Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @hank Is this the thread? Although only 5 weeks ago.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    There was a good discussion of this issue perhaps 2-3 months back. ISTM I initiated the post after getting hit with a 15% “foreign tax” on an annual distribution on an ADR (Swiss based). I’m unable to find that thread. But if anyone can pull it up it might help clarify things. There were some excellent comments by @msf and others.
    FWIW - Whatever the bottom line on this issue, it didn’t change my opinion about owning the stock. But I did recently sell it as part of a consolidation / risk reduction move. (And it’s been going up ever since)
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    @hank, if you do not mind, pl share how you picked BAMBX over other alternatives. M* chart shows the fund made 0.13% over the past 1 yr but the chart does look steady.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/12/23
    Did not expect the survey to be less bullish (spread) now than on June 15.
  • Grandson in a quandry
    I wish someone would leave a card on my 2012 Honda Accord with 83,000 miles ! Air conditioning is blowing hot and cold-thought the problem was solved August 2022. I'll find out tomorrow when I take it to the repair shop !
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Yep, happy days are here again may be the theme song
    looking ahead for the bond universe if the inflation + rate hike story is really fading as the numbers show now. Which is the story Pimco was telling in their last outlook.
    It’s at least a more level playing field with the 10-Yr. Treasury now in the 4% range compared to a couple years back. Of course, by taking just a little more credit risk you can net a percent or two higher.
    d
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    To each their own, @Crash. Thought I'd mention it since there doesn't seem to be much talk beyond junk, mortgages, and bank loans.
    Bank loan funds on track for their second best year in history. A few non agency mbs funds on track for double digit annual gains. Junk bonds, if history is any guide will also enjoy double digit gains this year. Even the commercial real estate bond fund I love to hate is on track for a 10% gain. If the 10 year can right itself like the past few days many other bond categories will join the party. I fully understand the logic of money market, CDs, and Treasuries at these high rates but……
    Congrats to @Crash for staying strong with one of the better junk bond funds in 2023 (TUHYX)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I don't understand the concern for international funds in a Roth IRA, but that's ok. I did google a little on the subject and it's complicated, but I'm still not concerned after reading. Apparently Schwab isn't either. I found this in one of their articles on the subject:
    Foreign taxes in retirement accounts
    Unfortunately, foreign investments in retirement accounts don't qualify for either a tax credit or deduction.
    Because income in a tax-deferred account—such as an individual retirement account (IRA) or 401(k)—isn't subject to U.S. tax (at least not until you begin making withdrawals), you can't deduct foreign taxes paid on investments held in the account. But don't worry—the foreign taxes reduce the income earned in that account. That is, when you eventually withdraw funds from your account, you'll be taxed on the net amount only.
    If you have a Roth IRA, the situation is a bit different. Withdrawals from Roth accounts are tax-free, so you won't benefit from the foreign taxes you paid. But don't let the lack of a tax benefit deter you from holding foreign investments in your Roth account; it could still make sense to include foreign assets for diversification and potential growth.
  • Why inflation is losing its punch — and why things could get even better
    I have read so many opinions and projections about the interest rate environment and inflation. I am encouraged that there are signs that inflation might be slowing, which was the goal of aggressive interest rate hikes. On the other hand the Fed reaction to that can be so varied. I have a hard time seeing the Feds doing anything that may encourage inflation to return, so cutting interest rates does not seem likely for awhile. On the other hand the need to continue any aggressive rate hiking seems unnecessary if inflation is slowing, and could lead to a recessionary status. It seems to me that we are in store for some "happy place" where rates need to be more stable for awhile, close to the current level, before the Feds know what is needed next. I expect the rate hike in July, but we may be in a more extended period of nothingness, before the Feds decide what comes next (rate hikes/rate reductions/no changes). Banks are quite willing to offer to sell CDs for 18 month CDs for 5.25%, 2 years for 5.05%, and 3 years at 4.8%, which to me sounds like they expect slightly lower interest rates, but not a major reduction.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/12/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/12/23
    Bullish remained the top sentiment (41.0%; high) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (25.9%; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (33.1%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +15.1% (above average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (72+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds up, oil up, gold up, dollar down. NATO promised more support for Ukraine, but membership only after the war; an upset Putin sent more missiles over Kyiv. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1107/thread
  • Grandson in a quandry
    My 2009 Toyota pickup will just have to make it to the end. $42,000 repair- how long does anyone think that insurance companies are going to put up with that kind of stuff?
    Others have stated that $42K repair is an outlier. As to the question of how long before insurance rates soar, the answer may be: not long; the rise has already begun.
    • Auto insurers have raised premiums amid a higher frequency of crashes and repair costs during the pandemic era.
    ...
    More wrecks, fewer shops mean higher premiums
    Average motor vehicle insurance prices rose by 17.1% in May versus a year ago, according to the consumer price index. [16.9% Y/Y in June.]
    That’s among the largest annual increases of any consumer good or service, bested only by prices for margarine, frozen vegetables, motor vehicle repair and meals at schools and employee sites, according to CPI data.
    Prices were up 2% alone between April and May.
    ...
    Many factors have conspired to push up the cost of car repairs, which ultimately feeds through to insurance prices, economists said.
    For one, many auto body shops and auto maintenance companies went out of business during the pandemic, which has reduced their supply and driven up repair costs, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.
    ...
    Car wrecks also surged in 2022.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/16/heres-why-auto-insurers-are-raising-rates-as-car-prices-ease.html
  • Memoriam: Robert Bruce (Bruce Fund)
    Eponymous funds are hard investments. Muhlenkamp was bequeathed to Ron's son, and has been vastly better without him. Akre Focus was the outgrowth of one betrayal of Chuck Akre by his analysts; he intensely prepped their successors. By MFO Premium's and Morningstar's reckoning, they've outperformed their peers by a healthy margin since but have seen huge outflows. Walthausen's team gave up. Bill Miller's successors at Miller Opportunity are top 1% this year, but the fund was also top 1% in 2020 and bottom 1% in 2021 and 2022. Cook & Bynum is five-star after Dowe's passing, but most of that comes from being reclassified by Morningstar, perhaps fairly, as a diversified EM fund.
    And Bruce? The Younger Mr. Bruce will persevere, I suspect. His dad was more and more a voice in the background, I suspect. And I'm certainly willing to ask them, if you'd like.
    The prudent course for active investors is usually a functional team or a firm (T Rowe Price, Mairs & Power) that has a really good record for manager replacement. The prudent course for skeptics might be a passive strategy that's not purely market-cap or debt weighted.
    I agree and have generally avoided father-and-son / family firms. I think Yacktman however was one of the better ones. I believe Donald brought Steven in very early and they worked together for a very long time. I considered it numerous times but never owned it. I admired their consistent (value) approach, and I believe they put up good returns, especially when the S&P floundered. They did better than many of the other “value stalwarts” like Clipper, Oakmark Select, Muhkenkamp, Oak Value, Torray, Longleaf, etc. of the same era.
  • Memoriam: Robert Bruce (Bruce Fund)
    @David_Snowball. I appreciate what you did, likewise. Still holding BRUFX in wife's IRA.
    The elder Bruce DIED and it was reported here in late July, '23. In August, the ridiculous automated M* rating on BRUFX asserted:
    "The main contributor to the rating is its parent firm's impressive long-term risk-adjusted performance, as shown by the firm's average ten-year Morningstar Rating of 4.0 stars. The rating also gains because a manager has at least$ 1 million invested in the strategy. Lastly, the rating is limited by the instability of its management team. The fund last saw a manager change two months ago, which suggests that it could do more to retain its portfolio managers."
    Pathetic.
    *This is another thought about BRUFX: it's having a suck-ass year in 2023. @bee likes the fund, too. It had occurred to me to maybe switch out of it? Granted, I'm writing these words at the end of this year's WORST month.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    One can't take foreign tax paid off Fed taxes
    @Derf, what does that mean.
    I'm not Derf, but...
    I THOUGHT there was a way on the 1040 to deduct foreign taxes paid against domestic taxes owed. But in my own case, there's no domestic tax bill to deduct foreign tax paid against. (NHYDY. I just have to eat the foreign tax paid, if I'm going to own it. The amount is withheld "at the source." So TRP tells me.) @Derf, is that along the lines of what you meant?
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    For me, Dan Ivascyn is the most crucial for me to understand bonds and what to do. For many years, Dan Ivascyn has been saying the same thing which is "I can still find opportunities in MBS that I like".
    Same here. Dan and Richard Clarida, back at Pimco from a stint at the Fed, gave a great presentation of Pimco's latest cyclical outlook a few weeks back.
    Another bond asset that's been good lately: EM debt. The dollar-denominated etf I use in that category is up 8.3% ytd. Of course volatility is an issue for EM assets.
  • Grandson in a quandry


    Nice NYT article posted by @LewisBraham
    Some of these toy trucks are beginning to show up up in northern Mi. That 360 degree turn might be useful for military or law enforcement application. Difficult to see how it will help the average person get from point A to point B.
    That said, any mechanical maintenance or body repair is becoming incredibly expensive. The technology is part of it. No, an iphone doesn’t really cost $1,000 to manufacture. But people are willing to pay for the latest technology. Same with autos. The other big component is greatly escalated labor costs the past couple years - an outgrowth of the pandemic + labor shortages. (As noted elsewhere on board, more immigration would help ease the labor shortages.)
  • Grandson in a quandry
    "Drove the Acclaim and a Subaru until we could claim the 1000 dollar bounty from California for taking polluters off the streets"
    +1
  • Grandson in a quandry
    @BenWP. We have always bought used cars for cash since my wife's family ran out of old Chevys to dump on us. Somewhere in there was a Plymouth Acclaim from my side. The backseat area was stained a permanent shade of Pepperidge Farm Goldfish Orange by the time it died.
    Per @LewisBraham on car repairs, those prices will get a lot of used cars totaled. We are still in the early 21'st century with our vehicles.
    Drove the Acclaim and a Subaru until we could claim the 1000 dollar bounty from California for taking polluters off the streets.
    OTOH, since covid, we have had a few people knock on the door about #1 child's 2003 Accord. And people regularly leave cards on the vehicle. The 2008 Fit and the 2002 Odyssey get no love at all.
  • Major Indexes Since 2022
    Just to add to that - Precious metals turned up sharply today as the dollar dropped. Lower U.S. interest rates going forward could cause the dollar to slump over time. Silver gained around 4.5% today. Gold was more subdued, but had a decent day. GDX (gold miners index) was up over 5%. Biggest day in months.
    I know those who vacated equities 12-18 months ago have been happy sitting on cash / short term debt at rates north of 5%. Who wouldn’t be? But one wonders if / when they may buy back into the equities they vacated at much higher prices? Getting the timing right is always tough.
    I’m as surprised as anyone at the strength of today’s equity markets.
  • INTERESTING WAY TO RUN A BUSINESS
    Yes, very sad. In 1970 I happened to be introduced to Fritz Maytag- a very nice fellow. I figured Anchor was a goner when bought by Sapporo. Sure not much left of the SF that I grew up in.