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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    Agreed! At any rate, I'm not making any deliberate moves to add to my foreign exposure in stocks or bonds. Foreign equity exposure for me has stood at 9% of total for quite some time. EM is negligible, according to Morningstar X-Ray. And no EM bonds. I keep tracking AGEPX but won't buy unless something drastic happens. I'm happy to remain domestic with my bonds, all junk, except what may be in PRWCX. I can get fat yield while remaining domestic. Yes, total return is the goal. I bought at the wrong time. I'm riding it out, collecting and reinvesting dividends every month. I figure I'll stand pat for a long time in those junk funds. I also just started a position for wifey in SCHP TIPs of varying durations. That's her small but slowly growing pick-em-up truck fund, for our other home in Asia. Give us a decade or more and we might actually have enough in there for a pickup purchase! And les I forget: PRTXX (Treasuries, MM) is offering lovely returns lately, at low to zero risk: 4.31%.
  • Bad Day? And some perspective …
    That is why I like to look at several sources to confirm the data is accurate.
    Additional, this "futures" topic is being posed in @Catch22 posting.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60788/only-for-the-sake-of-peeking-ahead-sunday-march-12-if-you-re-curious#latest
  • Bad Day? And some perspective …
    Hmmm, I always thought what yogi said is true. the cnn link you show says:
    Last updated Mar 10 at 4:59 PM ET
  • J. Grantham warns another yr bear market
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeremy-grantham-stock-market-bubble-fed-horror-show-interest-rates-2023-3
    Business News
    Veteran investor Jeremy Grantham says the stock bubble is still deflating and the market will go down in 2024 amid a ‘horror show’ from the Fed.
    by Alma Winkle March 10, 2023
    Veteran investor Jeremy Grantham says the stock bubble is still deflating and the market will go down in 2024 amid a ‘horror show’ from the Fed.
    Jeremy Grantham said that the stock bubble is still in the process of deflating and the market will not bottom out until 2024.
    The veteran investor blasted the Fed’s monetary policy as a 36-year-long “horror show.”
    He predicted mild pain for investors in the coming year, while warning of a downturn in equities around April.
    The stock market bubble is still in the process of deflating, according to veteran investor Jeremy Grantham, and equities will finally bottom out in late 2024 amid the Federal Reserve’s “horror show” of monetary policy.
    In a recent interview on Bloomberg’s What Goes Up podcast, the GMO co-founder reiterated his view that stocks were in a speculative bubble and about to pop, thanks to the end of ultra-low interest rates and ample liquidity in the market. Thanks for those who brought the stock. For circling high during the pandemic.
    Grantham also blasted the Fed’s monetary policy in the years since former Alan Greenspan took over as central bank chairman in 1987, calling its effects on the US economy a 36-year-long “horror show”, which has recently Helped build immense wealth over the years. ,
    No end in sights until 2024, maybe 17% more downturn
    so much pain ahead...
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    A very non scientific measure is how the normally non reactive, stay the course Bogelheads are reacting. On a day when the markets are down big time no Bogelhead would think of posting anything about it. They know that they would be blasted by the “stay the course
    “ group think. But since Thursday night at 11;40pm the “Silicon Valley Bank fails” thread now has 564 posts. I would say that the fear meter is redlined.
  • Bad Day? And some perspective …
    Future market for next week looks bad -1%.
    Glad to see you have a good % cash position so you have wait for things to settle down. Defensive positions held up in addition to consumer staples that include IG bonds, treasuries, and precious materials. Let's hope the trend holds for next few week.
  • Schwab...
    @sma3...buy SCHW...ya, crazy part of me was thinking about it...but kind of remember during 9/11 after market closed the clowns on CNBC were putting word out that shorting the market was "unpatriotic"....F me to tears.
    Question: How many folks will be lined up tomorrow morning outside First Republic branches in LaLa land? Ole' Yeller better make an announcement tonight or this could get real ugly real quick...
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    @linter
    I transcribed my grandfather's hand scribbled diaries from two business trips he took to Europe in 1938 and 1940
    He was in Vienna March 15, 1938 (Anschluss ) and arguing with the desk clerk at the Hotel Imperial about why they had given his room away to the Nazis when Hitler Goering etc marched right by them, not ten feet away.
    He couldn't fly out of Europe in 1940 and had to wait six weeks for a ship in Lisbon, along with hundreds of refugees and Gestapo He kept daily entries describing the faces and characters.
    They are both amazing documents
    These are accessible because they are limited in words and focused content. While today's world it seems like everyone puts there every thought online, how on earth is anybody going to find the gold among the dross in years to come?
  • Silicon Valley Bank: Greed and Stupidity Strike Again

    FWIW saying ... perfect timing....
    "Fortunately, Silicon Valley Bank’s resolution plan is still fresh. The bank became large enough in 2021 that regulators required it to draw up a “living will” on a three-yearly cycle. Silicon Valley Bank submitted its first one in December [2022]."
    Marc Rubenstein's full piece is worth reading: https://www.netinterest.co/p/the-demise-of-silicon-valley-bank
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    Re “painfully amusing … ” Spot-on @LewisBraham +1 Pogo couldn’t have said it better.
    Gosh - The appearance of posts questioning the safety of cash & short-term deposits is also painfully amusing and sounds a lot like those that popped-up on the board (Fund Alarm?) in the first few months of the Great Financial Crisis of ‘07-‘09. Obviously there are stark differences between the two episodes.
    From the network news sources, Etsy and Roku are a couple prominent businesses that had money at SVB. Kind of sounds like they’re not covered to the full extent by FDIC insurance. And several Etsy sellers appeared on air bemoaning that their payments for items sold weren’t being received. What say you J. Powell?
  • Silicon Valley Bank: Greed and Stupidity Strike Again
    Snippet of article written by ALFONSO PECCATIELLO (ALF) -substack
    "banks with assets below $250 billion (and a few more requirements) are not subject to the tighter regulatory scrutiny like big banks: no liquidity ratios (LCR), no net stable funding requirements (NSFR) forcing you to diversify your funding base and light stress tests. This allowed SVB to run wild with its investment portfolio and funding base concentration.
    SVB’s management repeatedly lobbied to increase the cap for lax regulatory scrutiny and conveniently remained 20-30 billion below the $250 billion threshold?
    It is hard to deny a decent amount of moral hazard was at play here
    SVB was not applying basic risk management practices, and exposing its investors and depositors to a gigantic amount of risk.
    Economically speaking, a $120 bn bond portfolio with a 5.6y non-hedged duration means that every 10 bps move higher in 5-year interest rate lost the bank almost $700 million.
    100 bps? $7 billion economic loss.
    200 bps? $14 billion economic loss.
    Basically the entire bank’s capital wiped out.
    As the tech/IPO boom faded, deposits stopped coming in 2022.
    Recently, depositors started taking their money away and forced SVB to realize this huge losses on bond investments to service deposit outflows.
    The concentrated nature of the deposit base and awful risk management meant SVB went belly up real quick. Many people are now calling for a blanket bailout.
    But the evidence that moral hazard was at play are too big to be ignored.
    And we should not reward moral hazard."
    Author speaks to incompetence and/or moral hazard. Notes that in DEC 21, SVB DID HEDGE their portfolio but NOT in DEC 22.
    Oy Vey.
    what other banks are being run like this? Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    March 10, '23
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-03-11/wall-street-week-full-show-03-10-2023
    Ketterer at Causeway is so smart and engaging. But I just don't need small-cap volatility anymore. The other guest, Barbers Reinhard from Voya says you would do well with EM if you can hang on for 3-4 years into the future. Not interested, after EM has burned me so often.
    I enjoyed the mildly stated but pointed conflicts between the two women in the early segment. Kettner thinks active management best now. Avoid index funds. Reinhard primarily uses index funds due to low cost. Ketterer likes foreign developed markets which she sees as cheap if measured against the U.S. the past decade. But Reinhard says to reduce exposure to foreign markets which have been hot more recently. Favors U.S. holdings.
    Sure, Kettner is more media savvy, younger looking, appears to have her head screwed on straight. Doesn’t mean she’s right on those issues. Interesting that Reinhard was in studio with the host / moderator while Ketterer appeared on a large screen. I’m sure psychologists or communications professors would have a good take on how that plays in to viewer perceptions. But, I haven’t a clue. (Well, I do have a clue, but it’s not worth sharing.)
    Zell comes across as an old money-grubbing traditionalist concerned about his bottom line and little else.
  • SVB FINANCIAL CRISIS
    i've been a rolling stone contributing-editor writer since 1998 and worked there in different capacities since 1982 and while many folks think rs sold out decades ago, it's shocking to me how truly awful it has become since it was bought by penske media a few years ago. it's mostly all phony opinion put-downs now, with real reporting hardly given a thought. but that's the pressure of the modern online world, too, where 'content' has to be produced at a frantic clip that does away with more fact-based stuff: there's just no time for it ... atho of course there are exceptions.
    as to the decline before penske. well, rs did some great work and had some great writers, the late hunter thompson, of course, but also matt taibi. me, i guess i'm part of the decline, what with writing cover stories about clay aiken and that snooki creature. then again, i was the last legit journalist to visit charlie manson in prison and write about him, though i got heat for that just being sensationalist junk, too. ain't no way to really win, not that i ever thought about it or cared.
    but man o man do i miss the old days, when i could write 10k-word pieces that showed up in print and seemed to go on forever (for better or worse, ha ha). while i'm still on the masthead, i haven't had a piece published there in a long time. my style of writing -- mainly black comedy of a sort -- no longer flies with the new bosses; plus, i can't do straight opinion and that's what most of it has become.
    i'm an ancient fart now, and the whole world has changed around me, and while i think it's all for the worse, so do most ancient farts. my way of dealing with it is to shrug and do something else. right now that means transcribing my great aunt's diaries from 1923, when she was traveling in post-WW1 Europe, and putting em online at this place called substack. feel free to check them out. she really was something else and a far better writer than me even at my so-called best. https://thekathidiaries.substack.com/
  • Schwab...
    For shorter term cash needs I was advised to put it into an FDIC insured bank deposit account. This should be insured up to 250K. I need to call Schwab tomorrow but I believe you can do this at Schwab. .... Joe and RForno I am curious— are you keeping your bank funds at Schwab for covering short term needs?
    I keep maybe 10-15K in my credit union account at any one time for regular/routine expenses (and a cushion!) - which mostly is my paycheck and/or one-off payments/honoraria .....but anything above that, plus the rest of any idle cash goes into Schwab and t-bills. If I need to make a big purchase or payment I just sell the t-bills and ACH the proceeds back into my checking account.