Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries Sharing on how to import images helps everyone. Here is how I do it on Chrome or Safari browsers:
1. click on the image in the article and it brings up an URL on the browser bar above.
2. copy the URL and paste into the green "picture" icon above
2. Run a preview to make sure the picture is loaded properly.
This works on my desktop and iPad. Enjoy
By the way, I have been buying 13 weeks, 26 weeks and
52 weeks treasury bills as a ladder at auction. Make sure you put in the orders the evening before the auction date. Here is the schedule posted by
@yogibearbull in his earlier post.
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/Tentative-Auction-Schedule.pdfLast week I am late to get the best CDs and purchased only $
500. There are new offerings this week. Treasuries at auction is huge where million $ transactions is common among the professional traders.
Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries @Crash- Pictured below is the imgBB screen that you should see after creating your folder. I've noted (in red) the steps necessary to make an image from that folder available for view on MFO. Note that if you delete that image from your folder it will no longer be seen on MFO either.
And the ability to create graphics like this is exactly why I've wanted something like imgBB.
Thanks again, Yogi!
Can I do a class conversion from PRWCX into TRAIX at Schwab?
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. "IEP units holders are responsible for taxes on the partnership income. Income taxes for certain operating corporations that the partnership controls do pay taxes, if any, at the corporate level. Unit holders receive an annual K-1 Schedule (Form 1065)."
Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries 2 and 3 year non-callable at 4.85 & 4.9 available this morning at Schwab.
Brokerage CD Marketplace at Schwab 2 and 3 year non-callable at 4.85 & 4.9 available this morning at Schwab.
Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. Initiated starter position in IEP at 51.50 following today's ex-div. Always wanted to join Uncle Carl's diversified hedge train; and his son's doing a solid job as his presumptive successor, too.
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/16/22 For the week ending on 11/16/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (40.2%; high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (26.3%; below average); bullish became the middle sentiment (33.
5%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -6.7% (below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (high but moderating); supply-chain disruptions; recession; the Fed; dollar; crypto chaos; divided Congress; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (38+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up strongly, bonds up strongly, oil down, gold up strongly, dollar down sharply. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=8&scrollTo=835
Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
Seafarer Funds’ China Analysis And now for a potential China "bull case"...
The following excerpt is from the 'Points of Return' newsletter (John Authers) published today.
That leads to a final question: Why would anyone be bullish about China at present? Its problems are evident, and most international investors will justifiably hate the current political direction. Andy Rothman, investment strategist and veteran China-watcher at Matthews Asia, agrees that watching for progress on Covid Zero, and particularly for a pickup in vaccination rates, which have been falling, is most important. Providing the country can find a way out of lockdowns, he offers the following “bull case” for 2023:
China is likely to remain the only major economy engaged in serious easing, while much of the world is tightening.
Chinese households have been in savings mode since the start of the pandemic, with family bank account balances up 42% from the beginning of 2020.
Those funds should fuel a consumer rebound, and an A-share recovery, as domestic investors hold about 95% of that market.
I've been following Andy since his days at CLSA. I'm a fan of his story telling. However, he's lost a lot of credability over the years. When have you EVER heard Andy NOT be BULLISH on China? There is optimism...and there is being biased or saying what you want to happen. Andy has become much more the latter.
Plus...he now works for Matthews, which has a vested interest in saying "China is a great asset class". Perhaps the combo of Andy being now at Matthews makes me more skeptical (plus, Matthews has had a mass exodus of portfolio management talent...yet Andy for some reason stays).
Andy has to change things up every once in awhile or he sounds like a biased broken record.
2022 year-end capital gains distribution estimates (Vanguard's Final estimated year-end posted)
RPHIX vs US Treasuries vs CDs I could easily imagine a 5% or 6% return for this fund over the next year.
A reasonable person could conclude that that's what those yield figures, in black and white, are intended to suggest, at the very least. If they do not in fact come to pass . . . .
Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
RPHIX vs US Treasuries vs CDs It is impossible to extrapolate completely as you said, but given that interest rates went from 3% at the end of September when this last shareholder letter came out to 4% on November 2, it is probable that the yield on this fund will be increasing in the short-term as that dry powder debt matures and new higher yielding debt is purchased. Even if high yield credit spreads are narrowing, unless they've narrowed more than the Fed's increase, the absolute yield will still rise. But this is of course just a temporary projection. It is quite different from locking in a yield with a CD or buying an individual fixed rate bond. All of that said, barring any defaults in the portfolio, I could easily imagine a 5% or 6% return for this fund over the next year.
RPHIX vs US Treasuries vs CDs About 1% less dry power than in 1Q22 or 2Q22. See p.
5 in the 2Q22 commentary:
https://riverparkfunds.com/assets/pdfs/rpsthyf/commentary/RiverPark-Cohanzick_2Q22_Shareholder_Letter.pdfIt is risky to project out the yields (though I did that by quoting SEC yields), because all this "dry powder" will vanish within 90 days. The question is what replaces it? Another risk in reading too much into these numbers is described in the footnote of that 2Q22 report:
The “dry powder” category includes securities such as called bonds and debt maturing in less than 30 days. Called or maturing bonds with an ultra-short period to redemption may provide a misleading representation of portfolio metrics due to the potential large impact on yields from minor pricing variances versus the upcoming redemption price. Investments represent a snapshot of a specific point in time and may not reflect future positioning.
Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries there is USBank 4.58% 3 year CD non-callable. Several other 3 years CDs, but all callable
I skimmed through the other bonds
Almost all either corporate CDs etc being offered at Schwab are callable.
Maybe the "smart money" assumes that interest rates are going down in 2 to 4 years.
Maybe better off in longer term treasuries even though yield worse. Have to do the math to make sure.
