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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Kind words for T. Rowe Price - Abby Joseph Cohen / Barron’s Roundtable
    Abby Joseph Cohen * is a panelist in “Round II” of Barron’s Annual Roundtable (current Barron’s print edition). Her five recommendations for investment in 2023 include TROW. Some interesting thoughts about the firm as well about active management.
    (Cohen): “My last pick is T. Rowe Price [TROW] … We are entering a period when good active management of portfolios is going to make a difference, after an extended time in which the market was largely momentum-driven. People invested in market-capitalization-weighted index-oriented strategies, such as exchange-traded funds, which became self-fulfilling ‘prophesies’, until they didn't. This approach led to a high concentration in the indexes of a small number of stocks which grew overvalued. A handful of good active managers were left by the wayside …..
    “The company's mutual funds outperformed their benchmarks 76% of the time in the past 10 years. T. Rowe … pioneered no-load mutual funds. The idea was to provide a high-quality product with low fees. The company's funds still tend to have fees at the lower end of the spectrum. The stock hasn't performed well in the past year, and it has an attractive valuation. It is trading for 13 times trailing 12-month earnings, with a dividend yield of 4.3%. The consensus earnings estimate for next year is $7.74 a share …..

    ”If you believe that the U.S. economy will expand, T. Rowe will grow with it. The P/E ratio and dividend yield offer a layer of protection. The 52-week range on the stock is $93 to $194. The stock was trading on Jan. 6 at around $112. The concerns are priced in. What isn't priced in is greater interest in active investment.”
    (Excerpted from Barron’s - January 23, 2023 / edited for brevity)
    * Cohen once worked at T. Rowe Price as an analyst and had a long distinguished career at Goldman Sachs. She currently teaches business at Columbia University, NYC.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    +1 crash It just dawned on me that you were talking about Punahou School. My college roommate Sophomore year graduated from Punahou in 1979, the same class as Barack Obama, but of course nobody had heard of Barry Obama then. An elite high school and better than my college !
    Absolutely right. Another connection, for what it's worth: we moved last year out of the apartment block at Beretania @ Punahou where the future President lived, while with his grandparents. I'm sure things have changed since those days. The street noise was simply unbearable for us. We didn't have to go far, to find our new place. :)
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    +1 crash It just dawned on me that you were talking about Punahou School. My college roommate Sophomore year graduated from Punahou in 1979, the same class as Barack Obama, but of course nobody had heard of Barry Obama then. An elite high school and better than my college !
  • How the Hospice Movement Became a For-Profit Hustle
    @derf
    I was at the VA until 1997. There are some very good VAs especially in the South where many Vets move when they retire.
    Since 1997 the VA budget has increased dramatically from all the post 9/11 vets flooding into the system.
    The problem I saw in the 90s was the budgets were determined by the population in the local access area, so when Vets retired and fled high tax states, the VA hospitals there should have been consolidated and closed, but rarely were because the local Congressperson would fight like hell to keep that from happening. So if the budget declines and you can't close the place, needed improvements didn't happen.
  • 2022 Year-End Review Webinar
    @Charles. Thank you for your upload. I found a pdf, but do you also have a video recording?
    Found the link. Thank you
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    The Time Zones don't compute for me: I'm 2 hours behind L.A. and 3 hours, in summer. I would bet that Vonnie Quinn's brogue has held her back. Speaking as an Irishman, here. Seems to me she's done some work, rounding-out her words. She appears resistant to reciting that stupid spiel whenever any of them finishes their reports: "...128 countries on 14 continents, ... yada yada... THIS is Bloomberg." Wifey is Filipina, so I notice Lizzy Burden. Another is Kailey Leinz. Univ. of Virginia product. I want to have her children.
    https://www.lizzyburden.com/
    Burden is a fashion model, too.
    https://www.bso.org/profiles/kailey-leinz
    Emily Chang is from Kailua, and went to school just up the block from where I live.
    image
    Another of them is named Yu. A real looker.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Here's that Pimco Jan. 11 outlook piece Clarida referred to (very detailed): Cyclical Outlook: Strained Markets, Strong Bonds.
    Didn't realize he's a Pimco guy.
    The missing piece in all the Fed discussions is this: what measurement are they talking about when they refer to the 2% inflation target? Clarida's statement that inflation now is running "about 5%" means he's looking at year-over-year change -- which, if that's also the Fed's take, at least in part contradicts his point that the Fed is "forward looking."
    Nothing says backward looking like a year-over-year measure, but what that choice would mean for the economy and investing is that they're going to stick with tightening for a good while beyond what more current measures of inflation would indicate is the best course of action, and so yes, the risk of overtightening is very real. I hope they're going to be willing to change course when needed. (They're not idiots; just very careful with communication, and in some ways not all that transparent.)
    P.S. Thanks @Bee; I'd forgotten to look for WealthTrack episodes lately, and this one was for sure worth a listen.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    I have nothing against Jonathan Ferro but Katy Greifeld is very easy on the eyes.”
    That appears to be a requisite for women working at the network. Have always wondered if Mike does the screening himself … ?
    Vonnie Quinn is one of my favorites for all around personality and talent. For whatever reason she no longer appears daytimes, but occasionally surfaces from NY on their late night lineup.
    Dani Burger seemed to drop into their post-midnight broadcasts a few months back from out of nowhere. Extremely attractive, knowledgeable and gifted overall - but young and rough around the edges as a broadcaster. Been fun watching her grow professionally.
    Photo Album
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Jan 20, 2023 Episode
    As we move into 2023, the best advice for investors remains the same – “Don’t fight the Fed.” The Federal Reserve is being clear about its intentions to continue raising short-term interest rates and tapering its bond purchases until it reaches its target of bringing inflation down to 2%.
    Richard Clarida, a highly respected expert in Fed policy and Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve under Chairman Jerome Powell, will be discussing these topics and more in this episode.


  • Holy cow, what's going on with this stock? CMTV volatility
    Wow. .... So..... This is a regional BANK chain. Granted, it serves a not-so-very-populated area in Northern Vermont. But $103M market-cap would be a tiny, microcap entity, in corporate terms. I'd never have thought a bank could operate that way, at that scale, in this day and age! Thanks for the responses.
  • Holy cow, what's going on with this stock? CMTV volatility
    Check out the market cap. Around $103 M doesn’t even put it in small-cap territory. Very small companies’ stocks tend to be both speculative and volatile.
    The numbers: Typical market capitalizations
    From the above: “Companies are typically divided according to market capitalization: large-cap ($10 billion or more), mid-cap ($2 billion to $10 billion), and small-cap ($300 million to $2 billion).”
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    Nope, $31T is the bill amassed when everyone does not pay their fair share.
    Bingo!
  • Holy cow, what's going on with this stock? CMTV volatility
    Check the volume of its trades. Zero shares most days; others a couple of hundred; occasionally a couple thousand. Out of 5.42M shares; 5.21M public float. No wonder some trades greatly affect the price.
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    Important to remember the intent of why legislation forcing debt limits was created in the first place.
    The intent was to give the Treasury more flexibility, not to constrain the Treasury or Congress.
    As noted in the first line of Congressional Research Service's report The Debt Limit: History and Recent Increases, "Congress has always restricted federal debt."
    https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL31967
    For more than half of the United States' existence, Congress restricted the federal debt by allowing no borrowing except as explicitly authorized. For example, Congress authorized the issuing of three series of 50 year bonds (2% 1906, 2% 1908, 3% 1911) for the specific purpose of building the Panama Canal.
    https://www.theherbstmancollection.com/panama-canal-loan
    Not only was borrowing restricted to explicitly authorized debt instruments, but usually the debt could not be rolled over. When Congress authorized the issuance of a bond, it did not authorize issuing a subsequent bond to pay for the first when it matured.
    Over time, Congress gradually changed how the federal government borrowed money. It delegated micromanging of the debt to the Treasury. Instead of Congress deciding how many bonds would be issued at what rates and at what maturities, this task was handed over to the Treasury. Congress also transitioned from borrowing individual amounts for specific purposes to setting a single aggregate borrowing limit that among other things enabled the rolling over of debt.
    In 1917, attached to the Second Liberty Bond Act, was a statement that read in part:
    It is obvious that the orderly and economic management of the public debt requires that the Treasury should have complete freedom in determining the character of securities to be issued and should not be confronted with any arbitrary limitation.
    https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/SRpt71-1836.pdf
    Congress still set a limit on the amount that the Treasury could borrow, but gave the Treasury free rein on the terms of the debt instruments. At the time, Congress set separate limits on different types of securities. Finally, in 1939 Congress created a single debt ceiling, giving Treasury even greater flexibility in determining the form as well as the terms of debt instruments.
    On debt before 1939, see:
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5866584/ (easier, shorter)
    https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w21799/w21799.pdf
    https://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2015/goode/pdf/sargentpaper.pdf
    (by same authors, slightly different material)
  • Holy cow, what's going on with this stock? CMTV volatility
    Check out the 1-month chart.
    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/cmtv?qsearchterm=cmtv
    I still don't own it, but continue to track it. I note an 8+ percent drop in a single DAY? But maybe I'm reading it wrong? The posted statistic on that day told me so, though. So, even if I'm misreading the chart, the reported numbers don't lie, anyhow. Charts make my head hurt.
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    Yes Capitalism always provides competitve advantage (and leverage) to size. Thats why large corporations always want to be #1 or #2 in their industry or they exit altogether.