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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Adanis empire lost 51 billions in 48 hrs
    It looks like he will send anyone who asks his reports. I signed up just for kicks, not that I short stocks.
    The date on this one on his web site is 1/24, although I don't know when the email went out. The stock didn't start down for a couple of days.
    It will be interesting to see what happens to his next target.
    His previous target, WELL, has gone up not down
  • media economy coverage
    @LewisBraham
    Thank you for your kind response and discussion.
    America's tortured history of race indeed should be discussed in schools at all levels, including discussions about the motivations of slaveholders in the Revolution.
    But I am trying to make the point that the approach to subjects like these needs to be done in a very careful, well researched manner that will encourage the people whose minds are perhaps still a little open to participate in the discussion.
    By that I mean extreme care should be taken to avoid statements and opinions that either political extreme can pick up and run with, such as "one of the primary reasons ... was because they wanted to protect the institution of slavery".
    But I don't think extreme care was taken in the lead 1619 essay. Professor Leslie Harris was asked to fact check the essay before they published it and warned Hannah-Jones and the NYT this statement was inaccurate
    "On August 19 of last year I listened in stunned silence as Nikole Hannah-Jones, a reporter for the New York Times, repeated an idea that I had vigorously argued against with her fact-checker: that the patriots fought the American Revolution in large part to preserve slavery in North America."
    (The quote comes from the article below which is also a good summary of the rapid increase in the last 30 years in American Historical scholarship on slavery, which Harris applauds and has been part of and claims that Gordon Wood has not)
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/06/1619-project-new-york-times-mistake-122248
    The NYT eventually backed down, sorta, " We stand behind the basic point, which is that among the various motivations that drove the patriots toward independence was a concern that the British would seek or were already seeking to disrupt in various ways the entrenched system of American slavery". Not very convincing is it?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/magazine/an-update-to-the-1619-project.html
    I do not really know the NYT editors motivation in publishing the original statement, but ideology certainly seems to have payed a part, rather than a rigorous search for the truth.
    The right wing has unfortunately used this to ban 1619 books, and now AP courses in African American history ( which does include sections that some parents would find inappropriate for high school), and now a few people and one right wing foundation are attempting to muzzle basic support for diverse viewpoints and LGBT people in any school n Michigan, because state law allows parents to opt their child out of "sex education".
    https://popular.info/p/inside-the-audacious-new-scheme-to
    You should look at it "Judd at popular information" on Substack, He does an immense amount of work tracking down dark money supporting these legislative movements, and tracks corporations spending on politics very carefully. Most corporations claim they support equal rights for women, LGBT, and election integrity but give lots of money to election deniers, and bigots. Their money has clearly been a major source of the divisive poisonous political atmosphere we find ourselves in.
    It is unclear to me why US corporations believe that fostering these political confrontations will be positive in the long run or good for their business. I assume they are too scared not to cough up the cash, after seeing what happened to Disney in Florida.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Too hot, too cold; or ??? GDP relatively strong, employment numbers, inflation data at the input and consumer levels, and any other gauges watched by the FED and the 'pundits' bring different perspectives and suggestions of where to invest or what the near future will bring. As I/we don't know who is buying what or for which reason(s); I will have to remain with watching and discovering price actions with bond sectors. This doesn't really provide a proper reason to want to buy bonds now; BUT I remain inclined to have a favorable view for 2023 so far. Some folks are chasing yields wherever they find them; as the FED has continued rate increases. If the yields come from bond funds, vs MMKT; AND the FED does slow the rate increases for the next several months, then the bond fund investor should benefit from a bond price increase lending to a better return on the investment. I'm not able to have a 10 year projection, as is the case with some; so our portfolio is always subject to some changes. Our investment boat tends to be slow moving; without a lot of trading, as we no longer have the time or inclination for this activity. Dollar Cost Averaging and time (compounding) remains the best investing friend for most; including bond area participation.
    Tuesday, mid-day. Equity down a bit, and IG bonds acted more traditional with yields down/prices up.
    Bond yields looking forward relative to layoffs, too ??? Perhaps part of an answer.
    Scroll down in linked pages below for affected companies.
    2022, U.S. Corp. layoffs
    2023 U.S. Corp. layoffs, near dated
    $U.S. value inflection point relative to both equity and bond rallies near the October 25 time frame. One would think there are other forces in play; but this may be a piece of the pie.
    Relative to the below performance info for this week: Most bond returns in the list were positive this week. Several bond sectors remain with YTD returns as good as, or better than some U.S. equity sectors.
    *** I was away much of the week and weekend; so not very much input.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    ---Several selected bond funds returns since October 25, 2022. I'll retain this date, as it is a recent inflection point when bonds began to have positive price moves. We'll need to watch if this was just a 'blip'.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, January 23 - January 27, 2023
    ***** AGAIN, this week, FZDXX, MMKT yield has remained at 4.27/8% for one month. The core Fidelity MMKT's have continued a slow creep upward to about 3.95%. The holdings of these different funds account for the variances at this time.
    --- AGG = -.01% / +3.2% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.11% / +.78% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.06% / +.69% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.2% / +1.96% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -.15% / +3.4% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.45% / +2.54% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = +.15% / +.86% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = +.14% / +.92% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +.2% / +7.55% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +.48% / +7.2% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +1.1% / +9.8% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +1.2 / +10.1% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -.9% / -13.1% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +1.2% / +21% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = +.2% / +3.23% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = -.01% / +3.44% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = -.05% / +4.81% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 4.28% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. The rate of rise in the yield remained flat again this week, but not decreasing.

    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • media economy coverage
    +1 This article describes Springfield, OH, I believe.
  • media economy coverage
    If I were still teaching high school, but now in magaland, this would be about the only kind of material examples possible, but then, it's still about all you need to know:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/12/06/black-couple-home-value-white-washing/
    Possibly, if I was careful, I could add in material about the very neighborhood whither I moved at age 7 and grew up in thereafter, until heading East for college, the project of the father of redlining, whose work is here very gently described:
    tinyurl.com/56bh3hfk
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    K-1s normally come in late-March or early-April, so any early filing is out.
    They need more forms. Brokerage 1099 reports are not reliable but one has to use some info from 1099 and other from K-1.
    I dealt with K-1 for years, so it's a doable mess. But I am now K-1 free and I sleep better.
    This will be my first year with a K-1. (ET, Energy Transfer.) So, my brokerage provides a 1099? But somehow, that is incomplete? I am aware, per the TRP website, that the required K-1 must come directly from the company I'm invested in..... But somehow, both forms must be included with the tax return?
    What GENIUS is in charge of this crap?
    I am considering another: it's an oil royalty trust with TWO (count 'em!) employees, and an official HQ address out of the quaint town of Keene, New Hampshire. But nowhere on their website do they mention a K-1. Nor do they refer to themselves as a Limited Partnership. It's squishy. The website explains that specific information for tax filing will be sent with a year-end report. But no official IRS form number. The info comes in a "letter."
    NRT. http://www.neort.com/
    .....Fun and games. But the profits MIGHT be worth the trouble? My tax guy is the one who will have to worry about it all, anyhow. And with probably zero tax due, and just a small refund, maybe it's just not a big deal in my situation.
  • media economy coverage
    @sma3 I'm sorry if what I said hurt you, but the mistake you're making is assuming I am talking about you specifically. I think it is wrong to generalize about the 1619 Project by anyone because it is a diverse compilation by different authors on many different subjects. I never mentioned you in particular in the above 1619 post. Nor did I have you necessarily in mind. My response is more inspired by the nonsense posted by virtually everyone from the right about so-called "wokeism" related to the 1619 Project. If anything that was particular, I was responding to the initial remark in this thread targeted at me written by a certain baseball fan, but my response goes beyond that.
    I am well aware of the controversy over the Project, and it has generated critical responses from both leftwing and rightwing historians. I am, however, irritated by the fact that posting a single essay from the project, one not written by Hannah-Jones but someone else on a different subject, incites these generalized attacks. And DavidRMoran is right to say that the project has evolved significantly from its initial publication and the NYT has attempted to address any errors in its various historical texts.
    It is the fake controversy over CRT, and the reductive conflation of it with the 1619 project, that particularly irks me. CRT is tought in colleges, law school in particular, not in elementary schools. The truth is guys like DeSantis don't what to talk about America's ugly history with race at all. I can understand that Hannah-Jones created controversy by a simple premise from the software industry--that slavery was a feature not a bug in the nation's founding, part of its essential design. I don't completely agree with that foundational argument. I think the founders had different viewpoints on the subject and while some certainly wanted to perpetuate the slavery institution, their views on the subject were not uniform. It is a mistake to generalize about them as well.
    But isn't Hannah-Jones' foundational argument even worth discussing in schools instead of putting the founders on pedestals and pretending they're gods as many children's history books currently do? The controversy the 1619 Project has generated is a necessary one. It should be debated in schools, not summarily dismissed. If anything would teach children "critical thinking," the loss of which older generations constantly lament today, it would be analyzing and discussing these essays.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    K-1s normally come in late-March or early-April, so any early filing is out.
    They need more forms. Brokerage 1099 reports are not reliable but one has to use some info from 1099 and other from K-1.
    I dealt with K-1 for years, so it's a doable mess. But I am now K-1 free and I sleep better.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Even better-FXF issues a 1099-not a K1 tax form. Unfortunately, UUP , an etf I was interested in years ago, issues a K1 !
    Why are people allergic to the K-1? Is it because they are typically issued late?
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Even better-FXF issues a 1099-not a K1 tax form. Unfortunately, UUP , an etf I was interested in years ago, issues a K1 !
  • media economy coverage
    @BenWP
    Yes SE CT Thanks for the correction
    @LewisBraham
    I don't want the following to be too detailed or political, but comments deserve a specific response.
    I am deeply hurt that you believe my complaints about the original 1619 project are based on “prejudice” and are “foolish” and “worse”. I do not think these adjectives improve the tenor of our discussions here. Many other people share my concerns about the lead essay of 1619 for similar reasons, and these concerns limited it's impact considerably.
    I was using 1619 as an example of the ideological and political agenda that seems to frame almost all media today, from the WSJ (whose editorials I occasionally read although they always seem to cherry pick facts that support their anti- Biden agenda) and the NYT on the left.
    I was referencing the opinion of five well known professional historians (who I have read and greatly respect), about the statement of Nikole Hannah-Jones (1691 lead editor, a journalist, not a historian), that “one of the primary reasons the colonists decided to declare their independence from Britain was because they wanted to protect the institution of slavery”.
    These historians believe this key statement in the lead essay is “factually inaccurate” and a “displacement of historical accuracy by ideology”. This made a lot of people suspect ideology and inaccuracy might be common here, and made them suspicious of the motives around the entire effort. It ignited a controversy that was a significant distraction to the impact 1619 could have had.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/20/magazine/we-respond-to-the-historians-who-critiqued-the-1619-project.html
    Gordon Wood, James McPhearson and the other historians say in their letter
    “We applaud all efforts to address the enduring centrality of slavery and racism to our history. Some of us have devoted our entire professional lives to those efforts, and all of us have worked hard to advance them. Raising profound, unsettling questions about slavery and the nation’s past and present, as The 1619 Project does, is a praiseworthy and urgent public service. Nevertheless, we are dismayed at some of the factual errors in the project and the closed process behind it.”
    “These errors, which concern major events, cannot be described as interpretation or “framing.” They are matters of verifiable fact, which are the foundation of both honest scholarship and honest journalism. They suggest a displacement of historical understanding by ideology. Dismissal of objections on racial grounds — that they are the objections of only “white historians” — has affirmed that displacement.”
    “On the American Revolution, pivotal to any account of our history, the project asserts that the founders declared the colonies’ independence of Britain “in order to ensure slavery would continue.” This is not true. If supportable, the allegation would be astounding — yet every statement offered by the project to validate it is false. “(end quote)
    There are more detailed refutations available than this letter. Like most controversial subjects, it is not black and white, but it seems to me very unlikely that continued British rule would have abolished slavery more quickly, as it continued in Britain until 1833.
    https://www.aier.org/article/fact-checking-the-1619-project-and-its-critics/
    The Times says they did not assemble a group of experts on the Revolution to get differing views on this critical statement for a debate or analysis. None of the five academics they consulted is a Revolutionary War historian. Their research is focused on economics, poverty, evictions, injustice, racism and civil rights. The two who were trained in History, research the 20th century, not the Revolution.
    A penetrating analysis of the Revolution’s origin with factual material on both sides would have eliminated much of the controversy about the original 1619 statement. But I have to agree with Wood et. al. that ideology seems to have take precedence over a debate about the facts.
    Unfortunately, there are few sources that a reader can go to find both sides and facts of an issue without being filtered though a pre-existing viewpoint to score points with their “tribe”.
    One of the few I have found that tries to present both sides of an issue in a daily email, using material from pretty much mainstream media is www.theflipside.io. They focus on current issues and try to present both sides (without quoting Fox news). Here is their presentation of the original 1619 project.
    https://www.theflipside.io/archives/the-1619-project
    I would look at their recent posts on Kevin McCarthy, Tax policy, and Classified Documents from last week.
  • This Tale of Humira Made Me Doubt My Healthcare Holdings
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/28/business/humira-abbvie-monopoly.html
    This investigative piece from the Times uncovers a lot of unsavory truths about why US drug prices are so high and how the maker of Humira has gamed a rigged system to maintain its massive profit margins. To think that Abbvie has made $114B off this one drug! The system must have been designed by drugmakers because it is perfectly tailored to prevent competition. I have decent-sized holdings in XLV and BHCFX, but I feel sleazy saying so.
  • VG Multisector Bond Fund VMSIX/VMSAX
    Now I see where that foreign figure comes from - click on the issuer type "tab" under "Weighted Exposure".
    The latest SEC filings (including monthly filings) go only through September. Looking at the annual report (with Sept data), only 75% of the portfolio was domestic, so 25% was foreign. A reallocation of over 15% of the portfolio (from foreign to domestic) in three months - from Sept to Dec - would be quite substantial.
    More likely Vanguard is counting only ex-US sovereign debt as foreign debt and counting all other foreign debt (such as Air Canada and Credit Suisse AG) in various other buckets of corporate bonds.
    Counting this way, it does look like 100% of Vanguard's "foreign" (i.e. sovereign) debt is EM. In Sept. that was 9.7% of the fund's portfolio (vs. 9.1% in Dec.).
    Contrast that with the clear breakdown Fidelity gives for FADMX, where foreign corporate debt still counts as foreign debt:
    Foreign Developed-Markets Debt		5.06%
    Corporate Bonds 2.29%
    Sovereign Bonds 2.73%
    Cash & Net Other Assets 0.03%
    Emerging-Markets Debt 15.76%
    Corporate Bonds 4.02%
    Sovereign Bonds 10.80%
    Floating-Rate Debt 0.40%
    Cash & Net Other Assets 0.55%
    I generally assume that promo material borrows from legal filings - companies risk suits if they deviate. What the VG prospectus says is:
    Under normal circumstances, the Fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in bonds, which include fixed income securities such as corporate bonds; emerging market bonds; and U.S. Treasury obligations and other U.S. government and agency securities
    While the wording doesn't say that this list is exhaustive ("bonds which include ...."), developed market debt is conspicuous by its absence. The odd wording is consistent with not considering corporate foreign debt to be foreign debt.
  • VG Multisector Bond Fund VMSIX/VMSAX
    Vanguard is using an incremental approach.
    After having funds in core, core-plus, HY, EM bond categories, a multisector bond fund is the next step, as noted by @Observant1. I will just watch it for now as I do have Vanguard accounts.
    @msf, I see the website showing foreign as 9.1% (total 52.7% investment-grade). May be the promos just highlighted IG, HY and EM.
    https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vmsix#portfolio-composition
  • Adanis empire lost 51 billions in 48 hrs
    An interesting story that is unfolding.
    Questions raised in the US & Indian media include why the sudden Hindenburg interest in an obscure business empire far away. Adani companies aren't even listed in the US.
    Notably, the Hindenburg report came just ahead of a big local stock offering by Adani Group.
    Also be aware that Indian accounting rules and business empire building techniques differ.
    On the latter, it is common for Indian conglomerates to acquire controlling stakes of 20-30% and become manager-operator of the entities. So, unlike in the US, many companies in these groups aren't wholly-owned subsidiaries. Tatas, Birlas, Ambanis, Mahendras, Adanis and many others (I have included only the names more familiar in the US) grew that way. Both Ambani & Adani are close to Indian Prime Minister Modi.
    BTW, Tata Motors/TTM recently announced that it is withdrawing its US listing due to lack of interest. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTM/profile?p=TTM
    Several Indian companies are listed in the US.
    https://m.dailyhunt.in/news/india/english/businessupturn-epaper-dhc9e2ecf265b34d49a4518907d16772ea/indian+companies+that+are+traded+on+nyse+and+nasdaq-newsid-n197957212
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    Capital One Bank is paying 3.3% for their Savings Account, and 4.15% for one year CDs. That is still below the 4.27% and 4.42% for a Money Market fund at Schwab. and I can get one year CDs at Schwab for a 4.75% Coupon rate. Capital One offers some liquidity advantages for me, with a local branch that appeals to my wife, and CD penalities for early termination is much less "painful" than brokerage CDs at Schwab. You take a hit on interest rate amounts at Capital One, but not as significant as some might expect.
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    With little more effort, one can also buy T-Bills to beat the m-mkt funds.
    I also read a story that banks are losing deposits because bank accounts (savings, online savings, m-mkt accounts) haven't kept up with rising rates. But banks don't care as their lending business has been slow too and the Fed pays them 4.4% to park their reserves at the Fed.
    Edit/Add: LINK1 LINK2
  • media economy coverage
    @davidrmoran, you are one of the hardest to decipher posters on this board. You write in code that I think only you understand. Short sentences and acronyms you think others should understand. Write in clear sentences and you will get your point across a little better.
    u k, bruh?
    idk, looking back here and trying to see what you are talking about, not having luck ...
    TJ was for Thomas Jefferson
    [] was an inline flag for someone who cannot be bothered to get ' its ' right, ever, simply ever
    nerde was a weak, nerd attempt at pointing out the error of getting merde wrong even in the pointed deployment of it (same person), as the French don't say
    woke, crt, 1619, car audio, jfc, all should be figure-outtable, no? lmk, hth