@FD1000 - I don’t visit other boards. MFO is the best by far.
So if you want to claim credit here for predictions you made months earlier it seems only reasonable that you also post those predictions here at the time you make them.
And the MFO post you just put up is nearly 3 years old (February 2020).

These were just posted by Seafarer. Portfolio briefings on both the growth and income as well as the value funds. I always appreciate listening to Andrew Foster's briefings AND he has recently added Lydia So from Matthews as part of the team. She had a nice track record managing the Matthews Asia Small Companies fund so that's a strong addition. I'm also going to be digging more into the value fund based on David's recommendation
https://www.seafarerfunds.com/video/2022/12/ogi-portfolio-briefing/
https://www.seafarerfunds.com/video/2022/12/ovl-portfolio-briefing/

For sovereign ratings, it is the federal debt that matters. FRED has both the absolute
federal debt amounts and as % of GDP. At $31 trillion and 120% of GDP, it is high but not very high. The highest level reached was during the pandemic in 2020.
Total debt from all sources (federal, state/local, corporate, individual/household) looks very high but isn't that relevant.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=XdER
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=YcQu

comical, really dangerous
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/19/democratic-challenge-mccarthy-deals/

mmm...I started a thread https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1959/bond-future-musings
Keep reading until you get to a post saying "As promised, my posts about what I do would be late by weeks instead of days (you know why). Let's start from the end. My first "nibble" wasn't 1-2-5%, it was 20+% and within days I was in at 99+% first time after I sold early in 2022."
There are no longer posts within days of what I do, as I have done before. See this example
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55299/bond-mutual-funds-analysis-act-2/p2

@LewisBraham: true about risk of clash between India and Pakistan. Comparing what I’ve read about the shenanigans that go on daily on the Kashmir border, these guys outdo what the two Koreas have done at their border since 1953. I have visited the DMZ in Korea, a truly bizarre and frightening place for a peace lover. How they have avoided another outright war is a puzzle.

+1.

Gates/restricted-redemptions are spreading. After Blackstone BREIT, Starwood SREIT, now is KKR KREST.
@hank, recent posts on this thread have been on gates for nontraded-REITs that started a few months ago. Media posts have been alarmist on this, but these gates are allowed if requests exceed periodic & optional offers.
​https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/kkr-caps-withdrawals-real-estate-165237465.html

The wheel and democracy were/are inventions, as is capitalism. Humans are still greedy and fearful, but far more organized and less violent than we have been in the past. Debt would be less or non-existent if this were taxed appropriately:

Thanks for your thoughts Lewis.
Each of those concepts you mentioned were new discoveries (not inventions). IOW's new to man but not new to Earth's physics and capabilities under our sun since day one. But 'nothing new under the sun' refers to human nature (fear and greed and selfishness) which will never change and has us in the boat we are in today. $245,000 in debt per remaining US taxpayer. The last inflationary cycle in the 70's had Federal debt at <$1B and today's possible higher interest rate cycle (and along with it the upcoming problem of interest expense) with today's debt of $31T. I hope we emerge.... but the math is not encouraging. Dalio's work focused on 500 years of the history of capitalism and how debt always is the culprit in falling empires. Thus, history repeats itself. Reserve currency has enormous power.

thx @Davidrmoran / So he posted the prediction in early November of last year? (Didn’t seem that far back). ORNAX bottomed on October 27, 2022. A very good call on FD’s part if the early November date is correct ? ?
Here’s what FD1000 wrote 1/2/2023 - “I will invest hugely in bond OEFs in 2023, as I have done in the last several years.But, I must see an uptrend to be invested. I think 2023 will be a good year. You can make several % more in managed bond fund, this is where they shine. Think DODIX for higher rated bonds, HY Munis and good Multi (where I find my best ideas). I made 9.7% in 2022, mostly in 3 HY munis trades. See ORNAX (chart). The 3 trades were several days in May + July and several weeks in Nov. All are based on T/A.”
Looking at his January 2 post it appears FD is claiming that he invested in ORNAX 2 months earlier (about when it turned up). Is anyone looking for that early November ‘22 post by FD? I can’t seem to dig it up.

I posted in early 11/2022 that the turnaround in bonds started....1) Bad losses should turn to a nice rebound 2) we can see the end of rate increase, no need to wait 3) the charts/uptrend gave a clear signal 4) Inflation starts to go down).
I went from investing under 1% to 99+%. I also posted that HY Munis is my favorite category and gave ORNAX as an example. Schwab lets you buy Muni funds in IRA while Fidelity doesn't.
Basically, since 11/2022, all my money is in HY Muni in 2 funds.

tnx

@shipwreckedandalone I wonder if the T-Rexes and other dinosaurs, when they spied the Chicxulub asteroid descending towards them during the Cretaceous period, thought, "There is nothing new under the sun." Or if the Neandertals thought that when they saw the homo sapien tribes approaching? Or when a Sumerian King first saw a wheel rolling towards him in Mesopotamia? Or what the royals in Europe thought of American and French democracy? Or what the Newtonian physicists thought when they first heard of Einstein's quantum mechanics? Or what the editors of NewsWeek were thinking in 1995 when they published an article titled "The Internet? Bah!", which reacted against the idea that this silly digital blip was going to infiltrate and replace elements of our everyday lives? This screen we're all staring at right now is something very new under the sun historically speaking and it has radically altered life as we know it. Why is it guys like Dalio think only entrepreneurs can be innovative and change history--hint, too much Ayn Rand--but governments or ordinary humans can't? Yes, history is cyclical, but it also progresses, for better and for worse. Today, for instance, individual rights are better worldwide than they were 1,000 years ago, but our environment is so much worse. Both of those facts require new ways of thinking, about government and commerce especially.

MEGMX and MEM are underweight China. M* has the country at 27% in the index, while the Matthews funds hold only 10%. As @Graust points out, one can avoid the country altogether.

@FD1000 - Here’s what I wrote in this same thread on 1/1/23 …
”The talking heads and market gurus I monitor mostly speak optimistically of a splendid 2023 for longer dated bonds. In particular, Rick Rieder of Blackrock appears to have trouble ‘containing’ himself during interviews on this point.”
So I and Rieder might have gotten out in front of your freaking genius prediction. Can’t tell here what date you made your call. Your reference to date currently reads: “I posted in early 11/2022”. The number “11” would indicate late in 2022 (not early). No longer share my own market views, so can’t give my take on the present investment environment. But Rick Rieder, referenced above, is a pretty sharp bond dude.
Should add:
- The issue of whether someone investing for retirement wants to allocate 100% of their long-term money into government bonds (or any other type of bond) remains an open question - and something I’m not going to comment on.
- A mere mere 2.5 weeks into a new year is a very short time to assess that year’s total performance of any asset class.

I posted in early 11/2022 that the turnaround in bonds started....1) Bad losses should turn to a nice rebound 2) we can see the end of rate increase, no need to wait 3) the charts/uptrend gave a clear signal 4) Inflation starts to go down).
I went from investing under 1% to 99+%. I also posted that HY Munis is my favorite category and gave ORNAX as an example. Schwab lets you buy Muni funds in IRA while Fidelity doesn't.
Basically, since 11/2022, all my money is in HY Muni in 2 funds.

For the week ending on 1/18/23, neutral became the top sentiment (36.0%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (31.0%; below average); bearish became the middle sentiment (33.1%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -2.1% (below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); supply-chain disruptions; economy; the Fed (higher rates longer); dollar; crypto ice-age; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (47+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down (setback on Wednesday), bonds up, oil up, gold up, dollar down; several sentiment & seasonal indicators turned bullish. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=8&scrollTo=907

I couldn’t remember posting this topic. Check the date. A year old (January 2022). So my
comment in the OP “I’m leary of real estate as an investment at this time due to bubble-like valuations.” may no longer apply.
Real Estate funds, as a category, fell 25.67% in 2022 according to Morningstar.
-
EDIT - Wouldn’t you know? The morning after I posted the above, I came across possibly relevant article in MarketWatch so am sharing it here.
Blackstone CEO Says Two Big Bets Will Keep Paying Off for Its Real Estate
Excerpt: - Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman said exposure to warehouses and apartments buoyed its mega real estate fund in a punishing environment where some rivals lost up to a quarter of their value. In a Wednesday interview with Barron’s editor in chief David Cho at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Schwarzman said the Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, known as BREIT, weathered an environment of higher interest rates by avoiding areas of “real stress” in the real estate market, such as offices and shopping malls. BREIT, which is up about 8% through November, is concentrated in warehouses and apartments, two bets the chief executive said will continue to pay off. The online shopping boom and trend of bringing manufacturing capabilities back to the U.S. have benefited warehouses, while apartments have done well as people struggle to enter the housing market, Schwarzman noted.
This is a for-pay site, but may be possible to pull up article for free one time.

Blackstone/BX CEO Stephen Schwarzman said at WEF, Davos that nontraded-REIT BREIT was overweight in apartments and warehouses, and underweight in malls and offices. Most of its debt had maturity/duration (?) of 6.5 years, so it was less impacted by rising short-term rates. That is why it did better than some of its competitors.
As the article may be behind paywall, I have summarized his comments about BREIT; his other comments related to economy, Fed, etc. The 2nd link from FN-London has the same article and seems open.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/blackstone-ceo-breit-real-estate-fund-51674076115?mod=bol-social-tw
https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/blackstone-ceo-backs-real-estate-fund-to-thrive-in-tough-market-20230118?mod=author_panel