FUNDS. Many STAR MANAGERS who leave for other firms, or form their own firms, don’t succeed as well (JUCAX with Bill Gross was a classic disaster). The reason may be the vast analyst, research and data support systems that they relied on at their old firms. Almost 42% of these managers didn’t even last 5 years at their new firms; the startup costs at their own firms may be high. Many firms now use multi-manager team model that reduces the impact of anyone leaving. Notable exceptions/successes include GQGPX with Rajiv Jain (and Jefferey Gundlach who succeeded with DoubleLine against all odds; notably, Howard Marks underwrote most of the initial setup costs). (By
@lewisbraham at MFO)
Many fund companies (BLK, IVZ, WT, Fidelity, etc) are flooding the SEC with new SPOT-CRYPTO ETFs and daring it to reject them all – while there are noises in the DC about GENSLER’s/SEC approach, and in a recent ongoing court case SEC vs XRP/Ripple, the judge wasn’t very sympathetic to the SEC arguments or its general approach to securities regulations. BlackRock’s/BLK spot-crypto approach is novel in that it will use Coinbase/COIN trading platform, but the Nasdaq/NDAQ exchange will provide assistance for detecting fraud, manipulation, etc. BlackRock has had 576 ETFs approved with only
1 rejection, so, will its spot-crypto ETFs be its 2nd rejection, or does it know something that others don’t? Anyway, several other filers have also adjusted their spot-crypto ETF filings in a way similar to BlackRock. On another front, Fidelity, Schwab, etc are developing an alternate crypto exchange that is modelled after traditional US exchanges. (One thought is that the SEC suddenly throws in the towel by saying that this crypto stuff has now sufficiently matured, or Gensler is just dumped).
An insightful Q&A:
Louis-Vincent GAVE, Gavekal Research. There are huge GEOPOLITICAL shifts going on in Europe, Asia, Middle East. It’s astounding that the peace deal between SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN has been brokered by CHINA (!) – this is like the peace between France and Germany after WWII, and possibly, a future peace between China and India. For China, an immense benefit will be a land pipeline from Saudi Arabia to Iran to ? to China. The possibility of a US/Western oil shipment embargo for China during any conflict with the US has spooked China. Then, there is this new DOLLAR DIPLOMACY that is causing gradual but steady shift away from dollar-trading and dollar-reserves into local/regional currencies. The dollar index (based on a fixed currency basket) is outdated – many already use trade-weighted dollar. The EMs ex-China are actually booming now, but the EM indexes are held back by the heavy weight from lagging China. Forget AI and Nasdaq, the markets in Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico have outperformed. It still isn’t too late to participate as the EMs are under-owned and most US investors have sworn off the non-US markets. Nothing against AI, but AI will also be huge in EMs, and people would find better/cheaper alternatives to overpriced MSFT, NVDA, etc.
JAPAN is finally changing – it has inflation and rising rates and there will be a massive shift from bonds to equities. But it will be very volatile near-term (it is said that Japan is the most cyclical among the global markets). CHINA has lagged because it didn’t have huge stimuluses during the pandemic and its Covid problems are hardly over. But that is changing. Soon, the world may wake up to the day when Chinese global auto exports will exceed those by Japan. President Xi Jinping has to realize that China’s future lies in the tech sector and everything else will be secondary (economic growth, domestic consumption, etc) (with his power assured, he may flip on policy easily). Many Chinese stocks have sold off sharply, are under-owned, but have huge future potential.
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