nov 18th, '22.

Kessler: Nov. 18, '22.

@rforno- Since you had steak for dinner it would seem to suggest that you didn't have a lot of money "invested" in this silliness.

In 2021 I setup an account w/Gemini in NYC due to how heavily regulated it was and low-key. They didn't sponsor NBA teams, run TV ads, or get stadium naming rights. I dabbled in some active-trading of BTC for a bit to see how it compared to futures trading back in the day, and then I parked $50K in their Earn product to get 8.05% interest. In early May of this year, when its interest rate dropped to 6.5% as rumors started swirling about 3AC, I started getting weird vibes in my Spidey-Sense and withdrew everything into (insured) cash in the account. Finally, I pulled 99% of it out to help pay for 2 bathroom renovations that just wrapped up -- but I am keeping the account open for possible future use....I think Gemini will be one of the few folks that survive this stuff given their fairly conservative approach to crypto investing, regulation, and stability. But for now, apart from a tiny slice of BTC that wsa part of my sign-up bonus with them, I hold no crypto assets.
Bottom line, I took away a modest amount in profits/intrerest for that initial forray into crypto, but the money was far better spent on home improvements -- plus that 'fun' fund (money i could 'afford' to lose speculating, not my life's savings) and some extra $$ coming in from work meant I didn't need to dip into other investments to pay for it, so double-win. It's the same approach I used years ago when I closed my active futures trading account and used the proceeds to pay cash for a new German car. :)
As to getting in/out of crypto lending: the lessons of the GFC about doing deep due diligence about counterparty risk controls, transparency, and listening to my risk-aware gut feelings paid off for me in several ways. I knew it was risky[1] going in ..... but a lot of people drank the kool-aid, bought into the hype, threw caution to the wind, had TONS of money in these types of products across many often less-risk-oriented ompanies (3AC, Voyager, Celsius, and now FTX), only saw profits but never considered the risks, both obvious and quite possible --- and in the end either lost it all, only retrieved some of it, or are waiting for the outcome of investigations/litigation to be made semi-whole again if even possible.
[1] I viewed crypto-lending's risk profile akin to junk bonds -- it was an either/or outcome about getting my money back on that speculatative position in my portfolio.

Not sure these are good ideas
I am also not CPA NOR tax expert
What about creating LLC and defined benefits distribution (if you have small business only family memebers up maxinum tax deferred ~ 250k per yr for husband and 250k for wifey) then roll over to this acct.... Don't really need to sale since may expect rebounds in 12-36 months.
If you don't need these monies then Hold until 64.5 yo. My old advisor from Edward Jones told me to roll it to retirement acct and control your yearly Rmd Outputs once 64.5 yo, take only what you need for living and travel (If you don't need monies then leave it until 64.5 yo) ... Everything is probably paperloss for now if you don't sale. Tax expected very little this year because most portfolio are 20-40% down (unless you are Michael Burry and gained so much this yr w short term trading)
Other options maybe Give to kiddos family think max life time gifts 11 millions limited tax paid but need filed by cpa (know Irs loopholes) but maybe lots headaches + hefty fees
Pls consult w tax advisor and financial advisor before taking actions and play w turbo tax first before choosing wisely.

The inverted yield curve from M* above, and it is getting more steep in November.

Good M* analysis.
The YIELD-CURVE is mostly inverted (2y-10y, 3m-30y, etc) but what really matters is the short end that Powell is watching, 3m-18m and/or 3m-3m18mforward spread; these are unusual spreads but close is the readily available 3m-2y spread that didn't invert yet.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST2Y-$UST3M&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26635956684

I am very sure that only short term loss can offset short term gain. Same goes for long term gain and loss.
The long term capital gains tax rate is 0%, 15% or 20% on most assets held for longer than a year. Short term capital gains taxes on assets held for a year or less correspond to ordinary income tax brackets: 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% or 37%.

This is what other people tell me as well. Yet schedule D and its instructions seem to indicate otherwise and so do some fairly reliable websites. Here is one quote from kiplinger.com:
"Netting Rules. If you have a mix of short- and long-term capital gains and losses, you need to understand the order in which losses offset gains. First, short-term losses are used to offset short-term gains, and long-term losses are used to offset long-term gains. Then, if there are any losses remaining, they can be used to offset the opposite type of gain."
Elsewhere it is made clear that there is a $3000 yearly limit (married filing jointly) to what can be deducted per year from capital gains.

I am very sure that only short term loss can offset short term gain. Same goes for long term gain and loss.
The long term capital gains tax rate is 0%, 15% or 20% on most assets held for longer than a year. Short term capital gains taxes on assets held for a year or less correspond to ordinary income tax brackets: 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% or 37%.

Hi sir @Catch22
CUSIP 34540TB76
S&P rating BB+
We been holding Ford bonds. And bought more at time since 2011
The one you mentioned matures 2040s also look good

I'll add this from a 2019 post. A lot to chew, is you're curious. Link in the word "post" below.
From my March, 2019 post regarding yield curve perspective from Campbell Harvey, Duke University, which includes several study links.

Digital Currency Group owns Genesis and Grayscale Investments (ie, GBTC). Per Reuters, they just tried to get a $1 billion loan to help them deal with a "liquidity crunch due to certain illiquid assets on its balance sheet" at Genesis (ie, FTX). I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole anytime soon...given the crypto winter this past few months, you can bet everything is connected to everything else in these big crypto firms.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/crypto-lender-genesis-had-sought-emergency-loan-1-billion-wsj-2022-11-17/
Edit: late Friday night...
"Cryptocurrency investment product provider Grayscale Investments has refused to provide on-chain proof of reserves or wallet addresses to show the underlying assets of its digital currency products citing “security concerns.”
https://cointelegraph.com/news/grayscale-cites-security-concerns-for-withholding-on-chain-proof-of-reserves
Something smells fishy here, but I had steak for dinner...

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1083387/000089418922008434/kmfliquidationsupplement11.htm
Target funds:
Kinetics Medical Fund
Kinetics Alternative Income Fund
Kinetics Multi-Disciplinary Income Fund

Good article: https://morningstar.com/articles/1125971/the-us-treasury-yield-curve-recession-indicator-is-flashing-red

@johnN
This one ?

Yup. I would not go there. Not with a 10-foot Pole or even a 12-foot Swede.

Vanguard Msg: A buy order for $10,000.00 of FORD MOTOR CREDIT CO LLC CREDI in account ending in *** executed at $100.28. Reply STOP to cancel txt msgs
YTM 7.4%
Bettet than cd

@Anna, Facebook, Twitter, etc use AI to learn from your clicks and from Likes/Follows for news sources/pages and people. Same with Google News - I can see that on identical PCs that my wife and I have and those are offered quite different Google News (based on our search histories).
By the way, these discussion boards were the earliest social-media (version 0.0?). Kids are now growing up with smartphone and social-media. BTW, my granddaughter says that Facebook and Twitter are so yesterday.
We didn't even keep our 1st cell phone - that went first to our daughter decades ago when she had just learned driving; it had only local coverage. WE borrowed her phone when we went for long or late drives. Things are different now with kids 3-5 watching YouTube and swiping screens - even before they can talk much.

While I'm not particularly fond of social media platforms, I do think not being on one will ultimately be like not having a phone when it became popular, or Internet connectivity itself, or if you went back far enough, not reading novels because they were "bad for you" in the 18th and 19th centuries. Social media has reached, unfortunately from an older perspective, critical mass. I can just imagine in olden days people complaining about the "waste of time" and nonsense people talked about on the phone, and didn't we once talk that nonsense?

@royal4 et al
Would be a bit strange to not allow Ukraine officials to be part of the investigation and/or the forensics of the site.
Numerous articles here about this topic. The articles listed from various sources have some conflict in their reporting, too.