Maybe 50/50 HSGFX/BRK.B? Dunno

HSGFX +17.3% 1 YR
BRK.B +2.7% 1 YR
Combined: Performance +10%
Nice going @BaseballFan
Now - Please advise on where to put our money in 2023 :)

Recall that DODBX has changed investment policy recently to include some shorting. Its idea was to tame its high volatility. This is quite unusual for allocation/balanced funds, and DODBX may have had beginner's luck just as this bear was arriving.
Among the oldest allocation funds are VWELX (1929), LOMMX (1929-2022; liquidated), DODBX (1931). Not so old FPURX (1947) is also old enough.

I ended up down -11.41% in 2022, but that includes IRA withdrawals and some rearranging through the year. By that I mean exchanges between funds. I put a hefty amount into junk. I should have waited longer to do it. My favorite baby, PRWCX, ended-up just within the top 25% in its category, but still lost a bunch for the year. Still managed a goodly year-end pay-out. That's a GOOD thing, in a T-IRA.
I did not want to be out of the Market. I am very well aware that a big bunch of money is either made or missed on just several days per year, when irrational run-ups happen. PRISX disappointed. I'm holding it on a vastly reduced basis. Going to let my 5-stock stable run, in the brokerage acct. TRP won't allow buys into OEFs in a different fund company for less than $5k. That sucks wet dog fur, by the way.

I had an investment with Dodge a number of years ago, but left when they carried a heavy load of financial & got toasted in 07-08 .

Yes @Derf. I remember it well.
The last thing I would ever do is try to steer anyone into any particular fund. But I like to note that DODBX’s track record extends clear back to the 1930s. Longevity - if not consistent performance!
Thanks for the comments.

Thanks for the chart! Rough year for balanced funds for sure.
Many of my colleagues invested in target date funds and they were surprised by the level of loss they are having. They thought simply everything into one fund would be easier to manage. Some of them are near retirement. Ironically, stable value fund is available in our 401(k) plan.

DODBX in top 10% among peers in '22.

+1. @hank
It pays to be informed. Yet huge, big macro predictions like that one from the IMF must indeed be taken with a 50-pound bag of salt. There are so many variables. So many surprises can happen. What if the war against Ukraine by the Poot-bag comes to an end? What if we could suddenly begin to actually trust the cooked information coming out of China re: covid (and everything else?) What if Africa became educated, stable and on a path to sustained development, without the corruption and political instability which makes so many of them "shit-hole" countries? Same goes for Philippines and elsewhere. What if humanity as a whole (with a "w") suddenly woke up and saw the benefits of long-term thinking instead of short-term profits as the primary driver for decisions? What if we could finally manage to see each other in each other's face?
From The Vatican, lately. @LewisBraham wrote about it:
"No investment of money is morally neutral; “either God’s kingdom is being advanced by the assets we deploy, or it is being neglected and undermined,” said a new Vatican document."
Don't like the term, "God's Kingdom?" Think of it as The Common Good or Human Progress or Human Ethical Evolution.

Many moves made in late 2021 that helped/distracted this year.
1. Sold all bond funds to stable value, CDs, T bills and money market (just as we need 529 fund for our kids in college)
2. Bought commodity futures and energy and sold half of it last month
3. Sold all EM funds and bought conservative value overseas funds
4. Rotated from growth to value funds as value lagged for so many years (sheer dumb luck).
5. Reduced loss with dividend growth funds
5. Alternatives were flat.
6. Precious metals were flat in light of high inflation. Bitcoins must attracted the $.
For the year, we have a negative single digit loss. Hopefully we are in good position to do better in 2023.

RPHYX/RPHIX still managed to return below 3% for the year, as compared to a few banks/CUs that pay above 4%
This is an apples to oranges comparison, comparing past one year return for RPHYX with the current APY on MMAs. A retrospective comparison would be between a bank's one year return and RPHYX's one year return.
Some of the 4% accounts didn't even exist at the beginning of 2022. For example, Republic Bank of Chicago's Digital Money Market Account (4.25% APY) only started last August. Starting new account types (often requiring new money) is a common tactic among banks.
Or look at All America Bank's Mega Money Market Account, also with a 4.25% APY. That started the year with a 0.30% APY, not rising above 1% until nearly the end of June. Even by the end of October, it was only up to 2.5% APY.
Banks do look better prospectively. For bond funds, prospective means looking at SEC yield. RPHIX's last reported SEC yield is 3.27%. At first blush, that looks inferior to several higher yielding banks, including those that don't play fast and loose with new accounts and rates.
But compare carefully. That 3.27% is the SEC yield as of November 30th. American Bank's Mega MMA's rate was 2.5% APY until the last week of November when it jumped to 4.0% APY. For the moment, a few banks seem competitive, though not necessarily superior.
despite such a good distribution
This suggests a common confusion between YTM and current yield. What counts in the end is total return. Each time RPHYX / RPHIX makes a distribution, whether large or small, the NAV drops by about the size of the distribution. The size of the distribution has little bearing on total return.
Suppose a fund holds a single, deep discount bond. (HY funds typically buy bonds at substantial discounts.) The fund's NAV gradually increases as the bond ages. This "appreciation" is actually interest - that's part of the YTM.
When a bond finally matures (or is sold), that "appreciation" (interest) is recognized all at once, even though it really accrued over time. If the fund gathers up all this recognized "appreciation" (interest) and distributes it in December, that could explain the unusually large December div.
It might be more meaningful to take the excess distribution (above what one expected for the Dec div) and mentally allocate it evenly across all the months. This large div may be nothing more than an accounting artifact, much as annual cap gains distributions don't mean that a fund realized all its gains in December.

What worked was alternative funds. Had members exchanged their balanced funds either three years ago or just one year ago for REMIX, in the first instance, or PAEGX in the second, they would be crowing about their gains.
@LewisBraham was spot-on to point to PGAEX in June of '22 as a fund worth watching. That fund has made money for its entire short existence and with a very steady climb. BLNDX/REMIX was profiled by @DavidSnowball back in 2019 as an alternative fund that promised to deliver. It did so, but the ride was rough at certain junctures.
I did not get out of my balanced funds (JBALX, PRSIX, BRUFX) all at once or soon enough, so I did not see great gains from my REMIX stake. However, I do not have losses for 2022.

First: Thanks for telling me what I think.
Additionally: I simply was sharing a newsworthy story. It's no surprise to me.
I see Croatia has in the New Year moved to using the euro. We have a cousin employed over in Croatia. Re: currency values, I wonder whether that will help or hurt her, or be a neutral item in the Big Picture.
Yes, we here at MFO rarely talk about the miners, or other basic materials. WFG is on my watchlist. My PRNEX (Natural Resources) is up +7.11% for 2022. (Morningstar.) My own mileage DID vary. Kinda finished where I started with that fund in 2022.
I always pay attention to @yogibearbull.

The IMF and World Bank provide help to many developing countries through grants and loans. Some of their annual funding comes from developed countries. Both institutions are in unique positions to have global economic views that shouldn't be ignored.

+1.

“I might point out the esteemed Mr Giroux’s interests and motivations don’t necessarily align with individual investors.”

I think that’s a bit too darkly suggestive. But it does raise an interesting question of what the primary motivational factors are for managers who rise to the esteemed position of Barron’s Roundtable Member as well as whether historically their funds have performed better or worse after said ascension. In Giroux’s case, the motivation can hardly be to pull more money into his swollen (closed) fund. If the goal is to bring more assets into TROW it hasn’t gone very well to date, as money has been fleeing and their stock price has fallen sharply over the past year. I’d imagine members are well compensated for their work. Then again … why would someone running a 46 billion dollar fund be in need of additional compensation?
If the manager(s) of DODBX - one of my larger holdings - ever take a seat at that rountable and begin broadcasting their brightest new ideas to an adoring public … I think I’d sell the fund.
@Observant1 +1 / You succinctly and clearly stated in 120 words what it took me half a page to convey. Nicely done.

I can't assume the risk of being invested entirely in stocks.
I therefore utilize bonds (and "cash") to hedge equity losses.
Both equities and fixed income experienced losses in 2022 - this is a rare occurrence.
In late 2021, I sold my core bond holding (DODIX) which was ~16% of my portfolio.
Overall bond yields have risen significantly since 2021.
Although the Federal Funds rate will probably be increased a few more times,
the bulk of rate increases in this cycle may have already transpired.
I purchased DOXIX (replaced DODIX in 401k) on 12/30/22.
This is my core fixed income holding currently comprising ~19% of my portfolio.
The remainder of the portfolio's bond/cash position is in T-Bills and money markets now.
I'll likely purchase additional bonds/bond funds (possibly TIPS/Treasuries/munis) later in the year.

At the of the article it also highlighted the default risk of BL has increased.

Yet there’s a dark cloud to that silver lining. Some 90% of the record $615 billion in loans issued in 2021 were what is known as “covenant-lite” loans with weaker default protections.

Yes, PRWCX has outperformed Vanguard balanced index (60/40), 11.9% vs 16.9%, even though the balanced index is not exactly the right benchmark. The bank loan allocation has a small loss (TRP floating rate fund, -0.69%) while the total bond index used in VG banned fund lost -13.3%. Even though the growth stocks in PRWCX have not done well, the overall portfolio still outperformed by 4%.
At the time of the Roundtable discussion, the treasury yield curve has not been inverted until August this year. As of December 28, 2022, 10 year treasury yield is at 3.88% and the spreads between 2 mo, 3 mo and 10 mo to 10 year treasury are all negative. https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202212
Recent WealthTrack interview Giruox thought we may have a chance of not getting into a recession in 2023. I hope he is right and that is why I invest with him for a long time.
I will get back to bond finds again but it will be gradual over the entire year. Until the Fed lower the rate , I will stay with Tbill ladders even at 4-5% yield.

Best portfolio performance enhancer: exchanging DODIX for stable value fund in late 2021.
Worst portfolio performance detractor: holding VWILX in 2022 (-30.79% return).
My portfolio consisted of ~70% stocks and ~30% bonds/cash at the start of 2022.
Here are the 2022 Personal Rates of Return according to Vanguard and Fidelity.
Accounts are listed in descending order based on their total value.
401k
-8.02%
Taxable account #1
-8.50%
Roth IRA
-17.10%
Taxable account #2
-13.11%
HSA
Rate of Return info not available
My overall portfolio value (includes 401(k), Roth IRA, HSA contributions) declined 8.18% in 2022.

@hank, I saw LB's article. All I read is saying it may be or may be pretty close to thinking it may be time to consider bond funds again.

@MikeM - Yes, LB’s article seems to make the case for bonds - particularly floating rate types of lower credit quality. David Giroux is one proponent noted in the article. What I find interesting is that Giroux isn’t very far off from what he said a year ago. I posted a thread in January of last year on the Barron’s Roundtable and in it I quoted Giroux’s words:
Giroux: “The asset class today with the most attractive risk/reward profile is leveraged loans. I’ve taken leveraged loans to 12% of my portfolio …”
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59086/a-glimpse-into-barron-s-roundtable-part-1-january-17-print-edition
Somewhat paradoxically, his fund lost 12% during 2022. And, as if to further cement his bond credentials, in the same interview Giroux avowed ….
“I would make a bet that the 10-year doesn’t get above 2.5% in the next year.”

LB's article in Barron's looks at pros and cons of FR/BL.
Keep in mind that FR/BL are a subclass of HY and their rate resetting mechanism works fine when rates are rising or stable. If rates start declining, or economy finds itself in recession, then they will be hit hard like other HY. Davis Giroux runs a capital appreciation fund PRWCX with some exposure to credit spreads and he won't be doing B&H for FR/BL.
Fido FFRHX, 1-yr (default). Switch to 3+ years to see volatility. https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FFRHX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80706396341

My plan WAS to buy I-Bonds in 2023, but stingy rate on 11/1/22 changed that. IMO, 5-yr TIPS held to maturity are better (1.66% real rate plus CPI) OR I may just feed the bear a bit (-:).

Same here. Plus, the new rate in May seems pretty likely to be even more underwhelming.

@MikeM I'll be watching pricing in the below list to discover when and where the money is traveling. The FED can control the short duration end for yields, but the markets may control the other durations.
Last weeks pricing performance.
--- AGG = -1% / -13.02% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = -.01% / -1% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = -.18% / -3.88% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = -.58% / -9.5% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = -1% / -15.2% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = -.46% / -12.2% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- STPZ = -.22% / -4.47% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -1.1% / -31.7% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = -2.55% / -31.2% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = -3.3% / -39.2% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = -3.67 / -41.3% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = +5.4% / +93.3% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = -7.9/ -72.6% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
--- BAGIX = -.58% / -13.35% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
*** Other, for reference:
--- HYG = -1% / -11% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- LQD = -1.52% / -17.9% (corp. bonds, various quality)
--- FZDXX = 4.26% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund