prices for a very high profit and Apple continues to practice it.
    3) Apple doesn't offer cheaper prices, because they don't have to; their customers are a cult.
    4) Apple makes it a lot more difficult to get out of its environment.
    I know Apple has great products, but I don't have to participate in that.
    Decades ago, the Apple laptop was about 4 times as expensive as a PC. Yes, I know it had fewer problems, but not anymore for many years. In over 20 years and using several PCs, my wife and I had only one virus, which I fixed in 5 minutes.
    Apple phones are great, but we have been using Moto phones for decades at about 20% of the cost of Apple. Now we use a refurbished Pixel.
    Sure, Apple is better, but I'm not going to pay 4-5 times more when Pixel is excellent.
    I would not buy an expensive Samsung either, but at least they offer much cheaper phones.
    A couple of years ago, I bought a refurbished business laptop for just $250K. Thinkpad with 16GB RAM, Windows 11 pro, and SSD=250 GB. This PC should be good for 95% of users.
    Two weeks later I bought a refurbished Pixel 6A for $170 and both are great.
    There is no reason to pay 3-4-5 times and get only 20% more, and I have plenty of money.
    BTW, the service advisors at Kia and Hyundai told me that 90+% of the complaints about phone-to-vehicle services are about Apple phones.
    My tracker watch costs $27.99 and it does most of the stuff Apple Tracker does that costs $300-400.
    I keep replacing it every couple of years.
    My current earbuds are another example: I paid just $11, half the price at Amazon. I have been using them for over a year. They are fantastic.
    To get the top 5-10% of electronics, you will pay 3-5-10 times more. Remember, in 2-3 years, technology advances, so why pay so much more instead of replacing cheap electronics with a new one?
    But, Apple has many obsessed/loyal customers, especially in the USA but not in the biggest growth markets of China and India.
  • Don't Look at Stock Markets. Look at the Ports.
    You can stock up on TP at Amazon.
    Only $3.20 / 100 sheets.
    Amazon TP
    While shopping there, you could also purchase a toilet brush with a similar theme.
    Amazon Brush
  • Don't Look at Stock Markets. Look at the Ports.
    And dont forget: “They don’t need to have 250 pencils. They can have five.”
  • Equity Ballast
    @msf,
    I previously saved the Christine Benz article from May 2019 locally on my computer (M* link now broken).
    Benz used the BBgBarc US Treasury 5-10 Year Index (MidT) to represent intermediate-term Treasuries.
    The BBgBarc US Treasury 20+ Year Index (LngT) represents long-term Treasuries.
    Correlation coefficients for the S&P 500 (SP500), Russell 2000 (R2000),
    and MSCI EAFE (INTRL) are listed below for periods ending 04/30/2019.
    3 Yr___MidT_LngT
    SP500 -0.23, -0.12
    R2000 -0.33, -0.19
    INTRL -0.15, -0.04
    5 Yr___MidT_LngT
    SP500 -0.28, -0.18
    R2000 -0.31, -0.20
    INTRL -0.23, -0.16
    10 Yr__MidT_LngT
    SP500 -0.37, -0.46
    R2000 -0.42, -0.48
    INTRL -0.31, -0.42
    15 Yr__MidT_LngT
    SP500 -0.28, -0.30
    R2000 -0.33, -0.33
    INTRL -0.23, -0.26
  • BLX 1Q25 report.
    Reason for confidence:
    As of March 31, 2025, 67% of total liquid assets
    represented deposits placed with the Federal Reserve Bank of New
    York (“FED”), and 23% of total liquid assets represented deposits
    placed with highly rated U.S. banks
    .
    The Bank obtains deposits from central banks, as well as from
    multilaterals, commercial banks and corporations primarily located
    in the Region. Total deposits amounted to $5,859 million at the end
    of 1Q25 (+8% QoQ and +24% YoY), representing 57% of total
    funding sources, compared to 52% a year ago, highlighting the
    change in the funding structure towards increased reliance in
    deposits.
    As of March 31, 2025, the Bank’s Yankee CD program totaled $1,065
    million, or 11% of total funding sources, providing granularity and complementing the short-term funding structure and long-standing
    support from the Bank’s Class A shareholders (i.e.: central banks and
    their designees), which represented 35% of total deposits at the end
    of 1Q25.

    https://mcusercontent.com/6632e94d6daa1bdbf46f55a23/files/df5aa1c9-b39c-71c5-956c-82580004e8e7/PR1Q25_Eng_Full_Report.pdf
    **************************************************
    About Bladex:
    Bladex, a multinational bank originally established by the central banks of Latin-American and Caribbean countries, began operations in 1979 to promote foreign trade and economic integration in the Region. The Bank, headquartered in Panama, also has offices in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the United States of America, and a Representative License in Peru, supporting the regional expansion and servicing of its customer base, which includes financial institutions and corporations. Bladex is listed on the NYSE in the United States of America (NYSE: BLX), since 1992, and its shareholders include: central banks and state-owned banks and entities representing 23 Latin American countries, commercial banks and financial institutions, and institutional and retail investors through its public listing.
  • Equity Ballast
    "If things get bad enough the very highest quality bonds will shine - and the longer the duration the better.
    That was the case in ‘07-‘09 when the house nearly burned down (financially speaking)."

    Medium-term and long-term Treasuries have historically provided excellent diversification for equities.
    Christine Benz penned an article several years ago which showed medium-term Treasuries (5 year?)
    provided similar diversification benefits to long-term Treasuries with greatly reduced interest rate risk.
    These results were found to be true during the various time periods studied then.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Added to FPNIX in IRA. Was considering an add to an individual agency bond, but want more flexibility to sell if needed, so went with FPNIX, which has over 75% in securitized bonds. Intend to enter the 10-yr treasury auction in the morning.
  • Equity Ballast
    Regarding DODBX, a new committee took over management of the fund in May 2022.
    The team made changes to reduce volatility and increase diversification.
    More international stocks were added as were short-term TIPS (new to the portfolio).
    The team also established an ongoing 5% short position in the S&P 500.
  • Equity Ballast
    From Morningstar's 2025 Diversification Landscape report (link in preceding article).
    I haven't read the entire 50+ page report.
    Key Takeaways:
    The plain-vanilla version of a 60/40 portfolio (made up of US stocks and US investment-grade bonds)
    gained about 15% in 2024. Diversifying into other asset classes generally led to lower returns.
    Although broader portfolio diversification was a net positive during the 2022 bear market,
    the basic 60/40 portfolio, composed of US stocks and high-quality bonds,
    has been tough to beat over longer periods.
    A 60/40 portfolio improved risk-adjusted returns versus an all-stock benchmark
    in more than 83% of the rolling 10-year periods dating back to 1976.
    Correlations between the United States and other developed markets around the world
    have remained high while non-US stocks lagged by a wide margin through 2024,
    raising questions about the long-term value of international diversification.
    Over the past 20 years several asset classes—including corporate bonds, global bonds, high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, REITs, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities—have become more closely correlated
    with stocks. Many of these categories have also posted losses in periods of equity market stress.
    In such periods, Treasury bonds, gold, commodities, and some alternative investment strategies
    have been more compelling portfolio diversifiers.
    Diversification strategies that have worked in the past may not work in the future.
    In a period of rising interest rates and/or above-average inflation, Treasuries and other high-quality bonds
    would likely be less reliable diversifiers, although they still have merit as core portfolio holdings.
    The major shifts in US tariff policy announced in April 2025 have also added massive levels of uncertainty
    to the investment landscape, potentially upending many previously established performance patterns.