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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • RPHYX/RPHIX
    @msf, I got my numbers from charting on 'StockCharts by just moving the bar 30, 90, 180 days and taking the 3/1 value. But as noted, the numbers are just a non-exact reference for comparison to a 1 year treasury. I think a better comparison than looking at just a given months yield.
  • RPHYX/RPHIX
    The figures are old, e.g. M* reports a 1 month return (as of March 1) of 0.27%. Confirmed by RiverPark, whose page shows month return ending 2/28 as 0.27%. M* chart shows a return of 0.418% for 12/30/22 through 1/30/23.
    All of this just confirms your writing that "extrapolating the data is anything but exact", and my common refrain that "what have you done for me lately" (here, the past month) distorts analyses.
    Feb returns were unspectacular because rates were rising quickly, depressing the prices of holdings (even very short term ones). Thus one sees the occasional daily decline in RPHYX in Feb, but no decline in January or last December. This is why RPHYX/ RPHIX should hold its own unless there are more rapid rate increases. Outperform is more iffy.
  • RPHYX/RPHIX
    I go back and forth on this fund versus treasuries now in the 4.7-5% range, but RPHYX has actually had a relatively good run the past 6 months.
    What I see for total return over that time:
    180 days +3.3% extrapolated 1 year return 6.6%
    90 days +2.11% extrapolate 1 year return 8.4%
    60 days +1.13% extrapolate 1 year return 6.8%
    30 days +.41% extrapolate 1 year return 4.9%
    Extrapolating the data is anything but exact, but I think it gives a closer idea than yield for where it's headed in comparison to other fixed income, like treasuries. Maybe I'm wrong on that. That said, this fund was the bulk of my withdrawal bucket for quite a while, but I have reduced it substantially the past couple months to buy treasuries.
  • RPHYX/RPHIX
    I prefer to look at total return. If we're looking at payout rates, the payout rate of T-bills is 0.00% (zero coupon). At this point, 6 month T-bills come out a bit better.
    Annualized total return of RPHIX extrapolating from YTD (Jan &Feb, 59 days) of 0.72% comes out to about 4.53% with daily compounding. In a modestly rising interest rate environment I expect a slightly better return - with high turnover (164%), reinvestments should fetch a bit higher yield.
    Projected yield on next auction of 6 month T-bills is 4.9%. Duration is 6 months (for zero coupon bonds, duration = maturity). Even if rates rise 3/4% in the next half year and one needs to liquidate, one should be able to get at least:
    4.9% - 1/2 year x 3/4% = 4.525%
    So in theory at least, one will get a somewhat better return with T-bills if held to maturity and will be risking very little if one sells early (mimicking the liquidity of RPHIX).
    Pretty close to a wash (aside from state income tax concerns) - one might think of RPHIX as a hold. New cash? I would go with the T-bills.
  • Calamos Global Sustainable Equities Fund to liquidate
    update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/826732/000110465923027416/tm238039d1_497.htm
    1 tm238039d1_497.htm 497
    CALAMOS® FAMILY OF FUNDS
    CALAMOS INVESTMENT TRUST
    Calamos Global Sustainable Equities Fund (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated March 1, 2023 to the Fund’s
    Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated March 1, 2023, as supplemented
    As previously disclosed in the prospectus supplements dated November 2, 2022 and February 17, 2023, the Fund’s Board of Trustees approved a proposal to liquidate the Fund at a meeting held on October 31, 2022.
    It is expected that the Fund will liquidate on or about March 27, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”). All dates noted in this announcement are effective as of the close of business on the respective date.
    Effective February 21, 2023, the Fund stopped accepting purchases from new investors and existing shareholders, except that existing investors that hold Fund shares through defined contribution retirement plans as of February 17, 2023, may continue to purchase Fund shares through March 20, 2023. At this time, no final distribution is anticipated. If a final distribution is subsequently required, it will be paid no later than Wednesday, March 22, 2023. The Fund reserves the right to modify the extent to which sales of shares are limited prior to the Fund’s liquidation.
    Any contingent deferred sales charge that would be applicable on a redemption of the Fund’s shares shall be waived from February 21, 2023 to the Liquidation Date.
    Calamos expects to begin to reduce the remaining assets of the Fund to distributable form in cash on or around March 20, 2023, to facilitate the Fund’s liquidation. Beginning on that date, the Fund may no longer be invested in accordance with its principal investment strategies. The last date to place redemptions via the NSCC is Friday, March 24, 2023. After the close of business on the Liquidation Date, the Fund will liquidate any remaining shareholder accounts and will send shareholders the proceeds of the liquidation.
    PLEASE RETAIN SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • PRWCX/TRAIX Annual Report dated 12/31/2022
    Interesting he thinks energy is expensive although most oil stocks are trading at PE etc well below the SP500 and energy still makes up a tiny % of SP500
    I understand your sentiments @sma3, but I think we also have to look at:
    1) TTM P/E vs forward P/E (trailing measures include some flush and warnings due to higher energy prices in ‘22)
    2) Energy stocks generally always have low P/E’s, especially in relation to the overall market (S&P 500, etc.)
    Not a criticism….I do the same….also, I didn’t read the annual report yet, but I imagine he is saying defensive stocks (safer during recession risks and higher volatility) and commodities (inflation trades) are “played out.”
  • Hartford Quality Value Fund will convert to an ETF
    It's not just this Hartford fund that Wellington manages.
    "Hartford Funds offers a diverse line-up of mutual funds, primarily sub-advised by Wellington Management."
    https://www.cbinsights.com/investor/hartford-funds
    2001, WSJ: Behind the Scenes: Wellington Management Quietly Puts Hartford Funds Group on Map
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB997055055405588489
    From 2012, Pensions and Investments: "Wellington currently subadvises 45 of the Hartford's 77 mutual funds, including all of the equity funds. But The Hartford is in the process of moving all of its funds to Wellington, pending approval from the remaining funds' board of directors."
    https://www.pionline.com/article/20120330/ONLINE/120339999/the-hartford-moves-closer-to-wellington-looks-to-pump-up-its-mutual-funds
    From M*: "Wellington has long run the firm's equity funds--over half of its $116 billion in fund assets--and took the reins of Hartford Fund's fixed-income platform beginning in 2012. In 2016, Hartford Funds ... partnered with U.K.-based Schroders to expand its investment platform further."
    https://www.morningstar.com/asset-management-companies/hartford-funds-BN00000J6S
    A lengthy, current (Feb 23, 2023) piece (book excerpt) on Wellington's organization, history and relationship to Vanguard (and others):
    The third component of Wellington’s strategy would be a group of unusually capable senior relationship managers, superior to what other competitors could offer. These professionals would “belong” to each of their clients’ senior executives and would custom tailor an optimal portfolio of specialist portfolio managers.
    ...
    They created a diverse portfolio of investment units that could be custom-blended to suit each major client and, most particularly, Wellington’s largest client: Vanguard.
    https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b8xk7ncyw2d0pz/The-Inside-Story-of-How-Wellington-and-Vanguard-Became-Partners
    Hartford is a relatively unheralded place to find funds managed by Wellington. If Vanguard/Wellington doesn't have a particular type of fund one is interested in, one might look for that type of fund at Hartford. These days, their A shares are widely available NTF, and their less expensive Y or I class shares are available TF with low mins. Of course, when offered in ETF form, those funds are pretty much universally available.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/1/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/1/23
    For the week ending on 3/1/23, bearish became the top sentiment (44.8%; high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (23.4%; very low); neutral became the middle sentiment (31.8%; about average); Bull-Bear Spread was -21.4% (very low). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; cryptos; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (53+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were down, bonds down, oil up sharply, gold up a bit, dollar flat. Sentiment trend change from early-February is seen now. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/958
  • PRWCX/TRAIX Annual Report dated 12/31/2022
    MikeM wrote: Where do we not see value?
    Where everyone is hiding out—Where investors are seeking safety and where valuations are expensive. The most obvious areas are defense, energy, staples, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals... Speculative and profitless tech.
    1. Noted that GE, Amazon and Microsoft were sold and bought (Amazon and Microsoft).
    2. Treasury notes was increased to 9%. Recall it was at 6-7% in the semiannual report.
    3. Asset allocation: 62% stocks, 32% bonds, and 6% cash. In the past, the fund has over 70% stocks.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Jason Zweig had an article in WSJ describing what @hank wrote above. It is about making lemonade out of lemon from treasuries.
    Until last year, the Fed had kept interest rates near zero for most of the past decade-and-a-half. Investors became desperate for something, anything, that yielded more than 1%. Wall Street spewed forth high-yield debt, energy partnerships, emerging-market bonds, private credit funds, private real-estate trusts, business-development companies, floating-rate bank-loan funds—all sold on the premise that you needed to take extra risk (and pay extra fees) to get extra income.
    But a 5% yield on short-term Treasurys is like kryptonite for the purveyors of that propaganda. “Why chase yield if you’re getting decent returns on a diversified, high-quality fixed-income portfolio?” says Julie Virta, a senior financial adviser at Vanguard Personal Advisor Services in Malvern, Pa.
    https://wsj.com/articles/welcome-to-the-5-world-where-yield-chases-you-af3df384
    At 4% treasury yield, how does that compete with stocks in general? In just 2 months, the 60/40 portfolio has rollbacked all the gain since the beginning of this year.
  • PRWCX/TRAIX Annual Report dated 12/31/2022
    (Quoting from above:)
    "Utilities over staples—"
    I've been bird-dogging UTILITIES for quite a while. I have not been able to find one whose P/E was not too high for my liking. Or else the dividend was too low or missing altogether.
    Just checked-up on FORTIS again, out of St. John's, Newfoundland. (FTS.) The P/E is still way up there, at 19.31. The div. looks attractive, though. And using the chart, I see it hit an all-time high on 31 May, 2022. Tonight, it's down from that peak by -18.27%. Maybe someone ELSE will be tempted to buy.
    https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/fts/quote
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    4.02% on the 10-year Wednesday evening. Good grief. It’s getting harder to make $$ in these markets,
  • Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
    Going, going, gone?
    There is news that Silvergate/SI delayed filing reports with the SEC and raised going-concern issues. It seems that it had to suddenly pay back the large FHLB loan (why it got that loan in the first place was my question then; didn't seem like housing related). It is below $10 in the after-markets this evening. Some are speculating on Twitter if it would survive this weekend.
    https://twitter.com/YBB_Finance/status/1631081040277012480
  • PRWCX/TRAIX Annual Report dated 12/31/2022
    thanks so much for letting us know this report was out. I was intrigued by Giroux's discussion of both NXPI and TXN back in the Fall so did some more research and bought both. They have done well. I track his monthly holdings and there's a new stock that has popped up in his top 10 -- Intercontinental Exchange. Not familiar with that company but will read up.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    In addition to the 10 yr yield, the 2yr treasury yield reached 4.8% on Tuesday (a level last seen in mid-2006). The 6 month T bill reached 5.1%. Stocks continue to fall today.
    Pimco managers have been buying long treasuries as their prices dropped with increased yield.
  • Your tax dollars at work - US Treasury/Savings Bonds
    The bonds were still in my Mom's name. We thought about changing that while she was still alive, but it would have required us all to go to bank and do the same thing and she didn't have the stamina for it at 99.
    I don't remember if we could have done it by mailing in the bonds etc, but as you point out, that requires trip to PO and insurance and certification. I love my lost PO staff, but I do not trust the USPS to handle things with 100% efficiency. They lost my daughter's college tuition check. Almost got kicked out of school!
    Amazingly (to me, at least), it seems that even with power of attorney one cannot change the title on a savings bond.
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/forms/sav0105.pdf
    What confused me was that the way you wrote your original post, it sounded like all siblings had to be at the bank together to cash the savings bonds. However, each bond could have been cashed alone by the individual sibling named as beneficiary on that bond. Three trips and six hours instead of one trip and two hours; not really an improvement.
    Your experience illustrates the variability in cashing savings bonds in banks. I recently helped (instructed) someone in cashing inherited savings bonds. This person's main bank was Capital One, which is how I learned that Capital One doesn't handle savings bonds. A backup bank initially informed this person that the money would have to be left in an account at the bank for some number of days, or perhaps it was weeks. Fortunately, when they actually cashed the inherited bonds, it was a quick and painless process, and the cash was made available either immediately or within a day (I forget).
    Regarding postal services: while registered mail gets somewhat more careful handling, ISTM its main virtue is insuring valuables. Nonnegotiable instruments like checks and savings bonds have no insurance value. So I don't use registered mail for them.
    https://faq.usps.com/s/article/Registered-Mail-The-Basics
    I use certified mail when I want proof of delivery (e.g. for a legal notice). Even certified mail can get lost (been there, done that). Maybe certified improves your odds of completed delivery, but there's still a risk. If TD says it didn't receive the savings bonds, all the proof in the world to the contrary won't help avoid filing for replacements.
  • PSTL div 28 Feb '23
    I am on Mark's side. I am still a paper addict, but think it is wise not to have to through out 14 full newspapers (NYT and WaPo) a week in addition to three or four slick magazines.
    Reading online is not the same to me as on paper.
    A large part of this is the way newspapers in particular have "dumbed down" the online versions. The Washington Post fortunately still has the print edition duplicated online.
    A much different experience to me
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    The 10y T touched 4% earlier today. Just for reference, Pimco's base case range from their January outlook was 3.25-4.25.