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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • China reportedly orders its airlines to halt Boeing jet deliveries amid US trade war
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    Carriers also asked to stop purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US firms, report says
    China has reportedly ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing jets, the latest move in its tit-for-tat trade war with the US. The Chinese government has asked carriers to stop purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from American companies, according to a Bloomberg News article, which cited people familiar with the matter.
    The order was reported to have come after the country raised its retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 125% on Friday in response to Donald Trump’s levies on Chinese imports totaling 145%. Beijing was also said to be considering ways to support airlines that lease Boeing jets and are facing higher costs.
    About 10 Boeing 737 Max jets are being prepared to join Chinese airlines, and if delivery paperwork and payment on some of them were completed before Chinese ”reciprocal” tariffs came into effect, the planes may be allowed to enter the country, sources told Bloomberg.
    The restriction marks a serious blow for Boeing and other manufacturers trying to navigate the escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.
    The group chief executive of the budget airline Ryanair, Michael O’Leary, has said his company could delay taking deliveries of Boeing aircraft if they become more expensive. He told the Financial Times that Ryanair was due to receive a further 25 aircraft from Boeing from August but would not need the planes until around March or April 2026. “We might delay them and hope that common sense will prevail,” O’Leary said.
    Shares in Boeing have been buffeted by worries about the impact of trade tariffs, as well as complaints from some shareholders that the company has underinvested in its engineering. The company has lost 7% of its market value since the start of the year, and in March its chief financial officer, Brian West, said tariffs could hit availability of parts from its suppliers.
    The rival European plane manufacturer Airbus said on Tuesday that it was watching the evolving situation on trade tariffs. Its chief executive, Guillaume Faury, told shareholders the company was having problems receiving components from the American supplier Spirit AeroSystems, which was weighing on the production of its A350 and A220 jetliners.
    Boeing was approached for comment.

    Comment: Boeing has lost 7% of its market value since the start of the year, with potentially a lot worse to follow. @FD1000 notwithstanding, this would seem to qualify as an investment consideration.
  • China sends back new Boeing jet made too expensive by tariffs
    Following is a current report from The Guardian:
    With estimated $55m price set to balloon by 125%, 737 Max returns to Seattle production hub still wearing the colours of Xiamen Airlines
    A Boeing jet intended for a Chinese airline landed back at the planemaker’s US production hub on Sunday, a victim of the tit-for-tat bilateral tariffs launched by Donald Trump. The 737 MAX, which was meant for China’s Xiamen Airlines, landed at Seattle’s Boeing Field at 6.11pm, according to a Reuters witness. It was painted with Xiamen livery.
    The jet, which made refuelling stops in Guam and Hawaii on its 5,000-mile (8,000-km) return journey, was one of several 737 MAX jets – Boeing’s bestselling model – that had been waiting at Boeing’s Zhoushan completion centre for final work and delivery.Trump this month raised baseline tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. In retaliation, China imposed a 125% tariff on US goods.
    A Chinese airline taking delivery of a Boeing jet could be crippled by the tariffs, given that a new 737 MAX has a market value of around $55m, according to IBA, an aviation consultancy. It was not clear which party made the decision for the aircraft to return to the US. Boeing and Xiamen had not responded to Reuters requests for comment at time of publication.
    Confusion over changing tariffs could leave many aircraft deliveries in limbo, with some airline CEOs saying they would defer delivery of planes rather than pay duties, analysts say.

    Comment: @FD1000 notwithstanding, it is not beyond possibility that if you have an investment in Boeing it might be affected by Trump's idiocy.
  • Don’t Buy "Easy Fix" for Stock-Market Craziness
    "With the stock and bond markets stumbling in unison, investment firms and financial advisers
    are pushing so-called alternative funds harder than ever."

    "Many institutional investors, glutted with private assets, are twiddling their thumbs waiting to get their money out. Private-equity firms are sitting on more than 29,000 companies, valued at $3.6 trillion, that they can’t unload. Returns for many alternatives have stagnated. Why buy what these folks are trying to dump?"
    "Over the 10 years through June 30, 2024, the median endowment earned a 6.7% annualized total return net of fees, according to the 2024 NACUBO-Commonfund Study of Endowments. That was far behind the 12.8% annualized total return of the S&P 500 over the same period—and not much better than an ETF with 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, which grew at 5.9% annually."
    "Many of these institutions have privileged access to the world’s best managers of alternative assets—
    yet barely managed to beat out a boring, dirt-cheap ETF."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/don-t-buy-into-this-easy-fix-for-stock-market-craziness/ar-AA1DbLkK
  • Tariffs
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/04/20/economy/shock-trump-tariffs-world-economy/
    "Three weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump effectively declared a trade war with the entire world, new economic forecasts and surveys will point to the initial fallout. A few blocks from the White House, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is set to lower its outlook for economic growth in new projections released on Tuesday.
    The following day, purchasing manager indexes from Japan to Europe to the U.S. will offer the first coordinated glimpse of manufacturing and services activity since Trump’s global tariffs — now partly on hold — were unleashed on April 2. Business surveys from major economies are also on the calendar.
    The combined picture is set to offer finance ministers and central bankers assembled in Washington a chance to make initial damage assessments on Trump’s attempt to rewire the global trade system.
    Further north..... Retail data for February and a flash estimate for March will reveal whether Canadian consumers pared back their spending for a third straight month amid the trade uncertainty."
  • Bond Opportunities?
    Here's the best bond article I read this weekend.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/high-yield-junk-bonds-9ed6141e?mod=search_headline
    Excerpt:
    The higher spreads split investors “into two camps—head for the hills or this is an incredible buying opportunity,” Fridson tells Barron’s. This “could be the most bifurcated decision many investors will ever face.”
    As noted on other threads we "headed for the hills" a coupla years ago.

    Good article.
    It seems to me that caution is warranted and heroics should be avoided in the current environment.
    I mostly use bonds to diversify equity risk.
    Junk bond exposure is via DOXIX and BBBMX which currently hold ~5% of their assets in high-yield bonds.
  • Bond Opportunities?
    It all depends on why you hold bonds, someone's goals, style and timing.
    VGIT (simple treasury index) made 3.2% this year. Is it bad? Nope.
    CLOZ made about 12% in 2024 with a nice smooth uptrend. Cat bonds made even more.
    There is only one bond fund that performed according to my style in 2025. But, as long as my indicators show high risk, I'm staying out in MM.
    TR matters a lot more than the income/yield. If something pays you 6% income, but yearly TR=2%, then you made only 2%. Something that pays only 4% and made 4% is a better choice.
  • Oakmark International Funds
    Brandes on Top of MFO Fund Families Scorecard Thru March 2025
    image
  • Future High Energy Demands - The Moon as a Data Center
    Microsoft made a significant statement by entering a twenty-year agreement with Constellation Energy, which plans to reopen the Three Mile Island nuclear plant, the site of the 1979 partial nuclear meltdown. Constellation Energy plans to invest $1.6 billion to refurbish and restart the reactor by 2028 with an estimated 835 MW of capacity. Microsoft entered the agreement to provide the energy demands for its AI data centers.
    and
    There is one problem with this: we cannot continue to scale energy usage like this without making the Earth inhospitable to organic life.
    how about the moon:
    we will in just a few short decades be able to deliver payloads of a self-assembling farm of robots to mine the Moon, create chip fabs, build, and ultimately tile the Moon with GPUs. The Moon has a surface area of 14.6 million square miles, roughly the size of Asia. If we very conservatively tiled even half the Moon with GPUs and solar panels, the Moon could sustain a billion times the compute of the Colossus cluster and, with a few turns of Moore’s law driving chip technology forward, even a trillion times the compute.
    https://palladiummag.com/2025/04/18/the-moon-should-be-a-computer/
  • Oil & Gas Industry
    I still don't own E & P. I am in midstream, with 6.44% of portfolio, currently. And ET just lately bought a huge office building in Houston. Are they outgrowing their current Dallas HQ? It certainly must be a BIG slug of money involved. But the price was not published.
    https://realtynewsreport.com/starwood-sells-41-story-skyscraper-to-energy-firm/
    "...But Energy Transfer is no investor wanting to buy low and sell high in a few years. The Dallas-based energy firm, which operates a 130,000-mile pipeline network crisscrossing the nation, is expected to occupy the 5555 San Felipe building for the long-term..."
    I bought a few additional shares at a recent low of $14.99, and it's back up to $17.27 tonight. It is claimed that market oil prices don't matter, but ET owns a stake in Sunoco, which DOES get affected, directly. The divvy is healthy. During covid, it was cut, but I did not own it then. Oil demand may become range-bound or fall with a trade war. But ET is scrambling to keep up with offers to fuel new AI-connected Data Centers, and the Lake Charles facility now has a green light. (LNG.)
  • Bond Opportunities?
    "But for bond investors, starting yields matter much more than historical returns—and the higher the yield,
    the better. Current yields are higher today than they have been for most of the past 15 years."

    "Investors can capture a 6% yield on a mix of taxable bonds, including preferred stock.
    That could provide a nice compliment to stocks, particularly in tax-advantaged accounts such as 401(k)s
    and individual retirement accounts. ......
    When bond share prices fall, yields rise. In the past, I have chosen to ride it down and reinvest the rising yields. But at 70 now, I think my risk tolerance will not permit such a thing anymore. I've created a cash-ballast sleeve, and moved a bunch into higher quality bonds, rather than Junk. "Time to preserve your portfolio," as quoted by someone else in this thread. :)
  • July MFO Ratings & Flows Posted
    Just posted all ratings and flows to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 18 April 2025.
  • Tariffs
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Washington Post:
    As might be expected from our King of Chaos-
    Trump administration: Letter “unauthorized” and should not have been sent.
    On Friday, the New York Times reported that two Trump administration sources said an April 11 letter signed by three federal officials to Harvard president Alan Garber was “unauthorized” and should not have been sent. The letter demanded the Massachusetts university come under government oversight and make changes related to student and faculty conduct, admissions, alleged antisemitism on campus and diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs.
    Harvard on Saturday pushed back on the assertion that the letter was sent in error, pointing out that the Trump administration had “doubled down” on its threats. After Harvard refused to comply with the letter’s demands, the Trump administration froze $2.2 billion in federal funding to the university and threatened to revoke its tax-exempt status.
    “It remains unclear to us exactly what, among the government’s recent words and deeds, were mistakes or what the government actually meant to do and say,” the university said Saturday in a statement to The Washington Post. “But even if the letter was a mistake, the actions the government took this week have real-life consequences on students, patients, employees, and the standing of American higher education in the world.”
    The White House did not respond to requests for comment, but a senior official there told the Times that the administration stood by the letter. White House senior policy strategist May Mailman said the turmoil over Harvard publicly rejecting the administration’s demands was overblown, and she faulted university leaders for not continuing discussions they had been having for weeks with the White House’s antisemitism task force.
  • Bond Opportunities?
    Grade A Corporate Deutsche Bank Aktien 6.15% 04/30/2035 Callable
    Newly issued, no purchase fee, Schwab.
  • Tariffs
    This is reassuring:
    https://www.axios.com/2025/04/19/inside-trump-mindset-tariffs
    The intrigue: Trump keeps such a huge team of advisers because he invariably solicits conflicting opinions. He often suffers from analysis paralysis and can be particularly influenced by whomever he talks with last.
    "We saw it in business with Trump," one adviser said. "He would have these meetings and everyone would agree, and then we would just pray that when he left the office and got on the elevator that the doorman wouldn't share his opinion, because there would be a 50/50 chance [Trump] would suddenly side with the doorman."
  • Gatsby and U.S. Monetary Policy - (Randall Forsyth Column)
    Randall Forsyth writing in Barron’s this week -
    Forsyth mocks a recent government accounting gimmick designed to hide the full extent of the U.S. budget deficit, recalling a famous but ill-fated British effort to cope with a financial problem a century ago: “The 1925 decision to restore the pound’s parity was favored by the City of London establishment, with economist John Maynard Keynes providing a rare dissent because of the damage he correctly anticipated to the British economy. Sterling would be restored as a major international reserve currency, but its global importance, and that of Great Britain, would never regain their former greatness.”
    The article examines how the trade wars may affect U.S. investors - in stocks and bonds alike. Forsyth cites T.S. Lombard’s global head of macro trading who thinks firing Powell would pave the way for a loss of faith in the Dollar as the world’s reserve currency. He also delves into global ship building, relative naval power - and much more.
    In all of this Forsyth finds parallels to Scott Fitzgerald’s 100-year old classic The Great Gatsby
    Opening : ”This April marks the centennials of the publication of F Scott Fitzgerald's masterpiece, The Great Gatsby. On Long Island, the setting for the novel, much has changed. The fictional West Egg, the putatively less prestigious village just over the border from Queens, today is filled with mansions rivaling Gatsby's own along Manhasset Bay. On the bay's other side, in East Egg, where the green light shone at the end of Daisy Buchanan's dock, the few remaining legendary Gold Coast estates now are public museums or village facilities. The former old-money families, including the Guggenheims, Harrimans, and Vanderbilts, have been supplanted by entrepreneur billionaires who founded companies such as Home Depot and Arizona Iced Tea.”
    Closing: ”For now, the parties continue … To paraphrase Fitzgerald, we are careless people, willing to smash things up, including the status of the dollar”.
    Sourced From:U.S. Spending Threatens the Dollar’s Status. Wake Up, America
    By Randall W. Forsyth - Barron’s April 18, 2025
  • Bond Opportunities?
    "But for bond investors, starting yields matter much more than historical returns—and the higher the yield,
    the better. Current yields are higher today than they have been for most of the past 15 years."

    "Investors can capture a 6% yield on a mix of taxable bonds, including preferred stock.
    That could provide a nice compliment to stocks, particularly in tax-advantaged accounts such as 401(k)s
    and individual retirement accounts. Here is a closer look at five fixed-income sectors."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/bonds-are-a-good-bet-again-where-to-find-yields-of-6-or-more/ar-AA1Dcba4
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (04/18/25)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:18 Topics
    00:52 Global Trade Chaos
    06:40 A Self-Inflicted Recession?
    14:50 "The US Doesn't Make Anything Anymore"
    19:35 The Mag 7 Revaluation
    24:07 Are Markets Questioning US Exceptionalism?
    33:02 The Golden Age for Gold
    37:12 House Rich, Cash Rich
    45:49 Transition From Goods to Services
    Video
    Blog
  • Tariffs
    James Stack in his latest update to subscribers today:
    ”Our portfolio remains positive for the year, while the S&P 500 is down -10.2% and the Nasdaq Composite has tumbled -15.7% year-to-date.” - *InvesTech Research
    I read Stack but don’t use his recommended allocations. My own portfolio is also slightly positive for the year with around 40% equities & 10% real-assets.