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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
    I am less sure this is just about crypto, but more about simple fraud.
    it seems SBF used customers assets in the non-US subsidiary as margin for shaky investments in FTT etc, and then CZ pulled the plug on FTT but dumping his entire position. CZ may not have known that FTX and Alameda was so heavily margined against customer's assets, but found out when SBF came begging for rescue.
    US security laws and regulations prevent brokerages from using customer's assets for their own purposes, so it is unlikely without a non-US subsidiary, this would have blown up so spectacularly.
    I had a friend whose son had "a couple of million dollars worth " in Bitcoin on a thumb drive locked in a safe deposit box when Bitcoin was $15000 in 2018. He said the kid was sure it would soon hit $200,000 a "coin" and they could buy a nice yacht.
    I never heard if the kid sold it.
  • Any reason for 401K/403B rollover to T-IRA be a segregated account
    " complications in bankruptcy or lawsuits."
    Federal protection extends only to bankruptcy proceedings, not to creditor lawsuits. To understand this, it helps to see where protections come from.
    Protection of money in employer sponsored plans comes from ERISA, which has a virtually ironclad antialienation provision. That means that you cannot pledge or have taken from you any money within the retirement plan for almost any reason.
    Protection of rollover money in an IRA comes from the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 (BAPCPA). As one might gather from its name, this protection applies only if you declare bankruptcy. It doesn't protect IRAs in "regular" creditor lawsuits.
    For "lawyerly type" readers, here's a remarkably clear and concise page (just 4 paragraphs plus a couple more sentences) from a law firm saying much the same thing.
    Outside of bankruptcy, traditional contributory IRAs and Roth IRAs and inherited IRAs, have protection only under state law.
    https://www.rosenblattlawfirm.com/blog-post/creditor-protection-of-retirement-plan-assets/
    (The bankruptcy protection applies to all forms of IRAs, not just T-IRAs.)
    With respect to keeping rollover money segregated for bankruptcy protection, it may help but it isn't a cure-all. "Rollover IRA" is just a label for convenience. One can add contributory money to a "rollover IRA" without the IRA custodian removing that label. So if a creditor comes after your assets, it might still challenge your assertion that the rollover IRA contains only rollover money.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    A bit late, but if you want to look at some prior week numbers. Various contributors here have expressed reasons for lower yields last week. Lower CPI may have been largest push for lower yields, but; not unlike the markets in general, the bond area will remain in FLUX. The FED will play with the numbers to choose their path going forward, relative to rate increases.
    MANY bond areas had large one week positive pricing moves, so one made money in the pricing area.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated report in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    For the WEEK/YTD, November 7- November 11, 2022
    --- AGG = + 2.3% / -13.9% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = + .024% / -1.9% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.69% / -4.2% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = + 1.78% / -9.8% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = + 2.7% / -15.4% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = + 1.7% / -12.7% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = + ,64% / -4.5% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = + 4.3% / -32% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = + 3.9% / -33% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = + 4.8% / -41% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = + 4.6% / -43% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = - 7.6% / +103% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = + 11.3% / -74% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = + 2,26% / -14.9% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = + 2.13% / -10.9% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = + 5.4% / -19.1% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 3.75% yield, Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
    @Roy, simple explanations can be dangerous. But even with that risk, let me try.
    Tokens are like prepaid store cards or chips on cruises/casinos. There are hundreds of unregulated crypto exchanges and most have their own tokens. That is what FTT was for the crypto exchange FTX (and its related market-maker Alameda). One uses some cryptos to buy exchange tokens (FTT in case of FTX). To promote their tokens, crypto exchanges offer great deals, discounts, favors.
    But at some point, one wants to get off the train and change the tokens back into cryptos or dollars. But what happens if there is a crisis of confidence and tokens become almost worthless? You cannot trade them, and the "house" won't/cannot honor them. The trigger here was (Mr) CZ of Binance who was an early investor in FTX and received lots of FTTs for his stake in FTX. He got upset by something that (Mr) SBF of FTX did or said and CZ threatened to sell $500+ million in FTTs that he had. Well, that crashed FTT, FTX, Alameda, BlockFi (that FTX was in the process of acquiring), and a few others that we haven't heard about it yet (this situation is still unfolding).
    Amazing that in something touted as DeFi (decentralized finance), 2 guys that most haven't heard of before could cause so much damage.
    At the time of Enron collapse, my wife asked why did it matter to her or general public? She worked at a national store chain. I tried to explain that imagine 100s of stores like hers just vanishing overnight - buildings, stuff, inventory. And that kind of loss can impact EVERYBODY and it did.
    Here too, whether one is in crypto or not, disappearance $125+ billions (industrywide loss est) will have an impact on EVERYBODY. For perspective, in a decent IPO year, startups raise $50+ billion in a year and that leads to good markets (a great year like 2021 has $142.4 billion IPOs, a terrible year like 2022 YTD only $7.6 billion). This crypto crash is going in reverse by draining money - industrywide, $125 billion gone!
  • Brokerage CD Marketplace at Schwab
    The other advantage of treasuries is liquidity, so that you can go sell readily in secondary market if you need cash. Also you can buy lots of them in auction or in secondary market.
    One can also build a treasury ladder with 13 week, 26 week and 52 weeks treasury bills with your favorite brokerages. Funds will be available every 3 months as the treasury matures. As the rate get higher you can buy a new treasury bill at a higher rate.
    If you want flexible, have enough cash aside in money market funds that are yielding a respectable 3.2% with Fidelity and Vanguard.
  • Brokerage CD Marketplace at Schwab
    Greatly diminished choices and longer maturities have gone away. Because of Bank holiday or a tipping point in rate expectations? Same at Fido and Vanguard?
    Let's think about it.
    1) Inflation is much higher than CD. You lose money.
    2) High inflation most likely will go down, 1-2 years from now. This is why you can't get CD for 10 years. I see 5 years at 4.95%. Good chance, it will be higher than inflation in a few years.
    3) Short term is the sweet spot at 3 months. Treasuries are better, they pay more than CD and you don't pay Fed taxes in a taxable account. It's also easier to buy big amounts. This allows you to invest later in bond funds with a good possibility to make 10+% from the bottom (maybe in already) in 12-18 months after rates will stop going up. Remember, bonds have one of the worst first 6 months in history and a good chance to recoup all their losses.
    4) I don't like to lock my money for even 3 months as a bond OEF trader. I traded several times in 2022 successfully, and a good trade can come any day. MM paying over 3.7% or more is pretty good too.
  • Charlie Bilello - The Week in Charts
    I haven't seen many references to Charlie Bilello here.
    He analyzes various economic/financial charts in "The Week in Charts" blog.
    I've found Mr. Bilello's commentary to be very informative.
    There is also a YouTube channel where corresponding videos are posted.
    Blog
    Video
  • Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
    CRYPTO Intrigue and Crash. It started with a Twitter spat between Sam Bankman-Fried “SBF”/FTX and Changpeng Zhao “CZ”/Binance. There were prior frictions from SBF’s closeness to the DC lawmakers, his push for a crypto legislation that was disliked by the crypto industry, his flamboyance, and his MIT connections. Someone leaked Alameda Research balance sheet that held lots of FTX token FTT and had other issues involving self-dealings between FTX and Alameda. CZ threatened to sell Binance’s entire FTT holding (about a half-billion dollars, a lot but not really that much), and a run on FTT and FTX (international) began. Ironically, SBF asked CZ for a rescue, and initially CZ agreed to do that for a song ($1 + FTX liabilities), but then withdrew a day later upon due diligence (some say that CZ was never serious about the rescue and was really going for the final kill). Then, SBF tried to patch up a $8-10 billion hole by raising new funds from his investors/supporters, but by now, SBF, FTX and Alameda were damaged goods (especially after CZ pulled out of the rescue saying that situation was hopeless and beyond what he/Binance could do). So, SBF filed for bankruptcy for FTX and 130 related entities, and surprising, that also including FTX-US (it was previously thought that the problem was with FTX-International only). The $32 billion empire of 30-yr old SBF (and his personal net worth of $16 billion) collapsed within a week (literally, within hours) causing $125 billion in estimated losses in the crypto industry. Regulators all over the globe moved in to freeze FTX assets. In the US, the SEC, CFTC, WH and Congress are looking at this fiasco. The full extent of this crypto contagion is yet to be determined/felt. The US-listed Coinbase/COIN was not involved in this mess, but its stock also suffered. (News on Saturday morning is that SBF may have fled from Bahamas to Argentina)
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/ftx-binance-sam-bankman-fried-crypto-bitcoin-solana-price-crash-51668135110?mod=past_editions
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/362/barron-november-14-2022-2
  • Timely Tax Ideas from Barron's This Week
    Another follow up,
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/market-losses-reduce-capital-gains-tax-51668037376?mod=past_editions
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/362/barron-november-14-2022-2
    TAX STRATEGIES. Use tax-loss harvesting (TLH) this year for benefits in future years. Tax-loss CARRYFORWARDS don’t expire and can be used to offset future gains and up to $3,000/yr in ordinary income from net losses. Beware of WASH-SALE rule (to avoid +/- 30 day window for transactions). Use DOUBLE-UP strategy (buy to double position by November 29, sell the older lot on December 30, the last trading day of 2022), OR swap with something SIMILAR but not identical right away (easily possible with so many OEFs and ETFs). REINVESTING may cause small disallowances due to wash-sale, but they don’t spoil the entire TLH; one can also discontinue reinvestments to avoid this issue. With large declines in both stocks and bonds, consider TLH for all types of funds (stocks, bonds, hybrids). If you have losses in CRYPTOS, note that wash-sale rules don’t apply (but the IRS may not like immediate buys/sells). OTHER strategies: Delay/SHIFT income to lower tax years; use annual GIFTS of up to $16K/yr/person (2022), $17K/yr/person (2023) to avoid filing the Form 709 (complicated, but also doable); ROTH CONVERSIONS (immediate tax hit, but withdrawals are tax-free in retirement and no RMDs); CHARITABLE contributions.
  • Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
    @ Rono. What in the world are you talking about ? You find something off putting about SBF’s appearance? Like what? And what does it have to do with anything? Such a 45 thing to do.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Nov 12th Episode
    As the markets fluctuate around us, how much should investors change?
    This week’s guest has his own historical perspective on that question because he has lived through a momentous evolution in the markets. He is Charles Ellis, whose storied career started on Wall Street in 1963 after graduating from the Harvard Business School. He was a skeptical analyst during the go-go years of the 60s and founded Greenwich Associates, the top Wall Street consulting firm to major investment firms, institutions, and governments.
    He was an influential board member of Yale’s endowment advising its legendary head, David Swensen. He’s taught advanced investment courses at both Yale and Harvard. And he has authored 20 investment books, including the classic, Winning the Loser’s Game, now in its 8th edition, and the recently published Figuring It Out: Sixty Years of Answering Investors’ Most Important Questions, which we will discuss in this week’s exclusive TV interview.
    In the first of a two-part interview, Ellis will discuss the most significant changes that have occurred in the markets and what they mean for investors.


  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    Nov. 11 edition here.
    All three guests think the peak yield this year for the 10y Treasury is already in, and agree with the consensus of a 50 bp Fed rate rise in December. Some talk of scaling back expectations a bit for the presumed Fed's terminal hiking cycle rate ...
  • Brokerage CD Marketplace at Schwab
    Panic buying to lock in attractive rates for next 2-5 years;another version of Fear Of Missing Out !
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    among the stocks which I saw soar yesterday, post-CPI report, is CAE. (Montreal. provides simulation-training equipment. Civil and military pilots, for example. Also, medical stuff.) I noted it was up over 20%. Today, the day after, it's not pulling back like most I've seen. It's up 2.55%.
    I've got a limit order in for Jerash Holdings. JRSH. They make sportswear, stylish casual clothes for some famous brands you'll see in the stores. I'm alert re: my junk bond fund, TUHYX. And NHYDY is on a tear. On fire. It can't last, going forward, but I'm not selling. Too early. Much. Still no decision i can find re: a ban on Russian aluminum.
  • Brokerage CD Marketplace at Schwab
    Same at Fido. Hopefully issuers come back with longer dated CDs next week.
    Next Fed rate increase (50bp?) is not until Dec. 14th.
  • Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
    I heard his net worth went from 35 billion to zero in last month
    And it looks like poor little Tom Brady got hit too. That's what he gets for dumping Giselle. Imagine telling your wife and the mother of (some) of your children like that "I would rather play football"?
    I wonder if Bridget Monahan is laughing?
  • Nice Gain for T Rowe Price (TROW)
    Don't forget to re-invest the 4.48% dividend each month.
    4.4 share of McDonald's purchased at its IPO (1965):
    if-you-had-invested-100-in-mcdonalds-ipo-heres-how
    The math isn't as simple as taking the stock's return since the IPO date. First, we have to account for the many stock splits that McDonald's has announced over the years. A $100 investment would have yielded you 4.4 shares based on the initial price of $22.50, but McDonald's has performed 12 stock splits that cumulatively expanded share counts by a factor of 729. In other words, your initial 4.4-share holding would have grown to 3,208 shares over the decades. Based on that expanded share total, we can determine the value of your IPO investment, which would be $622,352 based on McDonald's recent closing price in early December 2019 of $194 per share.
    There's another element that's at least as important as those stock split adjustments, and that's dividends. McDonald's is a Dividend Aristocrat, having paid and increased its dividend in each of the last 39 years. Dividend reinvestment is a fantastic way to supercharge your returns over long time frames, and that phenomenon is certainly true in this case.
    Maybe we need to get our great grand kids to consider this strategy since they may have the time to allow for the necessary compounding.
    That was a very strong one day jump...nice feeling!
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Giroux's recent reduction in his GE position may have been well timed (or not). GE has done fine lately with the rebound in cyclicals.
    IMO, with the Nasdaq and crypto crashes (and money just vanishing like poof), investors may be shifting to more tangible stuff - old line cyclicals and commodities. Dollar has also fallen sharply from its recent highs (it is still high) but some had said to watch for trend change if DXY breaks 108 and it is doing that TODAY.
    GE https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60245353998
    DXY https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DX-Y.NYB?p=DX-Y.NYB