(PKrug Twitter)
if your picture of the economy came entirely from headlines and cable chyrons — which is probably true for many — would you know that the economy has grown 6.7 percent under Biden so far and inflation for the past 6 months was 1.9 percent?

A good analysis of the subject and why the probability of a serious default is slim: https://morningstar.com/articles/1133400/should-investors-be-worried-about-the-debt-ceiling

Here is the registration filing the ETF:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923184/000119312523015189/d442407d485apos.htm

For the week ending on 1/25/23, bearish became the top sentiment (36.7%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (28.4%; below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (35.0%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -8.3% (below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); supply-chain disruptions; economy; the Fed (higher rates longer); dollar; crypto ice-age; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (48+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar down. Notably, this Survey changed direction so soon (in 4 weeks). #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=8&scrollTo=912

+1. I recall trying Fido years ago. There was a reason I did not stay with them.

MANY years ago, Fido converted most mutual fund a/c to brokerage a/c. But some still exist. Of course, most Fido 401k/403b a/c are mutual fund a/c but some may have brokerage windows.

@TheShadow, related exchange at Twitter,
https://twitter.com/syouth1/status/1618369965362397187

I opened my Fidelity account in 1993 and the brokerage was part of the account then.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1545440/000158064223000383/umt_497e.htm
497 1 umt_497e.htm
January 25, 2023
Q3 ALL-SEASON SECTOR ROTATION FUND
A Series of Ultimus Managers Trust
Supplement to the Summary Prospectus and Prospectus
each dated March 30, 2022, as supplemented on April 8, 2022, May 3, 2022, July 26, 2022, and September 21, 2022 and the Statement of Additional Information dated March 30, 2022, as supplemented on May 3, 2022, July 26, 2022, and September 21, 2022
(This Supplement replaces the first Supplement dated January 25, 2023.)
This supplement updates certain information in the Summary Prospectus, statutory Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”) of the Q3 All-Season Sector Rotation Fund (the “Fund”), a series of Ultimus Managers Trust (the “Trust”). For more information or to obtain a copy of the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, or the SAI, free of charge, please contact the Fund at 1-855-784-2399.
On January 18, 2023 the Board of Trustees of the Trust (the “Board”) approved the following changes to the name, the investment objective and the investment strategy of the Fund, which changes are expected to take effect on or about March 30, 2023:
The name of the Fund will be changed to the Q3 All-Season Systematic Opportunities Fund.
The investment objective will be changed to reflect that the Fund will seek to achieve capital appreciation.
The investment strategy will be revised to reflect the Fund’s use of a different strategy, as described in the revised Prospectus and SAI.
Notice is hereby provided to shareholders of the Fund that the foregoing changes are anticipated to take effect on or about March 30, 2023.
Each of these changes will be reflected in a Summary Prospectus, statutory Prospectus and SAI dated on or about March 30, 2023. A revised Summary Prospectus, which incorporates the foregoing changes, will be provided to shareholders of the Fund once these changes go into effect. Copies of the preliminary statutory prospectus (“Preliminary Prospectus”) and SAI will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and will reflect the foregoing changes, which will be publicly available on the SEC’s website. The information in the Preliminary Prospectus and SAI is not complete and may be changed.
Investors Should Retain this Supplement for Future Reference

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923184/000119312523015201/d445147d497.htm
497 1 d445147d497.htm FORM 497
SUPPLEMENT DATED JANUARY 25, 2023
TO THE INVESTOR CLASS AND INSTITUTIONAL CLASS PROSPECTUSES
DATED APRIL 28, 2022, AS SUPPLEMENTED, AND
STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
DATED JULY 29, 2022, AS SUPPLEMENTED, OF
MATTHEWS ASIA FUNDS
For all existing and prospective shareholders of Matthews Korea Fund – Investor Class Shares (MAKOX) and Institutional Class Shares (MIKOX):
At a meeting held on January 12, 2023, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Matthews International Funds, d/b/a Matthews Asia Funds, agreed to consider in early 2023 the conversion (the “Conversion”) of the Matthews Korea Fund (the “Fund”) to a newly created exchange-traded fund (an “ETF”), to be named the Matthews Korea Active ETF (the “Korea ETF”).
The Korea ETF will be managed in a substantially similar manner as the Fund, with identical investment objectives and fundamental investment policies and substantially similar investment strategies. If approved by the Board, it is anticipated that the Conversion would occur in 2023. By converting the Fund to an ETF, Matthews International Capital Management, LLC (“Matthews”), the Fund’s investment adviser, believes shareholders in the Fund could benefit from lower overall net expenses, additional trading flexibility, increased portfolio holdings transparency and enhanced tax efficiency.
Matthews is communicating the proposed plans prior to formal Board approval in order to provide ample notice of the planned Conversion and allow shareholders time to engage with Matthews on the implications of the proposed transaction, including the need to have a brokerage account before the Conversion occurs.
The Conversion would consist of (1) the transfer of all or substantially all of the Fund’s assets, subject to its liabilities, to the Korea ETF for shares of the Korea ETF; and (2) the distribution of the Korea ETF shares to Fund shareholders, after which the Fund will no longer exist. It is anticipated that if approved by the Board, the Conversion will not require shareholder approval.
When the Conversion is considered, the Board, including the Trustees not deemed to be “interested persons” of the Fund pursuant to Section 2(a)(19) of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, will need to determine that it is in the best interests of the Fund and that the Conversion would not dilute the interests of the Fund’s shareholders.
The Korea ETF has not commenced investment operations, and it is not expected to have shareholders before the Conversion. If the Conversion is approved by the Board, existing shareholders of the Fund will receive a combined information statement/prospectus describing in detail both the Conversion and the Korea ETF, and summarizing the Board’s considerations in approving the Conversion.
It is anticipated that the Conversion will qualify as a tax-free reorganization for federal income tax purposes and that shareholders will not recognize any gain or loss in connection with the Conversion, except to the extent that they receive cash in lieu of fractional shares of the Korea ETF.
In connection with the proposed Conversion, an information statement/prospectus that will be included in a registration statement on Form N-14 will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). After the registration statement is filed with the SEC, it may be amended or withdrawn, and it will not be distributed to shareholders unless and until it is declared effective by the SEC. Investors are urged to read the materials and any other relevant documents when they become available because they will contain important information about the Conversion. After they are filed, free copies of the materials will be available on the SEC’s web site at www.sec.gov. These materials also will be available at www.matthewsasia.com and a paper copy can be obtained at no charge by calling 800-789-ASIA (2742).
This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer of any securities for sale. No offer of securities will be made except pursuant to a prospectus meeting the requirements of Section 10 of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Please retain this Supplement with your records.

@MikeM - Giroux
Photo of current Barrons ”Brain Trust” at work making 2023 predictions (Barron’s Cover / January 23, 2023). The numbers I earlier cited for Giroux’s 2022 picks appeared in the January 16 issue. Abby Joseph Cohen and David Giroux (to her right) visible on right edge of photo. Appears to be Henry Ellenbogen with back to camera. His picks were even worse than Giroux’s.

@lynnbolin2021 - I noticed that DIVO was mentioned in your article. Do you have an opinion on it's counterpart IDVO? TIA if you care to comment.

Hi Mark,
I like DIVO and have owned it in the past. I limit my funds to those with AUM over $100M while IDVO has only $9M and has an inception date of last September. By comparison, DIVO has $2.6B in AUM. IDVO has readily outperformed the S&P 500 during its existence. It has also outperformed DIVO readily.
It will probably be fine applying a similar model as DIVO, but it is too small and too new for my taste.
Looking at other Options Arbitrage / Strategies, I see not other funds that interest me with more AUM and age. IRONX, JHEQX, and JEPIX have good long-term performance and are Great Owls. ACIO has also done well. REMIX also uses options and has a good three-year history.
While I find funds like IDVO interesting, I put them in a "Young Fund" Watchlist until they get more history.

“Wonder Boy” didn’t exactly set the house on fire.
GE - 17.1%
BDX + 4.0%
TMO - 9.1%
KDP - 2.9%
TEL - 26.2%
AMZN - 48.3%
(1 year returns including dividends)

@lynnbolin2021 - I noticed that DIVO was mentioned in your article. Do you have an opinion on it's counterpart IDVO? TIA if you care to comment.

us and europe inflation is effectively over (meaning back to 2% or less), says yet another student
(aside from lags and ongoing gouging)
https://twitter.com/jan_eeckhout/status/1617478919560794112

Thanks for all of the positive comments. If anyone is having trouble reading the article, you may email me at [email protected] and I will send a copy.
The two most important recommendations in that article are to maintain a diversified portfolio and match bonds and CDs with withdrawal needs. Other than that, each investor's needs and beliefs are different, so I attempted to present quality options.
For me, after I wrote the article, I went back and looked I wanted to do. I made two changes: 1) move proceeds from matured CDs and Treasuries sitting in money markets to Fidelity and Vanguard Intermediate Treasury funds, and 2) move a short-term Muni-fund into an intermediate Muni-fund. Small steps each month.
I have more CDs and Treasuries maturing in February and will reassess based on new data. The funds in the article are my short-list. One fund mentioned by a reader is AVGE which is interesting. I am looking for similar funds for comparison.
Glad that you enjoyed the article.

@sma3, that is my exact thinking ! The consequences of defaulting the nation’s debt can repeat again as in 2011.

Guess I’m missing something. (Of course just their best guess.) But those are average annual returns - positive not negative. And likely to exceed both inflation and what cash / short-term fixed income would provide. Just eyeballing the list of equity investments, it appears to average out to something north of 6% per year. U.S. stocks as a group work out to 5.7% while small cap and international holdings are expected to do somewhat better
One caveat: Those probably represent stocks net of fees. So if owned thru funds and your average ER = 1%, your return would be well below the projections.

+1 hank I believe this article lists more funds than any of Mr. Bolin's previous articles !

Totally agree that defaulting would have grave consequences just like back in 2011. Even for a brief moment it would be a mess when Standard and Poor down graded treasuries to AA from AAA.
If things get really bad, social security checks may get delay and Medicare service may get suspended.