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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Next yr bull????
    Hi Sir @crash
    Pls look at TMF 12 24 months chart
    Ust 10 yrs could be few yrs hold imho
    If have lots fry powder You may consider buying bunch now like 1000 shares then start selling little once get to 20, 25, 30 etc....
  • Timely Tax Ideas from Barron's This Week
    More ideas this week, 12/10/22.
    TAXES and GIVING. The ESTATE exemption of $12.06/$24.12 million (single/joint) is for super-wealthy, but there are many others things that ordinary investors can do. ANNUAL gift EXEMPTION is $16K/yr/person ($17K in 2023) to avoid filing Form 709 (that is tricky but can also be done for larger gifts). Since 2018, standard deduction has been high (90% now just take standard deduction), so consider BUNCHING up charitable contributions (including large DAF contributions), Roth Conversions and other deductions for an itemizing-year. Older folks (70+) can use QCDs that also count for RMDs (72+). This has been a bad year but consider donating long-held APPRECIATED securities or those with rare profits in 2022 (energy). BEWARE that some relaxations for charitable contributions for 2020-21 have expired and don’t apply in 2022.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/chairty-taxes-giving-strategies-51670454584?mod=past_editions
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/374/barron-december-12-2022-2
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    I thought Louis Rukeyser’s 1980 hair style (beginning at the 8:45 mark) was by far the most fascinating aspect.
    Both the early guests were good. Worth a second viewing. First good show in a while. If memory serves correct … one recent program dealt solely with environmental investing and another featured re-runs of earlier guest appearances.
  • Just uncovered: AXAHY. AXA insurance. Paris HQ
    Most sites have RSI default as 14 but it can be adjusted. In daily view, it is 14 days, in weekly view 14 weeks, in monthly view 14 months. Strength or weakness in 14 periods can only tell so much.
    There is also a different RSI that is company or fund vs SP500.
  • Next yr bull????
    Or
    https://fortune.com/2022/12/07/how-bad-recession-economist-dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-stock-market-forecast/
    Dr. Doom’ Nouriel Roubini says a severe recession will cause stocks to drop 25%—and warns zombie companies are in danger
    Even if the U.S. economy experiences only a “short and shallow” recession, “Dr. Doom” sees stocks falling another 15%.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/gilpress/2022/12/08/analysts-predictions-about-ai-in-2023/?sh=32244c047179
    Nobody knows
    Best guess maybe keep selling weekly or 14d Spy puts 10% lowered stock prices collect small weekly premiums
  • Next yr bull????
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bull-market-5000-projection-economy-recession-sp500-2022-12
    Spy/ stocks +26% next 12 months?!
    Feds ease off pedals, stocks so low recently, maybe forecasted bad Er for 2023, maybe short recession ( /could be priced in)/ poor unemployment....
    Maybe lots speculation but history showed
    markets already taken off 1/2 ways through major past recessions
    Analysts different firms recent analysis states could be 3700 - 4500 4600 end Dec 2023
    Get ready
  • Just uncovered: AXAHY. AXA insurance. Paris HQ
    5 year chart
    Strictly from a technical view over 5 years, this product appears to be near fully priced at this time. A RSI of 30 and below is a technical level that may be considered near or at 'oversold'; while a RSI of 70 and greater may be considered as at or near 'overbought'. AXA is at 65.16 RSI, which may be considered near the top of its technical price range at this time; that there may not be much more upward movement remaining.
    Of course, other market circumstances or special circumstances for this company must be taken into consideration; that may nullify technical criteria.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Friday, slightly higher monthly Producer Price Index and Core PPI dinged yields to move a bit higher; although the 12 month PPI's trend continues to move lower. Survey says, inflation expectations lowest since 2021 .......only a survey of humans, Univ. of Michigan consumer data and economists, too; .....absorb the information with caution. Most bond sector prices were positive for the week, until Friday; when prices had the largest daily move down.
    As with all investing, a lot of moving parts affecting a variety of shorter term movements. For me, the hardest decisions are attempting to discover bottoms along the way and try to determine the 'why's. Why is a particular sector 'oversold', or 'overbought'; and how long will this last. Age old questions, eh?
    Perhaps the recent (since October 25) price strength in the longer duration bond areas is a prelude of what is to come; if/when there is a FED induced recession, and/or the need to again back down on yield increases. Normal expectations, IMO; although the market place(s) remain in a 'this time is different' financial mode. AND next week brings CPI numbers and FED speak on Wednesday.
    And if you were wonding, but hadn't taken a peek; both of the below links also have various internal tabs for other data.
    Long duration bull and bear bond etf's, list 1
    Long duration bonds, list/view 2
    ---Several selected bond fund returns since October 25.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, December 5- December 9, 2022
    --- AGG = -.5% / -11.6% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.08% / -1.31% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.11% / -3.9% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.51% / -8.8% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -.84% / -13.5% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -1.6% / -10.9% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = -.85% / -4.3% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -2.8% / -27.3% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = -.71% / -26.8% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -.4% / -33.3% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -.39% / -34.8% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = +.8% / +70% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = -2.4% / -66% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = -.31% / -12.3% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = -.69% / -9.8% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = -.51% / -15.5% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 3.81% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. The rate of rise in the yield remains stagnate again for this past week, versus the past six months.

    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • The $42 Billion Question: Why Aren’t Americans Ditching Big Banks?
    If we're talking about old times and good friends, it used to be that "You have a friend at Chase Manhattan." Bankers Trust responded to Chase's ad campaign:
    IF YOU WANT A FRIEND GO BUY A DOG.
    YOU’LL FIND A BANKER AT BANKERS TRUST.
    https://www.campaignlive.com/article/advertising-not-friend/1429500
    That's more what I want out of a bank. To each their own.
  • The $42 Billion Question: Why Aren’t Americans Ditching Big Banks?
    I was happy with Washington Mutual (WaMu) for a number of years.
    They had many branches close to my home, their personnel were friendly, and customer service was great.
    Under Kerry Killinger in the 90s, WaMu expanded from 84 branches in 1991 to 248 in 1995.
    The following decade Washington Mutual became the country's largest savings-and-loan bank
    and also the largest mortgage originator. Subprime loans accounted for some of this rapid growth.
    When the subprime lending crisis culminated, the Office of Thrift Management seized the bank on 09/25/2008.
    Washington Mutual was sold to JPMorgan Chase hours later. This was the largest bank failure in U.S. history.
    I was not pleased with JPMorgan Chase.
    They were much more "corporate" than WaMu.
    Their lobbies felt sterile and their associates were impersonal.
    I switched to a local credit union in 2010 and haven't looked back.
    Most of my banking is conducted online with other financial institutions
    but it's nice to have an option with a nearby physical presence.
    When a medallion signature guarantee was needed to transfer my Roth IRA a few years ago,
    the credit union provided a convenient avenue to obtain this guarantee.
  • The $42 Billion Question: Why Aren’t Americans Ditching Big Banks?
    I've been banking online for 15+ years. I still have an account with one of the Big 4 and keep just above the minimum balance to avoid monthly fees. Best of both worlds though for all practical purposes I can close out my physical bank account.
    Over 15 years the differential between online bank rates and the measly rate I get from my Big 4 bank has been pretty significant.
  • Vanguard Quits Net-Zero Alliance
    Let me add this info based on % of total electricity produced by renewables.
    Sorry about formatting.
    Rank: State: Electricity production from renewables: Largest renewable energy source: Largest non-renewable energy source:
    1 Vermont 99.9% Hydroelectric Natural gas
    2 Maine 78.6% Hydroelectric Natural gas
    3 Idaho 76.3% Hydroelectric Natural gas
    4 South Dakota 73.8% Hydroelectric Coal
    5 Washington 69.8% Hydroelectric Natural gas
    6 Oregon 62.2% Hydroelectric Natural gas
    7 California 48.2% Hydroelectric Natural gas
    8 Montana 44.7% Hydroelectric Coal
    9 Iowa 43.6% Wind Coal
    10 Kansas 41.7% Wind Coal
    11 Oklahoma 39.1% Wind Natural gas
    12 North Dakota 35.0% Wind Coal
    13 Alaska 29.7% Hydroelectric Natural gas
    14 New York 28.5% Hydroelectric Natural gas
    15 Nevada 28.4% Solar Natural gas
    16 Colorado 24.9% Wind Coal
    17 Minnesota 24.3% Wind Coal
    18 New Mexico 24.2% Wind Coal
    19 Nebraska 23.2% Wind Coal
    20 Texas 18.8% Wind Natural gas
  • The $42 Billion Question: Why Aren’t Americans Ditching Big Banks?
    The average rate on money-market and savings accounts at the five largest banks nearly tripled in the third quarter from where it was in the second
    Trippled, wow. BofA's base savings account rate went up from 0.01% all the way up to ... 0.1%. WSJ is correct; Platinum Honors will quadruple that, to 0.04%.
    https://www.bankofamerica.com/deposits/savings/savings-accounts/
    Platinum Honors at BofA does have merit, but that's not to be found in its savings rates. Rather in its credit card rebates, where one can get as much as 5.25% cash back for keeping $100K in BofA or Merrill (formerly Merrill Edge).
    As to why people don't change banks, bank accounts are very sticky. For some it's because they've been using the same bill payment/checking system for a long time and it's an effort to move. For some it's the hassle of changing direct deposits. For some its physical proximity or ubiquity, especially with large banks that surcharge for foreign ATMs. For a few it may be safe deposit boxes (which are free with Platinum Honors, but relatively few BofA branches still have boxes).
  • Vanguard Quits Net-Zero Alliance
    @sma3 "Texas at least, can claim their economic interests are at stake, although with the huge wind and solar arrays there, they will probably do pretty well with renewable energy. "
    Are you implying Texas has huge solar & wind projects at this time or they could develop them ?
    Texas is the #1 state in wind energy; if it were a separate country, it would be #5 in the world. Wind and solar bailed out the TX grid this summer when it could have collapsed under the heat the state experienced.
    TX wind power
  • The $42 Billion Question: Why Aren’t Americans Ditching Big Banks?
    Americans are missing out on billions of dollars in interest by keeping their savings at the biggest U.S. banks.
    Following are edited excerpts from an article in yesterday's Wall Street Journal. While we here at MFO discuss the merits of CDs which pay 4.85%, huge numbers of fellow Americans are earning next to nothing on their bank deposits.

    The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to their highest level since early 2008. Yet the biggest commercial banks are still paying peanuts to savers. In theory, savers could have earned $42 billion more in interest in the third quarter if they moved their money out of the five largest U.S. banks by deposits to the five highest-yield savings accounts—none of which are offered by the big banks—according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
    The five banks—Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo & Co.—paid an average of 0.4% interest on consumer deposits in savings and money-market accounts during the quarter, according to S&P Global. The five highest-yielding savings accounts paid an average of 2.14% during the same period, according to data from Bankrate.com. These five banks collectively hold about half of all the money kept at U.S. commercial banks in savings and money-market accounts tracked by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. That share has held steady despite the availability of higher rates elsewhere.
    The $42 billion gap in the third quarter was the largest amount since record-keeping began, but will likely be dwarfed in the fourth quarter because top high-yield savings accounts have raised their interest rates to more than 3.5%.
    Since the start of 2019, Americans have lost out on at least $291 billion in interest by keeping their savings in the five biggest banks. That total balloons to $603 billion when going back to 2014, when the FDIC started tracking consumer deposits in money-market and other savings accounts.
    And U.S. savers have likely missed out on much more than $600 billion because the average rate the five biggest banks have paid over the past eight years, 0.24%, includes higher-yielding money-market accounts and some business accounts. Traditional savings accounts paid an average rate of 0.02% at the five largest banks during that period.
    Why haven’t savers moved more of their money? Some customers aren’t aware of how much money they could make by switching, and others just don’t care. Alicia Gillum has been with Bank of America for 26 years and says she has no interest in searching for a new bank, even though her savings of more than $100,000 is earning almost no interest. Her loyalty has earned her Platinum Honors Tier status, which affords her a 0.04% interest rate on her savings instead of the 0.01% rate the bank pays to customers of its basic savings accounts.
    Americans flush with stimulus payments and enhanced unemployment checks flooded U.S. banks with deposits earlier in the pandemic. The biggest banks got an outsize share of those deposits. About $425 billion flowed into money-market and savings accounts at U.S. commercial banks between the first quarter of 2020 and the third quarter of 2022, according to the FDIC. More than 95% of that went to the five largest banks.
    But things could be changing. The average rate on money-market and savings accounts at the five largest banks nearly tripled in the third quarter from where it was in the second. And people are starting to move their money around in other ways to take advantage of higher rates, pouring a record amount into higher-yielding savings vehicles such as Series I savings bonds and Treasury bills this year.
    Wow! "Platinum Honors Tier status" at BofA... Now that's really something!
  • CD Rate update
    My guess is that it is a pause. I think pauses are not unusual just before the Feds make a decision about interest rate hikes, but I fully anticipate the Feds to continue with interest rates, even though they are likely going to be smaller and less frequent. However, I am not anticipating longer term rates of 5 years, to be as high as shorter term rates of less than 2 years. I think there is too much optimisim that this rate hike period will only last another year, and at that time, I suspect shorter term rates will likely settle into a period where they are not rising so fast every few months.
  • Uranium bulls starting??
    https://theoregongroup.com/the-uranium-bull-market-and-the-coming-of-the-second-atomic-age-the-oregon-group-special-report/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=TwitterGeneralNoSubscribe&utm_id=Uranium&twclid=2-447nm4f8viiut65oyg7lbhld2
    Uranium is at the start of a 10-year bull market, according to our new report. The Oregon Group forecasts the uranium market will be positively impacted by a large net increase in global nuclear reactors, which require uranium as fuel.***
    Many yrs bull Uranium??
    Very volatile
    Maybe looking adding more UEC URA or $Urnm maybe 0.5% of portfolio
  • Wanger Select Fund to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/929521/000119312522300645/d426006d497.htm
    497 1 d426006d497.htm WANGER ADVISORS TRUST
    Supplement dated December 8, 2022
    to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (SAI) of the following Fund:
    Fund Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI Dated
    Wanger Advisors Trust
    Wanger Select May 1, 2022
    In December 2022, the Board of Trustees of the Fund, having determined that a reorganization of the Fund was in the best interest of the Fund and its shareholders, voted to approve an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization to reorganize the Fund (the Target Fund) with and into Wanger Acorn (the Acquiring Fund).
    Pursuant to applicable law (including the Investment Company Act of 1940) the reorganization may be implemented without shareholder approval. The reorganization is expected to occur in the second quarter of 2023 and is expected to be a tax-free reorganization for U.S. federal income tax purposes. Additional information about the reorganization will be made available to shareholders in a Combined Information Statement/Prospectus prior to the reorganization date.
    The foregoing is not an offer to sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy, shares of the Acquiring Fund, nor is it a solicitation of any proxy. Because the Target Fund will reorganize into the Acquiring Fund on its reorganization date, you should consider the appropriateness of making a new or subsequent investment in the Target Fund prior to its reorganization date. You should consider the investment objectives, risks, strategies, fees and expenses of the Acquiring Fund and/or the Target Fund carefully before investing. To obtain the Acquiring Fund’s current prospectus, shareholder reports and other regulatory filings, contact your financial intermediary or visit columbiathreadneedleus.com.
    Shareholders should retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/7/22
    For the week ending on 12/7/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (41.8%; high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (24.7%; low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (33.5%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -17.1% (high). Investor concerns: Inflation (high but moderating); supply-chain disruptions; recession (2023); the Fed (slower pace but higher longer); dollar (reversing); crypto winter; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (41+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down sharply, bonds up, oil down sharply, gold up, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=8&scrollTo=863