For the week ending on 9/7/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (53.3%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (18.1%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (28.7%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -35.2% (very low). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (28+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were mixed (in spite of a big improvement on Wednesday), bonds down, oil down sharply (again), gold flat, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=771
Bearish sentiment has been very high in 2022 (Twitter LINK) as this bar chart of the annual average of bearish sentiment (YTD to 9/3/22) shows https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fbw77yWX0AAfcjg?format=png&name=900x900

I disagree a bit with the above analysis. ISTM what we’re witnessing with the reputed demise of the 60/40 is more of an abnormality - a “transitory” condition (to borrow a phrase). But that’s only my best guess. Further, I’ll side with Twain on the question: “Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”
This writer provides a lot of thoughtful analysis in the “free” version of his commentary, while hoping you’ll subscribe to the paid edition. I’m saddened to hear TR hasn’t performed well. Really enjoyed those things when I was about 5.
“The sad truth is that Tootsie Roll’s business hasn’t done very well in recent years. It’s been mostly flat. The company has issued 3% stock dividends each year for the last several years. (That’s effectively a 103-to-100 stock split.)”
I’m thinking demographics have a lot to do with the problem. I don’t see many of my acquaintances in the 75-90 year age group munching on tootsie rolls. In fact, if missing some teeth it seems to me they would be hard to chew. Might choke on one.

Dunno. I added about 5 more trackers this morning. Figure if 2 agree on something it’s probably about right. Agree there are different reporting periods. And some aren’t up to date. Still, the difference here is concerning. Fido is great on mutual funds. I trust their numbers. But they don’t seem to have much performance history on ETFs.
Thanks @rsorden / @Mark for the extra digging!

The late summer stall is now turning into something substantial. In 14 trading days, the S&P 500 has given back 9.22% which is more than half of what it gained in the previous two months. As I’ve said, all bear market rallies should be assumed to be phony until proven otherwise.
The big battle on Wall Street right now is for what the Fed will do at its meeting later this month. Some traders expect a 0.5% rate hike while others think it will be 0.75%. Thanks to Powell’s “pain” comment in Jackson Hole, the 0.75% crowd has the upper hand. Still, the jobs report gave the 0.5% hike faithful some ammo. My take is that we should listen to Powell. There’s going to be more pain ahead.
The 60/40 Portfolio?
The culprit isn’t hard to find. It’s inflation. Inflation acts like kryptonite to financial markets. This means that the two elements of the 60/40 portfolio aren’t balancing each other out. Both are down. Higher prices have caused bonds to fall. Plus, the Fed’s response to inflation has led stocks to fall.

cws-market-review-september-6-2022

All are probably for different reporting periods...
Yahoo 7.27% is 1 year thru 3/31
M* -9.5% is correct
Fund site -8.74% is thru 6/30

good call. wow. ... wtf, right? marketwatch shows 1-year down -9.5%. matches morningstar.
the fund family's own webpage shows the fund is down for 1-year by -8.74%.
https://www.permanentportfoliofunds.com/permanent-portfolio.html

No idea. FWIW the WSJ, Barron's and MarketWatch all show -8.95% 1-yr return.

How can the reported results for PRPFX for 1 year be so radically different?
CNBC -5.73% 1 year
Yahoo +7.27% 1 year
M* -9.50% 1 year

Lana'i is PRIVATELY owned by ..... Larry Ellison.
"As of 2012, the island was 98% owned by Larry Ellison, co-founder and chairman of Oracle Corporation; the remaining 2% is owned by the state of Hawaii or is privately owned homes. Lanai is a roughly apostrophe-shaped island with a width of 18 miles (29 km) in the longest direction."
Ni'ihau:
"Niihau is the only place left in the world where the predominant language is Hawaiian. About 250 natives live on the 73-square-mile island, most working on the Robinsons' cattle and sheep ranch. Guns, alcohol and cigarettes are forbidden. There is no doctor, no jail, no paved roads."
Kahoolawe:
"Why is no one allowed on Kahoolawe?
Access to the Reserve (the island and the 2 miles of ocean surrounding Kaho'olawe) is restricted because of the continued danger of unexploded ordnance. Access to the Reserve is permitted only with authorization of KIRC for specific purposes, such as restoration, education, and culture."
@Old_Joe: your suggestion is certainly conceivable. Maybe a nightmare to try to implement. There was a huge protest about erecting the new and improved telescope up on Mauna Kea, lasting YEARS. How many other "sacred" native Hawaiian locations might be invented, or uncovered?
I've not visited the other islands, but there's a big wind-farm on the way up to the North Shore of Oahu. And Oahu is about 600 square miles in size. That's about the same size as Zanzibar.

For those like myself who are into breadth thrusts market action has been disappointing since the recent highs. Still the S@P is some 275 points above its June bear market lows. Bearishness is rampant again. We have two big events this month with the PPI next week and the Fed in two weeks. Either one could send stocks higher again. And by some measures it has become historically oversold the past few weeks.
I can talk politics because I dislike Biden almost as much as Trump who is the worst of the worst. But it is absolutely shocking to see polls showing the Dems may hold the House in November. Biden or whoever has done a masterful job coming back from the depths. Everything seems to be going the Dems way lately so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the market in strong rally mode between now and November for whatever reason. - inflation peaking, hints of a Fed pivoting, or whatever. Personally would love to see new and much deeper market lows but the market rarely accommodates my wishes,
Edit. FWIW, just saw this stat on Twitter from Michael Antonelli - the S@P has never been negative in the 12 months following a mid term election since 1946. That is 18 occurrences and an average yearly gain of 15.1%

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-ackman-says-stocks-will-soon-be-a-buy-now-that-the-fed-is-doing-what-it-has-to-do-to-fight-inflation-11662474823?mod=home-page
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/bill-ackman-outlines-when-the-buy-signal-for-stocks-will-come.html
Pershing Square Capital Management’s billionaire founder Bill Ackman shared some commentary about markets and the U.S. economy. Ackman: ‘Once people realize the Fed doesn’t have to keep increasing rates and will soon take rates down…that will be a buy signal for markets’
Ackman expects inflation to fall to 4%, if not 3.5%, from a peak of 9.1% in June. “Our biggest fear was inflation, and that’s why we wanted the Fed to raise interest rates,” he says. Once investors recognize the Fed as winning its battle against inflation, Ackman expects stocks to rebound.
As of the end of June, Pershing Square’s portfolio consisted of concentrated bets on Lowes Inc. and NFLX. The S&P 500 SPX, NFLX, and Lowes are among the stocks Ackman has bet on this year. Ackman said he hasn't changed much since the beginning of the year.***
Maybe good insights from Mr Ackman
9.13 maybe key date w CPI data, if improve fundamentals improve going forward
Right now I am sidelines waiting few wks months for now
Late fall mid winters maybe good time if Feds may start pivot /ease Qt

It will bottom after 95% of individual “Mom & Pop” type investors have sold everything and moved to cash.
Never fails.

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1797657/david-rosenberg-dont-buy-the-dips-yet
https://www.google.com/search?q=David+Rosenberg+gurufocus&client=ms-android-samsung-gs-rev1&sxsrf=ALiCzsYFJO1AaxY_SrQkhIu9olh7hnxKGg:1662463608989&ei=eC4XY8GBPJ7m5NoP_KSIqAo&oq=David+Rosenberg+gurufocus&gs_lcp=ChNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwEAMyBQghEKABOgcIABBHELADOgQIIxAnOgsIABCABBCxAxCDAToFCAAQgAQ6CAgAEIAEELEDOgYIABAeEBY6BQgAEIYDOgUIABCiBDoHCAAQHhCiBEoECEEYAFCUK1iIkAFgypQBaAFwAXgAgAG1AYgBoxKSAQQ4LjEzmAEAoAEByAEIwAEB&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp
He seems very good, very knowledgeable, he expect sp500 bottom near 3100 during this bear market

I thought it already happened HERE

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/where-will-the-bear-market-bottom-history-offers-a-very-clear-clue
You probably don't need me to tell you this, but 2022 has been one of the most challenging years on record for everyone from Wall Street professionals to everyday investors. The first half of the year saw the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), which is the broadest barometer of stock-market health, produce its worst return in 52 years. The growth-dependent Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) fared even worse, with the index losing as much as a third of its value on a peak-to-trough basis.
Very thoughtful insights/discussion
Nobody really know for sure
Could be lots pain 3 5 monrhs

They cut him short on cnbc
Saw clips he say tsla spacex 3x 4x in 4 5 yrs

@Catch22

“[Red Notice] does for investing in Russia and the former Soviet Union what Liar’s Poker did for our understanding of Salomon Brothers, Wall Street, and the mortgage-backed securities business in the 1980s. Browder’s business saga meshes well with the story of corruption and murder in Vladimir Putin’s Russia, making Red Notice an early candidate for any list of the year’s best books” (Fortune).

and

Following his explosive New York Times bestseller Red Notice, Bill Browder returns with another gripping thriller chronicling how he became Vladimir Putin’s number one enemy by exposing Putin’s campaign to steal and launder hundreds of billions of dollars and kill anyone who stands in his way.

A Deeper Interview:

billbrowder.com/

Adding to @orage comment on The Shadow’s Sept’s Commentary:

A whole series of Direxion ETFs, some modestly silly and others just very badly out-of-step with the market, hence unattractive to fickle investors, will be liquidated on September 23, 2022.
Direxion Daily Cloud Computing Bear 2X Shares (CLDS)
Direxion Daily 5G Communications Bull 2X Shares (TENG)
Direxion Russell 1000® Growth Over Value ETF (RWGV)
Direxion Russell 1000® Value Over Growth ETF (RWVG)
Direxion World Without Waste ETF (WWOW)
Direxion Fallen Knives ETF (NIFE)
Direxion Low Priced Stock ETF (LOPX)

RPIEX. 69% cash. Ta-gooch?????????

This was discussed in another thread. High derivative exposure explains high cash position. https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/152561/#Comment_152561

Global bond manager Jack McIntyre says central banks around the world are determined to stamp out inflation. Their success will determine the direction of markets and economies. He explains how he is investing for several outcomes.

Investments During a Period of Stagflation:

Stagflation is a period of economic stagnation combined with high inflation. When the economy stagnates, growth slows and unemployment rises. Demand for goods and services may decline as income levels drop. That in itself is bad enough but high inflation compounds the problem, as the income that people do have doesn’t go as far since prices are higher.

https://smartasset.com/investing/how-to-invest-during-stagflation
For a Global Bond choices, RPIEX, looks interesting
MFO Discussion Linked here:
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/152569/#Comment_152569