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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Strange VIX, SKEW, SP500
    Today, PPI +1.1% (vs exp +1.5%), core PPI +2.8% (vs exp +2.9%). So, if (wholesale) PPI << (retail) CPI, that means future CPI will decline.</blockquote>
    Will U.S. equity markets rise or fall after today’s 2 PM FOMC announcement?
    Mostly going nowhere today. Unusual lack of volatility in recent days.
  • Treasuries Flood is Coming
    I’ve been rolling my 3,6,12-month t-bills while still holding (for me) considerable cash in a VG money market settlement account. It made sense to me given that t-bills are not subject to state tax and I live in a high tax state (NY).
  • Strange VIX, SKEW, SP500
    Today, PPI +1.1% (vs exp +1.5%), core PPI +2.8% (vs exp +2.9%). So, if (wholesale) PPI << (retail) CPI, that means future CPI will decline.
  • Vanguard raises fees, mins on legacy (fund) platform and brokerage platform
    I resent these efforts to force people to stop all paper statements. Some firms do allow selective paper statements, and I continue to insist on tax forms on paper.
    I find it almost impossible to scroll though a pdf of a 1099B and find what I need, especially when I need to determine what portion of tx exempt dividends are exempt from state taxes.
    Being forced to print out statements only transfers the cost of the statements from the brokerage to you, the customer
  • Fidelity - same day fund exchange restrictions and my experience
    I have been complaining about the above for over 10 years to Fidelity reps/supervisors. Several reps told me it's a finra/sec rules but it's not correct. It's Fidelity's own imposed rules.
    As a trader, it's just annoying and wasting extra time. When I'm invested, I want to be in all the time and not wait an extra day since I hardly ever use the exchange feature by selling/buying funds from the same family funds. The use of 90% of the proceeds for the buy order is also annoying, especially when I sell bond funds on regular days when they move less than 0.5%
    Over the years, I see a deterioration in the knowledgeable reps. Years ago, I hardly ever had any issues calling a rep to enter the buy trade, in the last couple of years, I get replies such as You can't do it and must wait another day or I need to change you a fee. In these cases, I ask to talk to a supervisor to solve the problem. It can take up to 30 minutes.
    At Schwab it's a lot easier, I just enter the sell first, and seconds later, I enter the buy order, and I'm responsible to make sure the buy amount is small than the sell. In most cases, I trade bonds OEFS and why I use 99%. The process takes 1-2 minutes, and no reps are involved.
  • Roll Breakeven Yield
    For taxable account we keep rolling our 3 mo and 6 mo ladder. Not sure when the yield curve will be like a year from now. However, the longer end of the curve is gradually rising. Have been watching the 2 mo-10 yr spread.
  • Does Fido charge to reinvest dividends in a non NTF fund?
    Has this in-kind transfer happened or are you thinking about it?
    D&C doesn't seem to be supported at Fidelity platform (NTF or TF). D&C tickers don't even pull up a quote at Fido site. So, such in-kind transfer may not even be allowed.
    No direct experience.
    D&C funds are available with TF at Fido.
    The Fido search seems to be broken. If you search from its fund research page, you can find them: https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/256219106
  • Vanguard raises fees, mins on legacy (fund) platform and brokerage platform
    @yogibb said,
    FWIW, I like to receive some things via snail mail, but I am OK to get other stuff via email. So, on sites that allow selectivity (Fido, etc), I only get statements and 1099s via snail mail, but the rest (confirmations, prospectuses, junk) via email. But I resist all or nothing choice. It isn't just that I could save the PDFs, but that if something happens to me, my family won't have access to online a/c, info, statements, etc. Having some paper in hand still has value.
    You got a point there; just in case something happen to me unexpectedly. I print out the year-end statement and keep them on a binder. Same go for Fidelity and other investments. Printed 1099s are made for doing tax returns. Over the years, I have gradually reduced receiving the paper forms and saving only the quarterly and annual statements; now only the annual statements. It is easier and keep track of them electronically.
    My wife has access to all accounts and we spend time to review our finance. Not easy to plan for the unexpected and mental decline in the future. Reading @Lynn Bolin article is very helpful for seeking an advisor and perhaps to manage part of our asset.
  • Vanguard raises fees, mins on legacy (fund) platform and brokerage platform
    I saw Vanguard's 09/2022 deadline to "force" conversion to VG Brokerage as a separate action; "or else", huge penalties (new) for continuing to have mutual fund only accounts. I reluctantly converted - took a while for me (Trust a/c + IRAs), but was easy for my wife (IRAs only).
    Waiver of fees by e-delivery was identical before 09/2022 - whether mutual fund only a/c or brokerage a/c. But that also changed after 09/2022 - e-delivery no longer provided fee break for mutual fund a/c. I also delayed this choice as far as I could but went with e-delivery after the "forced" conversions.
    FWIW, I like to receive some things via snail mail, but I am OK to get other stuff via email. So, on sites that allow selectivity (Fido, etc), I only get statements and 1099s via snail mail, but the rest (confirmations, prospectuses, junk) via email. But I resist all or nothing choice. It isn't just that I could save the PDFs, but that if something happens to me, my family won't have access to online a/c, info, statements, etc. Having some paper in hand still has value.
  • Treasuries Flood is Coming
    It's not just a flood, it's a tsunami. My headline. Fortune by way of Yahoo.
    Now a $1 trillion tsunami of high-quality government paper is slated to hit markets before September, at a time when Michele warns the Fed is already draining $95 billion in liquidity—the oxygen that fuels asset prices—every month through quantitative tightening.
    Students of seismic events, and informed residents of coastal areas, will remember that tsunamis are preceded by water calmly receding from the coast line.
    The article is actually about Bob Michele's view that:
    “This [regional bank failures] does remind me an awful lot of that March-to-June period in 2008,” Michele told CNBC in an interview on Friday, citing the three-month rally that followed the Bear deal. “The markets viewed it as: there was a crisis, there was a policy response and the crisis is solved.”
    Who he? I didn't know either.
    Bob Michele, who is responsible for managing $700 billion in assets for the world’s most valuable bank [JP Morgan], believes there are too many current parallels to the 2008 global financial crisis to simply dismiss the idea of a repeat out of hand.
    He also sees problems in commercial real estate.
    More than $1.4 trillion in U.S. CRE loans are due to mature by 2027, with $270 billion alone coming due this year, according to real estate data provider Trepp. Much of this debt will have to be rolled over at higher rates.
    “There are a lot of companies sitting on very low-cost funding,” Michele said. “When they go to refinance, it will double, triple or they won’t be able to [roll it over] and they’ll have to go through some sort of restructuring or default.”
  • Vanguard raises fees, mins on legacy (fund) platform and brokerage platform
    Since Sept 2022, opting into e-delivery only gets some annual fees waived. To get annual mutual fund fees (legacy platform) waived, one must meet the minimum Vanguard investment requirement. In 2022 that was $1M; it is about to go up to $5M.
    Mutual fund-only customers will need to pay an annual $20 fee per fund starting in September [2022], FA-IQ sister publication Ignites writes, citing Vanguard’s website.
    That’s on top of the $20 annual account fee, according to the publication.
    While clients can avoid the account fee by going paperless or meeting other standards, the same option doesn’t extend to the per-fund fee, Ignites writes, citing the disclosure.
    https://www.financialadvisoriq.com/c/3717064/478154/vanguard_drive_clients_brokerage_platform
  • Vanguard raises fees, mins on legacy (fund) platform and brokerage platform
    Vanguard is raising its fees again if you use their legacy platform or get paper statements. Starting September 1, you will have to have $5M (was $1M) invested with Vanguard to avoid a $25 (was $20) annual fee. Likewise, if you don't meet this new min in a brokerage account, you'll be charged $25 annually for paper statements.
    https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=7292940#p7292940
    History
    Through early 2022:
    - Legacy platform: $20/fund - waived w/$10K in fund
    - Brokerage platform: $20/brokerage account - waived w/$10K in Vanguard assets in account or w/e-delivery
    - Fees also waived with combined Vanguard investments of $50K across all accounts
    September 30, 2022
    - Legacy platform: $20/fund - waived with Flagship status ($1M in Vanguard investments)
    - Brokerage platform: $20/brokerage account - waived with Flagship status or e-delivery
    (Start date was for existing accounts and is found in @LewisBraham's Barron's article.)
    June 1, 2023 (September 1 for existing accounts) the new fee schedule kicks in.
    https://investor.vanguard.com/client-benefits/brokerage-fees-commissions
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    This time, -20% down for SP500 from Jan 2022 high was in June 2022. Then, +20% up from Oct 2022 low was recent. That 284 days.
    Other times have to be checked similarly. It's hard to do this on phone, so I may post on this later. In long & deep bear market of early-1970s, there may have been false signals too.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    @Charles, check out Barron's,
    TRADER. Stocks rose as the wall of worry faded away. The RALLY broadened beyond large-caps to small/mid-caps and cyclicals (financials, industrials). The SP500 was in a bear market for 248 days (Edit - the longest since 1948) and it may reach a new high that is +10% away. Of course, there are economic data, the FOMC meeting(s), and a possible recession along the way. Enjoy the rally while it lasts.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-gains-as-wall-of-worry-crumbles-what-happens-next-75e1dc1e?mod=past_editions
    You may be thinking of the time it took for the SP500 to recover fully, and that was about 5 years after the GFC; however, the allocation funds recovered much faster.
    What am I missing here? The 2008/09 bear market, the 73/74 bear market were much longer and deeper than the one in 2022. And what about 2000-02?
  • Floating rate funds in rising, flat, and falling rate environments
    Lots of good points.
    My caution with FR/BL is just going forward. It has been a good time for FR/BL from mid-2022 to ??? If one has them, hold for now; may be still good for a quick trade. Things do change rapidly for them and lot of backward-looking data don't capture that. FWIW, when things do turn ugly, FR/BL holder don't know what hit them.
    +1. The time to have bought was when the Fed was rapidly raising rates. One positive though is judging from recent outflows these funds haven’t been too embraced by investors yet.
    As for one month momentum be careful. Bank loan funds are notorious for what is best one month will lag the next. Same with junk bonds. A case in point FAFRX which was a one month momentum play last month and discussed in another forum has seriously lagged this past month.
  • Floating rate funds in rising, flat, and falling rate environments
    DT, good analysis. The CME-fedwatch-tool shows no rate increase this week, a 62% chance increase of 0.25 next month, and a decrease of 0.25% by year's end. Looks to me, not much change while the Fed fund rate stays elevated.
    If I search by Sharpe(similar to risk-adjusted performance), OOSAX comes as number one. This is a unique fund with more foreign bonds than the US. SD=3.89.
    PRFRX+MWFLX are good choices with a bit lower SD than OOSAX.
    For momo seekers, one month's performance is...OOSAX=1.76%...PRFRX=0.98%...MWFLX=0.77%
  • Floating rate funds in rising, flat, and falling rate environments
    The low level of estimated volatility of total returns for the floating rate ETF class of bonds reported in this recent table from Wealthfront caught my eye. That characteristic appears to tie in with the relative stability of the median annual returns shown in the table above.
    imageScreenshot-2023-06-13-at-05-55-46-Wealthfront-Automated-Bond-Portfolio-Methodology-White-Paper-Wealt" />
    From: Wealthfront White Paper
  • Floating rate funds in rising, flat, and falling rate environments
    Below are 3 posts about FR/BL, that I made on another MFO thread last week:
    "I would just note that Floating Rate/Bank Loan category of bond funds, has been doing pretty well this calendar year. I continue to maintain a watchlist of about a dozen funds in the FR/BL category, and everyone of them has positive performance for one week, one month, 3 months, and YTD. The FR/BL category has historically performed well in Flat and Rising Rate Markets, TR performance has a positive trend this year, and rates do not seem likely to fall anytime soon."
    "There is always a risk/reward decision to be made in investing in bond oefs. FR/BL did very well for many years, in the last 10 years, when rates were flat and certainly not rising. As a junk bond category, (most BLs are B rated), I frequently used them in the past, as a "lower risk" option for junk bond investing. When I read the Feds intentions regarding rates, I am not struck with the impression that a rate drop, is very likely this calendar year. On the contrary, I see the Feds raising rates very gradually the rest of the year, and trying to find their happy place for a smooth landing, and trying to keep inflation under control."
    "I have a watchlist of about a dozen BL/FR funds. Everyone of them are positive for 1 week, 1 month, 3 month, and YTD. "If" I choose to put some money to work in this category, I would consider some of the lower risk options (according to SD and M*). A few examples include PRFRX, SAMBX, MWFLX, etc. TRowe Price PRFRX has a SD of 3.76, an M* Risk Rating of Below Average, TR of one week of .72/one month of .78/3 month of 1.26/YTD of 4.59. Metropolitan West MWFLX has a SD of 3.56, M* Risk Rating of Low, TR of one week of.60/1 month of .79/3 month of 1.77/YTD of 4.94."