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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/25/23
    Market breadth extremely strong and remain elevated past 3 4 wks
    Part due to Tsla good er sustain rally last few days
    See what will uncle Powell say in two wks. Maybe another consecutive 0.25 0.25 then stop. Inflation appeared improved compared 6 months ago
    It's been a reasonable onpar Earning weeks so far
    Just like that everyone forgot we had massive draws down in tech -40 45% last year /68% retracement in cryptos
    Nasdaq sp500 all past 200 days ma past 24 48 hrs... Most of my cover call options expired itm didn't expect 10 12% swing in few wks
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/25/23
    From Barron's:
    By Alex Eule Friday, January 27
    "The January Effect. Stocks closed out another strong week, with the Nasdaq Composite, in particular, benefiting from the 2023 rebound. The tech-heavy index rose another 1% today, pushing its weekly gain to 4.3%. It's the Nasdaq's fourth-straight week in positive territory.
    The S&P 500 rose 0.25% on the day and 2.5% on the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was essentially flat on the day but still up 1.8% this week.
    As investors look toward an end to rate hikes, growth-focused tech stocks have been the primary beneficiary. The Nasdaq is closing in on its best January in more than 20 years. With two trading days to go, the index is up 11% on the month, its best January since a 12.2% gain in January 2001.
    For a lot of folks, the '01 callback will come with bad memories. At the time, the market was still dealing with the dot-com crash. After the strong January, the Nasdaq went on to fall 30% through the rest of 2001. Ultimately, the Nasdaq didn't find its bottom until October 2002."
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Jan 28 Episode
    McLennan will examine the risks of monetary and fiscal tightening amidst high debt levels in the U.S. and discuss the types of companies that can succeed despite these challenges.


  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Took just a smidgeon from both PRWCX and PRNEX and combined the amount from them both to buy PRCPX (junk bonds) shares.
    Portfolio X-Ray now shows:
    7% cash
    51 domestic stocks
    9 foreign stocks
    32 bonds
  • Experts Forecast Stock and Bond Returns
    Expert forecast? Nope, just the facts, ma'am:
    Good start to 2023.
    TUHYX. I'm still down by quite a bit, but the published YTD numbers are encouraging: +5.48%
    Glad I bought PRCPX, too. I'm not in possession of all of it, but the YTD number = +4.11%.
    Bought into PRFDX (equity income) at the right time, too. YTD +5.02%.
    ETF. HYDB. YTD +3.48%.
    ETF SCHP. YTD +2.76%.
    (It's still January. Who needs EQUITIES, eh?)
    Source: Morningstar.
  • Experts Forecast Stock and Bond Returns
    I bought 1 share of Tesla @113.06 on 1/4/2023 for entertainment value. Needless to say, I should have bought more!
  • Penn Capital Floating Rate Income Fund to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1618627/000139834423001236/fp0082003-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0082003-1_497.htm
    THE RBB FUND TRUST
    Penn Capital Floating Rate Income Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    Supplement dated January 27, 2023
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) dated December 31, 2022
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of The RBB Fund Trust (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Penn Capital Management Company, LLC (the “Adviser”), approved a Plan of Liquidation and Termination for the Fund (the “Plan”). The Board concluded that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed and liquidated as a series of the Trust effective as of the close of business on or about February 27, 2023.
    Effective as of January 30, 2023, in anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund will no longer accept purchases into the Fund. In addition, the Adviser is in the process of transitioning the Fund’s portfolio securities to cash and/or cash equivalents and the Fund will no longer be pursuing its stated investment objective.
    Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their investments as described in the Fund’s Prospectus. The redemption of shares will generally be considered a taxable event.
    If you hold shares of the Fund in an IRA account, you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds from the liquidation of the Fund (the “Proceeds”) to reinvest or “rollover” your Proceeds into another IRA and maintain their tax-deferred status. You must notify the Fund’s transfer agent by telephone at 1-844-302-PENN (7366) (toll free) prior to February 27, 2023 of your intent to rollover your IRA account to avoid withholding deductions from your Proceeds.
    Pursuant to the Plan, if the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to February 27, 2023, your shares will be automatically redeemed on February 27, 2023 at the closing net asset value per share, and you will receive your Proceeds from the Fund, subject to any required withholding. These Proceeds will generally be subject to federal and possibly state and local income taxes if the redeemed Fund shares are held in a taxable account, and the Proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the Fund shares redeemed.
    If the redeemed Fund shares are held in a qualified retirement account, such as an IRA, the redemption Proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation. You should consult with your tax advisor on the consequences of this redemption to you.
    Shareholder inquiries should be directed to the Fund at 1-844-302-PENN (7366).
    * * * * *
    Please retain this supplement for your reference.
  • media economy coverage
    University auxiliary services (bookstores, dorms, dining halls, gyms, sports, stadiums, etc) have their own operating budgets and are not part of the academic budgets (tuition, faculty/staff salaries).
    Public university tuitions have gone up because state supports have declined significantly. At my university, state support was about 70-80% when I started, but only 10-15% by the time I retired. Some joked that we could stop using the state's name and be free but the explanation was that it wasn't simple - as land-grant university, we got lot of land, and buildings that were from separate capital budgets, and it would be impossible to pay for those.
    In as much as out-of-state tuitions are attractive to universities, several have strict limits on nonstate enrollments. This is because for each nonstate student admitted, there may be a qualifying state student not admitted.
    Private university tuitions are going up because many rich folks are willing to pay for the name and prestige; but lot of students get financial aid (via scholarships, grants, loans, campus work) and their effective tuition may be about half the listed tuitions.
    Community colleges/2-yr colleges are mostly funded locally (property taxes, etc); there is some state funding too. Often, one has to a resident in the district to qualify for low tuition.
  • media economy coverage
    I see. There's truth to that about the arms race. I think though a lot of the funding from the government has dried up in the case of public universities, and that is also a reason tuitions have gone up. Meanwhile, grants for students such as the old federal Pell Grants have disappeared and been replaced with loans.
    Regarding wages for college graduates vs non-college ones:
    image
  • media economy coverage
    The point about the hot tubs was meant to illustrate one of the sources of rising college tuition that has nothing to do with education. In order to attract higher income students, whose parents will pay the full tuition, colleges ( including public colleges) have spent lavishly on climbing walls, luxurious dorms, saunas, locally sourced all organic expensive food that no middle class family could afford.
    Any school that doesn't looses "customers" whose parents can write checks for $50,000 plus a year.
    When I went to the University of Texas in the 1970s we ate enchiladas and meatloaf. Now even the kids there get kale, organic sprouts, six desert stations, all you can eat fresh midnight cookies etc.
    There was one University I read about a few years ago that decided to lower their tuition to attract more applicants. In fact their applications fell dramatically because applicants thought they might not get all the services other schools were offering.
    It is an arms race that has little to do with the quality of the education, but the image and amenities.
  • Experts Forecast Stock and Bond Returns
    @Mark
    I was struck by the Barron's article on TSLA 1/8/23
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-tesla-stock-price-pick-51673047775
    "It helps that Tesla is expected to generate the most free cash flow among auto makers in 2023, some $12.2 billion, up from $9 billion in 2022. Toyota, the second-most-valuable auto company, is expected to generate free cash flow of about $10 billion this year and next. "
    So I held my nose and bought a little. It is up from $121 to $177
  • media economy coverage
    @Sma3 An anecdote about Southwest, Connecticut does not a national trend make:
    https://bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-9/forty-years-of-falling-manufacturing-employment.htm This long-term loss of manufacturing jobs is only going to get worse with time due to automation.
    I also don't think it helps to stereotype the younger generations as wasteful foolish ones that spend all their money on "hot tubs and locally sourced organic food." What's next, a mention of avocado toast? The truth is, Gen Z and Millennials spend more money on some things than Boomers and Xers and less on others. They probably find what we spend on our cars and houses wasteful:
    https://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/spending/articles/how-millennials-spend-their-money
    https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-17/gen-z-has-360-billion-to-spend-trick-is-getting-them-to-buy
  • Vanguard update
    I moved a Vanguard account to Schwab last summer, disgusted by their lousy service.
    Since then I have been unable to log into the account getting instead a "reestablish online access" which didnt work.
    Messaging Vanguard says it will take 7 to 10 days to respond!
    So I held my nose and called. Surprise surprise I got a nice guy in the Philippines in less than 5 minutes who fixed the online access issue ( it took half an hour) . They also transferred me to another guy who told me my tax forms will be available by mid February.
    While I am not going to move money to Vanguard, maybe they have heard the furor and are spending some money to improve service
  • media economy coverage
    @LewisBraham
    At least in Southwestern Connecticut, Electric Boat is desperate to hire "blue collar" technically trained industrial workers to build subs. They subsidize the training programs in high school and guarantee a job if student finishes program. Unlike the Cape, where you can charge $350 to put in a toilet ( personal experience) people can afford to live in SW CT.
    A lot of the CHIPS act and Inflation Reduction Act is directed exactly at building those training programs in Red States
    https://www.brookings.edu/research/with-high-tech-manufacturing-plants-promising-good-jobs-in-ohio-workforce-developers-race-to-get-ready/
    How US compares to the rest of the world in College expenses
    https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2018/09/why-is-college-so-expensive-in-america/569884/
    "All told, including the contributions of individual families and the government (in the form of student loans, grants, and other assistance), Americans spend about $30,000 per student a year—nearly twice as much as the average developed country. “The U.S. is in a class of its own,” says Andreas Schleicher, the director for education and skills at the OECD, and he does not mean this as a compliment. “Spending per student is exorbitant, and it has virtually no relationship to the value that students could possibly get in exchange.”
    For example, U.S. colleges spend, relative to other countries, a startling amount of money on their nonteaching staff, according to the OECD data."
    That doesn't include the climbing gyms, hot tubs and locally sourced organic food the students demand!
  • Experts Forecast Stock and Bond Returns
    Don't look now but ARKK is up nearly 20% YTD. A lot of that might be due to TSLA but I hold neither.
    You don’t really “hold” those kinds of investments. More like “riding” them.
    image
  • Fidelity Premium, Private Client Services
    My experiences. At Fidelity same as above. Quicker phone help with more seasoned reps with Premium. Dedicated rep disappeared. With Etrade surprise ,surprise, surprise. A dedicated rep who has a direct # and calls back usually within 15 min. He handles any questions, problems etc to make my "experience" more satisfying with Etrade. I believe this is available with a minimum 50K account. No portfolio advice as this is a self directed account. Vanguard has children answering the phones. Firstrade and Wellstrade have no dedicated reps even with large self directed accounts. Ally Invest is sad. Anyone else with a different assessment of these?
  • Fidelity Premium, Private Client Services
    Recalling from the peak Covid period of time; which affects my dating of some events. We had an individual assigned to our accounts; if we needed/wanted to have a direct contact at a Fido business office within our region. He did call 2 times to introduce himself and express he could help us with any questions/services.
    We were not involved in any Private Client or advisor services. I suspect he was assigned to us based upon our asset base with Fido. There were about 10 others at his office in similar positions.
    He was shown as our contact when logged into the web site. My best recall guess is that this was the 2019-2021 period and then he was no longer shown as our contact. I don't know whether Fido stopped the practice, or because we never contacted him for any services.
    @Soupkitchen et al
    Fidelity hiring 1,000's
    I suspect you'll have contact with some 'newbies', I've never encountered a circumstance, however; when a rep. who couldn't fully help, didn't immediately escalate my call to the proper person of knowledge.
  • media economy coverage
    @Crash
    >> Yes. "Woke" has just gone way too far. It's to the point where any recognizable standard of behavior or academic touchstone has become the enemy. That's just wrong.
    Sorry, is this sarcasm? If not, examples? Not clear what you're talking about.
    @sma3
    >> I have read a lot of the 1619 project and object strongly to it's [] thesis that the American Revolution was fought to protect slavery. This distortion has been widely criticized by professional historians.
    I'd say you have not kept up. Lots of modulation and text changes and emphasis since initial publication. No serious historians objected to its general centering of institutionalized racialized slavery in the American story. To some details still, sure.
    Good to see someone siding w TJ as his star continues to fall.
  • media economy coverage
    There is also of course the PPP business loan forgiveness hypocrisy from the 2020 bailouts:
    https://statesman.com/story/news/politics/politifact/2022/09/06/fact-check-ppp-loans-forgiven-republicans-matt-gaetz-marjorie-taylor-greene/65470173007/ It's OK for Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene to get their business loans forgiven, but not students.
    There are also ancillary benefits to society overall from an educated populace: less crime, better understanding of the political process and an educated workforce to compete with other nations. It isn't just me, me, me as Crash suggested, although a degree is pretty much essential now to be in the middle class. Ironically, there are states today that spend more tax dollars on prisons than they do on public schools and their university systems.
  • schp etf question
    @Derf, Real Yields on Inflation Bonds went from 0% to -1% and thus the price of bonds went up (yields down = bond prices up). Will try and attach a chart if I can figure out how to do that.