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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • tax loss selling question
    If your taxable income after deductions was $0, and there were no other capital gains or losses, then $1,000 tax-loss will offset fully taxable $1,000 withdrawal from T-IRA.
    But if you had ordinary income from all sources, net of deductions, of $50K, then $1,000 tax loss will reduce it to $49K. It would be hard to say which part of the income (including $1,000 withdrawal from T-IRA) was offset.
  • tax loss selling question
    Probably I'm not understanding this correctly. I have an IRA, with required distributions. Those distributions of course are taxed. Lets assume that the tax due is $1000.
    If I were to sell an asset and take a $1000 loss, would that loss offset the tax on the IRA distribution? Somehow that seems too good to be true.
  • tax loss selling question
    +1 Sven I learned that with the ultra-short bond funds in 2020 !
  • PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth Fund re-opening to new investors (Here's your chance to get in!)
    The Primecap funds have certainly endured a few years of bad luck -- POAGX in particular was perfectly positioned to crater when covid struck as it had outsized stakes in things like airlines and cruise lines. Yet the fund is idiosyncratic, that's for sure. All three of the funds have seen significant redemptions, resulting in large capital gains distributions for several years (worsening tax-adjusted performance). Anyone considering a new investment should take a look at the portfolio and be comfortable with the huge chunk of biotech and pharmaceuticals in there. It's almost a healthcare fund.

    You bring up some very good points.
    Primecap is a benchmark-agnostic firm and tends to favor certain industries.
    The following data was gleaned from M* reports published July 2022.
    POAGX: ~20% in biotech/pharma, ~13% in semis
    VPMAX: ~20% in biotech/pharma, ~13% in semis
    VPCCX: ~18% in biotech/pharma, ~11% in semis
    Primecap-managed funds may underperform common benchmarks for several consecutive calendar years.
    Investors should be prepared for this possibility.
    POAGX: lagged Russell Mid-Cap Growth from 2018 - 2021
    VPMAX: lagged Russell 1000 and S&P 500 from 2019 - 2021
    VPCCX: lagged Russell 1000 and S&P 500 from 2018 - 2021
    All three funds had top-decile 10 Yr. and 15 Yr. fund category returns through 11/30/2022.
    Primecap-managed funds can generate large capital gains distributions
    and are best held in tax-deferred or tax-exempt accounts.
  • Morningstar Inches Closer to 4% with 3.8% Safe Withdrawal Rate
    Excerpt from The Long View podcast episode (published 12/14/2021) featuring Mr. Bengen.
    Benz: How about the reverse of that where you believe that equity valuations are notably scary? Would it be advisable to potentially take the equity weighting way down with the assumption that you would ramp it up later on?
    Bengen: Yes. And essentially, that's what I'm doing in my portfolio. I'm only about 20% equities right now, because I think evaluations are ridiculous. And if you look at the chart of the CAPE, you'll see that when it reaches these peaks, in 1929, and it did so in the mid-60s, and then around 2000, that there was a sharp decline from that. It may take a number of years for it to happen. But it has always happened historically, and I don't know why this would be any different, the current environment. I just can't predict when it will happen. It will be six months, two years, who knows. But I'm a believer that the mean reversion--if we don't have mean reversion, it means we're in a whole new era and that the historical data doesn't mean really that much. So, I guess we'll have to wait and see.
    Link
  • Change in management advisory team of the Walthausen Small Cap Value Fund
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1418191/000141304222001076/fp0081188-1_497ixbrl.htm
    Excerpt:
    At a meeting of the Board of Trustees of Walthausen Funds (the “Trust”) on December 8, 2022, the Trustees of the Trust approved an interim investment advisory agreement with North Star Investment Management Corporation (“North Star”) under which North Star will assume responsibility as adviser to of the Walthausen Small Cap Value Fund (the “Fund”) on December 15, 2022. Therefore, all references to Walthausen & Co., LLC in the Fund’s prospectus are replaced with North Star. There is no change to the Fund’s investment strategy.
    SAI:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418191/000141304222001078/walthsains.htm
    North Star Funds:
    https://nsinvestfunds.com/
  • Hedge Fund Manager Ken Griffin Sues IRS Over “Unlawful Disclosure” of His Tax Info to ProPublica
    I think this is just a publicity stunt from Griffin, because the federal tort claims act says you cannot sue the federal government unless a federal court agrees. It is not clear, either, how he was damaged by the release.
    From Wikipedia:
    Under the FTCA, "[t]he United States [is] liable ... in the same manner and to the same extent as a private individual under like circumstances, but [is not] liable for interest prior to judgment or for punitive damages." 28 U.S.C. § 2674. Federal courts have jurisdiction over such claims, but apply the law of the state "where the act or omission occurred". 28 U.S.C. § 1346(b). Thus, both federal and state law may impose limitations on liability. The FTCA exempts, among other things, claims based upon the performance of or failure to perform a "discretionary function or duty".[1]
    The IRS argument here will simply be " If we had been given the resources that we asked for, ( but denied by GOP administrations and Congress) this would not have happened".
  • Are the risks of Financial Account Aggregation really worth it?
    @yogibearbull
    Do you manually enter each transaction? M* Portfolio still lets you download a file with positions and average price, although M* Investor still refuses to allow this.
    Has anyone heard of any brokerage account hacks?
    I always assumed that if you used Schwab's offer to use an aggregator, the credentials were at the aggregator, not at Schwab, so therefore protected only to extent aggregator protects them. Any hint of a data breach and their business would collapse, but still who knows how good their security is?
    Nor have I been able to document how they claim that they only get transactions and balances without being able to trade, move money etc. Once a hacker got your PW etc, they could do anything they wanted, obviously.
    While I have not tracked it down yet, it would be interesting to compare Schwab policies with a full service broker like Morgan Stanley, where it is impossible to trade without a human being.
    You would think your money is safer at Morgan Stanley, but getting access to an account illegally would still allow transfers out without a human involved. However, adding a new account requires two factor authorization, and trial deposits just as it does at Schwab.
    I doubt your broker monitors accounts so carefully that they would alert you to something unusual
    But neither Schwab nor Morgan Stanley will allow you to set alerts to notify you of all account activity; Schwab will send trade alerts, but not deposit, withdrawal alerts and MS only sends balance alerts. You get an email if there is a trade, but not what it is.
    I assume ( but I do not know) that since Schwab requires a manual sell order to raise cash, they would not transfer money out of the account without the sell order being placed ( and maybe settled too?), if your cash balance is low. I don't think you would be notified of the trade until it occurred.
    My bank and credit card text me every time there is any activity of $0.01 or more. If brokerages had this function, it would be added security that nothing could happen without your knowledge.
    Of course, you might hear about the fake trial deposits and intervene in time, but you might not. And once the money leaves, being told about it a few seconds later would not stop it leaving. With the ease of money transfer today, your money would probably be in Nigeria before you opened the email or logged on to see what was happening.
    In the past, when I asked about risks , Personal Capital rep claims aggregating everything would increase security because you could see any new transactions immediately.
    Does anyone have any experience with this?
  • Ex-FTX CEO Bankman-Fried arrested in Bahamas as U.S. files charges
    If anyone is really interested here is the most complete list of SBF contributions that I know of. Lots of GOP guys and girls including $ 3,500,000 to Mitch.
    Porkers really lined up at the trough
    While we all know that "money talks" it is always instructive to see how politicians say one thing and take money from another.
    It is unclear what SBF thought he was getting from all this, and what he wanted in terms of Crypto regulations.
    https://popular.info/
    Judd at Popular information is an incredibly insightful investigative reporter a who has daily emails about where dark money is going, and who is behind various trends in politics etc.
    24 politicians and one PAC pledge to donate or return money from FTX execs
    1. Representative Josh Harder (D-CA) received $2,900 from Bankman-Fried. A spokesperson for Harder told Popular Information that he plans to donate the funds to the Stockton Food Bank. 
    2. Senator Tina Smith (D-MN) received $5,800 from Bankman-Fried. Her campaign said she “has already donated the campaign contributions from Mr. Bankman-Fried to Planned Parenthood North Central States.”
    3. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) received $5,800 from Bankman-Fried and $2,900 from Salame. Her campaign said that both donations were given to “Storyknife Writers Retreat in Homer, Alaska.” 
    4. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) received $5,800 from Bankman-Fried. Sam Runyon, a spokesperson for Manchin, told Popular Information that Manchin donated the money to Mountaineer Food Bank in West Virginia, and that he “hopes this donation can provide some relief to those who need it most.” 
    5. Senator John Boozman (R-AR) received $5,800 from Bankman-Fried. His campaign said he has “donated those funds to charity.”
    6. Senator-elect Peter Welch (D-VT) received $2,900 from Bankman-Fried. In a statement to Popular Information Welch said, “On November 16th, after serious public allegations against Sam Bankman-Fried, I donated the $2,900 contribution my campaign received from Mr. Bankman-Fried to the Warmth Support Program to help Vermonters keep their homes warm this winter.”
    7. Representative-elect Morgan McGarvey (D-KY) received $2,900 from Bankman-Fried. McGarvey’s campaign told Popular Information, “We have donated that amount of money to Family Scholar House, a nonprofit in Louisville that provides a range of services, including financial education for disadvantaged single parents and their children in Louisville.”
    8. Representative-elect Valerie Foushee (D-NC) received $2,900 from Bankman-Fried. Foushee told Popular Information in a statement, “The situation with FTX is both distressing and unsettling. When I accepted a $2,900 donation from Mr. Bankman-Fried, I was unaware of his illegitimate business dealings. In light of recent developments, I cannot, in good conscience, retain his donation to my campaign, and have since donated these funds to a nonprofit in Chapel Hill, EMPOWERment Inc., whose mission is to serve the community through their steadfast work to provide affordable housing and foster economic development. I sincerely hope that anyone who may have been wronged in this situation will be made right." 
    9. Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) received $5,800 from Bankman-Fried. He pledged to donate the amount to “an appropriate cause.” 
    10. Representative Ritchie Torres (D-NY) received $2,900 from Bankman-Fried. Torres donated the amount to “a local charity to assist with holiday food distributions to families in need.” 
    11. Representative Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) received $5,800 from Bankman-Fried. Jeffries donated the amount to the American Diabetes Association.
    12. Representative Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) received $5,800 from Bankman-Fried. A spokesperson for Gottheimer said he is donating the amount to charity. 
    13. Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) received $5,700 from Bankman-Fried. Booker’s campaign told Popular Information that he “donated the $5,700 contribution from [Bankman-Fried] to a New Jersey-based charity.” 
    14. Representative Dave Joyce (R-OH) received $2,900 from Salame. Joyce’s office told Popular Information that he plans to donate the money to the Greater Cleveland Food Bank. 
    15. The American Patriots PAC, a group “dedicated to electing conservative heroic veterans,” received $150,000 from FTX. The group told Popular Information that the donation has been returned.
    16. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) received $20,800 from Bankman-Fried. According to Bloomberg, Stabenow plans to “donate the money to a charity in her state.”
    17. Representative-elect Becca Balint (D-VT) received $2,900 from Bankman-Fried. According to the VTDigger, Balint plans to donate the funds to “the Vermont-based Committee on Temporary Shelter.”
    18. Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) received $2,900 from Bankman-Fried. The Wall Street Journal reported that a representative for Collins said that the funds would be donated to charity. 
    19. Beto O’Rourke, the former Democratic candidate for governor of Texas, received $1 million from Bankman-Fried. According to Bloomberg, O’Rourke had already returned the donation to Bankman-Fried before FTX announced its bankruptcy. 
    Popular Information previously reported that Representatives Kevin Hern (R-OK), Chuy Garcia (D-IL), and Salud Carbajal (D-CA) donated campaign contributions received from FTX executives. Senator John Hoeven (R-ND), who received $5,800 from Bankman-Fried, also pledged to “give the contribution to whatever reimbursement fund is set up by the bankruptcy court.” Representative David Schweikert (R-AZ) and Senators Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) also told the Daily Beast they would be donating the funds received from FTX executives.
    Largest recipients of FTX cash stay quiet
    Many candidates and PACs that received donations from FTX executives did not return requests for comment. This includes some of the top recipients of donations, including the House Majority PAC, which received $6 million from Bankman-Fried; Mitch McConnell’s Super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, which received $1 million from FTX and $2.5 million from Salame; the Democratic National Committee, which received $865,000 from Bankman-Fried; the NRCC, which received $184,800 from FTX executives; and the DCCC, which received $156,400 from FTX executives. 
    Other major recipients that did not respond to requests for comment include Senator Maggie Hassan (D-NH) ($20,600), Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) ($11,600), and Representative Ronny Jackson (R-TX) ($10,000). The campaign for Jake Auchincloss (D-MA) ($5,800) declined to comment on the record. 
  • Morningstar Inches Closer to 4% with 3.8% Safe Withdrawal Rate
    Forecasting market return is challenging. Some of M* assumption are a bit off. CPI remains elevated and Nov 2022 is at 7.1%, far from the 2,2%. This year the broader bond index, BND, is down -13% in 2022. It will take a few year for bonds to normalize back to 3-5% range.
    According to Morningstar Investment Management, the 30-year outlook for various stock categories ranged from 9% to 12% in this year’s research. Expected bond returns rose from 3% to 5%, and of course, inflation expectation jumped from 2.2% in 2021 to 2.8% in 2022.
  • Ex-FTX CEO Bankman-Fried arrested in Bahamas as U.S. files charges
    Bankman-Fried funneled an estimated $262,200 to Republicans throughout the 2021-2022 election cycle, according to Federal Election Commission records. But those contributions to Republicans paled in comparison to the nearly $40 million he contributed to Democratic campaigns.
  • JP Morgan conversion dates of four mutual funds to ETFs
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217286/000119312522305383/d423634d497.htm
    JPMorgan Equity Focus Fund
    JPMorgan High Yield Municipal Fund
    JPMorgan Limited Duration Bond Fund
    JPMorgan Sustainable Municipal Income Fund
  • Are the risks of Financial Account Aggregation really worth it?
    Info that @Observant1 provided from Fido is similar to what I have seen at other places too. Please read it carefully. Banks/brokers say that if you share your login with ANYONE, they are no longer responsible. I assume that ANYONE to mean relatives, friends, 3rd party a/c aggregators, etc. Question to ask is who is responsible if something goes wrong?
    I think that my discomfort level about 3rd party aggregators rose significantly years ago when in addition to account# and password, they started asking for info on other forms of authentications - images (this system is getting old), authentication codes, etc.
    As others have noted, there are risks in anything we do. But I decided that this risk from aggregators isn't worth for me. I do use Portfolio services (old M* Portfolio - offline, new M* Investor, Stock Rover) but there too, I don't link my brokerage accounts and rely on manual update of transactions.
  • Morningstar Inches Closer to 4% with 3.8% Safe Withdrawal Rate
    For me, the change in the rate more so than the actual percentage from this study instils the fact it does matter where in the market cycle you start your retirement.
    https://401kspecialistmag.com/morningstar-inches-closer-to-4-with-3-8-safe-withdrawal-rate/
    Morningstar has risen its safe withdrawal rate to 3.8%, a stark increase from last year’s 3.3%, according to its latest annual model.
    As in their 2021 study, Morningstar analyzed rates using a conservative base portfolio of 50% stock/50% bonds for new retirees with a 30-year retirement horizon and a 90% probability of success, finding that as stocks and bonds improve next year, so will the safe withdrawal rate.

  • tax loss selling question
    Unfortunately, 11/30/22 distribution would be WITHIN the +/- 30 day wash sale window.
    Good news is that only the distribution amount would be disqualified due to wash sale. In case of partial sale, that amount would be added to cost basis of the remainder, so basically, the wash sale defers the tax loss. If total sale, then there would be no way for the broker to adjust the cost basis and it won't be shown in 1099.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/14/22
    For the week ending on 12/14/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (44.6%; high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (24.3%; low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (31.1%; average); Bull-Bear Spread was -20.3% (high). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); supply-chain disruptions; recession (2023?); the Fed (+50 bps hike; slower pace but higher longer); dollar (reversing); crypto Winter; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (42+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds flat, oil up sharply, gold up, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=8&scrollTo=868
  • Ex-FTX CEO Bankman-Fried arrested in Bahamas as U.S. files charges
    Your guess as good as mine
    Base in chart appears BTCUSD consolidate w short term bottom near 14k - 16k in May then again october...
    Long term nobody knows depend if Feds really pivot and market more enthused about Cryptos in general/ more free monies pumped into system once more folks have lessen margin loans.. So many factors go against btcusd - extremely speculative , retail investors no monies (many bankrupted) , so many better vehicles out there, lots pp scare and ran away, no trust in system, no bank supports, many crooks trying to steal your monies and many crypto wallets have no fdic/central banks nor govt backing up...
    Lots folk btcusd maybe 8k by spring 2023
    I am adding but very little.. My advisor recommended before Every 100 dollars in stocks maybe 1 2 $ in cryptos (I do 50 cents)
    Who know btcusd could be 60k by end 2024...aunty wood says one mill by 2030
  • Hedge Fund Manager Ken Griffin Sues IRS Over “Unlawful Disclosure” of His Tax Info to ProPublica
    I do wonder when someone is worth $32 billion like Griffin what the point is of spending $54 million to fight a state tax to save $80 million? It reminds me of a story John Bogle was fond of recounting:
    At a party given by a billionaire on Shelter Island, the late Kurt Vonnegut informs his pal, author Joseph Heller, that their host, a hedge fund manager, had made more money in a single day than Heller had earned from his wildly popular novel, Catch-22, over its whole history. Heller responds, “Yes, but I have something he will never have – enough.”
    The super-rich fighting taxation of every sort also seems shockingly ignorant of history. Eventually, such gross inequalities can lead to the pitchforks and torches scenarios outside their castles. So, it almost makes financial sense to accept a fair tax rate when you have so much. Pay for the bread and circuses to keep the plebeians like us happy. Moreover, how can the rich stay rich in industry if they don't believe in taxation for things like public education? Where's their educated workforce going to come from?
    And if they make stuff, who will be their consumers? From NPR: "In January 1914, Henry Ford started paying his auto workers a remarkable $5 a day. Doubling the average wage helped ensure a stable workforce and likely boosted sales since the workers could now afford to buy the cars they were making." I guess, though, if you run a hedge fund, you don't need to worry about the average consumer buying your product. Maybe therein lies the problem, a complete mental disconnect from how ordinary people live their lives.
  • FOMC Statement, 12/14/22
    But TIPS/real-rates moved up 4-5 bps across the board. Nominal yields didn't move much. So, inflation-expectations (nominal yield - TIPS yield) came down a bit.
    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202212
    CME FedWatch is meaningless today. It should be OK tomorrow.