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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • manufacturing boom
    Fixing it for you:
    Where Trump’s trade war failed, Biden’s incentives have succeeded
    And adding: Mr. Krugman, thank you for including the tune by Larkin Poe. Long time fan here.
  • Income vs Total Return
    Example - VWINX, VWELX, PRWCX, Benchmark VFINX (SP500)
    Terminal Balances PRWCX (highest), SP500, VWELX, VWINX (lowest)
    Intrinsic Income (including CGs) covered the withdrawals.
    3-yr SDs SP500 (highest), PRWCX, VWELX, VWINX (lowest)
    Max Drawdown SP500 (highest), PRWCX, VWELX, VWINX
    Total Return (TWRR) PRWCX, SP500, VWELX, VWINX
    These results were in line with expectations. Note that while PRWCX is often in the moderate-allocation category, it is a capital appreciation fund with the goal to beat the SP500 with less volatility, and it has been successful in that.
    PV run is from 01/1987 (without PRWCX, it could run from 01/1985) PV RUN2
  • Fidelity funds single stock limit waiver
    Here's the proxy for 12 Fidelity funds to become non-diversified. There may be an unrelated 13th fund floating around somewhere.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/35348/000120677423000176/fgf4137113-def14a.htm
    Sometimes, not always, one can get around Bloomberg's paywall by reading Google's cached copy. Bloomberg says that the funds' combined AUM was about $140B as of Nov 30th. So if you're desperate for that 13th fund, check on the other 12's AUM around the end of Nov, subtract from $140B, and then search for a Fidelity fund with that much in assets as of late Nov.
    I'm not that desperate :-)
    Bloomberg also says that the filings were made the week of Dec 1.
  • Fidelity funds single stock limit waiver
    Search MFO for "nondiversified". There are several threads on this topic, especially involving LC-growth. But I didn't find any thread that listed 13 such funds.
  • Fidelity funds single stock limit waiver
    The topic mentioned in the title of this article (behind pay wall) was discussed at MFO.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-08/fidelity-funds-seek-to-make-bigger-bets-on-individual-stocks#xj4y7vzkg
    Can somebody please direct me to that thread? Also, what are the 13 funds that sought the waiver if that list is not mentioned in the MFO discussion / thread.
    My search skills are not adequate for MFO.
    Thank you.
  • Income vs Total Return
    @larryB, you can play with that PV Run template to test other possibilities. Free PV database goes to 1985, so 38 years is the max that you can go back with this type of PV analysis (Paid PV may have longer database). PV also defaults the the shortest common period, so you have to use funds that have all existed for 38+ years (Paid PV will use similar funds to fill the time gaps).
    At some future time, I may add examples of some conservative- (VFINX) and moderate- (VWELX, PRWCX) allocation funds.
    Let us see how this thread develops. I don't want to spend lot of time cranking out numbers if there isn't much interest.
  • Income vs Total Return
    @YBB. Thanks for that contribution. It might be useful to use different components that go back further than 2012. TR sounds great till one is forced to sell low during a prolonged bear market. And Income is challenging in times of Zero interest rates. So it all depends.
  • Income vs Total Return
    Income vs Total Return
    Some want reliable monthly income; others are fine with total return (TR) growth and selling as needed (that may be easier said than done). The TR formula shows that one cannot have high income and high growth:
    %TR = %Dividend_yield + %Dividend_growth + %Change_in_P/D
    For very long-term, the last term has a small contribution, so if dropped, we get the Gordon Equation approximation for multiple years (so, don’t create examples of annual exceptions):
    %TR = %Dividend_yield + %Dividend_growth
    I have seen this debate about income vs TR go on and on for years. My suggestion is for income-oriented posters to assume a fixed monthly/annual withdrawal rate, e.g. 5% annualized (not adjusted for COLA), and then compare the terminal balances using, say, Portfolio Visualizer (PV). In the example below, I will use utilities XLU, CEF PDI, REITs VNQ and VFIAX/SP500; the data will go back to 6/1/12 due to late-05/2012 inception for PDI; also, PV allows only 3 portfolios plus 1 benchmark at a time.
    PV RUN
    All 5% fixed withdrawal programs were successful in that the terminal values > initial values. The best for terminal values were, in order, SP500 (highest), PDI, XLU, VNQ (lowest).
    Intrinsic portfolio income varied, but the withdrawals were full covered by PDI, only sometimes by XLU and VNQ; so often, the withdrawals consisted of intrinsic income plus some principal.
    There were 3 equity funds and 1 leveraged CEF and their volatilities were high. The 3-yr volatility order was VNQ (highest), XLU, SP500, PDI (lowest).
    Max drawdowns were for PDI (highest), VNQ, SP500, XLU (least). That this order was different from that for volatility was a bit surprising.
    What happens to the withdrawn amount doesn’t matter. But it is most likely spent by the income-oriented investor. Some don’t need the income and reinvest it – but in that case, only a straight TR comparison (TWRR) matters, and the order then was SP500, PDI, XLU, VNQ.
    The period under consideration included the Covid pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war.
    As expected, there was no clear conclusion. It boils down to the current needs and volatility tolerance (comfort level) of the investors
    It may be useful to add conservative/moderate-allocation funds into this mix but that is for another time.
  • Owner to give up two of San Francisco’s largest hotels
    Lenders can just have SF Hilton and SF Park 55. Park Hotels/PK doesn't want to carry them at loss. It's just business - no shame in doing this, and it doesn't matter what company owns which kind of properties.. As posted elsewhere, Blackstone/BX did this for some properties it owned.
    Press Release https://finance.yahoo.com/news/park-hotels-resorts-inc-announces-103000887.html
  • Owner to give up two of San Francisco’s largest hotels
    Following is a current report from the San Francisco Chronicle. Anyone holding investments in real estate might want to take notice.
    Park Hotels & Resorts, the owner of two of San Francisco’s biggest hotels — Hilton San Francisco Union Square and Parc 55 — has stopped mortgage payments and plans to give up the two properties, in another sign of disinvestment in hard-hit downtown.
    Park Hotels & Resorts said Monday that it stopped making payments on a $725 million loan due in November and expects the “ultimate removal of these hotels” from its portfolio. The company said it would “work in good faith with the loan’s servicers to determine the most effective path forward.”
    The 1,921-room Hilton is the city’s largest hotel and the 1,024-room Parc 55 is the fourth-largest, and together they account for around 9% of the city’s hotel stock. The hotels could potentially be taken over by lenders or sold to a new group as part of the foreclosure process.
    “After much thought and consideration, we believe it is in the best interest for Park’s stockholders to materially reduce our current exposure to the San Francisco market. Now more than ever, we believe San Francisco’s path to recovery remains clouded and elongated by major challenges — both old and new,” said Thomas Baltimore Jr., CEO of Park Hotels, in a statement.
    Those challenges include a record high office vacancy of around 30%, concerns over street conditions, a lower rate of return to office compared to other cities and “a weaker than expected citywide convention calendar through 2027 that will negatively impact business and leisure demand,” he said.
    Park Hotels said San Francisco's convention-driven demand is expected to be 40% lower between 2023 and 2027 compared to the pre-pandemic average.
    San Francisco Travel, the city’s convention bureau, expects Moscone Center conventions to account for over 670,000 hotel room nights this year, higher than 2018’s 660,868 room nights but far below 2019’s record-high 967,956. And weaker convention attendance is projected for each following year through 2030.
    Tourism spending more than doubled in 2022 to $7.4 billion compared to the previous year. A full recovery isn’t expected until 2024 or 2025.
    The company expects to save over $200 million in capital expenditures over the next five years after giving up the hotels, and to issue a special dividend to shareholders of $150 million to $175 million. The company's exposure will shift away from San Francisco towards the higher-growth Hawaii market.
    Parc 55 is a block from Westfield San Francisco Centre, the mall where Nordstrom is departing, and the block where Banko Brown, an alleged shoplifter, was killed in a shooting outside a Walgreens in April. Nearby blocks are also full of empty storefronts, as tourist and local foot traffic hasn’t fully recovered.
    Other hotels have faced financial distress. Atop Nob Hill, the historic Huntington Hotel was sold earlier this year after a mortgage default.
  • California Insurance Coverage: First- State Farm, now Allstate also quits California
    Maricopa County (Phoenix) is number 1 with a bullet for heat.
    Rhodium Group researchers estimate that under the RCP 8.5 scenario, between 2040 and 2060 extreme temperatures will become commonplace in the South and Southwest, with some counties in Arizona experiencing temperatures above 95 degrees for half the year.
    ...
    By midcentury, ... some areas we don't usually think of as humid, like southwestern Arizona, will see soaring wet bulb temperatures because of factors like sun angle, wind speed and cloud cover reacting to high temperatures ...
    https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/
  • Sam Zell, RIP
    Love the John Oliver form of investigative journalism. On the subject of housing dystopia, his HOA show is just as incisive and darkly humorous. HOAs, Last Week Tonight.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    LOL. Wouldn't take much to get me out of FFRHX. No tax losses to realize in the IRA.
    Feels like last week was the first time it was in the black since I purchased on 12/7/2018.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    @Sven, one indication of breadth is % of stocks above 50-dMA. On Wednesday, that was only 30.00% (low), but on Friday, it was 52.40% (OK). So, you may want to look at your favorite breadth measures again post-debt-ceiling.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p31929595409
  • California Insurance Coverage: First- State Farm, now Allstate also quits California
    Homeowners may choose to simply go bare.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna17692537
    That has long been the pattern with one natural disaster, earthquakes:
    The top three markets in the country — California, Washington and Missouri — highlight how unprepared the nation is.
    • Despite experiencing 90% of the country’s earthquakes, only 10% of California’s residents have earthquake insurance.
    • Only 11.3% of Washington’s residents were covered in 2017 despite having the second-largest market in the seismic space.
    • Missouri’s New Madrid area is a lesson in what skyrocketing premiums can do to the insurance market. In 2000, 60% of its residents had coverage. As of 2021, that number has declined to 11.4%.
    https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/risk-management/earthquake/insurance
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    @WABAC, what is the best way to invest in US floating rate treasury bills?
    2 yrs FR bills are auction only 4 times a year. iShares floating rate bond ETF, FLOT, has a 0.15% ER with a 30 days SEC yield, 5.75%.
    https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/quote/dashboard/summary?symbol=FLOT
    The 1, 3 and 5 years total returns are ~2.5% due to the low interest rate.
    I tend to invest in T bills (less than one year), and ST- and IT-treasury bond funds.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    The S&P 500 has been generally climbing since October or 8 months ago. Month ending data only has us still 2% shy of new bull market. But if you include MTD, the S&P is up 21%. Yay!