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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Policy Financial Implications
    Observant1:
    Anyway, can you please focus on the potential economic/investing impacts
    of current policies as stated in the OP?
    You already answered it
    We are in total agreement regarding your second point.
    Portfolios should be constructed with an asset allocation tailored to an investor's goals
    and subsequent trading should be minimized.
    It's truly refreshing when you reference evidence-based investing for a change!
    Now, if you think that Trump is deranged and chaos is everywhere, why not sell everything?
    It's not a secret that I'm not a B&H investor. I invest based on current markets, not any prez or politics. If it's not reflected in the price and charts, I don't do anything.
    So, if you guys are serious and want to discuss what you are actually doing with your portfolios, then it belongs in the investment forum.
    All I see is political discussion. Look back at this thread and tell me where you discussed your portfolio. From the 3rd post it's about bashing the prez.
    Basically, there are 5-7 posters that turn this site into a political rant in many threads. I participate in several investment sites and this is the only one that keeps doing it and this site used to be one of the best.
  • Policy Financial Implications
    The US has the exorbitant privilege of the dollar being the world's reserve currency.
    No other currency in history has been so globally dominant.
    Foreign exchange reserves are most often denominated in US dollars.
    Three quarters of global trade and 85% of all currency swaps involve dollars.
    Recent policy actions have incentivized governments, central banks,
    and financial institutions to question their dependence on the dollar.
    Podcast
  • Policy Financial Implications
    [snip]
    TDS is a major lib illness.
    What can you do now
    1) stop reading the same sources that claim the US is close to destruction.
    2) most investors should hold their asset allocation according to their goals and hardly trade.

    Trump Denial Syndrome is a major MAGA malady.
    What is a proven remedy for this toxic disease?
    1) Extricate yourself from right-wing media echo chambers (e.g., Fox News) and seek actual facts.
    Using Media Bias / Fact Check as a reference, the following article lists reliable news sources
    to help facilitate your search for the TRUTH.
    https://www.skepticallibrarian.com/2024/07/25/most-reliable-news-sources/
    We are in total agreement regarding your second point.
    Portfolios should be constructed with an asset allocation tailored to an investor's goals
    and subsequent trading should be minimized.
    It's truly refreshing when you reference evidence-based investing for a change!
    Anyway, can you please focus on the potential economic/investing impacts
    of current policies as stated in the OP?
  • FPA Crescent fund‘s - Steve Romick on M*
    @larryB - I get it. I used to ignore active funds; then funds with er’s over .5%. Now in retirement I find I want an active fund manager(s) to conservatively manage a part of my investment. FPACX’s data is compelling:
    - ~60% in equity (Domestic & International) even though our portfolio only holds 35% in equity
    - all 3 managers eating their cooking to the tune of $1m+
    - 5-yr upside/downside capture ratio 116/81 (pretty good blood pressure)
    - top ranked returns 3 of last 4 years.
    - and cash right now paying over 4%, I like that they’re looking to invest in their best ideas.
    So for now, I’m looking to continue investing here.
  • CLO Troubles
    @Level5,
    RCTIX portfolio managers have really decreased CLO exposure.
    Prior RCTIX Fact Sheets showed the following CLO allocations.
    The February 2022 Fact Sheet is the latest one in my possession
    since I exited the fund after George Jikovski left abruptly in 2022.
    12/31/2019: 30%
    06/30/2020: 14%
    12/31/2020: 8%
    06/30/2021: 11%
    12/31/2021: 18%
    02/28/2022: 15%
  • CLO Troubles
    @yogibearbull
    Thank for sharing this CLO information.
    In recent years, I considered investing in a dedicated CLO fund¹.
    CLO funds with high credit ratings offered greater yields than other bond funds with similar credit ratings.
    Default risk was said to be low and apparently there were zero defaults for the nearly 7,000 AAA-rated
    CLO debt tranches issued between 1993 and 2022.
    The fact that the vast majority of CLO ETFs (13/16) were in existence for less than 3 years (inception dates listed below) gave me pause. Six CLO ETFs were introduced while the Fed was hiking interest rates
    from March 2022 - July 2023. Since CLOs are floating-rate instruments, rate hikes are obviously advantageous.
    It wasn't clear to me how CLO ETFs would react during certain less favorable market environments.
    AAA (09/08/2020)
    JAAA (10/16/2020)
    JBBB (01/11/2022)
    CLOI (06/21/2022)
    ICLO (12/09/2022)
    CLOA (01/10/2023)
    CLOZ (01/23/2023)
    CLOX (07/18/2023)
    PAAA (07/19/2023)
    PSQA (09/11/2024)
    ACLO (11/15/2024)
    PCLO (12/02/2024)
    PCMM (12/02/2024)
    NCLO (12/10/2024)
    CLOB (12/24/2024)
    BCLO (01/19/2025)
    ¹ For several years I owned RCTIX which often had a sizable allocation to CLOs.
  • CLO Troubles
    Thanks for the article. I did not know why but after I held CLOs for over 1.5 years, I sold it several weeks ago because the price started going down.
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    "Carney, Canada’s Prime Minister, wasn’t just sitting in Ottawa twiddling his thumbs. He’d been quietly increasing Canada’s holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds—over $350 billion worth by early 2025, part of the $8.53 trillion foreign countries hold in U.S. debt."
    Carney's term as Canadian PM started only on 3/14/25.
    Sure, he has connections as the former B.O.C and B.O.E Governor, but above seems a wild speculation.
    But something strange is going on. Typically, when stocks fall, there is flight-to-safety into Treasuries and Treasury yields go down. But that isn't happening lately, so someone is selling lots of Treasuries to spoil the flight-to-safety phenomenon. Moreover, some flight-to-safety has been into German and Japanese bonds.
  • Oakmark International Funds
    Michael Manelli, a comanager on OAKIX and OAKEX, will retire at year's end.
    The following notes for OAKEX are from Morningstar Fund Investor (April 2025).
    Our Take: Manelli is leaving unexpectedly in the prime of his career,
    and his experience and investment acumen will surely be missed by the firm.
    Manelli’s departure disrupts what was a clear succession plan for renowned investor David Herro.
    Although Herro remains a comanager, he had delegated significant responsibilities here to Manelli and comanager Justin Hance, who will now take on an expanded role. Hance’s presence provides continuity:
    He’s been with the firm since 2010, has 18 years of experience, and has been a comanager here since 2016.
    Like Manelli, Hance has proved to be a savvy small/mid-cap investor under Herro’s mentorship and invests heavily in the offering.
  • 3 more Matthews Portfolio Managers exit
    Just read the following short note about Matthews China Fund in M* Fund Investor (April 2025).
    Matthews Asia dismissed five additional portfolio managers along with two analysts earlier this year.
    Matthews China recently lost one of its comanagers amid yet another flurry of investment-team departures
    at the firm.
    Our Take: Investment team turnover has long been a serious problem at Matthews,
    and the firm dismissed five more portfolio managers and two more analysts earlier this year,
    including Hardy Zhu, who was serving as a comanager on this and two other strategies.
    Zhu only became a comanager on the three strategies in April 2024,
    but he had worked as a China analyst at the firm for 14 years, so his departure is significant.
    Moreover, Matthews has lost 13 portfolio managers and four analysts in total during the past 2.5 years. (The firm also added one portfolio manager and one analyst during the period.)
    We lowered the People rating to Average and the Morningstar Medalist Rating to Neutral.
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    @Crash,

    "Snopes has yet to confirm that Carney orchestrated a U.S. Treasurys sell-off in closed-door meetings
    with European and Japanese leaders. We contacted Blundell to ask how he first came upon the information
    he relayed in his newsletter. We will update this report should he respond."

    https://www.snopes.com/news/2025/04/11/canada-mark-carney-treasurys-sell-off/
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    AND, for today only; although you've probably already looked. Decent gains in light of recent events.
    --- AGG = +.57% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.05% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.22% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEF = +.80% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.48% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- TLT = +.71% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- BAGIX = +.62% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = +.61% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- HYG = +.50% (I Shares High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    Treasury holdings again, in billions; as of January, 2025.
    Source: U.S. Treasury
    LINK:
    Canada and Treasuries are in this article.
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    For those who don’t know, this is how it is done. DT was backed into a corner and had no choice. He was beaten.
    "Let’s talk about the moment Donald Trump blinked. It wasn’t loud. It wasn’t a tweetstorm or a rally rant. When the tariff threats that had the world on edge — 125% on China, 25% on Canada’s autos, a global trade war in the making — suddenly softened. A 'pause,' he called it. A complete turnaround from the chest-thumping of the past week. And the reason? Mark Carney and a slow, deliberate financial maneuver that most people didn’t even notice: the coordinated Treasury bond slow bleed.
    This wasn’t about bravado. It was about leverage. Cold, calculated, and devastatingly effective.
    Trump’s pause wasn’t because people were getting yippy…
    Rewind a bit. While Trump was gearing up his trade war machine, Carney, Canada’s Prime Minister, wasn’t just sitting in Ottawa twiddling his thumbs. He’d been quietly increasing Canada’s holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds—over $350 billion worth by early 2025, part of the $8.53 trillion foreign countries hold in U.S. debt. On the surface, it looked like a safe play, a hedge against economic chaos. But it wasn’t just defense. It was a loaded gun.
    Carney didn’t stop there. He took his case to Europe. Not for photo ops, but for closed-door meetings with the EU’s heavy hitters — Germany, France, the Netherlands. Japan was in the room too, listening closely. The pitch was simple: if Trump went too far with tariffs, Canada wouldn’t just retaliate with duties on American cars or steel. It would start offloading those Treasury bonds. Not a fire sale — nothing so crude. A slow, steady bleed. A signal to the markets that the U.S. dollar’s perch wasn’t so secure.
    ---Dean Blundell, Canadian radio host. Some might say, "shock-jock." But even a broken clock is correct, twice per day.
  • Tariffs
    It looks like Trump did China and BYD, a company producing electric cars, a solid. Tesla used to sell most of their cars in the USA, (232,400 from Jan-May in 2024) and China (219,056, same timeframe). Now that nobody will be able to buy Teslas in China, BYD is taking off like a rocket. Their stock is soaring. Elon Musk should personally thank his leader for the thoughtful gift. Combine that will sinking sales, Tesla is in the doghouse. Biden already had a 100% tariff on these cars, so nobody is buying them in the US. They are selling them in Europe.
  • Tariffs

    Democrats Shouldn’t Support Tariffs
    Nor should anyone else really. If nothing else at least scroll down to the SM post from Joey Politano.
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    @Sven said,
    I understand that iPhones have very high profit margins
    I looked into Apple's "economic footprint" and discovered that Apple exceeds the government revenues of Switzerland, Norway and Russia. Only 9 countries are larger economic entities than Walmart.
    image
    Many of the top 25 economic entities are Corporations, not Countries.
    image
    Here are a couple of articles for food for thought when it comes to the economic significance of individual countries and individual global corporations. Few have mentioned that these exemptions and tariffs have a huge impact on many global corporations. These global corporations have a different kind of allegiance than do countries. Corporate goals are aligned more closely with shareholders demands than the messy needs of countryman's.
    Because their goal don't always align, Corporations operate as odd bed fellows in the Countries they do business as well as the countries they sell to.
    Countries vs Corporations - Comparing Economic Entities
    corporations-not-countries-dominate-the-list-of-the-world-s-biggest-economic-entities/
    Global Manufacturing:
    global-manufacturing-scorecard-how-the-us-compares-to-18-other-nations